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At 6.1%, GDP Growth Trails Forecast For First Three Months Of The Year

Discussion in 'National Politics' started by Sancho, May 31, 2017.

  1. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/economy-grows-at-6-1-in-march-quarter-7-1-in-2016-17-1706297
     
  2. Indian Jatt

    Indian Jatt Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I hope it catches up soon, as we cannot afford such a slow rate, even 7% can be considered low, for how much we have to cover up.....at this pace it will take india 15 years.....
     
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  3. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    The problem is, that this is a self inflicted slow down, that puts us even behind China again. If the government at least would have get what they wanted with the ban, it might be justifiable, but it doesn't look that way.
    Also important that the government has denied a slow down because of the note ban before and changed methods to show higher growth. The same was done some years ago, to artificially increase the GDP on paper and that's a matter of concern, if statistics will openly be changed, to mislead the public.
     
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  4. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    fking demonetization. Kya ukhad liya. The big looters are still roaming scot-free. Interest rates are reduced and those who had a bit of their hard earned cash at home were forced to put it in the bank to make it look as if the whole deal has worked out. aur nacho gaai ke saath.
     
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  5. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    http://www.livemint.com/Politics/R0...down-GDP-decline-says-several-factors-re.html

    =>

    http://www.news18.com/news/india/gd...git-growth-soon-says-arun-jaitley-969983.html
     
  6. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Too much hullabaloo over this.

    Estimated = (7.9+7.5+7+7.1)/4 = 7.4%.
    Revised = (7.9+7.5+7+6.1)/4 = 7.1%.

    Before demonetization, we were headed towards another recession. We had to recapitalize banks or we were f*cked.

    In exchange, now we have tremendous growth prospects.
     
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  7. Zen0

    Zen0 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    The average is still over 7 , its i was expecting it to be 5-6 or something .
     
  8. Bloom 17

    Bloom 17 2nd Lieutant IDF NewBie

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    One of the main reasons for demonetization was to press reset switch for commercial banks. And it worked wonderfully. After 2008 housing bubble recession only two countries were growing, India and China. India didn't get effected that badly because Indians culturally had stashed savings to live off the recession. China on the other hand went with giving banks a free hand to issue bad loans to construction industry which lead china to build infrastructure that wasn't needed (ghost cities) to keep themselves employed. Considering china a communist black hole it got away with writing of its own debt and is still suffering to this date. If India would had done the same it would have collapsed by 2012.
    For India to have a similar growth like china did after 2008 it has to give banks a free hand to loan infrastructure and other industries but make sure they don't give out more than they could. That's were demonization comes in. It helped fill the commercial bank coffers so the banks came actually loan money they have rather than imaginary numbers.
    Everything else like terrorism and Blackmoney is something to mold public sentiment to avoid chaos. There are two ways to win a race, either you come first or make sure no one else will come first. Indians by nature prefer the second option. Modi just used it to justify demonetization :fighting1:
     
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  9. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    That's trash. Indian banking sector has always been robust and solid irrespective of what's thrown at it. This is an excuse. Indians always have a traditional cautious mindset when it comes to spending and our large population+consumer based economy absorbed the impact of the global slowdown. If oil prices were 145 $ a barrel we would have all been fuked.
     
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  10. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Can someone shed light on the GDP formula that has been allegedly tweaked?
     
  11. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Most people would have converted it into property overseas accounts and gold. Only fools would have stowed away hard currency. They got hold of a few of these idiots and claimed that demonetization was a success. In a small CNC machining facility I previously interned it, half the workers lost their jobs and the owner is still running in losses inspite of being fair and honest with his transactions. I don't know what kind of parallel universe y'all exist in, but small industries were knocked clean off their feet. Reforms in banks and digitization was good enough to stiffle out illegal transactions. The only good that came out of it was decline in human trafficking.
     
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  12. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    This wasn't about black money, it was about recapitalizing banks, controlling inflation and getting hold of big taxpayers.

    The only way he is running at a loss is because of two things.
    One: He used cash because he was using off the books accounting that you do not know of.
    Two: He paid his workers less than minimum wages.

    If he really wanted to keep his business alive, he should have called a bank agent, opened free accounts for everyone he employed and transferred wages directly into their accounts. Opening a SB account is free, even better if he gets salary accounts.

    But of course, he wouldn't be able to do that if he was doing either Points One or Two.

    Many small scale businesses I know of continued running fine. It's because they were clean.
     
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  13. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Gentleman, that's your warped perception. I am an engineer and I started off by interning in these small firms to gain some experience . None of them work like big MNCs where there have a system in place to document every small detail . Because their volumes are small, it is difficult to cut out profitable margins . I also interned in a tooth brush manufacturing company - 2 machines running 24x7. We pay about 15-20 rs for a tooth brush from the medical store, but the manufacturer used to sell them for rs 2. He had to make at least 1000 a day to make decent profit to pay 6 employees and cover overheads. He lost all his orders during demonitization and his workers too went jobless+unpaid for 3 months straight. If you earn 40-50k a month it's fine, but for those who do small jobs and make 5-8 k a month, its savage. If you've never been there , you will never know.
     
  14. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    He is not wrong, the banking sector was robust, because it was largely in state hand. Western countries kept criticising MMS for not privatising and deregulation the sector, but that was at the end the key why India banks were not effected, since they couldn't freely speculate as their counterparts in the world.
    That and the right economic policies gave India a credible growth compared to the rest of the world, but the Indian public didn't understand what global recession meant and wanted double digit growth.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
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  15. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Yeah, I'm talking about those people, low salaries.

    Many industries adapted. They quickly setup accounts for their employees and continued their business with cheques and DDs. And then switched to NEFT. It pushed them into the formal sector.

    Your friend with the toothbrush unit was obviously in full control of his business. He should have helped his workers get accounts and then given them cheques instead of cash. Hell, they were just 6 people, and setting up accounts is free.

    I suppose it was his client who did not adapt. But that was the problem. Someone in the chain wasn't doing his job legally, so couldn't adapt.

    Basically, the ones who were legal continued functioning, the ones who were not suffered. And everybody linked to the chain suffered, it was a domino effect.

    Regardless, if demonetization wasn't done, India was headed towards a recession anyway. It is among the first major crisis evading moves ever done. So these guys would have lost their business for a year or two instead of just a few months.
     
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