Dismiss Notice
Welcome to IDF- Indian Defence Forum , register for free to join this friendly community of defence enthusiastic from around the world. Make your opinion heard and appreciated.

Bad news for Modi-baiters: Not China, India to be world’s fastest growing economy in 2017

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by Ankit Kumar 001, Jan 17, 2017.

  1. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2016
    Messages:
    1,077
    Likes Received:
    1,591
    Country Flag:
    India
    No, that would not happen. If OPEC stops, they would be invaded and subjugated overnight. The one with stronger army has a veto power.
     
  2. Ghanta

    Ghanta 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2016
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    153
    Country Flag:
    India
    You can't be at a lot of countries at once and OPEC countries are flung out in 3 continents...And Afghanistan would be a picnic compared to Saudi and Venezuela.. And even for sustained invasion you would require $ which would be worthless by then..So how do you pay the bills!!
    Yeah, they might be able to attack the gulf but they wont be able to sustain it.
     
  3. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2016
    Messages:
    1,077
    Likes Received:
    1,591
    Country Flag:
    India

    As long as you have MIC which manufactures weapon in house, you do not need dollars to fight war. And I do not think that Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti, and Iraqis would put better fight than Afghans.
     
    lca-fan likes this.
  4. Ghanta

    Ghanta 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2016
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    153
    Country Flag:
    India
    You can't be at a lot of countries at once...And Afghanistan would be a picnic compared to Saudi and Venezuela.. And even for sustained invasion you would require $ which would be worthless by then..So how do you pay the bills!!
    Regarding India helping Iran and US, I am pretty sure India had nothing to do with it. If things had gone south, India would have been taking the blame and that would be disastrous for our foreign policy with regards to Israel and Arab countries.

    And Russia in syria is for 2 reasons:
    1. Protect its syrian naval base in latakia. To do so keep assad in power.
    2. Stop Qatar gas from going through syria towards Europe. Thereby still tightly control European energy needs.(This was what CIA and MI6 created ISIS for)

    ISIS is just an amazing opportunity that landed on Russian doorstep in order to achieve its goals.
     
  5. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    2,306
    Likes Received:
    4,632
    Country Flag:
    India
    Please read my previous post. US takes preemptive steps they don't wait for all that to happen. See what is happening in middle east, US has destroyed regimes who are opposing them, Syria, Libya, Iraq, etc. They made peace with Iran with help of India as they know they can't fight with them and a tacit support for their nuclear program to ensure Iran doesn't go China's way. US will not shy from even initiating world war 3 if it sees threat to its Dollar. Tension between US and Russia is because of all these things. You just can't undermine US and dollar.
     
  6. Ghanta

    Ghanta 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2016
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    153
    Country Flag:
    India
    It all comes back to money. Even if you have in-house capabilities you have got to pay for your employees. If $ becomes worthless overnight would you be still working or would you be scavenging for food and water? This is the reason I believe you can't sustain a war with runaway inflation.

    US will have to take out countries one at a time to achieve this goal. Else, the price of Oil will skyrocket if it goes all in on preemptive war. Remember arab oil embargo in early 70's which pushed the oil prices to unimaginable heights. Unless US is looking at MAD it will not happen. And in this instance a costly oil would "make $ worthless again" since there will be no one to buy the dollars. And when there is no one your liabilities in $20 trillion+ will start biting you.
    And you are also thinking China will sit quietly during this; which will not happen since china needs cheap oil to survive.
     
  7. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    2,306
    Likes Received:
    4,632
    Country Flag:
    India
    A few points I missed: All this debt (money) has been given by Chinese banks which have got their money from Chinese people who have very high savings rate of 45%. Since this debt is no longer serviceable Chinese banks are vulnerable, their entire financial sector is house of card which may fall any moment. The Chinese govt is on money printing spree and since yuan is not a Petro currency it will see huge devaluation like Venezuela and Zimbabwe bringing down the country's GDP drastically.

    Rich Chinese people are leaving country in droves taking along with them their money through Hawala system just like India. See their Forex reserve is falling every month hitting new lows. US behind scenes and now under Trump will openly push China towards financial mayhem. China's downfall will not only cause trouble to China but to entire world even US economy will get hurt and so will ours too, but if China has to be contained it is the only option left.
     
    A_poster likes this.
  8. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    2,306
    Likes Received:
    4,632
    Country Flag:
    India
    It is exactly what US is doing, US made peace with Iran with which it can't fight right now but earlier Iraq under saddam and now Libya and Syria are being finished and mind you others (Saudi, UAE, Jordan Quatar) are watching their fate and so no one would like to make their country a living hell. US is like typical Hindi cinema GOONDA who extort money and no dares to speak or do anything against him and anyone trying to be smart is finished off.
     
    A_poster likes this.
  9. Ghanta

    Ghanta 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2016
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    153
    Country Flag:
    India
    One thing I always hate is that media and people saying that 6-7% is very bad. Especially when they compare it to chinese highs of 14% and our own highs of 10% during MMS. Yeah! it might be low but in an economic race it is always good be a tortoise than be a hare.
    When you be a hare you will have to sacrifice a lot of strong economic principles which will eventually come and bite us. So better be a tortoise and follow all the basic principles of economics so that your economy still stands strong.
    It might take long, but the end result will be good.
     
    A_poster, Abingdonboy and lca-fan like this.
  10. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2016
    Messages:
    1,077
    Likes Received:
    1,591
    Country Flag:
    India
    No, you can finance a war even with runaway inflation. MIC is only industry that is independent of law of economics as it could take by force what it wants, rather than follow law of demand and supply.

    $ are worthless piece of paper even today. It is the contract of US government to ensure that you are paid equivalent goods and services as that paper state is what carries the value. Even in case of a hyperinflation, if you are a MIC employee and you do not fight war and produce weapon, what would you do? Could you instantly find a piece of land and start farming? If you are a farmer, what would you do? Stop producing food!

    Some sectors of economy are inflation proof. Farming is one of them, so is MIC. People would be more than willing to go on war for improving their economic condition than drop the ball and go scavanging. War ,afterall, is not fought by dollars, but hardware that dollar buy, and if value of dollar collapse, value of that hardware in your internal market too, as MIC would be willing to give it to give it practically for free/food. This is how Germany was able to manufacture weapons uptil the end of WWII.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2017
    lca-fan likes this.
  11. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2016
    Messages:
    1,077
    Likes Received:
    1,591
    Country Flag:
    India
    Don't act like rudali all the time.

    When China was growing at 12%, India was growing at 10%. It was a time of ample liquidity, so it was easy to grow fast. And the GDP number you are quoting have a component of inflation included in them. In reality Chinese economy is only 2.5 times that of India, rather than 5, after component of inflation and exchange rate is taken out.
     
  12. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2016
    Messages:
    602
    Likes Received:
    551
    Country Flag:
    India


    Okay....Okay.... Whatever you say.....

    Btw : I had to Google up 'Rudali'....

    Might I add....That is one rare word...
     
  13. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    2,306
    Likes Received:
    4,632
    Country Flag:
    India
    Further Chinese economy is all debts. It is like you have bought a Rs 10 crore flat on a down payment of Rs 2 Crore and so you declare yourself as worth Rs 10 crore but actually your own asset is just RS 2 crore. Only if you are able to clear that debt you will be worth Rs 10 crore but if you fail to pay (since you bought loan when your business was at peak and now your business is down and you are unable to pay off your loan) your home will be seized and liquidated and you will be back to square one or even at worst condition than earlier (meaning after paying of loan and interest you are now left with Rs 1.25 crore).
     
  14. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    2,306
    Likes Received:
    4,632
    Country Flag:
    India
    Further Chinese economy is all debts. It is like you have bought a Rs 10 crore flat on a down payment of Rs 2 Crore and so you declare yourself as worth Rs 10 crore but actually your own asset is just RS 2 crore. Only if you are able to clear that debt you will be worth Rs 10 crore but if you fail to pay (since you bought loan when your business was at peak and now your business is down and you are unable to pay off your loan) your home will be seized and liquidated and you will be back to square one or even at worst condition than earlier (meaning after paying of loan and interest you are now left with Rs 1.25 crore).
     
    A_poster likes this.

Share This Page