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Beyond FGFA: Can India look at others for Stealth fighter Partnerships?

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by layman, Mar 29, 2017.

  1. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    That's not what I am talking about, the CCS has recently cleared a second full blown production line capable of producing 8 LCA/year, the converted hanger you are talking about above is an entirely unrelated development that HAL undertook on its own.

    http://idrw.org/ccs-clears-3rd-production-line-for-lca-tejas/

    By the end of 2019 40 LCA MK.1 will have been handed over to the IAF and then the production will switch to the MK.1A, to produce all 83 units at 16+ LCA/year will take 4-5 years (ie 2023-4), this is what the IAF and HAL have stated.
     
  2. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    The problem is, that you can't really say what Trump is up to. On the one hand he claims to be a businessman, which should be good for defence deals. On the other hand he wants to be nationalistic and therefor actually can't agree to license production deals in India, that risks US jobs. Diverting the F16 production line should be a no go. Maybe he opens up on F35, but surely without a licence production.
     
  3. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Ajit Doval has visited France far more times than he has visited the US in the past 3 years, it still doesn't mean anything. Doval has to go to the US to get to know the new administration.

    The thing is this is overestimating Trump's power, the executive branch in the US does not have the authority to authorise such a mammoth deal involving ToT and such, that requires the approval of the US Congress and no matter what they say (about friendly ties with India), they are not going to agree to any such deal, they have their own base to appease.
     
  4. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    What you saying is the 3rd or 2nd (my analysis 3rd) Full Blown production line with a capacity to produce 8 more planes.
    December 2018, the SOP (Standard of Preparation) is likely to be finalised. The Drawing Applicability List (DAL) will also be ready soon. (DAL is a key element of SOP). "We are planning to have four Tejas MKIAs ready by 2018/19 and these platforms will be with slight weight reduction. By June 2016, some concrete plans for Tejas MKIA will be ready," says an official. As per the current plans, by 2025 HAL must hand over 100 Tejas MKIAs to IAF.
     
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  5. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    ToT is not = ToT! We already got plenty US ToT deals, be it as offsets for C17, C130, P8 deals, be it for the licence production of GE 414 or even the partial production of M777. But we won't get any critical technology from them.
     
  6. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Bud, am jus giving you my POV how you want perceive it your wish, he might even go for a baseball game. So be it.

    They are already thinking of shutting down F-16 supply lines, As i commented earlier they looking to move the infra.
    Be it Trump or the US congress it is in their favour to approve the deals and they know that that why Tillerson and Mattis are pushing with group of senators.
    It may be the first, but these things are how you perceive would or may happen.
    Everyone's perception may be different even i dont believe on US giving ToT for jets easily there may be strings attached.
     
  7. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    I guess technically it is the 3rd production line but the 2nd full-blown production line (with a capacity to produce 8/year). The converted Kiran hanger isn't a full-blown dedicated production line and can only produce 3/year.

    + by the way, if HAL outsources production yet further to the pvt sector from their current target of 60% to 80% they can touch 24/year from existing (2/3) production lines without having to add anymore capacity themselves. IMHO this will only happen after 2021.

    Yes, as per IAF (from a few weeks ago) 123 LCA will be handed over by 2023-4.
     
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  8. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    None of the above deals were said to come with ToT! The, now former, DM had said they would only entertain deals from now on that came with signifcant ToT thus the US doesn't stand a chance.
     
  9. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    We'll see, I don't think India and this deal is even on their top 100 "to do" list, they seem to have bigger problems interally to deal with.

    You can mention Trump or Mattis but the power doesn't exist with them to grant such sales, but with Congress and we know how long it takes them to pass any legislation and the enviroment today is particuarly fractured and ineffective. As I have said, India isn't a priority and it isn't like India is pushing too hard for this itself.

    This deal only makes sense if it is signed this year or next year (at the latest) but there isn't even the smallest chance of that so it just won't be happening (among many other reasons).
     
  10. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    They don't need to say it, because it's not a requirement to provide ToT in offsets but a choice of the vendor. They can also choose to invest the money in production and research facilities in India, however the mentioned cases still turn out to produce parts of arms and techs (mainly to reduce costs for their own benefit), which then again needs US government approval.
     
  11. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Right and that's the difference between offsets and ToT (yes, I know there is no such thing as full ToT). These kind of freedoms don't exist when you are meant to be offering ToT, as the DPP-2016 and former DM said, India is only interested in critical ToT. The US won't be able to adhere to these terms.
     
  12. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Well this is a Hypothesis let us leave it at that.
    Fact is there slim to none chances that F-35's are going to be considered. F-16's different ball game which we dont want to comment now.

    Let us move to AMCA.
     
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  13. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Frankly, the F-35 has more chances than the outdated F-16, that should tell you something :D

    as you say, time to move onto the AMCA.
     
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  14. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    We were talking about US government giving approval for ToT and that's what I showed.
    Also tenders that require ToT can only state certain amounts that needs to be diverted back, but not what kind, since that is only a decision between the vendor and his government. Take the Rafale deal, Snecma offered us their participation in the Kaveri issue, which is consultancy work but doesn't include ToT from the Rafale directly. Sagem diverts parts of the AASM production under ToT, but nothing critical as it seems either. I wonder what critical ToT will be prvoided by the Ka226 deal, since that's still the biggest new deal right?
     
  15. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    March 28/17: A number of US senators have come together in a bipartisan effort to pressure the Trump administration into approving two key defense deals with India [​IMG] [​IMG]. Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Mark Warner, D-Va urged Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in joint letters to approve co-production of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 in India and to approve the export of General Atomics’ Guardian, a nonlethal maritime version of the MQ-9 Reaper. Speaking on the F-16 negotiations, the letters stated that a successful deal “will increase interoperability with a key partner and a dominant power in South Asia, build India’s capacity to counter threats from the north, and balance China’s growing military capability in the Pacific,” while on the Guardian UAV deal, the men warned that a failure to go through with the sale “will not only have implications for regional security in the Asia-Pacific, but could also significantly impact the MQ-9 production line and put thousands of US manufacturing jobs at risk.”
     

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