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BJP sweeps local body elections in Gujarat

Discussion in 'National Politics' started by Levina, Nov 29, 2016.

  1. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Congress is virtually down and out, if they somehow manage to lose Punjab, might as well hold a public funeral for them. Kejriwal is busy demolishing his and his party's reputation in Dehli, and I'd be shocked if he wins in Dehli next time. Assuming BJP is really headed towards victory in UP and the SP Yadavs are crumbling, that leaves two crucial opponents in my opinion: Mamata/TMC in Bengal, and Jayalalitha(unless she dies)/AIADMK in TN.

    Due to the way seats are split by states, unfortunately those two are undeserved kingmakers and massive pains in the ass. BJP needs to find some solution to them , especially Mamata who is out and out antinational if it suits her political needs.
     
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  2. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    Yah hence what I mean by attrition. When BJP takes UP which almost seems inevitable now....this lets them to focus on Didi as last real bulwark (given Nitish Kumar is now showing real signs of returning to de-facto NDA fold).

    BJP is making gains in West Bengal with each passing year and thus Mamata has to walk a real slippery slope on how anti-national she can really be....given sheer polarisation will spell doom for her in the long run.

    I wouldn't worry about AIADMK or even DMK in the South....they are both chameleon parties....willing to worm and weasel inside the overall national current. If JJ does pass away or is severely incapacitated, AIADMK may even become more conducive to entering the NDA fold (again de-facto) given they really do not have any other dominant personalities of her stature.

    Modi has gone all in with demonetisation. This is good for India because it forces BJP to keep pushing reforms to get the demonetisation benefits. They cannot sit back and do nothing and cross their fingers. They will also have some extra play with direct populism if RBI can print (create/inject) even more than 10% (and its very likely to be 20% or higher I feel) of the demonetised money total (by deleverage volume) into various pro-poor schemes to smooth over or bail out any lasting effects in that community federally....but the onus should remain on structural reform.

    With the labour law (based on Rajasthan new state labour law) coming up for federal parliament procedure to be made into national law basis...there could be a significant formal job creation in the next few years in the areas of society where it is desperately needed since forever.

    Govt needs to keep getting feedback, thinking on its feet, responding quickly and be as anti-status quo as possible. Finally the 2014 LS result will have real meaning for the masses long term.
     
  3. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Yup, Nitish Kumar looks like he's learned his lesson and will sooner or later bite the bullet. Would be huge if he pulled out of his alliance and patched up w/ BJP.

    Mamata is pure poison, she needs to be kicked out ASAP, espc considering that Bengal is a big, important state and a border state as well.

    I concur on AIADMK, kind of hope Jaya dies now since it's mainly a cult party centered around her, if a malleable personality takes over, that'd simplify things. I worry about TN b/c whoever takes over, becomes a major nuisance in our ties w/ Sri Lanka.
     
  4. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    Bengalis only learn hard lessons in a long term sense it seems, so it may take a few election cycles. But though they are slow to learn them, they learn them quite permanently...as seen with the decline of the reds there. It gives me hope that one say TMC falls into that waste-basket as well.

    For time being I am satisfied that the political talk has moved away from national ambitions for Mamata, to her putting it all into defending her home turf. Step one for treatment of infestations is always containment.

    We will see. Yes the ties with SL are a real issue....but I put that relatively low on the overall national priorities. There is after all enough space to circumvent TN parties right now by the federal govt for geopolitics....rather than having to shamelessly pander to them....and still work with them on other appropriate issues. Modi must also learn to do this strategy with Bangladesh and Mamata...dont bring her along like last time or even inform/discuss anything with her regarding BD.

    Malleable personality or not post-JJ, it wont matter too much for Modi given the long term importance federally for TN shenanigans has shrunk considerably now. Hence why JJ is also not an eager beaver to join the anti-demonetisation crowd. The prudent long term thinking parties seem to get it (JDU, ADMK, BJD)...even laloo is now playing wait and see.... The rest have jumped into the desperate bandwagon and called what they think (more like hope and pray) is a bad play by Modi....but they have a very poor hand themselves (say off suit low value) and there is still the turn and river to play....which both sides are going to go all in. We get to see if Modi can improve his ace high to something much better...and even losing the hand in some way will not spell doom for him (unlike the opponents) given the chips he has thus far accumulated.
     
  5. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Agreed, it's good that we have stopped hearing about PM ambitions of JJ, Mamata and Mulayam.
     
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  6. Vidyanshu

    Vidyanshu Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Election Commission is of the view that it is not good to downgrade a party's status after a 5 year review period just because the party terribly lost an election.

    This is specially true for Tamil Nadu where in one state election AIADMK will win 210 out of 230 seats, and 5 year hence DMK will win the same number of seats.

    This system badly hurts regional parties. In fact, BSP was set to loose 'national party' status:devilwork:.
     
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  7. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Jayalalitha is almost done,I rarely see a person Live and recover fully after a prolonged stay of more than 1 month in ICU.
    She was in a bad condition and even now her health information is being kept a state secret.After that long stay in ICU she would automatically get Nosocomial Infections(Hospital borne Infections and Superbugs) which will play havoc on her health.I am suspecting a Kidney and respiratory failure along with something along the lines of cancer.
    They will leak bad news of her health slowly,to avoid chaos. Everyone is scared to break this news for the fear of backlash or cases being piled on them.
    When she goes,there will be a vacuum in TN,DMK has run it's course,the old man Karunanidhi has one leg inside the grave. His sons are busy fighting for roles in party.This vacuum can be filled by BJP provided they start recruiting grass root workers and get some cadres to begin with.

    Bengal is a gone case,i would not bother much about it,The Bengalis brought it upon themselves by electing TMC again,they need to feel the pinch of Islamic Extremism and Bangladeshis ruling them, only then will they come to their senses. Communist ruled states have this Sickularism fever,which stays on for a long time.
    BJP has been making steady gains in West Bengal,new leaders have emerged now,Let's hope the state which produced some of the best Nationalist thinkers and influencers,still has some juice left in it,to produce Nationalist leaders again.
     
  8. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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  9. dray

    dray 2nd Lieutant IDF NewBie

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    I pray to god everyday to keep INC out of power for the lifetime of Rahul Gandhi at least...he becoming the PM would be the greatest ever disaster in the history of India. :(
     
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  10. Kalmuahlaunda

    Kalmuahlaunda Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Nahi sir, Pray INC keep Rahul in power, He single handedly destroys Congress more than Modi could ever do
     
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  11. dray

    dray 2nd Lieutant IDF NewBie

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    He can be at the helm of Congress, just shouldn't be anywhere near the PM's chair.
     
  12. Kalmuahlaunda

    Kalmuahlaunda Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    dada apni toh bangali na
     
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  13. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    Bhai, how pro/anti illegal BD immigrant were the commies in WB before getting chucked out by didi?
     
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  14. Echo_419

    Echo_419 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Don't forget about Kerala. That state along with West Bengal needs AFSPA for a decade
     
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  15. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Hi Levina, nice to see you here as a moderator.
     
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