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Brexit the chance for a united EU military?

Discussion in 'Europe & Russia' started by Sancho, Mar 30, 2017.

  1. Sancho

    Sancho Major Technical Analyst

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    The UK is officially leaving the EU and with them, one of the prominent speakers against a joint defence policy of the EU nations.
    With the migrant problems in the south, rising tensions with Russia in the east, Turkey turning to a dictatorship and Trump uncertain to support Europeans, a common defence strategy and a joint military command gets more important than ever before!

    What are the chances or risks in your opinion?

    @Picdelamirand-oil @halloweene @Abingdonboy @Gessler @PARIKRAMA @MilSpec @SpArK @layman @Levina
     
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  2. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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  3. halloweene

    halloweene Major MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    I HOPE it would happen. But i'm fairly pessimistic. Imho, this whole story started the wrong way, with "battlegroups". The real way to start that is strategic, common integrated defense of European territories. But that will be difficult due to overlaps with NATO. Well, recent positive signs could be recorded (bout military research for example, a common fund was created)...
     
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  4. Sancho

    Sancho Major Technical Analyst

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    But would French forces actually be for such a move, since an independent defence model was always important for your country?
    With the UK gone, France will clearly have the most influence in the EU defence and most likely the leading role.
    And isn't this also a chance for the EU not only to be more independent from NATO as a whole, but also from US influence in Europe? They influencing eastern European countries is one of the key reasons for the tensions with Russia now and Europe is paying the price once again.
     
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  5. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    A look at a data by Athens Journal of Social Sciences suggests small pointers

    upload_2017-3-30_17-20-16.png

    What it shows is that GDP wise top spenders in military are
    1. UK 2.41%
    2. Greece 2.17%
    3. France 2.11%

    Based on the data the Net Benefit for individual country based on factors like GDP, Imports, Exports , trade, terrorism, Military Spending etc is as below

    upload_2017-3-30_17-23-13.png



    Now if i again look at top 3 military spending by GDP and look at the table above its seen that net benefit effect for UK is -11.37, Germany is -1.67 and France is -7.10. Further by military strength numbers as well Italy enters the negative net benefit of -0.78,

    This implies many countries under EU will get benefit especially when they focus on
    1. Intra Euro Trade and Security
    2. External Euro any Military Risk arising out of changing geo political scenario

    But what it shows is that biggest contributors of this shared defence Union in terms of GDP spending and Military Strength Numbers will remain net Spenders only and over a period of time, will be overburdened by the net negative benefit effect.

    If we imply and understand that to come in sync with changing shared union ideology, the GDP spendings is reduced, the overall strength of the Union will also go down considerably.

    Since position wise Germany can surely make this change by cut in defence spending but France and UK will find it very tough to make such cutting.

    On top two other issues which will plague the whole Union is
    1. Terrorism impact and definition+identification of root causes especially religion specific issue. The internal and external threats identification and how to deal with them may lead to ideological issues between member nation
    2. Economic Recession hitting some nations more then others.. and if it hits the major 3-4 spending nations especially top 3 listed above, it might lead to whole Union security to be sub par and heightened risk
    The refugees in a way showed how Euro is hollow in terms of Unity. So such a union is very tough for an amicable existence.

    For read on Athens Journal, please go through attached pdf

    Edited to correct Germany to Greece..
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
  6. Sancho

    Sancho Major Technical Analyst

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    You as well, thx for adding the others too.
     
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  7. Sancho

    Sancho Major Technical Analyst

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    Military spending is one thing, having the political will to use the military in some times necessary ways is another. Germany is a big issue in that regard for the EU, since it's not really a reliable partner in defence matters, although the military is highly skilled.
     
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  8. halloweene

    halloweene Major MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Political will for french forces? Yes. Recently a german lawsuit asked for an integrated nuclear european force with french nukes... Trump factor...
     
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  9. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Germany is 1.31% it is Greece which is at 2.11%
     
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  10. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    I think that it's not easy to have a common defense if we don't have a common policy for external affair.
    Suppose that we , the French, have a common defense with Germany. Would it be possible to perform the Mali campaign? How about the process of decision?
    An other thing : Nuclear weapons. The French regime give a lot of Power to the president, which is not an approach that satisfy the German. But if we need to use nuclear weapon, perhaps the decision will be taken in less than 15 minuts! So you need to give a lot of power to the men who decide : nobody can oppose him. And if you give this man such a power, you give him also the power to declare the war and so on and so on....
     
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  11. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Trump and may are cozy. She will ride on good mutual understanding.
     
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  12. WhyCry

    WhyCry Reaper Love Developers -IT and R&D

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    Germany can't be more than 2%. They are always looking for exceptions from NATO.
     
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  13. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    To be honest I'm not informed enough in internal sentiments on the continent to be in a position to comment.
     
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  14. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Yes corrected that.. thanks for pointing.. I need to use my specs more..
     
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  15. Sancho

    Sancho Major Technical Analyst

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    No not political will, I'm more interested in how your forces would see such a move?
    Yes the Trump factor can be used as another chance to find common ground too.

    True, a joint foreign policy will need to go with it, but in the short term I see a joint naval policy to be the easiest way to start. Frontex is not enough and sooner or later the EU needs to have the capability to at least project humanitarian help through a joint amphibious fleet for example.

    Wouldn't that be like a mini NATO, just that the members in this case have more common goals?

    I think that will never be a part of the joint forces. I don't see France giving away the control of your nukes. France simply might guarantee the use if a EU country will be attacked and charge other countries for the maintenance of that capability.
     
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