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BRICS, E7 Economies, and IBSA

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by santosh, Mar 26, 2014.

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  1. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    The BRICS

    BRICS is the acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies:Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.[2] The grouping was originally known as "BRIC" before the inclusion of South Africa in 2010. :tup: The BRICS members are all developing or newly industrialised countries, but they are distinguished by their large, fast-growing economies[3] and significant influence on regional and global affairs; all five are G-20 members. As of 2013, the five BRICS countries represent almost 3 billion people, with a combined nominal GDP of US$16.039 trillion,[1] and an estimated US$4 trillion in combined foreign reserves.[4] Presently, South Africa holds the chair of the BRICS group, having hosted the group's fifth summit in 2013. The BRICS have received both praise and criticism from numerous quarters.[5][6][7]

    [​IMG]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS



    The E7

    The E7 is a group of seven countries with emerging economies. The E7 are predicted to have larger economies than the G7 countries by 2020.[1] The term was coined by the PricewaterhouseCoopers[2] in the Stern Review report, which was published on 30 October 2006. The E7 represents the seven major emerging economies.[3]

    [​IMG]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E7_(countries)
     
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  2. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    IBSA [India, Brazil & South Africa]
    April 24, 2013

    IBSA is a unique Forum which brings together India, Brazil and South Africa, three large democracies and major economies from three different continents, facing similar challenges. All three countries are developing, pluralistic, multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious nations.

    [​IMG]


    The idea of establishing IBSA was discussed at a meeting between the then Prime Minister of India and the then Presidents of Brazil and South Africa in Evian on 2 June 2003 on the margins of the G-8 Summit. The grouping was formalized and named the IBSA Dialogue Forum when the Foreign Ministers of the three countries met in Brasilia on 6 June 2003 and issued the Brasilia Declaration.

    Cooperation in IBSA is on three fronts: first, as a forum for consultation and coordination on global and regional political issues, such as, the reform of the global institutions of political and economic governance, WTO/Doha Development Agenda, climate change, terrorism etc.; second, trilateral collaboration on concrete areas/projects, through fourteen working groups and six People-to-People Forums, for the common benefit of three countries; andthird, assisting other developing countries by taking up projects in the latter through IBSA Fund

    The success of IBSA reflects an important demonstration effect. It demonstrates, most vividly, the desirability and feasibility of South-South cooperation beyond the conventional areas of exchange of experts and training. IBSA success in contributing to discourse on global issues also shows the importance of engaging with the countries of the South.

    [​IMG]


    Organizational Structure

    Joint Working Groups

    1. Joint Working Groups to promote sectoral cooperation have been established. There are 14 Joint Working Groups in areas, Transport; Health; Education; Defence; Science & Technology; Trade & Investment; Culture; Agriculture; Energy; Public Administration and Governance, Revenue Administration, Human Settlement, Environment and Social Development. These Working Groups meet as per their respective plans.

      People-to-People Forums
    2. There are six People-to-People Forums under IBSA. These are, Parliamentary Forum, Women's Forum, Academic Forum, Local Governance Forum, Business Forum, and Editors' Forum. There is also a Tri-nation Forum on MSME.

      Focal Points
    3. Senior Officials from the Foreign Offices of the three countries dealing with IBSA are the designated Focal Points; Secretary (West), assisted by Joint Secretary (MER), Ministry of External Affairs, is the IBSA Focal Point for India. Focal Points meet once a year for a standalone meeting and also meet prior to the Trilateral Commission.

      Trilateral Commission
    4. The Brasilia Declaration established a Trilateral Commission at the level of Foreign Ministers. The Commission meets regularly; the first meeting of the Trilateral Commission was held in New Delhi on 4 - 5 March 2004. The 7th meeting of the Commission was also held in New Delhi on 8th March, 2011; 8th Meeting is due in South Africa. In addition, Foreign Ministers meet regularly before every IBSA Summit as well as on the sidelines of UNGA in New York.

      Summits
    http://www.mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?21578/IBSA+India+Brazil+amp+South+Africa
     
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  3. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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  4. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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  5. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Budget Deficit

    19 Brazil +2.90 2011 est. :coffee:
    36 Russia 0.40 2011 est.
    58 Indonesia -1.20 2011 est.
    68 Turkey -1.60 2011 est.
    71 China -1.80 2011 est.
    91 Mexico -2.40 2011 est.
    132 World -4.20 2011 est.
    149 India -5.00 2011 est. :coffee:
    154 South Africa -5.20 2011 est.

    178 Pakistan -7.00 2011 est.

    190 United Kingdom -8.80 2011 est.
    191 United States -8.90 2011 est.
    193 Greece -9.60 2011 est.
    198 Ireland -10.10 2011 est.

    Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-) 2012 country ranks, By Rank
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2014
  6. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    List of countries by credit rating

    here, we find only China looking impressive among all the E7+SA :coffee: rest are mostly yellow.... :tsk:

    [​IMG]

    World countries by Standard & Poor's Foreign Rating in May 2013[1][2

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_credit_rating


    and in fact its mainly because of poor Infrastructure assets in emerging economies, why they are down to the developed economies in these ratings.....
     
  7. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Ratings are mostly biased... Who can forecast the potential of the country through its policies....
     
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  8. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    the reports like as below generally have variations from 10% to 40%, but we have something in this regard so i think it may have a place here too. here we clearly see that Brazil and India have to spend much more on the Infrastructure :coffee:

    [​IMG]

    You can see that Brazil has the worst overall ranking among the countries listed. Though the country is a large exporter, the extremely poor condition of the country’s roads and rails has hampered the growth of internal textile and farming industries. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel for the country, as the government already has a plan in place to improve these conditions (Read: Brazil’s Infrastructure Plays Catch Up). :coffee:

    India’s infrastructure also rates poorly, and is slowing the country’s ascent to top of the world’s economies (Read: India’s Achilles Heel). One of India’s key issues is electricity. :coffee:

    Power is also a problem in South Africa where a major power plant has not been built in 20 years and blackouts/power outages have hurt the country’s mining industry in recent years. Merrill projects $54 billion will need to be spent on the country’s power system over the next three years, accounting for nearly half total infrastructure spending.

    China, which accounts for more than half of that $6 trillion estimate, ranks far above emerging peers in terms of infrastructure at the 65th percentile. Merrill says that one of China’s biggest needs is in water and environmental development. The firm estimates that the Asian country will need to build roughly 40,000 reservoirs at Rmb 12.5 million a piece to create an internal water distribution system and alleviate pressure when regions experience extended droughts such as what China is seeing presently.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/why-global-infrastructure-is-a-6-trillion-opportunity-2011-5?IR=T
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2014
  9. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    World Competitiveness Yearbook 2012:

    [​IMG]

    The most competitive nations in Europe are Switzerland (3), Sweden (5) and Germany (9), which have export-oriented manufacturing and fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, Ireland (20), Iceland (26) and Italy (40) look better equipped to bounce back than Spain (39), Portugal (41) and Greece (58), which continue to scare investors.

    Emerging economies are not yet immune to turmoil elsewhere. China (23), India (35) and Brazil (46) have all slipped in the rankings, Russia (18) climbed only one place. All Asian economies have declined apart from Hong Kong (1), Malaysia (14) and Korea (22). Latin America also had a tough year, with every nation falling except Mexico (37). :coffee:

    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_102447.shtml
     
  10. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Most Expansive Places of World
    15-10-2012

    5th Moscow $17,566 per sq.m.

    7th Singapore $16,350 per sq.m.

    10th Mumbai $11,306 per sq.m. :coffee:


    12th Sydney $8,774 per sq.m.

    20th Shanghai $6,932 per sq.m.

    29th Istanbul $4,569 per sq.m.

    47th Dubai $3,393 per sq.m.

    54th Bangkok $2,996

    68th Kuala Lumpur $2,182 per sq.m.

    73rd Jakarta $,2099

    World's most expensive cities



     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2014
  11. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Futron Releases 2012 Space Competitiveness Index

    Futron has released its 2012 Space Competitiveness Index marking the 5th anniversary of the yearly publication. According to the report, the United States remains the overall leader in space competitiveness but is seeing a decline for the 5th year in a row.

    The decline is attributed to enhanced capabilities in other countries while the U.S. is undergoing a transition with "significant" uncertainty.

    New to the index this year are emerging space nations Argentina, Australia, Iran, South Africa and the Ukraine.

    Four distinct tiers have emerged. The first tier has the U.S., Europe, and Russia. The second tier China, Japan, India, and Canada. The third tier South Korea, Israel, and Brazil. And the fourth tier Argentina, Australia, Iran, South Africa and the Ukraine. :coffee:

    Futron says the top two tiers remain dynamic but have shown some stabilization while the bottom two tiers are subject to intense competition, with very small gaps in the competitive rankings.

    [​IMG]

    China gained the most competitiveness basis points in 2012, followed by Europe, India, and Israel. Japan lost the most basis points, followed by Canada, South Korea, and the United States. When compared against the larger group of 15 nations, Brazil falls to 11th place, just below Australia.

    As has been noted before International collaboration is increasingly taking shape as a concerted space competitiveness strategy, especially among smaller actors.

    Here's a list of some of the findings by country:

    - Argentina is adapting its satellite manufacturing sector for the international marketplace, exploring both commercial and government-to-government deals. It stands to benefit from increased investment in spacecraft subcomponents.

    - After more than a decade of dormancy, Australia is back. The government is refreshing its national space policy segment-by-segment, focusing on space not only a driver of innovation and expertise, but also for its benefits to Australian society.

    - Brazil has begun to re-examine its national space priorities, increased funding, expanded its partnerships, and laid plans for a new launch vehicle. It remains to be seen whether these steps will keep Brazil ahead of regional counterparts that are also emerging onto the space scene.

    - Canada retains a skilled space workforce, but delays in space policy refresh and implementation are significantly offsetting these competitive advantages.

    - China performed a record number of launches in 2012, surpassing the United States for the first time, while increasing investment in technical education programs and civilian research institutes.

    - Europe's integrated approach is complemented by the rise of new national space agencies across the continent--from the United Kingdom to the Czech Republic to Estonia--as well as more assertive space export financing.

    [​IMG]

    - India is enhancing its space-related technical education, while gradually progressing toward a completely self-reliant set of next generation launch vehicles.

    - Iran has made faster progress than any other newly emergent space nation. The tenor of Iran's space program--civilian or military--will hinge on geopolitics. Other international actors have substantial power to influence the future focus of the Iranian space program.

    - Israel, despite funding increases, remains challenged by its lack of domestic industry scale, and has difficulty sustaining a commercial space presence in global markets.

    - Japan, despite ongoing benefits from its policy reforms, is losing competitive ground relative to most other actors, and can benefit from a greater focus on commercializing its industrial base.

    - Russia's remains the world's launch leader, and promises to retain that role in the near term thanks to its vital role in transporting astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station, as well as the introduction of Soyuz launches from the European spaceport at Kourou. These strengths, however, are offset by weaknesses in retention of human capital talent.

    - South Africa is divided, from a budgetary standpoint, between space investments focused on societal usage of external assets already in space and investments focused on building the country's own space industrial base.

    - South Korea's two failed launch attempts contributed to an organizational shakeup, but have not reduced its determination to become the newest country to achieve independent spaceflight.

    - Ukraine has an enviable space industrial base, but limited domestic demand for its space hardware. It is aggressively seeking partners overseas, but has not yet engaged with key emerging markets.

    Futron Releases 2012 Space Competitiveness Index - Commercial Space Watch
     
  12. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Most-Favoured FDI Destination: UN report
    [​IMG]

    http://www.unctad-docs.org/files/UNCTAD-WIR2011-Full-en.pdf


    Firms see India 3rd most-favoured destination: UN report

    NEW DELHI: Major global companies consider India their third most favoured destination after China and the United States, a U.N. report said on Thursday, and investment inflows could increase by more than 20 percent both this year and next.

    Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into India leapt 30 percent to nearly $32 billion in 2011, though held back by slow pace of reforms, it still remains a long way down the league table of FDI recipients.

    China drew $124 billion last year, while Brazil attracted nearly $67 billion and Russia $53 billion..

    "The FDI inflows into India can go up by 20-25 percent this year and by about 20 percent next year, if the present trend continues," said Nagesh Kumar, Chief Economist, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, while releasing the UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2012.

    Some 179 global companies - from the manufacturing, services and primary sectors - were surveyed between February and May, on their favoured investment destinations for 2012 to 2014.

    Kumar said FDI growth seems to be keeping its momentum in 2012, referring to furniture maker IKEA and Coca Cola's (KO.N) recent announcements to pump nearly $5 billion combined into India over the long term.

    Though India's economic growth slowed to 5.3 percent in the March quarter, its slowest in nine years, its trends still compared favorably, Kumar said.

    "Compared to many other places, India is doing better in terms of growth," he said, adding global investors were looking at the long term prospects and wide market in Asia's third largest economy.

    The report said worldwide FDI flows exceeded the pre-financial crisis average in 2011, reaching around $1.5 trillion, despite turmoil in the global economy, and is projected around $1.6 trillion this year.

    Global companies are sitting on hefty cash reserves and waiting for the euro zone situation to stabilise before investing, he said.

    Earlier this year India allowed full foreign ownership of single brand retailers, although late last year it backtracked on a plan to allow in foreign supermarkets.

    Many investors are hoping it revives that plan soon, after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently took over the finance portfolio and talked about the need to address problems in the insurance and mutual fund industries, as well as taxation.

    Kumar said corporate investors look at long term prospects and recent controversies over retroactive tax proposals broadly aimed at taxing companies like Vodafone (VOD.L), or proposed general anti-tax avoidance rules ( GAAR) would not hurt India's prospects as an investment destination.

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ec...st-favoured-destination-un-report_726565.html
     
  13. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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  14. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Debt on India and Other Emerging Economies

    While concerning India, as I have more knowledge about India, we find its Public Debt at around 50% to GDP and Total National Debt closed to 65%. but as total foreign reserve of India itself stood at around $300billion, very closed to it's total Foreign Debt at around $350billion to date. so I would say that Total National Debt on India would come at around 55%. (as, the Foreign Reserve holding by India does means for borrowing debt of other countries, which may be used for debt payments, makes sense?)

    also, as discussed in the post as below, India's GDP would grow by at least 6.0%+ for the next 20 years time, so it has a little meaning, how much debt India really has. in fact, around 55% Debt to GDP does looks impressive, i think......

    an estimate of Public Debt and Government Debt on the different countries is given as below......

    => List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    [​IMG]


    => and on comparison with the above GDP curves of falling economies as above, we have growth rate of emerging economies like India, Indonesia, Turkey, China etc as below. :coffee:

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/gdp-growth-annual

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-growth-annual

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual


    here we clearly see emerging economies like India, for example, having 6.5%+ average growth rate per year since 2008 recession....

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual


    =>
    along with the Government/National Debt level as above, this is how Household Debt of emerging economies like BRIC stand as compare to these falling economies. :coffee:

    [​IMG]



    =>
    Total Debt on BRIC/India

    we have one more picture of Total Debt level of BRIC as compare to these falling economies as below. here about India, we generally say few points as below:

    1st; that Total Household Debt of India is much less than the total Gold Reserves in these house of India.

    2nd; Total Foreign Debt on India is closed to total Foreign Reserve of India.

    3rd; Total 'Public Debt', excluding foreign debt is well maintained below 50% to GDP, along with at least 6%+ expected growth rate for the next 20 years+ :coffee:


    =>
    [​IMG]

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/global-debt-guide

    .
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2014
  15. santosh

    santosh Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    GDP estimates show worst may be over
    February 8, 2014

    [​IMG]

    Agriculture and allied sectors show improvement

    The Central Statistical Office (CSO) released on Friday estimates of 2013-14 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, pegging it at 4.9 per cent. In 2012-13, the economy grew at 4.5 per cent, the lowest in a decade. :coffee:

    Since the growth during the April-September 2013 was 4.6 per cent, a full-year CSO estimate of 4.9 per cent implies that the economy is expected to grow at just under 5.4 per cent during the second half of 2013-14. The estimate, therefore, shows the worst may be over and the economy will bounce back in the second half of the current fiscal something that the UPA government has been stating. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in his press conference last year that India's own growth momentum will revive.

    The pick-up has come mainly from the Agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors that the CSO estimates will grow at 4.6 per cent, against 1.4 per cent last fiscal.

    Also, the services sector, including finance, insurance, real estate and business services, is estimated to grow at 11.2 per cent, compared with 10.9 per cent in 2012-13. Electricity, gas and water production is estimated to grow at 6 per cent, up from 2.3 per cent last fiscal. :coffee:

    The CSO estimates project a contraction during the current fiscal in the manufacturing sector. :facepalm:

    Keywords: India's GDP, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Central Statistical office, gross domestic product

    GDP estimates show worst may be over - The Hindu
     
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