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Britain should accept more immigrants if it wants a free trade deal - Senior Indian diplomat

Discussion in 'Europe & Russia' started by somedude, Nov 27, 2017.

  1. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    I know. But they can't get an FTA with India without Mode 4 anyway.

    It's not as convenient as is necessary. And Mode 4 is necessary for India, not permanent immigration. The point is to make them come back to India as richer individuals.

    I'm assuming UK is unable to agree right now for two reasons. They want to see what they can get out of the EU first. So FTAs with other countries are going to depend on the FTA with the EU.

    The second reason is people in the UK are going to see the Mode 4 free movement as immigration and not expat movement. So there's political reasons. Temporary workers are going to be put in the same bracket as permanent migrants.

    The ones being rejected may not have received the necessary training.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/hea...1000-new-doctors-could-face-unemployment.html
     
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  2. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Indians will go anywhere, the language barrier is not a significant hurdle. There are less Indians in the EU than the UK because of regulatory hurdles.

    Look at the list of non-English/non-Indian countries.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-resident_Indian_and_person_of_Indian_origin
     
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  3. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Check your facts, I'm pretty sure they already give such access if the earnings are >£35k but they won't allow that figure to be undercut. That said, can't understand why India isn't more keen to just make something and export it to the UK with all that cheap labour.

    I'm talking about getting access to a Medicine degree itself. All As is as good as you can have at that point. But that story is a perfect example of why we need to invest more in our own people rather than saying we need immigrants as the first solution to every problem.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2017
  4. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Actually it is. Most Polish speak German, so Germany get the higher earning Poles and Britain get the lower earning ones for that very reason.
     
  5. somedude

    somedude Captain FULL MEMBER

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    The UK is still in the EU currently. Regulatory hurdles are the same. A better explanation for the larger Indian population in the UK is that they've been coming there for much longer, as a legacy of British colonialism. Likewise why there are many Indians in other former British colonies; their ancestors were moved there for a reason or another.

    People will preferentially move to countries that have a lot of well-paid jobs for them, are nearby, share a common language, or have a sizable population of compatriots that can help you adapt to the new land. That doesn't mean they won't move to countries with none of these things, but these can sway the decision when several choices are available.
     
  6. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Urmmm... not with respect to non-EU immigration, countries can still decide that independently of the EU. It's things like tariffs that are EU bound.
     
  7. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    If it's cheap labour and exports, we are competing with many countries. But with respect to manpower, we are numero uno, even China can't compete with us. Nobody can export skilled manpower like we can.

    The earnings from skilled manpower is incredible. It beats any good, even oil. The only thing less perishable than manpower is gold.

    You are not looking at the big picture. Our diaspora is only 30 million strong and we are earning 70B every year in forex. And it's mostly from cheap labour or permanent immigrants.

    So one can imagine what it will be like if we send in 30 million highly skilled professionals out. Their combined earnings will be $3T every year even if they all earn only $100,000 a year. Repeat: That's $3 Trillion. And they will bring quite a big chunk of that home because they are temporary workers, not permanent. As they skill up, many will eventually become job creators.

    How big was the global oil industry again?

    You really think regular trade can compete with this? :D

    The ones not getting internship will be the bottom rung.

    Anyway, doctors are a tiny part of the equation, what you have is a million job vacancies. Ten years ago, it was less than 500,000. Ten years later, it could be 2 million.
     
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  8. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Not necessarily, we could make an exporting trade deal that favours India. I struggle to understand what you're saying though. If the manpower is so good, why can't you use it to make something to export.

    If you use 30m professionals you could make many trillions worth of exports. $100k is also no small amount. That is more than an engineering contractor averages. You have to subtract taxes and living expenses from that too. At best, you would take back half that. But as is the risk with any contractor/temp, they can be poached and then you lose them. They would need to speak proper English to earn that amount though, not call-centre English.

    They should still favour their own people in medicine though. You can't claim a shortage in doctors/nurses if you engineered that shortage yourself. They need more apprenticeships and graduate places in other professions too. Right now I see a lot of employers being very fussy. They'll only have a genuine shortage when the fussiness stops. If they've genuinely advertised it for 6 months internally and had zero interest, then fine.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  9. Rajaraja Chola

    Rajaraja Chola 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Simple cost. What he is saying is even those who earn more than 35k per annum face visa issues and the reasons who are rejected visa are not transparent. Similar to much like Muttiah Muralidaran was asked to undergo English test for County season when he had played in England county teams lots of times previously.

    Every business to be started in UK have to be competitive to be profitable. UK as a country is a small market. So if you want to export services(IT and Engineering/Manufacturing) to other countries your products are not going to be profitable with local labour. Moreover if UK goes out of EU what benefit will an Indian/or any other country company can get by investing in UK? No market, no more free access to EU, no trade deals with other countries etc.

    An experienced local guy who might be paid 85-100k for a job, can be found in India doing the same job and can be paid 45k pa in UK. If Indian companies want to be competitive in UK, then its perfectly right to expect for them to import professionals who can be cheap and experts. The products can be competitive, help even UK to export some services. Indian companies in UK are already facing heavy losses thanks to high labor rates.
     
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  10. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    No. The UK immigration rules are different for Indians. It's because we are part of the Commonwealth and stuff.
     
  11. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    It's not the same. Other countries cannot compete with us when it comes to manpower. We are practically a monopoly. So we will be able to pull out far better terms from host countries in exchange.

    We will obviously do exports, we will still have hundreds of millions of poor and lower middle class who will work in industries dedicated to merchandise exports.

    But Mode 4 is for the highly skilled, like people with 5 or 10 years in programming and stuff like that. These guys will be experienced consultants, managers, engineers, doctors etc.

    These guys will be taxed in India, not the host country, since they are temporary workers and will be considered residents of India. In a 4 year period, you should have spent at least 1 year in India to be a resident. So the work duration will rarely exceed 2 years for an individual. Most of them will stay a year or less in fact. Then they move to a different country or back to India, depending on the individual.

    Also, temporary workers get more perks, like subsidized or free housing, free food etc. So most expenses will be minimum in the host country.

    You can't poach them. The visas will have to be sponsored by companies for short term work.

    Naturally. I am referring to highly skilled professionals. But their skills will be independent from language, the idea is to work globally.
     
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  12. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Rubbish UK now recognizes Indian medical degrees as equivalent to UK,they came to India to get more medical students to study in UK colleges and specialists to work there.
     
  13. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    I think you've misread what I wrote. My point says nothing about the quality of Indian degrees. It simply says that we have people in our own country who are making the highest possible university entrance grades who aren't being given positions on medicine degrees and we also have medicine graduates who aren't being given training positions. We need to fix this before we go looking abroad.
     
  14. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    If they can't then you should be able to use that manpower to produce exports that beat theirs. In the description, Mode 4 says nothing about 'highly skilled' but it does say that it's a small proportion of overall services. But I'm sure this already exists for those earning >£35k. Why would we force someone to immigrate permanently and be a burden on public services, when we can get them to pay the same tax just providing a service?
    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/mouvement_persons_e/mouvement_persons_e.htm



    Ah, well that's why you will never get what you want. You want to take jobs without even contributing to the state giving them. Why would any country want to put people out of work and lose tax income in the process?


    Wow, so you want perks too?


    Who would then offer them a permanent job and citizenship in the UK, which they would take in a heartbeat.

    If they're not paying taxes here, you may as well be sending unemployed bums over on a dinghy.

    That said, why do programmers even need to be in the UK? There's such a thing as e-mail.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  15. BMD

    BMD Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    You'll find our financial services are competitive the world over. Secondly, 4% of global GDP isn't that small a market. Thirdly, if there's no deal with the EU, things like European vehicles won't sell in the UK, so the internal market will expand to fill the void. The UK is a net importer of cars from the EU, so it is the UK that would gain more jobs. Fourth, WTO tariffs are smaller, smaller than the fall in the £ and with the money saved by not being in the EU, corporation tax can be reduced, so our exports will still be more competitive than they were in early 2016.

    Labour rates are again cheaper now than in 2016 due to the fall in the £.

    Wouldn't you prefer to have more jobs in your own country?
     

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