chances of BJP to win in 2014

Discussion in 'National Democratic Alliance' started by Himanshu Pandey, Jun 14, 2013.

  1. Himanshu Pandey
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    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. Staff Member MODERATOR

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    now when the divorce is inevitable.. lets put the debate on further areas.... the chances of BJP of coming in power.. what it need to do and how it can win enough seats and where?

    BJP's hope lies in UP, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Himachal pradesh, Hariyana, Punjab, Delhi, MP, Chhatishgarh, Rajsthan, Maharastra, Gujrat, Assam, Karnatka, Telengana, Goa, Jammu, little bit from Odisa, Andhra pradesh, Tamilnadu, and may be one or 2 seats from NE.

    lets discuss about how much chances it had in which states and what are the hurdles there..

    the LS seats in various states are:

    Uttar Pradesh-----------------------80
    Uttarakhand-------------------------5
    Rajasthan--------------------------25
    Punjab-----------------------------13
    Maharashtra------------------------48
    Madhya Pradesh--------------------29
    Karnataka--------------------------28
    Jharkhand--------------------------14
    Himachal Pradesh-------------------4
    Haryana----------------------------10
    Gujarat-----------------------------26
    Goa--------------------------------2
    Delhi-------------------------------7
    Chhattisgarh-----------------------11
    Chandigarh------------------------1
    Bihar-----------------------------45
    Assam---------------------------14
    Arunachal Pradesh----------------2
    total----------------------------364

    BJP is a alone or with its alliance party has a good vote base in all the above states

    presently the parties in National Democratic Alliance

    Bharatiya Janata Party
    Shiv Sena
    Shiromani Akali Dal
    Telangana Rashtra Samithi
    Asom Gana Parishad
    Haryana Janhit Congress

    party which leaving or left in recent times

    Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
    Janata Dal (United)

    party which can join the NDA if there is chance for win

    All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIDMK)( Tamil Nadu-------39)
    Telugu Desam Party (Andhra Pradesh--------------------------------42)
    Biju Janata Dal(Odisha----------------------------------------------21)
    All India Trinamool Congress(West Bengal----------------------------42)
    Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)
    Mizo National Front (Mizoram----------------------------------------1)
    Sikkim Democratic Front (Sikkim-------------------------------------1)
    Gorkha Janmukti Morcha( working in West Bangal)
    Nagaland People's Front (Nagaland----------------------------------1)
    Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (working in Uttrakhand, a force for assembly elections and participated in them)
    Ladakh Union Territory Front(Ladakh--------------------------------1)
    Kamtapur Progressive Party(working in kamtapur, West bangal)

    total------------------------------------------------------------- 148

    so IMO.. BJP has a chance to cover 512 LS seats if all goes too good and according to script but as it is not the case.. so what will be the scenerio
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2013
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  2. MAFIAN GOD
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    MAFIAN GOD SENIOR MEMBER

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    [MENTION=7118]Himanshu Pandey[/MENTION] :-

    Buddy, I hate to say this but most of the parties you mentioned in the last paragraph either have no/very less influence in their areas or they are congressi puppets.
    I feel that only AIADMK is a possibility which will join NDA.
  3. Himanshu Pandey
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    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. Staff Member MODERATOR

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    buddy most of those parties are from small state and they are holding or help the only LS seat of their state, and some of them as uttrakhand kranti dal and kamtapur progressive party didn't participated in LS but they had given support to BJP candidate in their areas and complained for them.. their voters had voted for BJP.. when there is every vote matters these parties are good for BJP... they share their votes with BJP but not the seat... so no influence on BJP... another aspect is that this will open the way for Modi to be acceptable in alliance. and each party I mentioned were/are part of NDA and played their role in its victory in past.
  4. vstol jockey
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    vstol jockey PROFESSIONAL

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    My projection are

    Uttar Pradesh-----------------------80---------45
    Uttarakhand-------------------------5----------3
    Rajasthan--------------------------25----------20
    Punjab-----------------------------13----------10
    Maharashtra------------------------48---------32
    Madhya Pradesh--------------------29----------22
    Karnataka--------------------------28-----------19
    Jharkhand--------------------------14----------10
    Himachal Pradesh-------------------4-----------2
    Haryana----------------------------10-----------7
    Gujarat-----------------------------26----------24
    Goa--------------------------------2--------------2
    Delhi-------------------------------7--------------5
    Chhattisgarh-----------------------11------------9
    Chandigarh------------------------1---------------1
    Bihar-----------------------------45--------------20
    Assam---------------------------14----------------7
    Arunachal Pradesh----------------2--------------0
    total----------------------------364--------------228


    This includes the alliance partner in each state except Bihar where I hv assumed BJP going alone.
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  5. Sagar alias Jacky
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    Sagar alias Jacky ELITE MEMBER

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    Many of the parties in the last paragraph have been former members of NDA too, so can't say they all are "congressi puppets", I would term them "opportunists", many of these parties will swing either way.
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  6. vstol jockey
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    vstol jockey PROFESSIONAL

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    In addition to above I expect BJP to win 3-4 seats in J&K, 4-6 in Andhra, 2-4 in Orisa and may be 2 in kerala. I am very sure that NDA without JDU will get 235-245 seats on its own and will need few Independents+AIADMK and may be small parties like TRS to form the govt at center.
  7. Himanshu Pandey
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    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. Staff Member MODERATOR

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    they need to work hard to get near to this and once they are there... a lot can be changed and several will join the ship

    BJP can win max-2 seats with allaince in J&K one of Jammu and another of Laddakh with rest I agree and there will be atleast 2-3 seats from tamilnadu too for BJP.
  8. rcscwc
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    rcscwc SENIOR MEMBER

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    BJP can hope to win only two from J&K, Jammu and Ladakh. Kashmir votes on religious lines.
  9. vstol jockey
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    vstol jockey PROFESSIONAL

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    Jammu, Udhampur and Laddakh for sure will be one by BJP. Doda also might fall for BJP.
  10. j123456
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    j123456 FULL MEMBER

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    I think UP 45 is virtually impossible 20 is a realistic figure there and at max 25-30. Bihar has 40 seats in LS and without Nitish both Nitish and BJP will face loses at max 10-15 seats for BJP there. Karnataka lalso 19 is a distant dream after recent elections >they can win 8-10 seats there. Haryana without INLD they wont win more than 2-3 seats. HOwever in TN , Andhra and WB they might win few seats. I think at max BJP with their patners might reach 220-225 at max without Nitish . They might need support of AIADMK and TMC who will win around 50 seats taken together along with some other smaller regional parties to form the next govt.
  11. truespirit
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    truespirit REGISTERED

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    The number of seats you have expected in UP, Rajasthan, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka & Bihar are overly optimistic. Not going to happen.
  12. vstol jockey
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    vstol jockey PROFESSIONAL

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    UP may be but not in anyother state.
  13. arun.id
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    arun.id SENIOR MEMBER

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    [MENTION=9724]Rock n Rolla[/MENTION] Do you think kerala will support Modi??
  14. Himanshu Pandey
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    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. Staff Member MODERATOR

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    its optimistic but not unachievable.. people are not happy with SP and BSP.. their traditional vote bank is angry from them on supporting and praising brahmins and muslims.. and this can be a window of opportunity... then there were several caste in OBC and SC who voted for BJP in past.. with better candidate BJP can touch 45 as it touched 58 once and if I remember right... the slogan was "abki bari atal bihari"... so with a good PM candidate uttar pradesh can support BJP as it has a far less votebank here now but the fan club of BJP is as large as it was in past.

    not for UP too if BJP works seriously here.
  15. Himanshu Pandey
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    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. Staff Member MODERATOR

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    No.... BJP is not a big force in kerala may be they can get 1-2 seats by luck or by putting some string candidate but nothing else.

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