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China–Pakistan Economic Corridor : News & Discussions

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by Agent_47, Nov 16, 2016.

  1. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    I once asked her to do that somewhere else. She refused. :D
     
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  2. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    A good analysis and inline with what I believe also but I think you have ommited one part- the cost to Pakistan's national psyche, and I am being serious. The weight that is being given to this one, rather trivial (in the grand scheme of things), infrastructure cum skill development(?) project (how it is financed is irrelevent for now) by many Pakistanis is rather alarming. Every negative or somewhat "damp" report I see about Pakistan's fundamental economic indicators is responded to with "but CPEC will change/improve this xfold". Some have rather modest claims for how a $46bn USD infrastructure project is going to (somehow) seriously effect the macro performance of Pakistan's economy but others have gone full ret@rd and are projecting (using god knows what logic) that CPEC will answer all of Pakistan's economic woes and increase trade, power generation, tax revenue and weirdly of all Pakistani industry increasing all by a factor of 10/20/30/infinity.

    With so much riding on CPEC the govt doesn't seem compelled to actually do anything else, as long as they keep uttering "CPEC" in some form or another then they are isolated from any internal criticsm. With no other major projects being explored in parrelel, all of Pakistan's eggs are riding in one rather weak basket so what will happen when these expectations turn out to be a bit........meh?


    CPEC is the gift that keeps on giving for the Pak establishment but that will never pay out for the Pak people in the way that is hoped for, what will be used in a decade or so time to keep hope.......CPEC 2.0?
     
  3. Levina

    Levina Admin- Social media Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    I did???
    When was that??
     
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  4. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    It was a thread in the Member's Club over there, a while ago.
     
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  5. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Sir, you assume that Pakistan has enough national pride left to worry about it. Further, you underestimate the gullibility of the Pakistani people. Once CPEC does not deliver on its hype, something else will be promised to them. This strategy has worked for 70 years already.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
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  6. mirage

    mirage FULL MEMBER

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    hello sir, apologies if i misunderstood you to be a chinese member here starting propaganda about so called CPEC which is 6 months unborn baby in the belly of pakistan
     
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  7. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    No apologies needed. Let us discuss the topic: CPEC.
     
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  8. Inactive

    Inactive Guest

    Sir ... I assure you that having known @VCheng for sometime now, and if you read his posts on the other forum, you will realise who or what he is ... in terms of character and knowledge.

    You can ask him to reveal his username elsewhere so that you may know of the calibre of the gentleman. I shall not take the liberty to give his id there, you may ask of him yourself and head over to see his write ups and why is he silenced so oft. But I assure you, engage him and you will find it a very fruitful and enlightening experience - enriching us with views from across the border not laced with rhetoric.

    Alas, few and rare people on either side of border such people are.

    Cheers and have a great day

    PS: I am sure we are among friends here .... from wherever we may originally hail.
     
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  9. mirage

    mirage FULL MEMBER

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    goodevening sir , there is not much to discuss about CPEC as of now bcoz the game has not started yet . as said earlier , it will be economic and strategic blunder for china , cpec will be , below mentioned news ( todays news ) reports and articles will be every day news both in china and pakistan .
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-china-idUSKBN16848H?il=0

    moreover i desire a debate in mandarin with china man
     
  10. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    CPEC has started already. To pretend otherwise would be foolish, in my view. It will gradually build up steam in a few years' time, although not quite the head being claimed.
     
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  11. mirage

    mirage FULL MEMBER

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    sure , that detail is available on the internet and elsewhere , but what i said is not available on the internet . only time will tell what will gradually built up stream in few years time . bye for now
     
  12. Marqueur

    Marqueur Peaceful Silence ELITE MEMBER

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    Pakistan will be paying China $90b against CPEC-related projects
    By Salman Siddiqui
    Published: March 12, 2017

    [​IMG]
    Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif meets Chinese President Xi Jinping. PHOTO: REUTERS

    KARACHI: Pakistan will end up paying $90 billion to China over a span of 30 years against the loan and investment portfolio worth $50 billion under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), report of a brokerage house estimated.

    The estimated return – sum of principal and interest on foreign currency debt and repayment of profits/dividend on equity investment – shows 40% return on investment.

    The amount increased to $54 billion after the inclusion of more projects in CPEC such as investments in Pakistan Railways and financing of the Karachi Circular Railways project. The volume of return would increase accordingly. Infrastructure and power projects – part of the CPEC portfolio and divided across time in terms of priority – are expected to be completed by fiscal year 2030.

    Pak-China partnership:Dasu power project to create 8,000 jobs for locals

    Topline Securities, in its report, said leading economists have estimated annual average repayments of $3-4 billion per year post fiscal year 2020.

    “Average annual repayment of CPEC will be $3 billion. {However, in medium term} between fiscal year 2020-25, it will range between $2.0-5.3 billion with average payment of $3.7 billion,” Saad Hashemy, an analyst at the brokerage house, said in a report titled, ‘Pakistan’s External Account Concerns and CPEC Repayment’.

    Another valid concern is over the repayment of CPEC-related projects. This is because most projects are being funded abroad and Pakistan is not seeing any significant inflow of foreign exchange.

    “It should be noted that project financing for CPEC is being done between Chinese companies and banks and around 25% of CPEC investment is expected to come in Pakistan,” he said. The report argued the repayment would remain manageable despite additional burden of debt servicing and repatriate of profits on equity investment in CPEC. The amount for additional repayment would be generated from the expected surge in exports, drop in imports and increased inflow of remittances.

    Trade

    The brokerage house assumed exports to grow by 4.5% a year till fiscal year 2025, which is higher than the previous decade’s average of 3%. This is because of expectation of CPEC-led higher GDP growth in the coming years and positive impact on local industry.

    Imports are expected to grow by 4% in line with last decade’s average. Further, remittances are expected to grow within 4-4.5%, which is lower than last couple of decade’s average of over 7% as Pakistani diaspora has to a great extent shifted to official channels of transferring money.

    “We expect current account deficit to remain on average at 1.5% of GDP between FY20-25 at a range of 1.2%-1.8%,” it said. In addition, Arif Habib Limited estimated, CPEC-related transportation would earn $400-500 million per annum to Pakistan, which would be sufficient for repayments.

    Revised macro estimates

    At the same time, Topline Securities said Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) in the first seven months of current fiscal year 2017 remained much higher than expectation at $4.7 billion, which is 88% higher than last year.

    “The higher CAD was mainly on account of weak exports of $12.3 billion, which posted a decline of 1.3% while imports of $25.5 billion increased by 9%,” it said. “Given the large CAD…, we are revising up our CAD forecast to $6.6 billion (from previous $4.7 billion), which is 2.2% of GDP,” it added.

    “Given higher CAD, we are revising down our year end forecast of foreign exchange reserves to $22-23 billion from previous estimate of over $25 billion. “These are all time high foreign exchange and provide 4-5 months of import cover (accounting for only reserves with State Bank of Pakistan of $17-18 billion),” it said.

    Published in The Express Tribune, March 12th, 2017.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1352995/pakistan-will-paying-china-90b-cpec-related-projects/
     
  13. Inactive

    Inactive Guest

    CPEC & Kashmir Issue

    Fahad Shah


    [​IMG]

    While the relationship between Pakistan and China is strengthening continuously, there is an underlying debate on how the two countries’ increasing cooperation will have an impact on the Kashmir dispute. Observers raise the question whether the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) can be useful in initiating a dialogue process for the resolution of this decades-old dispute between Pakistan and India.

    From a political economy perspective, such a mega project could have a negative impact if there is no peace in the region. But, if dealt smartly, it can go a long way in resolving not only the Kashmir issue but also other disputes in the region. However, this will largely depend on how India reacts to events unfolding in its next-door neighbours.

    The CPEC passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, a region which India claims is part of their territory. The economic corridor is connected to the Karakoram Highway, the world-class 1,300km highway at an elevation of 4,693 metres which is also called the ‘eighth wonder of the world’. Comprising a number of development projects, the $46 billion worth CPEC connects Pakistan and China through networks of roads and railways.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________

    The chief minister of held Kashmir has suggested building a corridor between South Asia and Central Asia with Kashmir as its nucleus

    It is the reason that India opposes the CPEC project, claiming that it passes through a disputed region.


    Majority of mainstream political parties and pro-freedom groups in India-held Kashmir have so far not found a connection between the CPEC and the Kashmir dispute. Mehbooba Mufti, the chief minister of India-held Kashmir, has recently suggested building of a corridor — similar to the CPEC — between South Asia and Central Asia with Kashmir as its nucleus. She points out that “taking advantage of its geographical location, Jammu and Kashmir could become a nucleus towards forging a new economic alliance in the region”.

    Talking about economic dynamics that could influence political issues has usually not been the forte of Kashmiri politicians. But perhaps the rise of China and the use of a territory which is considered by India as part of the disputed one have made politicians in the occupied valley pay attention to new developments in the region.

    The prominent pro-freedom leader of Hurriyat Conference, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, believes that Kashmir can become a gateway to Central Asia. In a recent interview, he said that in terms of larger economic activity everybody wanted to be part of the CPEC.

    He finds the mega project as an opportunity for the region to become part of the ancient Silk Route, even before the resolution of the Kashmir issue. “Kashmir can be a gateway for India as well. I am sure India will also want to be a part of the CPEC. Coming year is going to be very interesting as economic and political equations are going to be changed…”

    However, no one is giving any blueprint for such a plan, especially when India is continuously opposing the CPEC. India is also not happy over holding of elections in Gilgit-Baltistan by Pakistan, claiming that it is against the disputed nature of the region.

    Though China has always supported Pakistan over the Kashmir dispute, it wants Pakistan and India to resolve this issue through dialogue.

    Mostly people in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan believe that if India joins the CPEC it will benefit both countries, especially people in the occupied valley.

    Yasin Malik of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front was the first to oppose any change in the status of Gilgit-Baltistan. He has written a letter to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, reminding him that any change in the status of the region would lead India to consolidate its hold on the held Kashmir.

    In a reply, PM Sharif told Mr Malik that his concerns and suggestions were valuable and they were being examined with care. “I would like to make it unambiguously clear that Pakistan is fully aware of the sensitivities attached to Gilgit-Baltistan with regard to Jammu and Kashmir dispute,” he had said in the reply to Mr Malik.

    Some observers in occupied Kashmir are of the opinion that making Kashmir an entry point to the CPEC may only benefit India. But at the same time they believe that inclusion of India in the mega project can pave the way for resolution of its dispute with Pakistan.

    If India decides to join the CPEC or even find a way to connect the occupied valley with the economic corridor, the politics of the region would take a new turn. This would lead to increasing engagement between the two sides and help connect people through economic interests.

    The observers are of the view that such a decision would prove to be a game-changer for the region. It would reduce political tension in South Asia and initiate a new chapter of economic development in the region.

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1320621/cpec-and-kashmir-issue
     
  14. Robinhood Pandey

    Robinhood Pandey SECOND IN COMMAND Staff Member SECTION CHIEF

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  15. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Nice looking lass. Pretty much the only reason I clicked it :p
     
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