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China's Economic News

Discussion in 'China & Asia Pacific' started by Martian, Aug 6, 2010.

  1. RMLOVER

    RMLOVER Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    2016 Top 10 Chinese city GDP and GDP per head

    http://www.fengup.com/news/64644.html

    USD 1.00=RMB6.9

    GDP(USD) / Population / GDP per head


    1. Shanghai / 398.06 billions 24.15 millions USD16480.97

    2. Beijing / 360.85 billions 21.72 millions USD16606.83

    3. Guangzhou / 284.21 billions 13.5 millions USD21052.59

    4. Shenzhen / 282.50 billions 11.9 millions USD23739.49

    5. Tianjin / 259.20 billions 15.46 millions USD16765.84

    6. Chongqing / 254.47 billions 30.15 millions USD8440.13

    7. Suzhou / 224.27 billions 10.61 millions USD21137.60

    8. Chengdu / 176.37 billions 14.65 millions USD12038.90

    9. Wuhan / 172.64 billions 10.6 millions USD16286.79

    10.Hangzhou / 160.15 billions 9.01 millions USD17774.69
     
  2. X_Killer

    X_Killer Captain FULL MEMBER

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  3. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Moody's downgrades China's credit ratings




    [​IMG]Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
    China's credit rating has been cut over fears that growth in the world's second-biggest economy will slow in the coming years.

    Moody's, one of the world's big three ratings agencies, cut China by one notch from A1 to Aa3.

    It was the first time the agency has downgraded the country since 1989.

    China's finance ministry said Moody's was exaggerating the mainland's economic difficulties and underestimating reform efforts.

    The downgrade could raise the cost of borrowing for the Chinese government.

    The ratings agency also changed its outlook for China to stable from negative.

    Moody's said that the downgrade reflected expectations that China's financial strength would "erode somewhat over the coming years, with the economy-wide debt continuing to rise as potential growth slows".

    The Chinese economy expanded by 6.7% in 2016 compared with 6.9% the previous year, the slowest growth since 1990.



    Analysis

    [​IMG]Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
    By Karishma Vaswani, Asia business correspondent

    This is the first time that Moody's has cut its investors ratings on Chinese debt in more than a quarter of a century, so it is pretty significant.

    However, it is not the first time that international institutions have sounded alarm bells about China's rising debt levels. They have been going off for the past few years.

    What this ratings downgrade on China's debt boils down to is whether you believe the Chinese government has the ability to write off this debt. Does Beijing somehow have an ability to extend infinite credit lines, or at least reduce debt levels? And can it do so while trying to maintain strong economic growth figures?

    Moody's has obviously come down on the side of the naysayers.

    In its statement it points to slowing Chinese growth and rising debt levels to keep the economy expanding. It also says that reforms may take a backseat to growth priorities.


    Remember: this is a critical time for President Xi Jinping, who faces a key political congress towards the end of the year. A strong economy gives him credibility and legitimacy - and China observers tell me that the perception of stable growth is crucial for him at this time.

    This is why negative assessments from international financial institutions such as Moody's on Chinese debt are unlikely to go down well in Beijing.

    China's debt stands at something like 260% to GDP. Higher debt levels usually mean a higher level of risk.

    But it is worth noting that most of this debt is held by Chinese state-owned enterprises or "quasi-state" like entities - not international investors - so it is less likely to have a spillover effect into other economies.

    All the same, as the world's second-largest economy, what happens in China matters to the rest of the world.

    China's impact on global economy


    China is the world's second-biggest importer of both goods and services.

    It also plays an important role as a buyer of oil and other commodities, and its slowdown has been a factor in the decline in the prices of such goods.

    Beijing's aim to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption has led to major challenges for manufacturers, and there have been layoffs - especially in heavily staffed state-run sectors such as the steel industry.

    The downgrade comes as Beijing tries to clean up its lending practices, which have been viewed as a threat to financial stability.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40024503
     
  4. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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  5. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    China rejects ‘inappropriate’ credit downgrade, says it ‘exaggerates difficulties’


    • China has rejected Moody's credit downgrade.
    • The finance ministry says the decision exaggerates the country's problems and underestimates its reform agenda.


    Karen Gilchrist | @_karengilchrist

    1 Hour AgoCNBC.com


    16
    SHARES














    [​IMG]
    Moody's downgrade confirms what we know about China's debt: Strategist 3 Hours Ago | 03:13


    China has rejected a move by Moody's to lower its credit rating, saying the downgrade exaggerates the difficulties facing the economy and underestimates the government's reform agenda.

    The country's finance ministry claimed the credit rating agency used "inappropriate methodology" in its decision to lower long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings from "Aa3" to "A1".

    "Moody's views that China's non-financial debt will rise rapidly and the government would continue to maintain growth via stimulus measures are exaggerating difficulties facing the Chinese economy," the finance ministry said in a statement Wednesday, translated by Reuters.


    It added that the moves are "underestimating the Chinese government's ability to deepen supply-side structural reform and appropriately expand aggregate demand."




    [​IMG]
    China ratings downgrade 'has no major impact' 5 Hours Ago | 01:42


    Moody's said that the downgrade reflects its expectation that China's financial strength will "erode somewhat" over the coming years.

    The one-notch downgrade marks the first time Moody's has lowered China's credit rating in almost 30 years. It last downgraded the country in 1989.

    It comes as the government moves ahead with its ambitious reform agenda, which it hopes will move the country away from its traditional dependence on manufacturing and towards a services-led economy.

    Moody's argues, however, that these aims will be hampered somewhat by the country's "economy-wide debt", which it says is set to rise as economic growth slows.

    Though the new rating will likely modestly increase the cost of borrowing for the Chinese government, it remains within the investment grade rating range.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/24/chin...wngrade-says-it-exaggerates-difficulties.html
     
  6. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    China's reforms not enough to arrest mounting debt: Moody's

    [​IMG]
    FILE PHOTO: A labourer has his dinner under his shed at a construction site of a residential complex in Hefei, Anhui province, August 1, 2012.REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

    By Yawen Chen and Ryan Woo | BEIJING

    China's structural reforms will slow the pace of its debt build-up but will not be enough to arrest it, and another credit rating cut for the country is possible down the road unless it gets its ballooning credit in check, officials at Moody's said.

    The comments came two days after Moody's downgraded China's sovereign ratings by one notch to A1, saying it expects the financial strength of the world's second-largest economy to erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to mount.

    In announcing the downgrade, Moody's Investors Service also changed its outlook on China from "negative" to "stable", suggesting no further ratings changes for some time.

    China has strongly criticized the downgrade, asserting it was based on "inappropriate methodology", exaggerating difficulties facing the economy and underestimating the government's reform efforts.

    In response, senior Moody's official Marie Diron said on Friday that the ratings agency has been encouraged by the "vast reform agenda" undertaken by the Chinese authorities to contain risks from the rapid rise in debt.

    However, while Moody's believes the reforms may slow the pace at which debt is rising, they will not be enough to arrest the trend and levels will not drop dramatically, Diron said.

    Diron said China's economic recovery since late last year was mainly thanks to policy stimulus, and expects Beijing will continue to rely on pump-priming to meet its official economic growth targets, adding to the debt overhang.

    Moody's also is waiting to see how some of the announced measures, such as reining in local government finances, are actually implemented, Diron, associate managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, told reporters in a webcast.

    China may no longer get an A1 rating if there are signs that debt is growing at a pace that exceeds Moody's expectations, Li Xiujun, vice president of credit strategy and standards at the ratings agency, said in the same webcast.

    "If in the future China's structural reforms can prevent its leverage from rising more effectively without increasing risks in the banking and shadow banking sector, then it will have a positive impact on China's rating," Li said.

    But Li added: "If there are signs that China's debt will keep rising and the rate of growth is beyond our expectations, leading to serious capital misallocation, then it will continue to weigh on economic growth in the medium term and impact the sovereign rating negatively."

    "China may no longer suit the requirement of A1 rating."

    Li did not give a specific target for debt levels nor a timeframe for further assessments.

    Moody's expects China's growth to slow to around 5 percent in coming years, from 6.7 percent last year, compounding the difficulty of reducing debt. But Diron said the economy will remain robust, and the likelihood of a hard landing is slim.



    STIMULUS SPREE

    Government-led stimulus has been a major driver of China's economic growth over recent years, but has also been accompanied by runaway credit growth that has created a mountain of debt - now at nearly 300 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

    Some analysts are more worried about the speed at which the debt has accumulated than its absolute level, noting much of the debt and the banking system is controlled by the central government.

    UBS estimates that government debt, including explicit and quasi-government debt, rose to 68 percent of GDP in 2016 from 62 percent in 2015, while corporate debt climbed to 164 percent of GDP in 2016 from 153 percent the previous year.

    A growing number of economists believe that a massive bank bailout may be inevitable in China as bad loans mount. Last September, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that excessive credit growth in China signaled an increasing risk of a banking crisis within three years.

    ALSO IN BUSINESS NEWS


    IS BEIJING MAKING PROGRESS?

    The Moody's downgrade was seen as largely symbolic because China has relatively little foreign debt and local markets are influenced more by domestic factors, with many companies enjoying stronger credit ratings from home-grown agencies than they would in the West.

    Still, the rating demotion highlighted investor worries over whether China has the will and ability to contain rising risks stemming from years of credit-fueled stimulus, without triggering financial shocks or dampening economic growth.

    China has vowed to lower debt levels by rolling out measures such as debt-to-equity swaps, reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and reducing excess industrial capacity.

    In recent months, regulators have issued a flurry of measures to clamp down on the shadow banking sector while the central bank has gingerly raised short-term interest rates.

    But moves so far have been cautious, especially heading into a key political leadership reshuffle later this year.

    The autumn's Communist Party Congress is President Xi Jinping's most important event of the year, where a new generation of up and coming leaders will be ushered into the Standing Committee, China’s elite ruling inner core.

    But party congresses are always tricky affairs, as different power bases compete for influence, so the government will be keen to ensure there are no distractions like financial or economic problems or diplomatic confrontations.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-rating-idUSKBN18M06Z
     
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  7. An Indian

    An Indian 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Explaining China’s “Import Surge” in Seven Pictures

    https://mishtalk.com/2017/06/08/explaining-chinas-import-surge-in-four-simple-pictures/

    08 Thursday Jun 2017

    Posted by Mish | June 8, 2017 1:57:05 | Economics

    Leave a comment


    As a follow-up to China Exports, Imports Soar: Global Trade Outlook Improving? let’s investigate China’s “Import Surge” with a series of pictures.

    China Imports and Exports Year-Over-Year

    [​IMG]

    The above from ZeroHedge China Trade Data Beats As Crude Demand Surges (Ahead Of Maintenance)

    Crude Monthly Year-Over-Year Price Rise Percent

    [​IMG]

    Crude Monthly Year-Over-Year Dollar Increase

    [​IMG]

    US Trade in Goods and Services

    [​IMG]

    US Trade in Goods and Services Moving Average

    [​IMG]

    US Trade Deficit by Country Through April

    [​IMG]

    US Trade with China 2017 vs 2016

    [​IMG]

    The idea that global trade is improving is largely a commodity-induced fantasy related primarily to the price of oil.

    Related Articles

    1. China Exports, Imports Soar: Global Trade Outlook Improving?
    2. Trade Deficit Widens: Cascade of Bad News Accelerates, Trump Will Howl
    Mike “Mish” Shedlock
     
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  8. RMLOVER

    RMLOVER Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Asia’s first automated container terminal, at Port of Qingdao, China




    https://www.porttechnology.org/news/asia_enters_fully_automated_terminal_era
    Asia Enters Fully Automated Terminal Era
    15 May 2017 06.00pm

    [​IMG]
    Qingdao New Qianwan Container Terminal (QQCTN) in China has become Asia’s first fully automated port terminal after servicing its first containership, the 13,386 TEU COSCO France, on May 11, 2017.
    After three years of development, the terminal has completed its first fully automated phase to upgrade two berths across 660 metres of quay with seven STS cranes operated by remote control, 38 automated stacking cranes (ASCs) and 38 battery-powered automated guided vehicles (AGVs).

    The automation project consists of three phases.

    Phase one covers two berths with 1.5 million TEU, while additional phases plan to automate a total of six berths and support 5.2 million TEUs in the future.

    The terminal is controlled by laser scanners and positioning systems that can locate the four corners of each container to accurately clamp and move them onto driverless trucks.

    This technology allows the terminal to operate in complete darkness during the night, which has helped reduce the terminal's labour costs by 70% and increase efficiency by 30%.

    An example of where this has taken effect is the amount of workers required to unload a cargo ship as this has been reduced from 60 to nine.

    Automated guided vehicles are programmed with routes and tasks and also have the artificial intelligence to recognise when a recharge is needed.

    The terminal is part of China’s One Belt One Road initiative and as a result QQCTN is planning to operate sustainably around the clock with four more fully automated berths.

    Watch: Why China is Building a New Silk Road
    A series of interviews by New China TV have explored the launch (below).

    The manager of the terminal's automated quay cranes, who is translated from Chinese to English, explains that the intellectual property of the port has been independently designed.

    Focusing on the different lengths of the quay crane girders, he said: “We have chosen this design through a lot of simulation and emulation to create efficiencies.

    “We have cut the length of the backreach from the typical 28 metres to twelve metres in order to … optimise the structure of the quay crane and lower the cost.

    “Most importantly, it has lowered the tire pressure across the whole terminal to make efficiencies.”

    A worker from one of the port's less automated terminals, also translated, evaluated the new development.

    Highlighting the advantages, he said: “It cuts the numbers of the staff and lowers the dependence on quay crane drivers.

    “Another very important advantage is that the automated terminal guarantees the safety of our drivers … in an automated terminal the workers are in the central control room.”

    Watch the video below:
     
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  9. RMLOVER

    RMLOVER Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    China Expands Uses & Markets for Its HTGRs
    Posted on March 18, 2017by djysrv
    Feasibility study for Saudi Arabian HTGR project
    https://neutronbytes.com/2017/03/18/china-expands-uses-markets-for-its-htgrs/


    (World Nuclear News) (Wire Services) China and Saudi Arabia have signed a cooperation agreement for a joint study on the feasibility of constructing high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs).

    The agreement was signed this week in Beijing by China Nuclear Energy Engineering Group (CNEC) president Jun Gu and King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) president Hashim bin Abdullah Yamani. The signing was witnessed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman.

    In a statement, CNEC said that under the agreement the two companies will develop system solutions for the investment and construction of HTGRs. They will also examine cooperation in intellectual property and the development of a domestic industrial supply chain for HTGRs built in Saudi Arabia. The feasibility study, it said, will also support the Saudi government in its decisions related to an HTGR project.

    The latest agreement follows the signing in January of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between China and Saudi Arabia on the construction of HTGRs.

    CNEC said that since the signing of that MOU, the two countries have been looking at site selection for the project, building a regulatory system, training personnel and other aspects of the project.

    Although Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program is in its infancy, the Kingdom had at one time plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years. The plan identified nuclear power as essential to help meet growing energy demand for both electricity generation and water desalination, while reducing reliance on depleting hydrocarbon resources.

    However, the plan was shelved due to several factors including its ambitious nature relative to the ability of Saudi Arabia to manage it. Also, the precipitous drop in oil prices made the huge program unaffordable. At even the bargain price of $4,000/Kw, 16 Gb of nuclear power came with a stratospheric price tag. Instead, Saudi Arabia has committed to a program of deploying solar energy power stations, but it has not given up on nuclear energy.

    Back in September 2015, contracts were signed between the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and KA-CARE to support their cooperation in developing KAERI’s SMART (System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor). This is a 330 MWt (100 MWe) pressurized water reactor with integral steam generators and advanced safety features.

    CNEC said its credibility to present the HTGR for export is based on a demonstration HTR-PM unit under construction at Shidaowan near Weihai city in China’s Shandong province. That plant will initially comprise twin HTR-PM reactor modules driving a single 210 MWe steam turbine. Construction started in late 2012 and it is scheduled to start commercial operation in late 2017.

    A proposal to construct two 600 MWe HTRs at Ruijin city in China’s Jiangxi province passed a preliminary feasibility review in early 2015. The design of the Ruijin HTRs is based on the smaller Shidaowan demonstration HTR-PM. Construction of the Ruijin reactors is expected to start next year, with grid connection in 2021.

    CNEC has been actively promoting its HTR technology overseas and has already signed agreements with other countries – including the UAE and South Africa to consider the construction of HTGR plants. Last August CNEC signed an agreement with Indonesia’s National Atomic Energy Agency (Batan) to jointly develop an HTGR in Indonesia.

    China’s 4th generation nuclear power plant to go online in 2018

    (CCTV) China has unveiled its 13th five-year plan on its nuclear power industry. A number of projects will be up and running in the coming few years. One of them is a high temperature gas-cooled reactor, or HTGR, that is under construction in east China’s Shandong Province. This 4th generation nuclear power plant is expected to generate power in 2018. (English language video)

    “The HTGR is expected to be connected to the grid and generate power in 2018. China’s HTGR is now at the forefront of the world,” Wang Yiren, vice chairman of China Atomic Energy Authority, said in the video interview.

    He claims that the HTGR’s power-generating efficiency is 25 percent higher than that of the nuclear power units that are currently in operation in China. And he also claims it will greatly cut costs as modular construction is expected to shorten the construction period once the volume of orders justifies building a factory to produce them.

    China Plans Deployment of HTGRs for Central Heating

    (China Daily) As China aims to reduce coal consumption to curb pollution, leaders in the nuclear industry have called for construction of low-temperature mini reactors to provide cleaner heating for residential use in North China.

    Citing safety, flexibility and efficiency, executives in China’s nuclear power sector have pitched the use of small-scale reactors as an alternative heat source in winter to reduce dependence on plants powered by coal which creates air pollution.

    Qian Tianlin, general manager of China Nuclear New Energy Investment, said that the technology of small-scale nuclear reactors, which feature low and controllable core temperatures, is mature enough for trial use.

    “Generating heating for a residential district is just one function of the mini nuclear reactors that has bright prospects,” Qian said.

    “Compared to traditional thermal sources, nuclear reactors could generate heat without carbon emissions and thus should be seriously considered as a replacement for coal-burning heat,” said Qian.

    There is a lot of activity in China with HTGRs

    Wang Shoujun, chairman of China National Nuclear Corp, said that China’s first small reactor developed by CNNC for practical use, the ACP100, is expected to be built in Changjiang Li autonomous county, Hainan province, at the end of 2017 with a unit capacity of 125MW.

    The operation of such mini reactors is secure because of the much lower core temperature and internal pressure than a typical reactor, said Wan Gang, head of the China Institute of Atomic Energy.

    “Technically, it is safe for civilian use in urban areas at the moment,” Wan said.

    CNEC has been working with Tsinghua University since 2003 on the design, construction and commercialization of HTR technology. A demonstration HTR-PM unit is under construction at Shidaowan near Weihai city in China’s Shandong province.

    That plant will initially comprise twin HTR-PM reactor modules driving a single 210 MWe steam turbine. Construction started in late 2012 and commercial operation is scheduled to start in late 2017.

    A proposal to construct two 600 MWe HTRs at Ruijin city in China’s Jiangxi province passed a preliminary feasibility review in early 2015. The design of the Ruijin HTRs is based on the smaller Shidaowan demonstration HTR-PM. Construction of the Ruijin reactors is expected to start next year, with grid connection in 2021.

    China Enters Nuclear Energy Market in Indonesia

    (WNN) China Nuclear Engineering Corporation (CNEC) has signed an agreement with Indonesia’s National Atomic Energy Agency (Batan) to jointly develop a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) in Indonesia.

    In August 2016 a joint project development plan was signed by CNEC chairman Wang Shoujun and Batan chairman Djarot Sulistio Wisnubroto. Under the agreement, CNEC and Batan intend to cooperate on an Indonesian HTGR project and to train workers.

    Batan is promoting the introduction of nuclear power plants in Indonesia. It is planning for small HTGRs (up to 100 MWe) for deployment on Kalimantan, Sulawesi and other islands to supply power and heat for industrial use. It is considering building a test and demonstration HTGR with an electrical output of 3-10 MWe and a thermal output of 10-30 MWt.

    In August 2014, Batan signed a cooperation agreement with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) on research and development of HTGRs. JAEA has developed a small prototype gas-cooled reactor, the High-Temperature Test Reactor. This is a 30 MWt graphite-moderated helium gas-cooled reactor which achieved first criticality in November 1998.

    In April 2015, Rosatom announced that a consortium of Russian and Indonesian companies led by NUKEM Technologies had won a contract for the preliminary design of a multi-purpose 10 MWe HTGR at Serpong in Indonesia.

    China’s CNEC said the signing of the agreement with Indonesia “marks further substantial progress in the overseas promotion of HTR technology”.
     
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  10. An Indian

    An Indian 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Ed Yardeni on China:
    http://blog.yardeni.com/2017/07/china-xi-dynastys-debt-extravaganza.html

    China: The Xi Dynasty’s Debt Extravaganza


    [​IMG]
    China’s real GDP rose 6.9% y/y during Q2. During the quarter, it rose 6.7% (saar), which it’s been hovering around since the end of 2013. That’s a slowdown from the 10%-plus pace that was the norm in the years prior to the global financial crisis of 2008 and for a couple of years afterwards. Nevertheless, China’s growth rate is impressive compared to those in most other countries in the world. Even more impressive is how much credit it is taking to prop up China’s growth. Of course, this isn’t impressive in a positive way, since economic growth financed by excessive debt often ends badly.

    Nevertheless, I am not among China’s doomsayers. I don’t want to bet against over a billion Chinese people who are mostly hard-working, entrepreneurial, aspirational, and materialistic—kind of like Americans. Instead of a big-bang implosion, China may follow the path of Japan. China is going down the same demographic road as Japan, with a rapidly aging population. Both countries have piled up lots of debt to boost growth. Both are financing their debt extravaganzas mostly internally. Both of their central banks are pumping massive amounts of liquidity into their economies. So, like Japan, China’s economic growth inevitably will slow as the population continues to age. All the injections of debt are akin to injections of Botox, which can make you look younger while you age and slow down. Consider the following:

    (1) Social financing. Total social financing over the past 12 months through June rose by a record 19.2 trillion yuan, or a near-record US$2.8 trillion. It has been on a tear since the Chinese government pumped up the economy in response to the financial crisis of 2008. The country has become increasingly addicted to debt, and can’t seem to break the habit despite government officials’ previous assurances that will happen. It hasn’t happened so far because the government hasn’t figured out any other way (such as free-market capitalism) to boost growth. Since Premier Xi Jinping assumed command during November 2012, social financing has totaled a whopping $11.2 trillion, with bank loans up $6.4 trillion!

    (2) Bank loans & M2. Bank loans are the largest component of social financing. Over the past 12 months through June, they rose by a record 13.2 yuan, or a record US$1.9 trillion. Astonishingly, bank loans have more than tripled since the end of 2008, soaring by 280% to a record $16.8 trillion during June.

    The good news—I guess—is that all of this bank debt has been financed entirely by an increase in M2. So the Chinese owe it to themselves, similar to what has been happening in Japan for many years.

    (3) Shadow banking system. Also mildly encouraging—I guess—is that the authorities seem to be making a bit of progress throttling back the shadow banking system. I estimate shadow banking activity by subtracting bank lending from total social financing. Doing so suggests that on a 12-month basis, the shadow banks accounted for a record 55.1% of social financing through May 2013. That percentage fell to a recent low of 25.1% through July 2016. It was back up to 31.3% in June of this year.

    (4) Industrial production & trade. Just for fun, I compare the growth rates of China’s bank loans to industrial production and track the ratio of the former to the latter. The ratio of bank loans to industrial production confirms my concerns about China’s increasingly debt-financed growth. All that debt seems to be having a decreasing impact on boosting economic growth. The ratio was relatively stable around 100 from 2000-2008. Since then, it has risen sharply and persistently to a record 170 during June. The Chinese seem to be getting less and less output bang per yuan.

    The good news is that China’s trade data (in yuan) has improved significantly since early last year, with both exports and imports near record highs in June. The y/y growth rates for these categories were strong at 16.9% and 22.6%. The exports data suggest that the global economy is growing solidly, though some of that may be due to the stimulus provided indirectly by China’s ongoing borrowing binge.

    (5) Demographics. Weighing on China’s growth rate is its geriatric demographic profile. The country’s fertility rate dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman during 1995, and is expected to remain below that level through the end of the century, according to UN projections. The growth rate of the population is projected to turn negative during 2033. The growth rate of the working-age population (WAP) already turned negative during 2016 and is expected to remain so through the end of the century—with WAP falling to 558 million from a peak of 1,015 million during 2015.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. RMLOVER

    RMLOVER Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    China Reclaims Spot as World's Biggest Holder of Treasuries
    By
    Andrew Mayeda
    and
    Katherine Greifeld
    August 15, 2017, 10:00 PM GMT+2 August 15, 2017, 11:33 PM GMT+2

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-as-world-s-biggest-holder-of-u-s-treasuries
    • Japan had held top position since October before China rebound
    • China holds $1.15 trillion in June, up $44.3 billion from May
    Start your day with what's moving markets in Asia. Sign up here to receive our newsletter.

    China reclaimed its position as the top foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries after increasing its holdings for the fifth straight month.

    China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, notes and bills rose to $1.15 trillion in June, up $44.3 billion from a month earlier, according to Treasury Department data released Tuesday in Washington. Japan owned $1.09 trillion, a decrease of $20.5 billion from its total in May. Japan had overtaken China in October as the largest holder of American government bonds, the figures showed.

    The two countries account for more than a third of all foreign ownership of Treasuries, which gained by $47.7 billion in June to $6.17 trillion, the figures showed.

    rose for sixth straight month to $3.08 trillion in July as the yuan strengthened and economic growth remained strong. Stricter capital controls and a stabilizing currency this year have eased outflow pressures as policy makers encourage foreign investors to channel more money into the country. The yuan has climbed nearly 4 percent against the dollar this year, after declining about 7 percent in 2016.


    Strong trade flows between the U.S. and China have helped the country’s exporters, boosting China’s demand for U.S. sovereign debt. China’s holdings will likely continue to increase in the coming months, said Thomas Simons, a senior economist at Jefferies LLC in New York.

    “I don’t think China’s done buying, given their trade balance with the U.S.,” Simons said. “The trade flows are going to create more demand for Treasuries.”

    Belgium’s ownership of Treasuries, often seen as a home to China’s custodial accounts, fell in June to $98.3 billion.

    The Treasury report, which also contains data on international capital flows, showed a net inflow into the U.S. long-term securities of $34.4 billion from $91.9 billion in May. It showed a total cross-border inflow, including short-term securities such as Treasury bills and stock swaps, of $7.7 billion following $54.7 billion the prior month.
     
  12. hy_003

    hy_003 FULL MEMBER

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    what a detailed data,I live in Chengdu,welcome to Chengdu
     

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  13. hy_003

    hy_003 FULL MEMBER

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    Shenzhen has caught up with Spain in GDP per head,a nice city!!
     
  14. RMFAN

    RMFAN Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en...obal-manufacturing-competitiveness-index.html

    With the release of the 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (GMCI), Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (Deloitte Global) and the Council on Competitiveness (the Council) in the US build upon the GMCI research, with prior studies published in 2010 and 2013. The results of the 2016 study clearly show the ongoing influence manufacturing has on driving global economies. From its influence on infrastructure development, job creation, and contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) on both an overall and per capita basis, a strong manufacturing sector creates a clear path toward economic prosperity.


    [​IMG]
     
  15. RMFAN

    RMFAN Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/

    2016 PRODUCTION STATISTICS

    Country /Cars/ Commercial vehicles /Total /% change


    Total
    72,105,435 22,871,134 94,976,569 4.5%

    China 24,420,744 /3,698,050 /28,118,794 /14.5%

    Japan 7,873,886 /1,330,704/ 9,204,590 /-0.8%
    Germany 5,746,808/ 315,754/ 6,062,562/ 0.5%
    USA 3,934,357/ 8,263,780/ 12,198,137 /0.8%
    South Korea 3,859,991 /368,518 /4,228,509 /-7.2%
    India 3,677,605 /811,360 /4,488,965 /7.9%
    Spain 2,354,117 /531,805 /2,885,922 /5.6%
    Mexico 1,993,168/ 1,604,294/ 3,597,462 /0.9%
    Brazil 1,778,464 /377,892 /2,156,356/ -11.2%
    UK 1,722,698 /93,924 /1,816,622/ 8.0%
    France 1,626,000/ 456,000 /2,082,000/ 5.6%
    Czech Rep. 1,344,182/ 5,714/ 1,349,896 /8.3%
    Russia 1,124,774 /179,215/ 1,303,989/ -5.4%
     

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