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China's 'peaceful' coercion

Discussion in 'China & Asia Pacific' started by Agent_47, Oct 20, 2011.

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  1. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    A recent Pentagon report warns India about challenges posed by China's frenetic defence modernisation, after China launched its first aircraft carrier, the instrument of power projection. China's peaceful rise is best determined by distinguishing between its military capabilities and intentions.

    China's latest defence White Paper, the seventh since 1998, aims to win local wars in conditions of informatisation. It defines Tibet, Taiwan and terrorism as three challenges coupled with three evils of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism.

    Priority is on the navy that has plans for a blue-water force to protect China's energy and trade flows: it is the largest trading nation, with $1.2-trillion cargo on the high seas. With a strategy of two oceans, Pacific and Indian, it needs bases and dual-use port facilities euphemistically called the String of Pearls. Five aircraft carriers will be the pivots of five carrier groups in the next decade.

    PLA Navy seeks to establish 'indisputable sovereignty' in the South China Sea and islands, making plausible high-end scenarios of air and naval engagements with rivals. Further, it wants to regain its historical pre-eminence in east Asia, evict the US from the region and marginalise India in south and east Asia.

    Modernisation of the air force began in 1984. It has 30 divisions (more than 2,000 fighter jets) including fourth-generation-plus aircraft like J 20, which, when fully developed, will be similar to the Indo-Russian fifth-generation aircraft. It has a stealth bomber and high-altitude long-range interceptor aircraft.

    The 1.4-million army is no longer Long March vintage, but officer graduates with a scientific outlook. Rapid reaction forces are networked with real-time intelligence and surveillance. Of the seven military regions, Lanzhou and Chengdu take care of India, and 80 missile launchers are capable of hitting anywhere in east and central India.

    The nuclear forces have ICBM capability complimented by a nuclear triad. The latest DF 21 D anti-ship missile puts US carrier groups in the Pacific at risk. China has anti-satellite and anti-missile missiles and placed the entire India-China border under drone surveillance, 25 types of UAVs including one for anti-terrorism are being developed. China has also tested its integrated air defence capabilities. This military strength is not battle-tested. In 1978, PLA sought to teach Vietnam a lesson but got a bloody nose.

    Military capability is backed by defence diplomacy. China has established defence and security dialogues with 22 nations, sent out 175 military delegations and received 220 defence delegations during 2010-11. It sends 1,200 students to 100 military institutions in 30 countries. For the first time, PLA has thousands of soldiers on non-combat UN peacekeeping missions.

    While China's defence industry is in catch-up mode, it has made impressive gains for acquiring critical technologies, mainly via reverse engineering and even stealing. The US Minerva project is monitoring Chinese progress in technology development and acquisition. Beijing's annual defence exports are $2 billion (India's are $150 million), making it the world's biggest exporter of defence equipment.

    By modest estimates, China's military spending in 2011 was around $91.5 billion though US military puts it at $150 billion. Beijing invests $100 billion on internal security which it calls domestic stability maintenance for regime stability, and is the monopoly of China's Communist Party.

    For law enforcement, especially in Xinjiang and Tibet, it has half a million paramilitaries with unknown number of secret police to deal with 1,00,000 mass protests annually across China. With threats of cross-border and homegrown terrorism, naxalism and insurgencies in northeast and J&K, India spends a pittance on internal security.

    US analysts concede that China will overtake the US economy by 2025 but will probably not catch up militarily any time soon, given the technology gap between the two. Due to the shrinking US budget, huge cuts are contemplated in defence spending over the next 5-7 years that could make the catch-up estimate go awry.

    It is India that has real catching up to do in its military modernisation and infrastructure development to deter the PLA. China's assertiveness is increasingly evident in its dealings with India, whether it is the border dispute, Tibet, Pakistan or the visa issue.

    It has unilaterally revoked a key parameter on border adjustment. It has lopped off the Jammu & Kashmir portion of the border and let PLA deploy in PoK's northern areas in the guise of development. China is seeking to trilateralise a bilateral border dispute though it maintains that J&K has to be resolved between India and Pakistan.

    China's aim is to delay resolution of the border dispute to a point where its military capability is unassailable. It will then dictate a solution on its terms. Beijing calls this a 'no-contact war', simply, coercion. This is peaceful rise with Chinese characteristics.

    China's 'peaceful' coercion - Economic Times
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2011
  2. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Nice article...good read.
     
  3. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    After driving at a snail’s pace on an axle breaking virtually non-existent mountain road from Gangtok, truth hits one hard at the windy 14,140 feet high Nathu La on the ancient silk route to Lhasa in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China.
    From the zero-line of the heavily guarded pass, starts a two-lane black top road which traverses the rarefied Tibetan plateau and reaches Lhasa, some 428 kilometres away, in just seven hours on vehicle speeds up to 160 kmph. The road quality and its capability in military terms is enough to sober any Indian jingoist advocating a pro-active stance against Beijing as the same disparity prevails all along the 4,057 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) dividing India and China. Available figures on ground reveal that the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) in Tibet has become more lean and mean from the past with at least four rapid reaction forces backing up the regular border deployments. Given that the Chinese PLA still views India through the Tibet prism since Dalai Lama crossed over to Tezpur in 1959, Beijing has dramatically increased its military capabilities through infrastructure up-gradation along the LAC since 1995. Consider this:
    • Roads: connection to all counties in Tibet with borders roads has been completed with up-gradation of all major highways. The road network increased from 51,000 kms in 2008 to 58,000 kms in 2010 and work is on to extend it up to 70,000 kms.
    • Railways: The 1142 km Qinghai Tibet Railroadfrom Golmund to Lhasa is now being extended to Shigatse and Yadong in the Chumbi Valley and facing the strategic Silliguri corridor. Rail connectivity is also being planned to Link Kathmandu, Myanmar, Bhutan, Pakistan and Central Asian Republics.
    • Airfields: There are eight airfields in Tibet with five air bases and another 10 in the adjacent Xinjiang region. Plans areafoot to construct another 22 airfields by 2020.
    In military terms, this translates into PLA’s logistical capacity of 31,880 tonnes per day. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has openly talked about an assertive China, he was told by Indian military this April that China could amass some half a million troops within 21 days in a high threat scenario on the LAC without even mentioning the strategic disparity. The Chinese muscle flexing for political and not territorial gains at least this decade would come from land and not from sea as PLA Navy is still acquiring long legs and Indian Ocean/South China Sea is priority four after Yellow Sea, Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Straits.
    The hard fact is that Indian capabilities at present are not a patch on China and even the “David vs Goliath” theory would come undone in case Beijing were to just lean on New Delhi. While Raisina Hill led by PM Singh has taken conscious steps to upgrade its infrastructure along the LAC since 2004, work is painfully slow and bogged down in environmental clearances. Besides there are many in South Block who still believe that LAC infrastructure up-gradation would help only the Chinese in case of a military adventure.
    India’s Naval capacity building suffers from the same Hindu rate of growth leading to cost escalation in frigate and destroyer construction up to 260% and massive delays. At this rate, even the access denial strategy in the Indian Ocean would not work against the PLA Navy. The situation on ground is alarming enough to convince our strategic thinkers and planners to talk less and focus on the job at hand.
    The seven vital points on the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh, identified by then PM’s Special Envoy Shyam Saran as part of Border Infrastructure Report, to be linked through four inter-basin roads is virtually still on the drawing board as there are no helicopters available to lift the machines and materials since state cief minister Dorjee Khandu died in a crash last April.
    The proposed highway linking up Daulat Beg Oldi to Demchok via Chusul along the LAC in eastern Ladakh sector is work in progress. The same could be said for revival of old airfields facing Aksai Chinand the road up-gradation situation no different in middle sector in Barahotiplains in north Uttarakhand. Yet, the proposal for beefing up defences on the northern borders till such time infra-capacity builds up is at present at themercy of a finance ministry mandarin, who believes that this is unnecessary expenditure in the name of national security.
    With China-Pakistan theatres getting inter-linkedup more closely by the day, red flag has already gone up on Raisina Hill and Borders Road Organisation (BRO) has been asked to drop all work and only concentrate on strategic roads. This decision was taken by cabinet months ago but is still in the process of being implemented.
    The urgency is such that the UPA should look at the possibility of setting up of an empowered group with financial powers on the lines of E Sreedharan’s Delhi Metro model to take on border infrastructure on a war footing. The infrastructure augmentation should be matched by naval capacity building and leveraging of close diplomatic ties with countries like the US, Japan, South Korea and South-East Asia in order to prepare for rising China. For the latter, defence minister AK Antony and his like minded friends in UPA would have to shed their cold warrior mindset as the Beijing’s string of pearls strategy could practically choke New Delhi both from land and sea.
    The September 18 earthquake has made New Delhi sit-up it as Sikkim including Nathu Lawas cut-off and the alternate highway still not complete due to land acquisition problems. Bravado can turn into fear in such situations.

    http://blogs.hindustantimes.com/inside-story/2011/10/19/india-must-wake-up-to-chinese-threat/
     
  4. Katsuhiro

    Katsuhiro FULL MEMBER

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    Chinese are never peaceful. Ever since they got caught with the ideology in their Cultural Revolution, there has been much change in the minds of the Chinese. They are not the peaceful Chinese that their ancestors were in medieval China. We had our own mistakes in the past during Imperial Era but this China is the same monster that it thought it is fighting. Asia's countries need to exercise much caution and much defense attention if they have to defend their countries.
     
  5. sanman

    sanman Lieutenant SENIOR MEMBER

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    China was violent and corrupt much before the Cultural Revolution. Communists always rule through the gun, as Mao's dictum reminds us.

    While the Chinese masses are no longer communist, the so-called "communist" party still retains power. It's now an an authoritarian setup there. How long that party can continue to intimidate the masses into obedience is questionable. The ruling party will have to maintain aggressive economic expansion and also rally the people with nationalism, in order to keep the masses from rising up against them. Even now, many wealthy Chinese are quietly shifting to other countries, or making plans to flee. They already know that the ride is coming to an end. What follows will be confrontation and chaos, which will consume many people.

    There are many Chinese who aren't wise enough to escape ahead of time, and will be stuck fleeing at the last minute, desperately looking for any destination they can get into. Which destinations will they choose? Which places will they flood into? Places like Australia nearby? If China is consumed by chaos, will there be hordes of boat people fleeing to Australia and Japan? I think it's possible.
     
  6. TereBinLaden

    TereBinLaden Captain STAR MEMBER

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    India need to install Agni II IRBM at Tezpur and Chabua AFB in multiple numbers aimed at Lanzhou and Chengdu military HQ, this can equalize any threat prospect.
     
  7. lamaluyang

    lamaluyang REGISTERED

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    Really funny! A country with 11 biggest aircraft carriers says another country is a threat just because the latter also wants one.
     
  8. MiG-23MLD

    MiG-23MLD Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    No i think many people regard China as a threat not because of its aircraft carriers, but because China is exporting its problems and in one way follows a life style not shared in many countries.

    But no one at least me feels China has no right to progress, i am for China to progress, but a peaceful rise, not a militaristic, undemocratic and imperialistic China, definitively, i am not in favour of that China, but i support the rise of China as a democratic, highly industrilized country and more wealthier country.
     
  9. lamaluyang

    lamaluyang REGISTERED

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    The rise of china is far from only in a militaristic way. GDP of china in official exchange rate
    will be 7.5 trillion in 2011, which is around half of that of us. However, the military power of
    china is much much weaker than us, so it is natural that china is building a lot of destroyers,
    fighters, and frigates. In the past 3 decades, most of the resources of china are not focusing
    on military, but economy. The present military power does not match our economic power
    definitely. This is the fact, and it has nothing to do with how we will use this power.

    As the further progress of economy, people should be used to a strong existence of china,
    especially the militaristic existence. We will be the largest economy very very soon (in 5 years).
    We need J-20s, we need CV's, and everyone should know.

     
  10. MiG-23MLD

    MiG-23MLD Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    China is not really rising, it is simply developing, in reality China is overhyped, i am not saying China is not advancing, definitively is advancing a lot and believe me i wish the best to the people of China, however China is also creating a lot of trouble, first it is creating lower salaries in many countries, second has very irrational demands about foreign territories in Vietnam, the philipines and Japan and third has a foolish idea buying weapons it will challenge the West in the Pacific.

    In 2011 China should develop clean technologies, stop threating Taiwan and create an economic power that is soft power and can achieve better results than trying to build aircraft carries.

    Will China rule over the world? No it won`t, it is better and more practucal develop a peaceful China that rules with economics and not with weapons.

    Do you want to know why i have more sympathy for India? easy, i see India with the same potential of China, but a more peaceful stand, more defensive and more peaceful, i see India developing clean technologies and not claiming territories, Besides India is a democracy.

    But do not misunderstand me i know China has good sides too, but i do not see a realistic Chinese attitude, the best for China is be peaceful.
     
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  11. lamaluyang

    lamaluyang REGISTERED

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    Rising is only a word, you could call it whatever you like. The truth is, the no.1 economy will be
    a superpower definitely. England, US, the next one is China. Today US is still the no.1, so it can
    develop technologies and weapons that even EU can not. China is spending a lot of money on
    the developing of technology and science, of course including weapons. J-20 is one example.
    Even EU has no this kind of plan.

    China is the only member that has not its own CV in SCUN. I definitely support the attempt of
    China. You say we should not, it is only your opinion, and that does not make any sense. Why
    you think US should be always the dominating one?

    As to the clean energy things, I believe you did not know what china is doing.

    As to the low salaries, it is such a brainwashed opinion. no need to comment.

    Basing on my knowledge, you comments about india is not the case. The truth is, in 1990
    india has a similar economy scale with china, now ours is four times theirs.

     
  12. lamaluyang

    lamaluyang REGISTERED

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    As the response to your comparison between india and china, I quote the words of India's leading economist, Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen. I read this article (just in another session of this forum) just today. So many brainwashed people just ignore or deny the truth, the truth that china is trying really hard.

    "Despite the interest in this subject (of comparing India's eight-percent growth to China's 10 percent)... this is surely a silly focus," Sen wrote in The Hindu.

    Growth as estimated by gross national product (GNP) was an arbitrary measurement, he said, and "the lives that people are able to lead -- what ultimately interests people most -- are only indirectly and partially influenced by the rates of overall economic growth".

    In an unflattering portrait of his country, Sen drew on data from World Development Reports of the World Bank and Human Development Reports of the United Nations to show China far ahead on most criteria.

    Life expectancy at birth in China was 73.5 years compared with 64.4 years in India; Infant mortality rate is 50 per thousand in India and just 17 in China, and the under-five mortality rate is 66 for Indians and 19 for the Chinese.

    China's adult literacy rate is 94 percent, compared with India's 65 percent, and mean years of schooling in India is 4.4 years, compared with 7.5 years in China, he said.

    "Almost half of our children are undernourished compared with a very tiny proportion in China," Sen added.

    "Comparing ourselves with China in these really important matters would be a very good perspective, and they can both inspire us and give us illumination about what to do -- and what not to do," he said.

     
  13. MiG-23MLD

    MiG-23MLD Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    India has all the factors to develop, it has high growth and domestic technology, will India remain like you are portraiting?

    no, it won`t, India is catching up with China, but i have no problem with China building jet airliners, computers or cars, that is good, my main problem is the irrealistic expectation China will、overcome the West and it will do it by having aircraft carriers and weapons.

    The West will continue developing technology and commerce and so India, South America or Russia, these nations have no interest or desire to give up their industries and commerce and definitively they are developing weapons so, at the end of the day for China in order to feed and educate its population you need cooperation not confrontation.


    if not see this

    http://www.indiandefence.com/forums/f25/emerging-markets-thread-their-technology-their-economy-india-5699/index20.html#post132079

    India basicly has almost 97% of the technologies China has and even nations like Brazil can make cars, excavators, aircraft or computers and won`t give up their technology or commerce
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2011
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  14. Firemaster

    Firemaster Captain STAR MEMBER

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    BTW Welcome to IDF lamaluyang
     
  15. MiG-23MLD

    MiG-23MLD Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    stop dreaming, China is still no superpower, do you know the financial institutons that are in the EU and the US are the same?

    Do you know England italy and other European nations work in F-35?

    average western salary is 35000 dolars average chinese salary is 3500, a 10th of western salaries, do you know NATO is the true western world military block.

    China is an overhyped nation
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2011
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