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China’s spike in births will not alleviate its ageing problem

Discussion in 'China & Asia Pacific' started by VCheng, Jan 25, 2017.

  1. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    China cannot escape its demographic challenges easily:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/01/daily-chart-19

    China’s spike in births will not alleviate its ageing problem
    Jan 24th 2017


    [​IMG]

    CHINA is the most populous country in the world, but is also one of the fastest-ageing. So it was with some fanfare that the National Health and Family Planning Commission announced on January 22nd that the country’s birth rate shot up in 2016. Almost 18m babies were born last year, the highest total since 2000, and the biggest annual increase in three decades. The recent spike comes on the heels of the country scrapping its long-standing one-child policy, though the number of births was already creeping up following a relaxation of the rules in 2013. The change in policy seems to have had an impact: some 45% of newborns last year were second children, compared with 30% before 2013. The commission estimates there will be 17m-20m births a year until 2020. Government officials now eagerly project that the rising birth rate could add 30m more people to the workforce by 2050.

    At first glance, this sum sounds enormous: it is roughly the entire population of Peru. Nonetheless, in the Chinese context, it is still probably insufficient to cure the country’s demographic woes. When the one-child policy was introduced in 1979, a third of the population was under 15. The number of people of working age soon swelled as they entered the labour market. But it peaked in 2013, and today the country is greying. One in ten Chinese is now 65 or older. By 2050, pensioners will number around 370m and account for more than one-quarter of the population. This places a bigger financial burden on the dwindling share of workers who must support them.

    Although the latest figures are flattered by comparison with the recent past, they look far less impressive in a broader historical context. China’s birth rate was roughly the same in the 1990s, and significantly higher around its 1980s peak. Unfortunately, it will take more than ending legal restrictions for the country to accelerate the recent improvement. A survey conducted in 2015 found that three-quarters of Chinese said they did not want a second child mainly because of the expense and lack of support. The commission suggests that the government introduce child-friendly measures like tax breaks and prolonged maternity leave for families with two children. Whether such initiatives persuade Chinese who have been brought up to have one child to consider another is yet to be seen.
     
  2. Guynextdoor

    Guynextdoor Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yeah, and I understood the magnitude only recently. I use to think 1 child supporting 2 parents was the problems, I got to understand that it's actually more like 1 child supporting 4 - parents and grand parents, plus their own children. This will be a very complex problem to solve.
     
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  3. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    The implications for the continuity of their economic miracle and social stability are enormous.
     
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  4. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    http://www.bbc.com/news/14213136

    Did the West stoke the scourge of sex selection in Asia?

    A strong socio-cultural preference for boys in conservative Asian societies is blamed for most of the sex selection. In overwhelmingly patriarchal India, dowry makes daughters expensive. China's one-child policy is thought to be a trigger as women abort girls to have a single boy.

    But the story of sex selection in Asia is not as simple as it looks from the outside, writes award-winning science journalist Mara Hvistendahl in her startling new book Unnatural Selection.

    Hvistendahl points a finger at the West for encouraging the epidemic of sex selection which has gripped Asia since the early 1970s.

    Amniocentesis tests and ultrasound scans have led to more than 160 million girls being aborted in Asia alone since then, according to one widely quoted 2005 estimate.

    It had to do, Hvistendahl writes, with the West's paranoid population control movement during the Cold War - a growing fear that more hungry babies would grow up and turn to communism. The "monster of sex determination in Asia" lead to vastly skewed ratios in countries like India, China and South Korea.

    Western money, she writes, was used to set up an extensive network of family planning advisers and doctors that encouraged women to opt for amniocentesis.

    That's not all. Throughout the late 1960s and early 70s, writes Hvistendahl, influential US experts supported sex selection in academic papers and government-sponsored seminars - "a disturbed sort of technological sexism".

    In 1969, sex determination was included as one of the 12 new strategies for global birth control at a US workshop. Henry Kissinger, then secretary of state under Richard Nixon, signed a classified memo stating that "abortion is vital to the solution" of population growth in the world.


    So in India, Hvistendahl says, advisers from the World Bank and other organisations pressured the government to "adapt a paradigm" where population was the problem. The Rockefeller Foundation and the Ford Foundation poured money into "research into reproductive biology".

    And in the mid-1960s, she writes, leading American embryologist and biochemist, Sheldon Segal, showed doctors at India's top medical school AIIMS, how to test human cells for sex chromatins that indicate whether a person is female - a method, she says, that was the precursor to foetal sex determination.

    In India, the early sex selective abortions were performed openly at government hospitals. Doctors helped identify the sex and abort the foetus if it was a girl. Hvistendahl quotes from papers written by senior doctors belonging to India's premier medical school, the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), in which they back prenatal sex determination as a way of putting an end to "unnecessary fecundity". In other words, female foetuses were aborted in the name of population control.

    It was only in the late 1970s, when India's feminist groups and other campaigners began making a noise about sex selection, that the authorities took notice.

    By that time, writes Hvistendahl, the damage had been done. At AIIMS alone, doctors had aborted an estimated 100,000 female foetuses. Taxpayers' money and Western funding had been spent to fund sex selective abortions. Today, 112 boys are born for every 100 girls in India, against the natural sex ratio at birth of 105 boys for every 100 girls. This is what Dr Sabu George, a leading expert on sex selection, calls the "forgotten story" of India's missing girls.
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    The Population boom is a burden myth was sold by Western countries to Eastern nations like China,India and South Korea, through their Scientists and World bank when the truth in real was they were scared of the Population and those countries not being under the control of the West.

    In 1969, sex determination was included as one of the 12 new strategies for global birth control at a US workshop. Henry Kissinger, then secretary of state under Richard Nixon, signed a classified memo stating that "abortion is vital to the solution" of population growth in the world.

    This was the cause and Asian nations bought that lie sold by USA. China is a victim of such Lie,thankfully India still has good birth rates. The same Two Children Family Planning policy is peddled to Hindus,so that over time they become Minorities in India Demographically in future, that is what the Saints and Conservatives of India say Hindus should have more kids,that is when this Feminist brigade comes into action to attack them and shut them up. West controls the decline of Hindu population through Manipulation and propaganda .
     
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  5. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    very tough times for China are expected in next 15-20 years
     
  6. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    @VCheng Once birth rate fall below replacement level, it is impossible to bring them back above replacement level without an apocalyptic event. There are complex sociological and psychological reason behind it and I have discussed them in one of the thread. Overdoing population control is a civilization ending event.

    China is about to learn the hard way that people are not robots who could produce children with a flick of switch.


    When this phenomenon has run through its course, economic growth would be last thing on CCP's mind.
     
  7. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    China will certainly remain a large economic power, but it will definitely lose its luster as it tries to compete with the rest of the world. It will not be easy.
     
  8. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Yes, but economy is not the totality of civilization. Below replacement level birth rates would have far deeper effect on social and power structure. You could see effect of low fertility on Europe, and here full effects are not visible as NATO ensures that a third siege of Vienna would fail.
     
  9. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    You are correct in that the social adjustments needed within Chinese society given these demographic changes will not be easy to manage.
     

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