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Debate: - Make In India in Defence Sector - Is it Real or just a Hype?

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Apr 5, 2017.

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Make In India in Defence Sector - Is it Real or just a Hype?

  1. Its Real and India is serious

    4 vote(s)
    7.1%
  2. Its just a Hype

    13 vote(s)
    23.2%
  3. We are working on it and results will take time ..

    39 vote(s)
    69.6%
  1. The enlightened

    The enlightened Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Brazil is getting a great deal on the Gripen with Embraer jointly designing a twin seater and was cleared to develop it's own sea Gripen before the hammer fell on the SaĆ² Paulo. 100%ToT and offset and local manufacturing included. No 'buy 90 more then we'll think about it' bullsheet.

    Turks bought the same K9 thunder ToT and all - renamed it to some flunky Turkish name and now market it all over as their own product. Same with Litening pods.and pretty much most of their mil industry which has grown to a fairly impressive beast.

    Even Pakistan managed to acquire ALCM's from Saffers on the cheap along with their SOW - full ToT, full manufacture. Of course I don't need to remind everyone of the tale of the two flanker license assemblies. One is busy churning out variants after variants of 'phul indigenous 400% better than original albeit with full OEM support - J-series'. While the other is begging for spare parts.:rofl:

    Nobody would willingly give us their technology if they can avoid it. Certainly not with the bazaari pravriti present with the likes of our Defmin trying to save every cent from every nook and corner. Ultimately you get what you pay for.

    As long as India constraints itself with inanities such as 'Defence Procurement Policy' and 'Request for Proposal' rather trying to gain the best possible deals for itself with the most desperate types (of which plenty exist) this is how things are going to be.
     
    Ankit Kumar 001, SrNair and PARIKRAMA like this.
  2. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild Developers -IT and R&D

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    MII is always going to be a long term process. In fact, it is a "process" not a "goal".
    We are never going to have 100% of Military equipment being made in India. ours should be a target of about 50%. that would be a GREAT effort in itself. Given that arms deals process in India is at least half a decade, the process of taking the amount of MII content to 50% is an easy 30 years process - and that too only if we dont get people like Antony or Congress type govts.
    Atleast we have some vision spelt out - that we need MII for our long term economic growth and defense capability. and that I am happy with.
     
  3. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Our major breakthrough would be Artillery sectors .All type especially ,towed type .It would be the major
    deal to our defence industries and after its implementation ,we will have a majors like TATA,L&T, etc .

    US or USSR both of them spend trillions of dollars and sacrificed a lots of life to create a viable industry .
    Either you have money or technology to develop such facilities.Until last decade we didnt have both of these ,nor other nations gives us that easily .

    Chinese are compensating using billions of investment and industrial espionage .
    We have our own way to deal even though it is ineffective .
     
    PARIKRAMA likes this.
  4. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Good list ... here are some more additions

    Mirage, Jaguar and Mig29 upgrades are MII
    All of Agni, Akash, NAG, K5, K4 are MII
    Scorpeone Submarines are MII
    SSBNs are MII
    IAC is MII
    Cobham IFR and Radome will be MII
    Even Israel has offered to MII their drones

    The exception would be either the latest or strategic technologies, like the Rafales, FGFA, EMALS, ac engines, AESA radars,
     
    HariPrasad and PARIKRAMA like this.
  5. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Those talking about giving domestic projects time are conflating issues. "Make in India" is almost entirely a job creation instrument, it isn't really about creating a credible Indian MIC, that is more "made in India". The GoI isn't shy in freely admitting Make in India is about boosting India's measily manufacturing sector and carving out a greater space for it as a porportion of GDP, the requirements for the defence sector are no different.

    As such I will entirely discount any of the successes (of which there are many) of domestic R&D efforts in the past 3 years.

    Make in India, as far as defence goes, was a reworking of the DPP-2013 "buy and make India" clause, the DPP-2016 massively favoured proposals with localised support/assembly/production/content which is clearly a plus however the DPP-2016 is also where MII falls down as the key chapter (Strategic Partners) is STILL unreleased (despite being promised >1 year ago now) and we are largely in the dark about when we can expect it (given recent events I won't be holding my breath). As such, the "Make in India" ambition has largely translated into little more than rhetoric.

    On the one side we have:

    L&T/Samsung K-9 Vajra (am very happy to see this chapter closed, mechanised arty is finally on its way!)
    M777 (credit where credit is due, this GoI has done an exceptional job to secure AIT in India for the M777 AND a considerable discount, makes one wonder wtf the UPA were doing with respect to this deal)


    But then we also have:

    TATA-Airbus C295 (STILL no movement despite DAC clesring it over a year ago now, only now are they entering formal contract talks)
    RSH (what a collosal mess this GoI has created here; scrapped the deal entirely, selected the L2 bidder, cast aside the purpose of creating capacity with the private industry and allowed the Russians to partner with HAL for production in India and after all this STILL haven't signed the effing deal!)
    MTA (dead, dead, dead)
    MMRCA (what should have been the poster child for MII has been scaled down, zero meaningful MII exists as of now (I am not going to include the speculation about future orders) and all units ordered are entirely off the shelf machines)


    On top of this we have the S-70B farce; >100 10 ton NMRH are required by the IN, not even an RFI has been issued for this requirement and the talks for just 16 (+8) off the shelf units have dragged on so long it appears the deal is about to collapse.

    Future prospects for the MII:

    (12 ton) NMRH (Airbus Military has tied up with Mahindra and identified a location for a production unit in India for the H225M)
    NLUH (same as above for the Panther, TATA has also tied up with Bell for the 429)
    P-75(I) (an entirely redundant requirement IMHO but if the GoI is foolish enough to go for it there will be considerable revenue for the winning shipyard)
    LHD/LPD (still little progress with this really)
    FGFA (similar to a MKI situation most likely)
    MGS (814 units required at least, L&T are strong favourites with the CEASAR but no real movement on this front either)

    So, as far as defence goes, MII has been a total farce thus far and the GoI has only itself to blame. With Parrikar now having left with the job only partly complete and no new permenant candidate on the horizon I have to say the chances of a reversal in fortunes does not look strong.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
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  6. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Not sure things have slowed down, more progressed at a comparable rate which was glacial already under UPA/Anthony.
     
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  7. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    MII fundamentally needs improvement in credit liquidity, that too quality credit in large amounts.

    In the mean time the govt is improving what else it can structurally (GST, business ease, investment ease, skilling programs etc).

    I cannot fault them for their efforts, but the overall NPA scenario needs to improve drastically (back to low digit single %) and couple more years of controlled fiscal deficit + rationalised subsidies (to allow better money flow to private sector incl its banks).

    That is overall MII scenario.

    Defence related MII is just a microcosm of it, but gains higher optics (because its very high value, high visibility etc). But the systemic problems are the same, the govt has improved private participation/competition in defence manufacture but there needs to be an improvement in the credit liquidity scenario for the bulk of private companies to take up the slack.

    This is because even if they are a Tier A company (with access to good to excellent credit) acting as final brand name designer, core manufacturer, final integrator etc....they still rely on Tier B and Tier C companies (Defense MSMEs if you will) to be able to improve their component supply chains to have a large long term capability that can absorb large multi-component system projects but also transfer capacity/retain capacity (without much economic detriment) when the order is finished and time is used to develop the next cycle etc.

    With the current long-cycle credit being relatively weak in India, private defence MII is largely focused on just a few projects...because defence sector is especially vulnerable to this phenomenon (given the long gestation periods and long after-project periods that need to also be funded well) exacerbated by the MSME credit crunch in India in general (because of gross NPA and current NPA ramping pattern). As the credit access/supply broadens and deepens, there will be a correlated uptake in more diverse defence projects across the board.

    Without the improvement in this fundamental thing, the other issues don't really come into play that much for discussion...though they are useful to know and understand given I am confident the current credit crunch will not be even a mid term length phenomenon (seeing the uptake on foreign investment, improving sentiment and govt finally giving some much needed attention to banking + liquidity reform behind the scenes).
     
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  8. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Example.


    For 52 caliber 155 mm gun, 4 years development time was soughed. Government gave 18 months to complete gun and give it for testing and it was done.

    36 dhruvs produced last year which was more than targeted.

    HAWK production surpassed targeted production.

    Lakshya delivery completed before time.
     
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  9. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    In previous governments, things were not moving at all. FOr example barak 1 deal remained in Limbo on corruption charges just to fix George Fernandes. After 11 years , the case was subsequently closed. Indian warships remained without any active protection for a decade because of that.

    Except rafale, how Parrikar made Indian airforec to order additional 80 tejas is a great success story.
     
  10. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major Technical Analyst

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    The Barak 1 deal is still in limbo , no contracts have been signed. Only DAC clearances have been given.

    DAC clearance doesn't mean the deal is done. Every time a question is put up to this government , it tells the number of deals cleared by DAC, not what actually have been signed.

    Heck even if they tell how many have been cleared by CCS , that would be good.
     
  11. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major Technical Analyst

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    [QUOTE="HariPrasad, post: 547348, member: 19928] In previous governments, things were not moving at all. FOr example barak 1 deal remained in Limbo on corruption charges just to fix George Fernandes. After 11 years , the case was subsequently closed. Indian warships remained without any active protection for a decade because of that.

    Except rafale, how Parrikar made Indian airforec to order additional 80 tejas is a great success story.[/QUOTE]
    The Indian Airforce has yet not placed orders for 83 LCA, nor has the GOI.

    Only DAC clearances, not even CCS.

    HECK its 2017 and yet no FOC, no doubt IAF won't want a fighter which can do things but is actually at present , cannot even do all the things a Mig21/27 can.
     
  12. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Which things which Mig 21/27 can do but Tejas can not do?

    Congress had been in power for a full decade and why they could not convince air force for Tejas?
     
  13. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major Technical Analyst

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    The development of ATAGS is yet not over, neither has it been given for testing.

    36 Dhruvs weren't produced, but were delivered. Both are different things. Actually 3-4 of them were ready in previous FY and were to be delivered then, but delays forced it to next FY, thus raising the numbers " delivered ".

    Further the target is no big one, which ideally should have been 2x.

    Subscribe to Flight Global Aircraft Crashes service. You will get to know the dire situation of our Army Aviation and IAF with more than 3 dozen minor accidents with our Chetak and Cheetah fleet each year, which goes unreported, becoz a life wasn't lost there.

    The BAE HAWK is a successful program , maybe, what about the IJT ? The truth is we are not even in a position to keep up the present levels, forget about attaining the near ideal levels.

    Answer me, why isn't GOI doing anything for the falling production numbers of Su30MKI , especially when it should be the opposite ?
     
  14. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major Technical Analyst

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    Can it " presently " fire its canon ?
     
  15. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Cannon is all set to be integrated and a foc requirement. It is all ready integrated and ground testing is done. It will have it a short time.
     

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