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Debate- What should India do in lieu of USA Goodies?

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Sep 17, 2017.

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  1. Angel Eyes

    Angel Eyes 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Good insights...
     
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  2. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    This is another fantasy that China and US are big enemies and that US need India to counter China and after many years of living this fantasy myself the facts makes me think that this a time pass theory at best.

    Agree that China is rising so naturally every country which feel threatened will watch the move very carefully and plan for any eventual unpleasantness but outrightly declaring it as enemy and "war is eminent" have become kind of fashion now.

    Here are few points against that US-China are enemy and war is eminent thing:
    (There can be many more points but I can recall only these quickly)

    Though it looks very fancy and theatric to put the top two powers against and declare them enemy and wait for theater but so far in past many years beside few statement from military hacks(doing their job) there is absolutely no confrontation between China and US. Infact there economic interests converge so well that even the best allies of both countries are left far behind.

    There is no doubt as China grow (or India grow) they will pursue own interests and that may clash with US and will try to preempt them but that does not mean enemy thing.

    Need of India to contain China argument:

    I strongly believe and history has taught us pretty well even in case of India that you cant contain a country, when over a billion people want to be number one be it China or India they will reach the top spot you cant contain them, threaten them or defeat them and this is not philosophy but hard reality that history reflects very clearly.

    Tiny North Korea even after sanction of whole world cant be contained you think a country as big as China having far more influence and power can be contained? not economically.

    Then comes the military option to contain China, though I have given few points above that clearly show war is very very rare possibility but lets say if they go to war cuz of a particular event that neither country able to contain. Do they need India to whip Chinese ass? seriously US can chew Two China for a breakfast, the military might is way way bigger than China or any country for that matter. They had some pacifists as leaders(Presidents) that somehow let people believe that US is weak or cant win but you can ask many middle east countries that are reduced to rubbles just because a fanatic blew up two towers (even when US trained that fanatic).

    We dont have geographic advantage to attack China, we have advantage to defend from them and so do they. The biggest evidence is from history, India-China never fought in 4000 years(not talking about murderer Mao), under no king, neither did mighty Ashoka thought to expand to Tibet nor did Akbar the great, even when we were all powerful and mighty. Similarly we dont see any Chinese invasion (not talking about murderer Mao again), we were invaded from Central Asia, Iran, Ottomans, even Europeans on horse and foot came to fight us but never Chinese.

    Why? I think the main reason was geography, even 62 war taught us same. Though we have able missiles now to reach the distance but they are for showcase only(read deterrence), the day they start falling we both will be wiped out.


    Neither do US need India to contain China nor do we in all sanity will ever work for US objective of containing China for 'them'. Though I agree most of those countries that are recognized over world as hard powers are NATO allies but NATO was also an opening, a chance for them, this here is an opening for us, either we take up some role, graduate, rise and reach the top with help of others in shorter time or we can isolate ourselves, take our time like China and can still fail to be credible super power. We are invited in the arena, we will win, we will lose but for sure we will improve.
     
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  3. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Again, the US doesn't need India to counter China because we can't (that's why we don't have any global meaning), but to distract them!
    The more forces China sends to the Indo-Chinese borders, or the IOR, the less the US have to fight in East Asia and the Pacific.
    Same reason why China is supporting Pakistan btw, to distract our forces.


    For the rest, you are forgetting that political and economical interests are not aligned. The US always had economical relations to their enemies as well, be it Russia, Iran, or even back to Nazi Germany.
    Same reason why they turned their interest from Pakistan towards India in the first place, because our growing economic market is too important for them to miss out, on political grounds.

    There is also no difference with China as an economical, or financial partner (US debt) either, but in political terms, their regional or global interests, they are opponents and that's what we see for quite some time in the South Chinese Sea, or even now wrt N. Korea, where China and and Russia might use the N. Koreans.

    India has to see this as an opportunity as well and negotiate hard, to get as many benefits for us, from the US. But unarmed drones, minimum ToT, outdated fighters, more and more US agreements and even freedom for US forces on our territory, are not really a good deal.
    But then again, once you are in power, election promises and former criticism of sovereignty because of the 123 pact, can change fast.
     
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  4. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Well thats an over reach, tiny Turkey can counter China or Russia thats why they have global meaning? or Sweden? We will not have any global role if we dont pick any, if we keep avoiding we will be like China, nobody will know we are actually a power or just paper tiger, unless that is our goal.

    Well there are many sworn enemies of China beside India that will send troops for US happily to distract Chinese or rub them in a wrong way. I am not sure that India will under any circumstances send troops to Chinese border for US unless we have a formal legally binding treaty, not after China stayed neutral in our wars with Pakistan. Irrespective of BJP or Congress our establishment have pursued a balanced policy and it is not going to be extremely one sided anytime soon as it is not designed/executed by political parties.

    Reducing US-India relations to mere a military angle or worst as an alliance against a particular country is great disservice to the public of both countries, Indian diaspora and strong business and now even cultural links between us. We have a booming relation with US (even without military component).

    As we are evolving, the possibility of direct future conflicts between two big powers is reducing and it will continue to reduce as it will disrupt other ecosystems like Economy, trade, co-operation on common objectives to great extent. Fall of one will definitely have very long lasting (non military) devastating impact on other and going for it over a piece of land will be under extremely rare circumstance if at all.

    Agreed, infact I too mentioned it that as China grow up US will feel the heat and their political objectives will clash somewhere with China but that never means a military solution will be pursued and that too direct conflict now that we have range of options in todays world.

    I think we need to have a little longer vision while evaluating what we are getting. Remember we did Nuclear deal in 2008 and even after 10 years it has yet to do anything on ground but if we looked at it that it is just a deal without or limited benefits our relations with US may not be that strong today.

    The tech goodies whatever we get, I think are very much irrelevant while evaluating our future course of action. It is nothing more than a confidence building measure and no matter how people project it, it is still one of the most advanced stuff US offered to anyone but close allies. I think down the line after 5-10 years if we successfully complete few deals today we will have access which even Israel will envy. We need fighters otherwise at this rate we will barely have any airforce left to fight with after old frames retirement.

    And regarding politicians I think it is impossible to be a politician if you cant lie, you have to sell something which the one in power can not deliver and when you reach there you are faced with same problems, so you either find solution if they exists or your promise turn out to be a lie (which may/maynot be intentional).
     
  5. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Which as I said is based on our economical boom, not the fact that we are the biggest democracy, or any other relations. Indians are in the US for decades, doesn't mean that we had good relations historically 71, 99, BRICS, the Khobragade incedent...
    Improving relations is good, but not as a give away. There is no need for India to push for US alliance without real benefits and increased risks for our mainland.

    Possibly, but that's why the public / voter has to look at what promises actually were delivered compared to other politicians and not only take every promise for granted.
     
  6. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Not really, In 65 there were only 12,000 Indian immigrants in US and today around 4 Million Indian Americans, I dont know how much 12,000 Indian American can do for India when you are openly in Soviet camp and your enemy a very strong American ally. If you talk about History please dont ignore where did we stand, it keeps things in context otherwise things looks very imbalanced even when they were not.

    Khobragade was no saint but since we have to stand with our people we stood for her, US too overstepped, specially the Indian American Preet Bharara for own motives, attributing it as some kind of pre planned sinister design of US policy is again over reaching, we too took revenge that very week from US diplomat.

    If we keep things in context, the situations at that time I think everything can be explained and understood, our past experience with US as ally is limited so we really dont have many incidents we can quote to justify US being unreliable to us.
     

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