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Defence Wrap - Week of 06‐13 March, 2017

Discussion in 'Defence Wrap' started by PARIKRAMA, Mar 18, 2017.

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  1. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Week of 06‐13 March, 2017

    Following are the key developments from the Defense space

    Politicial Developments
    • Mr. Arun Jaitley takes over as the new Defense Ministry
    • India‐Myanmar Naval relations move one step forward
    Industry Developments
    • INSAS Rifles replacement to get DAC clearance
    • INS Viraat gets decommissioned
    • India successfully test fires 450km range Brahmos Missile
    • L&T and Pipavav shortlisted for the Submarine contract
    • GSL likely to win the Frigate deal

    Source - IndiaNivesh (http://www.indianivesh.in)
     
  2. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Mr. Arun Jaitley takes over as the new Defense Ministry
    • Mr. Manohar Parrikar stepped down as the Defense Minister on Mar‐13, to be sworn‐in as the Goa Chief Minister on Mar‐14.
    Opinion
    • Mr. Arun Jaitley has been appointed as the interim Defense Minister and soon a new Defense Minister would be appointed.
    • Till the new Defense Minister is appointed, expect delays in awarding activity and other Defense Ministry reforms initiated by Mr. Parrikar.
    • Priority is still rolling out of Strategic Partnership Model
     
  3. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    India‐Myanmar Naval relations move one step forward
    • A 3‐member naval delegation from Myanmar was on a 4‐day visit to India from Feb 26 to Mar 2.
    • This visit was mainly aimed to familiarize Myanmar officers about IN’s Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) operational/ training facilities (Flight and Tactical Simulator, Water Survival Training Facility, Hydro graphic survey unit and other training schools) and explore avenues for defense co‐operation.
    • Indian counterpart assured the Myanmar Navy delegation of assisting them on training and setting up of meteorological facilities. Also, Myanmar Navy officials have been asked to send a proposal so that the matter could be taken up with higher authorities in India.

    Opinion:
    • In addition to the large land border we share with Myanmar, both countries, also share a long maritime boundary across Bay of Bengal.
    • Both countries share similar strategic challenges, like rising Chinese influence in East Asia, illegal fishing and smuggling.
    • In such a scenario, any such initiative could increase prospects of Indo‐Myanmar maritime co‐operation.
    • Again these initiatives are in accordance with Indian PM’s ‘Act East Policy’, which aim to strengthen India’s position in ASEAN and East Asia.
    • This visit comes after both sides signed a formal Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for India‐Myanmar Coordinated Patrol (IMCOR) in Feb‐2017.
    • Myanmar is third country after Indonesia and Thailand to have signed such agreement.
    • During this joint exercise, Indian Ships as well as Myanmar vessels, UMS Aung Zeya and FAC 563 participated.
    • Notably, BEL & Keltron partnered to supply 3 Hull‐mounted HMS‐X sonars for UMS Aung Zeya, with BEL’s share of contract valued at $29.24mn.
    • Also, GSL had supplied a damage control simulator in May‐16.
    • On a whole, discussions on the much awaited ordering of Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV’s) from Myanmar could take off as both countries are getting close on Defense co‐operation and Myanmar is consciously looking at India to reduce its dependency on China.
    • Any actionable development between these 2 could benefit companies like, BEL, Keltron and GSL in the longrun.
     
  4. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    INSAS Rifles replacement to get DAC clearance

    • Indian Small Arms System (INSAS) Assault Rifles with cartridge size of 5.56x45mm after ~20 years of use would be up for replacement.
    • They would be replaced with deadlier assault rifles with cartridges of 7.62*51mm size, which is more effective in handling long‐range target.
    • In Sep‐2016, IA issued RFI to supply 185,000 of 7.62*51mm Assault Rifles with telescopic sights.
    • Tentative date for Issue of RFP stands at Apr‐2017 and thereafter this project in our view, could come‐up awarding in 2HFY2018.
    • As part of the tender, the winner is expected to deliver 65,000 Assault Rifles within 4‐28 months of signing the contract.
    • INSAS production was handed over to Ishapore Rifles Factory, West Bengal in early 1980’s.
    • Post the design changes in 1993, these Rifles were inducted in to IA in 1996.
    Opinion
    • This is the second time that the bid came for tendering.
    • Earlier none of 5 selected participants were able to meet IA’s technical requirement for this Rs 48.48bn bid, which was then cancelled
    • in Jul‐2015 (tenders invited in 2011).
    • Stringent technical requirements demanded,
      • (1) AssaultRifles should not weigh >3.6kg, and
      • (2) easily be convertible from 5.56x45mm to 7.62x39mm by switching the upper receiver and magazine.
    • Even though IA was not happy with DRDO’s indigenously developed Excalibur, selection delays forced them to induct Excalibur in late 2015. Considering that India has 0.48+ mn soldiers on foot (382 Infantry battalions and 63 Rashtriya Rifles), we sense there could be demand for 0.2‐ 0.3 mn new generation 7.62x51mm Assault Rifles.
    • This in our view, translates to over $1 bn opportunity to be awarded over the next few years.
    • In our view, initial batch of 65,000 Assault Rifles would be used to equip 120 infantry battalion deployed on western and eastern fronts.
    • Remaining 135,000+ Rifles would be manufactured in India under the ‘Make in India’ scheme.
    • 18 bidders (including, Heckler & Koch and Blaser Jagdwaffen GmbH‐ Germany, FN Herstal‐ Belgium, Israel Weapon Industries‐ Israel, Armalite and Barrett Firearms Manufacturing‐ USA, Beretta‐ Italy, Ceská Zbrojovka‐ Czech, Steyr Mannlicher‐ Austria, SIG Sauer‐ Switzerland, Kalashnikov concern (Izhevsk Machinebuilding plant) and KBP Instrument Design Bureau‐Russia and Nexter and PGM Précision‐ France) participated in tendering.
    • This tender is to be awarded under ‘Make in India’ scheme, where foreign vendors would be required to be involved in ‘Transfer of Technology’ (ToT).
    • Post the initial batch of supplies we expect increase in traction in supplies of these lethal Assault Rifles.
    • Also issues like delays in procurement of ammunition supplies, Assault Rifle maintenance could be avoided in the long‐run.
     
  5. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    INS Viraat gets decommissioned

    • After creating world record for being longest serving warship, INS Viraat was decommissioned on Mar‐6.
    • INS Viraat sailed under its own power in Jul‐2016 with fighter compliment of Sea Harrier FRS51 fighters (phased out in May‐2016).
    • Apart from Sea Harrier, IN uses Sea King Mk‐ 42Bs/ Mk‐42Cs, Chetak (SA316 Alouette III), Dhruv ALH, Kamov Ka‐31 as Airborne compliment.
    • Construction of HMS Hermes began in 1944, during the World War II and was commissioned by British Navy in 1959.
    • It was in their service till 1984, when they decided to decommission it IN bought it and re‐commissioned it in 1987 as INS Viraat.

    Opinion
    • No clarity is there about the future of INS Viraat, post it’s de‐commissioning (her predecessor INS Vikrant was broken‐up for scrap in 2014).
    • With de‐commissioning of INS Vikrant in 1997 and now INS Viraat in 2017, India currently is left with 1 active Aircraft Carrier, i.e. INS Vikramaditya which has been in service since 2013.
    • Currently MiG‐29Ks are embarked on INS Vikramaditya (formerly Admiral Gorshkov‐class Submarines).Their issues are well known
    • INS Vikrant built by Cochin Shipyard Ltd. (CSL) is under later stages of construction and is likely to commission in 2018.
     
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  6. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    India successfully test fires 450km range Brahmos Missile
    • India on Mar 11, successfully test fired 450km Brahmos Supersonic Cruise Missile at Integrated Test Range (ITR) Chandipur, Odisha. With this test successful, the Indo‐Russian Brahmos Supersonic Cruise Missile emerges as the world’s first with such huge range.
    • After India got Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) membership it got access to this high‐end missile technology and surveillance systems and as a result it increased Brahmos missile range from 290km to 450km.
    • Brahmos Missile is capable of hitting targets beyond the radar horizon and can be launched from either inclined or vertical configuration based on ship type and land based weapon systems. Land‐attack version of BrahMos is fitted on Mobile Autonomous Launcher.
    • BrahMos is also capable of being launched from Submarine from a depth of 40‐50 m.
    • IA placed orders for BrahMos missile to be deployed at 3 regiments of Block III version. Only 2 of them are operational as of now.
    • On the IN front, only 6 Ships/Frigates are equipped with launchers for BrahMos missiles.
    • 1st version of Brahmos missile system is integrated with INS Rajput, INS Ranveer, INS Ranvijay, INS Teg, INS Tarkash and INS Trikand Frigates.
    • BrahMos post integration with IAF’s Su‐30 MKI Fighter Aircraft cleared the first round of drop test. 2/3 (one targeting a ship and other one land‐based target) drop tests at varying altitudes and weather conditions from Su‐30 MKI Aircraft is expected to be carried out to ascertain that
    • it is ready for test firing from the Fighter Aircraft. Thereafter it could be inducted in to the IAF by Apr‐May 2017.
    • The submarine launch version of Missile systems is also in progress.
    • Already works on hypersonic version of Brahmos Missile with 800km range and flying speed of 5,000km/hour has started and is expected to be ready for tests by 2019‐end. This project is currently developed by Mashinostroyeniya Rocket Design (Russian NPO Bureau), Moscow Aviation Institute and India’s DRDO.
    Opinion
    • Supplies to 2 regiments of IA are already done.
    • Once 3rd regiment gets its supplies, we expect more announcements for 4th, 5th, 6th regiments of IA (expect ordering by FY2018‐end).
    • Notably, each regiment is armed with 4 launchers and 90 missiles costing approx. $ 300mn.
     
  7. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    L&T and Pipavav shortlisted for the Submarine contract
    • Post inspection of public and private shipyards a high level committee has shortlisted L&T’s Katupalli yard and Pipavav Defense & Engineering for the award of Rs 600bn contract to make 6 conventional Submarines (Project 75I).
    • This project would be awarded under ‘Buy and Make in India’ category implying technology tie‐up with foreign collaborators.
    • The High level committee (with representatives from IN and MoD) conducted survey of Garden Reach Ship‐Builders, Hindustan Shipyard (HSL), Goa Shipyard (GSL), L&T, Mazgaon Docks (MDL), ABG Shipyard and Pipavav Shipyard.
    • In addition to the domestic payers, the potential foreign players in race include, French DCNS, Russia’s Rubin Amur, German HDW, Spain’s Navantia and Swedish Kockums Archer‐class.
    • Navantia has tied‐up with L&T.
    • DCNS France has technology tie‐up with Pipavav Defence.
    • Sembcorp Marine (Singapore), part of Temasek has strategic and equity partnership with Pipavav Defence.
    • Project 75i has been designed to purchase next‐gen diesel submarines with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology by 2022.
    • Conventional diesel‐electric submarines surface every few days to get oxygen to recharge their batteries, AIP systems help submarines to stay submerged for longer periods.
    • Also new submarines will have advanced detection range, combat management systems (mix of torpedoes and missiles), better sensors for optimum performance.
    Opinion
    • If we consider leased Russian nuclear‐propelled submarine INS Chakra and indigenously built INS Arihant, then IN has 13 ageing diesel‐electric submarines and only half of them are operational at a given time, due to refits.
    • This coupled with increased Chinese dominance in the Bay of Bengal and delays in contribution from MDL towards `Scorpene’ Project 75 indicates that IN is in dire need of Submarines and it is beyond the capacity of public shipyards to deliver them on time.
    • In such as scenario, awarding of the project to private shipyards is a strong likelihood.
    • Considering the edge enjoyed by RDEL’s Pipavav port over L&T’s Katupalli yard, and equity partnership arrangement with Temasek, there exists possibility of RDEL winning this project.
    • However, given that the project is at early stages, expect actual awarding to be seen sometime during FY2018‐19.
     
  8. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    GSL likely to win the Frigate deal
    • In continuation to the agreement signed between Indian and Russian PM’s in Oct‐2016, MoD cleared the $4bn Krivak class Frigate deal. Commercial note for this project would be prepared once IN receives price quotes from Russian side and GSL.
    • Final award of this project (i.e. clearance from CCS) is likely to happen in next 6 months.
    • As part of deal, Russia's United Ship Building (USB) would make the 1st 2 Frigates and remaining 2 would be made by Indian partner selected by Russian firm.
    • 2 Russian delegates (recent one from Yantar Shipyard, Kaliningrad) visited Mazgaon Dockyard, Cochin Shipyard, L&T Shipyard, Pipavav’ s Shipyard, Goa Shipyard (GSL) in recent weeks and have selected GSL as their execution partner.
    • Classified as Project 11356, this government‐to‐government order would involve technology transfer arrangement and delivery schedule is expected over the next 6‐8 years.
    • Since other government owned Shipyards like, Mazagaon, GRSE are engaged in other IN projects GSL was nominated amongst government shipyards.
    • Recently, GSL underwent all required modification for construction and integration of weapon intensive platforms with stealth capabilities.
    • More negotiations on granular details of the deal would take place, given the complex nature of this project.
    • As per the deal, these Frigates would have sensors and weapons including BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.
    • In Russia these Frigates are known as Admiral Grigorovich‐class Frigates, with stealthy hull design, improved low radar signature, acoustic and infrared signatures.
    • This 3,620‐tonne Admiral Grigorovich‐class, which can be fitted with BrahMos missiles, is derivative of 6 Talwar‐class frigates that Russia built for IN between 2003‐2013.
    • Given the use of stealth technologies and special hull design, this Frigate features reduced radar cross section as well as electromagnetic, acoustic and infrared signatures.

    Opinion:
    • It would take at least 2 years for these Frigates, post signing contract to get inducted in to IN.
    • Apart from getting the final clearances, IN has already obtained 12 spare tool and accessory kits for these Frigates.
    • The last pending issue of Engine supplies also has been resolved. This issue came‐up following the 2014 Crimea conflict, where Ukraine refused to deliver engines to manufacture Frigates at Yantar shipyard. However, in recent months, Ukraine has assured Indian government that Zorya‐ Mashproyekt would complete the delivery of gas turbine engines for using them in Frigates.
    • With the technology transfer, GSL would enter the elite league of Indian Shipbuilders to enter Frigate manufacturing. GSL expects >50% of the weapon‐intensive platforms to be ‘Made in India’. This would also include, manufacture of Electronic Warfare components, Brahmos integration amongst other areas.
     
  9. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Upcoming Defense Bids:

    pic1.png
     
  10. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Details of Reliance Defence JVs/MOUs
    upload_2017-3-18_9-51-12.png


    Thread now Opened for discussions
     
  11. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Thanks Parikrama Saab, I really like this concept of a weekly defense wrap, and it'd be great if we could have one every week!

    Also I was wondering, are those 83 EW suites for the initial order of MK1A Tejas's?
     
  12. Grevion

    Grevion Professional Think Troll IDF NewBie

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    Yogi Adityanath going to Delhi. How about if he's appointed as the next DM.:devil:

    Modi+Yogi a deadly combo.:devilwork:
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
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  13. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Ahh yes, the stuff of nightmares...
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
  14. Levina

    Levina Guest

  15. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Indian media is quoting exorbitant costs, It does not make any sense to spend $4 billion on four small frigates. According to thehindu its $990 million for first two off the shelf frigates, Which is more reasonable number. Even with ToT total cost should be less than $2.5 billion for four.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...-Russia-stumbles-on-costs/article17110051.ece

    We should also keep in mind that midlife refit of first three of the talwar class is approved. The winning shipyard can get part of that pie too.

     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017

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