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well a part of this problem can be attributed to the lack of proper research and development in india,leave agriculture it is the problem in most of the fields,another major problem is the lack of proper infrastructure,even if we got the most modern agriculture equipments,there is still the problem of power,in many parts of india the load shedding in the rural areas go up to an astounding 20-22 hrs,and another problem is the lack of proper storage facilities

 

we want second green revelution

 

Hurray, India is having a sytematic growth, when can we have a double digit growth rate???

 

it will still take another 2-3 yrs for us to achieve the double digit

 

1. The problem is the politician sharad pawar is there to make money no matter how India suffers or how many farmer commits suicide.

2. I don't know how many people know that India has 2nd largest arable land area in the world after USA.

3. The green revolution was due to 2 factors:

- Availability of water.

- Extensive use of pesticides and fertilizers.

4. We are still using old agricultural practice.

5. The Gujarat is the best example how we can develop our agriculture.

Even farmers from Punjab visit there to learn something.

 

Emulate Gujarat’s agricultural success

Emulate Gujarat’s agricultural success

Many people know that Gujarat is one of the star performers when it comes to overall economic growth. But how many know that Gujarat is an outstanding performer in agriculture, growing at 9.6% per annum since 2000-01? Though there is high volatility in agriculture growth rates for almost all states, the performance of Gujarat’s agriculture is more than thrice the all-India figure, and certainly way above that of UP and West Bengal, two large agricultural states.

Surprisingly, even Bihar is doing much better (at more than 4% per annum) than all-India performance (see figure). This makes one curious to know what are the drivers of agricultural growth in Gujarat; and if Gujarat has managed to excel in agriculture, why not others?

IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) research points to three main sources of growth in Gujarat’s agriculture: (1) cotton output soared from 3.05 million bales (of 170 kg each) in 2002/03 to 11.2 million bales in 2007/08, primarily driven by Bt cotton since 2002; (2) the rapid growth of the high value segment, ie, livestock, fruits & vegetables.

While Gujarat’s dairy success is well known, which is growing at 6-7% per annum on sustainable basis, the recent phenomenon of high growth comes from fruits and vegetables (dominated by banana, mango, potato and onions) that has grown at almost 12.8% during 2000/01 to 2007/08; (3) the third main source of growth comes from wheat—after a low of 0.6 million tonnes in 2000/01, production jumped to 3.8 million tonnes in 2007/08- an average annual growth rate of 28%!

Technology development and diffusion is a key driver of agricultural growth, fuelling cotton production, raising both the production frontier as well as farmers’ incomes substantially. While the public sector has played a role in production and distribution of high yielding variety (HYV) seeds like wheat, the private seed sector has taken a lead in developing and promoting the use of Bt Cotton seeds. In Gujarat alone, 26 private seed companies have registered 113 varieties of BT Cotton. Not only has the yield more than doubled in just five to six years, at present more than 50% of the total cotton area in Gujarat has come under Bt cotton.

The second key driver is increased access to water. Gujarat is a drought-prone state, with an irrigation cover of just 36% of gross cropped area. Increased water supply from Sardar Sarovar project, higher investments in check-dams and watersheds (as of June 2007, a total of 2, 97,527 check dams, boribunds and Khet Talavadi (farm ponds) had been constructed by the state in cooperation with NGOs and the private sector), and of course, good rainfall for the past few years has helped propel growth.

Concerted efforts to recharge water table, regulate electricity for agricultural use (by separating feeder lines for irrigation and other uses under the Jyotigram scheme) as well as providing high subsidy to farmers with modern water saving technologies like drip irrigation is a key development. Investment in water management and supply for agriculture has led to increased irrigated area under wheat, cotton and fruits & vegetables that have boosted production. Continuing investment in roads since the nineties have paid off, as there are good quality roads even in most rural areas (98.74% of villages are connected by pucca roads).

The last driver is the rejuvenation of the agricultural research systems and introduction of innovative extension services that make research and know-how available to the farmers. The ‘Krushi Mahotsav’ program is the latest innovation in extension services.

Under this program, approximately 1 lakh government officials, from the chief minister to Taluka level staff from 15 Departments, along with about 1582 agricultural scientists, and several other stakeholders like civil society organisations, elected representatives, farmers and women spend a month during April/May in rural areas demonstrating the best of technologies to farmers. Such initiatives indicate a strong political will to ensure development reaches the rural sector. Krushi Mahotsav 2008 toured all 18,600 villages of the state, providing information and counselling on soil health, organic farming, technology and inputs, irrigation, etc., besides infusing a new spirit of change and mass mobilisation.

The turnaround witnessed by Gujarat agriculture perhaps sets a precedent in Indian landscape that agriculture can also be a major driver of change. Can this be a divadandi (lighthouse) for other states to follow? Given the diversity of states in India, each state will have to innovate in its own way and devise strategies to accelerate growth in the sector.

But a key lesson from Gujarat’s experience is the impact of public investments in infrastructure and institutions have on agricultural growth. The state has also created an enabling environment for both MNCs and domestic private seed companies to compete and flourish. But accelerated agricultural growth in Gujarat is more than a story of just state planning and private sector participation. Strong political commitment to promote rural development, a long term vision, and the capacity to implement this are perhaps the key ingredients of Gujarat’s success story.

(Ashok Gulati is director in Asia at IFPRI and Ganga Shreedhar is a research analyst)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-agricultural-success/articleshow/4493375.cms

 

Must Read: After 7 years of 8.3%

Must Read: After 7 years of 8.3%

Ten years ago, overtaking Asean seemed a daunting task. Now, can India think of overtaking Germany and Japan?

T N Ninan / New Delhi June 5, 2010, 1:07 IST

Time was when the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) would look with mild disdain at an India that could not seem to get its act together, while the many Tiger economies of the region recorded transformational economic growth and commendable social progress. From India’s perspective, Asean’s success on multiple fronts made it a sufficiently attractive prize to prompt the announcement of a “look East†policy in the early 1990s. Since then, India has knocked at Asean doors for membership of various clubs — the Asian regional forum, the “Asean + 3†dialogue, and Apec — with only partial success. And India has not been shy of holding up Asean as an economic model to copy — as in the promise of bringing tariff rates down to Asean levels.

Now, the picture is changing. In the next two years, India’s GDP will finally become bigger than that of all 10 Asean members combined. This will cap a decade when India’s economic growth has consistently been faster than yesterday’s Tigers.

The change of relative speeds is emphasised dramatically by the manner in which India’s GDP has grown in a recession-hit world, while Asean’s growth last year was barely 1.5 per cent. It is worth recalling that, as recently as in 1995, India’s GDP was barely half Asean’s; so it has been a dramatic turnaround in 15-17 years. Asean’s population is only half India’s, so its per capita income levels will still be twice India’s. But given the prospect of continued rapid growth in India, even that gap could close in another decade.

Seven years of growth that has averaged 8.3 per cent per annum has changed another dynamic. For although China has put India in the shade by clocking GDP that is now three-and-a-half times India’s, the Indian economy today is as big as China’s was a decade ago — in constant dollars.

If India accelerates further (as it promises to), the awesome thought suggests itself that, a decade from now, India could be close to today’s China in economic might. China itself will have grown further in the interim. These scenarios are more dramatic than the original Brics projection that Goldman Sachs made in 2001, and the question is: what kind of adjustments will the world have to make, to allow for the most momentous change in a century?

The point, of course, is that India cannot get there with business as usual. A great deal will have to change: basic and advanced education, public health, the quality of administration, urban management, the maintenance of law and order, the building of the physical infrastructure (as someone said the other day, 80 per cent of the infrastructure that India will have in 2010 is yet to be built), project execution capability and, of course, mainstream political thinking. The global questions are as important: energy sources and pricing, providing the material basis for growth (what if Indian steel consumption goes from 65 million tonnes to 250 million tonnes?), global markets that can meet these and other challenges…

But the biggest test will be of one’s imagination. Ten years ago, overtaking Asean seemed a daunting task.

Now, can India think of overtaking Germany and Japan? Does India’s vision for itself encompass a GDP that could be $4 trillion before we know it — after all, that is only a little more than the near-trebling that has occurred in the last decade (from $450 billion to $ 1.3 trillion)? And if one’s vision does encompass this, can the country drum up the action to actualise its vision of its own future?

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/t-n-ninan-after-7-years83/397099/

 

slow and steady is our basic thing. We first target 2 trillion. Decline in agricultural sector is not good,and increase in maoists insurgency may be affect the growth. Your views welcome

 

yes we r facing problem on the agricultural front,but we have effectively neutralized it with our increase in manufacturing capability,services have always remained our backbone

though the major problems that can affect our bright growth rate at present in the euro zone crisis,it is yet to seen how india cope up this time after it had a duel with the sub prime loan crisis in the 2008

well taking over japan ang germany....i think we have to wait for it for atleast 10 more

at current rate china is still behind japan though it will overtake japan later this yr

we r hopeful india will achive a growth rate of 9 % this yr and and a double digit by 2012 but their r factors which can adversely affect it

europe accounts for more than 23% of our exports its its stagnation will definitely affect our growth

it is yet to b seen how much inflation(currently 10%) drops in the second half of the yr

rupee is already under a lot of pressure and declined almost 4% against dollar last month itself

if the growth is sustained as we percive i think the $2 trillion will b crossed in a matter of 4 yrs

 

Correct. But I am cautious about inflation. Inflation is not going to come down. It is going to shoot up some more. Also if you break down the components of the inflation index, food prices and oil prices are going to driver inflation really fast. Food inflation is over 16% from over a year now.

The economy looks good from outside but if you actually get into the things going on, we're in trouble, the whole world is in trouble. We can get good growth rates, but its not going to affect the common man, in fact it is strangulating the common people.

 

^^ i think 2morrow the new revised rates of petrol,diesel and gas will come into effect,it will the first nail on the coffin this yr

 

India poised to grow by 9% in 2011: World Bank

India poised to grow by 9% in 2011: World Bank

WASHINGTON: India's growth is expected to rise to 9 percent in 2011 with South Asia poised to become the second-fastest growing region after East Asia and the Pacific, says the latest World Bank update.

The region as a whole is expected to grow by about 7 percent in 2010 and nearly 8 percent in 2011, says the South Asia Economic Update 2010, the World Bank's first yearly assessment of the economies of the region released in Colombo Monday.

Contrary to current beliefs, South Asia's particular strengths and forms of global integration - not the lack of it - was a key factor behind its resilience following the financial crisis of 2008, it says.

With emerging markets playing an increasing role in driving growth, integration should be a key component of a sustained and inclusive growth strategy going forward, the report says.

Noting that the drop in growth during the crisis was the smallest among all regions, the report says the region will benefit from new engines of growth and adapting to a "new normal" as emerging markets and Asia drive global growth.

Trade with East Asia and China could potentially triple to reach $450 billion per year.

"The Regional Economic Update expects growth in the region to reach close to pre-crisis peak levels and faster than its high rates of 6.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2007," said Dipak Dasgupta, lead economist and principal author of the report.

"Rising domestic confidence combined with government fiscal and monetary stimulus packages and, in some cases, external assistance is helping stimulate recovery.

"Improved optimism is helping drive the recovery in private spending in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. India's growth is expected to rise to 9 percent in 2011, Bangladesh to 6.4 percent, Bhutan to 7 percent, and Sri Lanka to above 6 percent."

There remain some significant risks in the global environment -- slowing worker remittances and exports in a still hesitant and uncertain global recovery, as recent events in Europe show, with volatile commodity prices, and continuing volatility in global capital flows, the report says.

"Over the past fifteen years the region has become much more open -- and it appears that the form of openness it has chosen has provided resilience in the face of recent shocks," said Andrew Steer, World Bank Acting Chief Economist for the South Asia Region.

While high-income markets will continue to be important for South Asia, even if at a slower pace than in the past, other emerging markets and regions are also fast-growing and increasingly important partners.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...11-in-2011-World-Bank/articleshow/6020409.cms

 

Will India be the world's fastest growing economy?

The India growth story is enviable. Despite plaguing problems, India has emerged stronger and resilient to the global crisis so far.

India is expected to be the world's fastest growing economy by 2018, according to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research arm of the Economist magazine.

India, the second largest growing economy will overtake China as the fastest growing major economy with an average of eight per cent in the next five years, the report stated earlier this year. China witnessed 11.9 per cent growth in the same quarter.

There is much to cheer for India's economy as it grew at its fastest pace in six months in the quarter through March 2010, propelled by government and consumer spending.

Indian economy has been one of the least affected by the global crisis. "In fact, India is one of the growth engines, along with China, in facilitating faster turnaround of the global economy. Risks, however, remain," the Economic Survey said in February this year.

The economy grew by 8.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2009-10, pushing up the overall growth to a better-than expected 7.4 per cent. After the global economic slowdown, the GDP had moderated to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 after recording a growth rate of 9 per cent in the three preceding years.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said an annual economic growth rate of 10 per cent is needed to address poverty, India's biggest problem.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is bullish on India's growth prospects. The government expects the economy to grow 8.5 per cent in the current fiscal year as it expects a better farm output.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to haunt the common man. Will the government succeed to bring down the inflation rates and push growth? While the growth rate signals a strong recovery, there is much more to be done for an inclusive growth.

The size of the economy rose to Rs 62,31,171 crore (Rs 62.3 trillion) in the last fiscal, up 11.8 per cent over Rs 55,74,449 crore (Rs 55.7 trillion) in FY09.

The economy of India is the eleventh largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP).

In February, the Economic Survey had projected the economy to grow by 7.2 per cent this fiscal with industrial and services sectors growing at 8.2 and 8.7 per cent, respectively.

It said full recovery is likely over the next two fiscals with up to 8.75 per cent growth in 2010-11 and nine per cent the subsequent year.

In 2009, India's gross domestic product (PPP) stood at $3.548 trillion, and was the fourth largest economy by volume.

India's service industry accounts for 62.6 per cent of the country's GDP while the industrial and agricultural sector contribute 20 per cent and 17.5 per cent respectively.

http://business.rediff.com/slide-show/2010/jun/07/slide-show-1-will-india-be-the-worlds-fastest-growing-economy.htm#contentTop

 

ups and down

growth in agriculture-0.2 % in 2009-10 -lowest in 5 yrs
week monsoon
inflation-10 %

growth in manufacturing sector-16.3 % last quater
mining-10.6 %-2010
services-9.7 %

per capita income-10.5 % growth to Rs 44,345 in 2009-10 against Rs 40,141 previous yr

fiscal deficit-rise by 34 % to Rs 35000

FDI-inflow of $75 billion by 2014

indian exports-36% growth in april
imports-43.3 % increase

forex-$273.364 billion by may end

 

Title says 11% and thread says 9%. Correcting the title to 9%.