Dismiss Notice
Welcome to IDF- Indian Defence Forum , register for free to join this friendly community of defence enthusiastic from around the world. Make your opinion heard and appreciated.

Economy News

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by Indian_Idol, Jun 2, 2010.

  1. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    Messages:
    536
    Likes Received:
    1,288
    Country Flag:
    India
    http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles...strong-growth-persists-despite-new-challenges

    For India, Strong Growth Persists Despite New Challenges
    February 22, 2017

    • India remains one of the fastest growing emerging market economies
    • Due to recent cash shortages, growth is projected to slow temporarily this fiscal year
    • Maintaining the reform momentum is key to stronger growth


    India’s overall outlook remains positive, although growth will slow temporarily as a result of disruptions to consumption and business activity from the recent withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes from circulation.

    But the nation's expansion will pick up again as economic reforms kick in, said the IMF in its latest assessment. Growth is expected at 6.6 percent in this fiscal year and at 7.2 percent in the following year.


    Speaking to IMF News, IMF mission chief for India Paul Cashin discusses these and other challenges, and also highlights the opportunities for this vibrant economy moving forward.


    IMF News: The IMF just completed its annual assessment of the Indian economy. How is the economy doing?

    The Indian economy is growing strongly and remains a bright spot in the global landscape. The halving of global oil prices that began in late 2014 boosted economic activity in India, further improved the external current account and fiscal positions, and helped lower inflation. In addition, continued fiscal consolidation, by reducing government deficits and debt accumulation, and an anti-inflationary monetary policy stance have helped cement macroeconomic stability.

    The government has made significant progress on important economic reforms, which will support strong and sustainable growth going forward. In particular, the upcoming implementation of the goods and services tax, which has been in the making for over a decade, will help raise India’s medium-term growth to above 8 percent, as it will enhance the efficiency of production and movement of goods and services across Indian states.

    Challenges remain, however, and there is little scope for complacency. A key concern for us is the health of the banking system, which is still dealing with a large amount of bad loans, and also heightened corporate vulnerabilities in several key sectors of the economy.

    And, over the past few months, the economy has been hit by cash shortages, and accordingly we reduced our growth forecasts to 6.6 percent for fiscal year 2016/17 and to 7.2 percent in 2017/18.


    IMF News: How is this recent “demonetization” initiative affecting the economy, and what are some of the long-term ramifications?

    The initiative affected notes with a total value of about 15 trillion rupees, which amounted to 86 percent of all cash in circulation. Because payment transactions in India are primarily cash-based and electronic payments infrastructure is limited, the shortage of cash has disrupted economic activity, with smaller businesses and rural regions being particularly badly affected.

    Fortunately, these effects are expected to gradually dissipate by March 2017 as cash shortages ease. It also appears that measures taken to alleviate payment disruptions, such as temporarily allowing use of old banknotes for purchases of fuel and agricultural inputs, have helped mitigate the negative impact. So we expect the slowdown to be limited and relatively short-lived and the financial system to come through unscathed. Of course, potential loan repayment risks should be monitored carefully, particularly given an already elevated level of non-performing loans.

    The demonetization initiative presents an opportunity to increase the size of the formal economy and broaden financial intermediation in the longer term. It can also support a widening of the tax base, help reduce the fiscal deficit, enhance bank liquidity, and give a fillip to the government’s efforts to promote greater financial inclusion.


    IMF News: How can India ensure that the fruits of its growth are shared by all?

    India has made appreciable progress on several fronts. It achieved its Millennium Development Goals of halving poverty, infant and child mortality, and maternal mortality rates. Students are now staying in school longer, as evidenced by an increase in secondary school completion rates. Moreover, significant progress has been made in enhancing financial inclusion, leveraging technology to bring more of the population into the financial system.

    However, progress on improving health, nutrition, and sanitation has been less encouraging, income inequality has risen, and employment growth has been sluggish. For instance, a very large share of Indian workers—more than 90 percent—remain employed in low-productivity informal sector jobs. Women’s participation in the labor force is also low at around 25 percent—the lowest among emerging markets. Further labor market reforms, at both the center and state levels, are needed to encourage better quality job creation and raise female labor force participation.

    While there has been important progress, we see scope to pursue better targeting and greater efficiency of subsidy and social spending programs through greater use of the trio of Aadhaar unique beneficiary identification, direct benefit transfers, and information technology. Finally, more needs to be done to raise agricultural productivity and enhance market efficiency. This would help increase supply of high-value foods, enhance returns to farmers, and dampen food inflation pressures.


    IMF News: As India’s economy becomes increasingly sophisticated, how does the government keep pace with its capacity to craft sound economic policy?

    Sound economic policymaking underpinned by strong institutions is critical for sustainable growth. A recent example of a positive change in India is the implementation of flexible inflation targeting and creation of the Monetary Policy Committee, which have strengthened the credibility of monetary policy and helped maintain price stability in an increasingly complex economy.

    In addition to providing policy advice, the Fund is committed to working with the Indian authorities to help build capacity for policymaking. The recently inaugurated South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center(SARTTAC) headquartered in New Delhi—which will serve Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka—is the first IMF-supported center to combine both technical assistance and training.

    The center will provide training to government and public sector employees, enhance their skills and improve the quality of their policy inputs, and will also provide technical assistance to governments and public institutions. SARTTAC is expected to become the focal point for planning, coordinating, and implementing the IMF’s capacity development activities in the region on a wide range of areas, including macroeconomic and fiscal management, monetary operations, financial sector regulation and supervision, and macroeconomic statistics.

    [​IMG]

    FULL PAPER CAN BE FOUND HERE:

    http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...f-Report-and-Statement-by-the-Executive-44670
     
  2. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2016
    Messages:
    627
    Likes Received:
    1,145
    Country Flag:
    India
    1.69 billion from current 1.29 billion isn't really bigbby 2050, it averages 0.7% similar to American 0.6%.
    India's fertility rates are already low & still falling. So, it will start declining immediately post 2050.

    Its just a general preception to call India having a population bomb like other lower middle income economies ignoring the fact that India's family planning has over delivered compared to most third world countries.

    Have a good read.
    The myth of India’s population explosion
    India too will decline and economically slowed in second half of century like happening to Japan & China today, given it's size and other's pace it will still be largest economy left on planet before 2100.
     
    PARIKRAMA, anant_s and Abingdonboy like this.
  3. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2010
    Messages:
    15,000
    Likes Received:
    2,256
    Country Flag:
    United States
    Just because it happened in China and Japan does not mean it will happen in India. China decline in birth rate was largely due to its one child one family law, and Japans due to rapidly rising income levels per capita, neither which is likely to happen in India.
     
  4. Pundrick

    Pundrick 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2016
    Messages:
    362
    Likes Received:
    730
    Country Flag:
    India
    See according to the "Economic Survey 2016-17", the average working age population(WAP) in India will not decline as per China, South Korea & Japan, but it will be at constant rate unlike the above 3 country. All the 3 mentioned countries had experienced a spike in working age population, now it is declining.

    India's actual WAP will be at its peak after 2020 and this number will continue till 2040.
     
    Indx TechStyle and Abingdonboy like this.
  5. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    Messages:
    536
    Likes Received:
    1,288
    Country Flag:
    India
    I suggest you look at India's Birth Rate and TFR over the last 10, 20 years.

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN?locations=IN

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN

    The more gradual demographic transition of India will have several benefits on the impulse loading of its elderly later on (which is going to be a huge problem for China given it has nowhere near the per capita wealth of Japan when it hit this phase).
     
  6. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2010
    Messages:
    15,000
    Likes Received:
    2,256
    Country Flag:
    United States
    On the economic front we are still fighting the last war. What people don't see is the next economic or industrial revolution.

    We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society.

    There are three reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one: velocity, scope, and systems impact. The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance.



    We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society



    what does a dramatic shift in global manufacturing thanks to robotization and 3D printing mean for India, where 47% of the population still works in the agriculture sector?

    It shouldn’t be too shocking that two Oxford researchers, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A Osborne, estimated that 47% of US jobs are at high risk from the changes underway in digitisation and automation

    upload_2017-2-24_11-12-38.png

    upload_2017-2-24_11-13-3.png
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 24, 2017
    PARIKRAMA and anant_s like this.
  7. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2016
    Messages:
    627
    Likes Received:
    1,145
    Country Flag:
    India
    India's fertility rates are already low, even lower than developed countries. India doesn't even need one child policy to control population like China.
    Or I say,
    INDIAN SOCIETY ITSELF HAS ADOPTED SOME ONE OR TWO CHILDREN LAW. WE DON'T NEED TO IMPOSE IT.
    India has one of the highest per capita income growth rates in world post 90s and it has only been climbing up in rank.
    What?
    Both are happening in India since last 25 years.
    That's why we are called "emerging".
     
    Nilgiri likes this.
  8. lca-fan

    lca-fan Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,484
    Likes Received:
    2,847
    Country Flag:
    India
    India retains fastest-growing major economy tag despite cash crackdownBusinessFeb 28, 2017, 07.15PM
    [​IMG]
    GDP figures for the third quarter show that demonetisation did not have negative impact on the economy.
    HIGHLIGHTS
    1. Gross domestic product registered 7 per cent growth in October-December quarter
    2. India's growth was higher than China's 6.8 per cent for the last three months of 2016
    NEW DELHI: India's economy defied expectations on Tuesday to retain the title of the world's fastest-growing major economy, despite the disruption caused by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation decision.

    Gross domestic product (GDP) registered 7 per cent growth in October-December quarter, down from 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter.
    India's growth was higher than China's 6.8 per cent for the last three months of 2016.

    The federal statistics office retained its growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2017 at 7.1 per cent.

    The figures surprised economists, who had expected the economy to take a bigger hit from government's decision last November to demonetise old 500 rupee and 1,000 rupee banknotes, taking out 86 per cent of the currency in circulation virtually overnight.
    "Perhaps this data is not capturing the impact of demonetization," said Aneesh Srivastava, chief investment officer, IDBI Federal Life Insurance Co.

    "I am totally surprised and stunned to see this number ... I believe that, with a lag, we will see an impact on GDP numbers."

    The data also backs the central bank's assessment, which all along maintained the economic disruption caused by Modi's shock monetary therapy as a transitory phenomenon.
    http://m.timesofindia.com/business/...spite-cash-crackdown/articleshow/57394858.cms
     
    PARIKRAMA, Gessler and Nilgiri like this.
  9. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Captain Technical Analyst

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    1,789
    Likes Received:
    9,653
    Country Flag:
    United Kingdom


    Obviously very early days for an entirely unproven technology that it not anywhere near being ready BUT if it is to be the next revolution in public transport (or at least part of it) then India needs to be involved from day one and in at the "ground floor", not late to the party as it is with HSR. Hyperloop could transform the face of India perhaps moreso than any other single peice of technology.


    @Nilgiri @PARIKRAMA @Agent_47 @Ankit Kumar 001 @MilSpec @nair @Darth Marr @Levina @Gessler @GuardianRED @dadeechi @vstol jockey @randomradio @Sathya @lca-fan @Grevion @Roybot @Hellfire @Robinhood Pandey


    +Interesting/pleased to see Mr Kant and Prabhu at the presenation, I am all but sure that no minister from UPA would have been present. Can't fault the good intentions of Modi's cabinet (on the whole).
     
    Levina, GuardianRED, Gessler and 9 others like this.
  10. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    5,459
    Country Flag:
    India
    About couple of months back, it was said that this company concept , one of another portfolio investment of Elton Musk, was looking to raise capital in order to demonstrate it's capability to many nations and governments who might be interested for such a project..

    In Delhi they were there with some senior industry big wigs to talk about the program and also about them being participants in the implementation...

    The tube concept itself is very radical. As a country it will benefit us a lot but what needs to be seen is the insane amount of input cost..It's just too high atm..

    Probably bcz associated infrastructure itself is not up to mark for a country like ours.. we should rather concentrate on the existing upgrade programs... But yes if say a Tata, Mahindra, Ambanis, Parekh, Patel, Reddy, Adani etc etc can come fwd and find some project for say connecting a busy freight corridor, then nothing like it!!!
     
    Abingdonboy, Levina, Sathya and 2 others like this.
  11. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2016
    Messages:
    546
    Likes Received:
    536
    Country Flag:
    India
    what will be cost difference between HSR and this tube concept..
    like life cycle cost difference .. if it is not too much and safety is exceptional , we better skip HSR and straight away go to the new concept
     
    PARIKRAMA likes this.
  12. Gessler

    Gessler Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2012
    Messages:
    9,089
    Likes Received:
    7,234
    Country Flag:
    India
    Hyperloop is, as you rightly said, a very unproven technology with serious issues to address (some of which can be found in these vids) -



    It's good they are considering some cooperation but I hope we don't commit any money for this tech just yet.

    Overhaul of existing railway infrastructure and various HSR projects should be priority.
     
  13. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Captain Technical Analyst

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    1,789
    Likes Received:
    9,653
    Country Flag:
    United Kingdom
    The sub text of the Railway minister's comments was just this, he/they will be watching the Hyperloop tech and will facilitate them where possible but India won't be commiting to it anytime soon, there are established procedures that won't be bypassed just for a fancy presentation. Basically, once the tech is proven and model validated, the IR will look at it seriously but he/they are not in a position to commit to anything at this stage, the IR aren't venture capitalists.
     
  14. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Captain Technical Analyst

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    1,789
    Likes Received:
    9,653
    Country Flag:
    United Kingdom
  15. lca-fan

    lca-fan Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,484
    Likes Received:
    2,847
    Country Flag:
    India
    India to outpace US to emerge as second largest economy by 2040: PwC

    India will outpace the United States to emerge as the second largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms by 2040, global management consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast in a report.

    India’s GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 7.1% in 2016-17 from 7.9% in 2015-16 after the government decision to scrap Rs 15.44 lakh crore worth of high denomination notes or 86% of currencies in circulation. However, analysts expect the economy to bounce back from 2017-18 on rising consumer demand.

    By 2040, India’s gross domestic product in PPP terms will grow to $30 trillion from $8.7 trillion in 2016, while US will grow from $18.6 trillion to $28.3 trillion, said the PwC report titled “The World in 2050”.

    China will continue to lead the chart with its GDP rising from $21.3 trillion to $47.4 trillion by 2040.

    By 2050, China’s GDP in PPP terms will touch $58.5 trillion followed by India ($44.1 trillion) and the US ($34.1 trillion).

    However, India’s GDP measured in terms of dollar will grow to $28 trillion to emerge as third biggest by 2050, after China ($49.9 trillion) and the US ($34.1 trillion). In 2016, India’s GDP size was just $2.3 trillion, a fraction of China‘s $11.4 trillion and $18.6 trillion of the US.

    It Modi is there till 2024 at least and his policies are carried forward, then I daresay India's GDP could touch $35 -36 Trillion in dollar terms by 2050 outpacing the USA which could see an economic collapse by then, seeing how things are moving out there.
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...40-pwc-says/story-nD4SEUZfqTKYZvgs6MoLeJ.html
     

Share This Page