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F16, Gripen - Make In India Single Engine Aircraft - News and possibilities

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Averageamerican, Sep 30, 2016.

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  1. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    They can complain as much as they want, but as we have seen in other tenders, it's the PMO that decides things.
    Do you really expect Modi to differ between F22 and F35? That's not important for him. He needs to focus on economy and employment and not on the best for the forces, which the Rafale deal showed as well. It was just a fix to keep IAF happy for the moment, but the numbers doesn't help IAF in any way and all the offsets that we are getting are not critical either, but help the MII marketing.

    I told you before that the opposite was the intention! The Rafale deal bought the government time to set up their defence procurement policies and most importantly the SPM!
    The SPM was the ultimate goal to get the most out of arms tenders, for the MII marketing. That's why P75I, NLUH or FICV purposley were delayed as well. You have to understand how important the SPM is for this government, which means no matter how bad the SE might be, it's too big to fail for them!
     
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  2. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    You seriously think the govt will sign a deal for F-16s in 2022/3? It just won't be feasible at that point.
     
  3. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    As I keep saying, you can't rule it out!

    1. There are only 2 options in the tender, specifically chosen by the government!
    2. LM as your said yourself, is a much bigger company than Saab and has more industrial advantages to offer for India.
    3. The offer to get F35 later, is now with tensions rising with China and the FGFA in problems or at least delayed, suddenly a faster alternative and stop gap till AMCA arrives.
    4. Getting US in military support against China, is in the interest of the government.
    5. And deepening ties on a political level, is in the interest of every government (did u noticed recent news about US views on Pakistan, or the PM now moving ahead with the proposal for a permanent UNC seat).

    The requirements we have discussed for years during the MMRCA, about fighter capabilities, or ToT of critical techs are not important anymore! The Make in India marketing and political advantages are the key, if we like it or not.
     
  4. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    This is all well and good but

    1) Is India willing to push past all of its reservations and sign the endless list of agreements the US would require to get such high-tech offensive equipment? There is zero indication it is, in the past 2 years nothing has changed in this regard.
    2) Is the US Congress willing to pass special authorisations for India on a one off special case? Not a peep on this front.
    3) Has the IAF ever shown any interest in the F-35?
    4) Does the current American administation look like it has a long term foreign policy that could encompass the above objective vis a vis India and China? It is too busy fighting fires at home.

    The thing is these matters simply don't change overnight, whenever India and the US try to get these big things done they take 4-5 times as long as they should, you say this GoI is insistent on landing PR material under "Make in India" and pushing SPM at all costs but there is actually no indication that this is the case vis a vis the US, France (and Russia to a degree) are seemingly more an area of focus for Make in India. India/Modi couldn't even get anything concrete when he visited the US (for the 5th time in 3 years?) aside from an off the shelf deal for some Guardians maybe in the future at some point.

    There just isn't anything to indicate we are seeing a signifcant shift in policy towards the US even under Modi and with the SPM in place which I guess is mostly due to the US's unwillingness.

    Modi's aims are to get most of his agenda pushed through by 2022/3, the SE jet deal couldn't possibly work under that timeline.

    Even at a geopolitical level the F-16 deal doesn't work.
     
  5. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    That depends on what they offer in return and that doesn't have to be critical techs of the fighter that would be produced in India. Access to the F35 in this tender, or access to catapults in the naval tender, would be major changes in the Indo US relation too.

    For what exactly? Currently our status is below of the Gulf countries, which are getting better weapons that we had on offer so far and look at the technical restrictions even Japan, S. Korea or Israel have. We never will get the same terms from the US as from Russia or Europe, we can only improve the status to a certain degree.

    LM has made presentations to the forces, but it never was officially on offer.

    Their national politics is a different issue and unrelated to the tender.

    That's your claim, but what are the reasons?
    There is no problem to select the SP within this year, there are only 2 OEM's, so no further shortlisting necessary. The capabilities of the fighters are largely known, therefore limited trials.
    Joint proposals doesn't take much time either and even the conclusion of the deal should be faster than in MMRCA, since most of the production might be diverted to the SP itself and is not dependent on finding suitable Indian partners. Why should it take longer than 2019/20 then?
     
  6. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Rafale, The first aircraft are to be delivered to India by September 2019 while the last ones will arrive by 2021
     
  7. surya kiran

    surya kiran 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    First IAF has to provide a requirement. Till that happens, process cannot even start. MoD cannot approve any equipment order without requirement being raised by the armed forces. And as per @PARIKRAMA till the MoD approves the Rafale in numbers they will not give a nod to the F-16 which will be a capex allocation.
     
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  8. GuardianRED

    GuardianRED Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Just Pointing! out ..... AN RFI is NOT A TENDER!!!!
     
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  9. LonewolfSandeep

    LonewolfSandeep Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    FGFA (SU57) in problems or delayed is a false premise - its very well tangibly progressing.
    http://indiandefence.com/threads/su...-generation-aircraft.851/page-310#post-582855
    http://indiandefence.com/threads/su...-generation-aircraft.851/page-312#post-583532.
    And post USA sanctions on Russia (since India accepts only UN sanctions) expect Russia to push deal faster.
    (For future India/Russia defence & business transaction, India may simply create a new State Bank to work with Russia, having Zero transactions with USA with that state bank, hence out of preview of Sanctions reappraisal or secondly start old Barter Trade Setup which earlier existed, where commodities are exchanged instead of Cash or combination of both methods)

    [Offtopic, Think USA played a bad hand, my take Russia which believes a multi polar world must for world peace as its core belief, Post cold war was looking for Russia/India/China partnership to balance USA {now a dream, with India/China standoff}, but lately with future in mind, eagerly looking forward at Trump to improve relations, and maybe long term create a Russia/India/US partnership to counter China. They may say Russia China friends now, but Russians are really very afraid, of what China be in next 2-3 decades time, China claims some part of Russia land too & had once fought with Soviet. Chinese model is if we are weak delay, till they have upper hand to force issue, ie their expansionist mentality
    http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/why-is-russia-aiming-missiles-at-china/
    (must read article - gives good inside to Russian thinking) (some even suggested Russia putting indirect pressure on China, to back off, war talk with India, who knows?)
    also Russia delayed taking any action on USA, Obama parting office time order at seizing Russia diplomatic property in USA & expelling Russian Diplomats, till it was logically clear, its out of Trump hands, as he cant even Veto bill, since sanctions had more than 2/3 majority, what this shows was Russia was hopeful to bridge gaps]
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
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  10. BON PLAN

    BON PLAN Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    TRUMP administration just say "NO" to F16 line in India.
    In french :
    http://psk.blog.24heures.ch/archive/2017/08/04/pas-de-production-de-f-16-en-inde-864085.html

    " ...The US arms administration and the Pentagon refused to transfer the critical technology and production of F-16 fighter aircraft as part of the "Make India" initiative. On the question of whether the United States has accepted the sophisticated technology transfer and production of the F-16 as part of the make in India initiative, Subhash Bhamre, the Indian Minister of State for Defense, "No" to a question in Parliament last Tuesday..."

    Just stay the Gripen NG option... but with major US components ! (engine, FBW, ...). Will be hard this way !
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
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  11. BON PLAN

    BON PLAN Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    A source in france, near Dassault, said some months ago that first Rafale delivery may occur at the first quarter of 2019...
     
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  12. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    There's a lot of confusion regarding the F-16.

    What the govt has pointed out is there is no agreement between LM and MoD. That's it.

    The formal process of tendering is yet to start. It will happen by the end of this year or early next year, most likely within this financial year. The govt has not said that the F-16 is not part of the process.
     
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  13. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    That's not correct mate, you need to see the difference between the normal buy and make Indian process and the SPM!

    [​IMG]

    The SPM starts with sending an RFI to OEMs and we know, that that happened last year. Some sources even state that it was an EOI, which means the process is even further. We also know that the government has specifically chose to limit the tender to single engine fighters, which basically is the the shortlisting and according to the new DPP 2016, even a single vendor situation, is not an issue anymore (although I expect both fighters to be passed). So the OEM side is already at forward state and don't forget that the IAF requirements are still the same, from the MMRCA tender, all that changed is the tender model.

    Where we don't know much yet, is how the process of selecting Indian companies goes. But if that goes as the government plans, they will shortlist one SP and only then, the RFP comes into play!
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
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  14. surya kiran

    surya kiran 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    It can be done through UCO Bank, like it was done in the case of Iran.
     
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  15. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    So Indian time was 8 X Normal time, and is now 20 X Normal time.
     

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