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Harvard study predicts dramatic fall in China's economic growth, impressive rise for India

Discussion in 'Internal Affairs' started by lca-fan, Jul 10, 2017.

  1. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Harvard study predicts dramatic fall in China's economic growth, impressive rise for India
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    HIGHLIGHTS
    • A Harvard University study has projected a dramatic fall in China's economic growth untill 2025
    • India would perform extremely well growing during the period, the study said



    BEIJING: A Harvard University study has projected a dramatic fall in China's economic growth to 4.41 per cent in the coming years until 2025. On the other hand, India would perform extremely well growing at 7.72 per cent during the period, Havard's Center for International Development said in a study.

    "The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighboring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade," it said.

    What is significant that even Indonesia, Vietnam, Uganda, Kenya and Mexico are expected to perform a lot better than the world's sector biggest economy, according to the report.

    "China's rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth," CID researchers said adding, "The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 percent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant".

    Elaborating further, Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), said, "The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years".

    The study said that "The growth projections are based on measures of each country's economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities".


    The researchers emphasized that there are many steps policymakers, investors, and business leaders can take to enter more complex production to realize faster growth
    http://m.timesofindia.com/world/chi...ssive-rise-for-india/articleshow/59517456.cms
     
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  2. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    It's not an impressive rise for India. That's the level of growth we have today, we need to do better.
     
  3. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    7.2% will never catch up to China.
     
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  4. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    As far as India is concerned, we need to grow at twice the rate China is growing. Or else we won't catch up in our lifetime.
     
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  5. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    We need to grow in double digits in order to provide decent living for a current population of 1.35 billion
     
  6. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Growing in double digits is the end result of policies.

    What we need is access to credit. Credit in India is given only to established enterprises and that needs to change. For example, you won't get money to set up a business, you need to set it up on your own and run it for a few years before you qualify for a loan. Even then, most of the credit goes to all the massive companies that can pay off bank officials and get their loans.
     
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  7. SR-91

    SR-91 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    we need to focus on our growth, without worrying about what and where others are.

    IMO, India has a healthy growth rate, we need to focus on how we can sustain that over the next couple of decades rather than focusing on double digit growth. We don't need to run faster, overheat or make unnecessary mistakes in the process n then crash.

    India was and will be the "golden sparrow" of the world.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2017
  8. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    All corporate level food processing units should be banned and small scale processing units with local produce at village levels should only be allowed with rural Marketing brands. Every village community center should provide for holistic growth of villages. I think Subhash Chandra of Zee TV has adopted 3 villages to transform them into Smart villages.
     
  9. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    I don't know much about this, but you won't be able to keep tabs on quality and volumes this way.

    But yeah, our growth focus should be on rural areas first.
     
  10. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I think in the name of quality promoted by MNC's we are fed highly toxic food loaded with chemicals and preservatives (that kills life)

    Simple example of refined oils, refined sugars, aspartame, all kinds of sodas, and preservatives are added to every food which are loaded with chemicals and the nutrition balance is intentionally destroyed in the name of science, which primarily destroys the good bacteria in the guts and this is the cause for 90% of all diseases. Cancer is highest on the list caused by such foods.

    A simple example is a potato chip packet, I guess it sells for Rs 10 in India. The raw material for it is a normal size single potato for which the farmer gets less than a rupee. This is 1000% margin. If the same product is made by the same people who grow it with a National grid for marketing such rural products and lot tracking is correctly established, I am sure the whole nation will sponsor them. In case of any defective material, lots can easily be recalled. But in the present scenario, such recalls are not needed because the packed foods are loaded with life killing chemicals. So, you can be sure that you wont find any bacteria in it.

    Talking about quality, I have seen my mother and my grandmother preparing high nutrition snacks which last for months together with no preservatives. The whole process of making quality product is in the mind. When the math will be presented to the villagers, they will make sure to establish quality at ISO scale so as to not kick on their own stomachs. Oils will be local - Kacchi Ghani, produce will be local. it will be truly ORGANIC and will fetch them much higher pricing. Using chemical fertilizer is not a danger, the danger is from Pesticides and Preservatives, which once used percolate down the food chain to Cows and then to the milk we drink.

    Finally, with Swaccha bharat on, once the environment is clean, the carriers of bacteria like the flies from garbage and mosquitoes will be eliminated.

    It has been proven the there are ONLY four factors to health and longevity - Nutrition, Hygiene, Physical Exercise and Employment (self employed or otherwise).
     
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  11. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Rather than growing in double digit, Our economic benefits should reached to the last man including education, Water , Housing, skill and medicine. If this is done, we shall be a much better country even with moderate growth 6% which is easily achievable.
     
  12. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    The best way to deal with china is to substitute everything china produces and sell it cheaply. That will kill china's export oriented economy completely. Chinese labor is no more cheaper now. In high technology sector, we can easily outclass china with robust domestic research and technology available globally. We need to focus on automobile and aviation and make very robust user friendly policies. We should with the help of Japan and US expand our footprint to all area of chinese influence including subcontinent countries and also in Africa. China shall slowly become marginalized and loose its importance. Modi is master of this diplomacy and I think he is doing it.
     
  13. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Yup, but that's welfare. For that we need money, which comes through taxes, which is generated through economic growth.
     
  14. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Many thing we can do is by restructuring our economic model. We give a huge subsidies to Industries and so as loans. See, what Baba Ramdev does. He is spending rs 500 crore on the improvement of cow breeds. On successful completion of his research, country shall flooded with milk and rural income shall grow manifold. Inplace of artificial cream in cosmetics and tooth pest, Alovera can be used and it will provide a huge employment and income to rural India. There are numbers of steps which we can take to transform Rural economy. A leadership and mass education is the need of Hour. We need few dedicated people to work in this area. And do not forget that once the villages will become self sufficient, we shall have to spend less on its development and they can become a revenue generating entities as well.
     

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