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IAF Begins Brutal Rejig Of Purchase Priorities. Expect Blood.

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Agent_47, May 8, 2017.

  1. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Get the feeling that India’s ‘Make in India’ fighter project(s) have gone cold over the last two months? Well, for one thing, you’re not alone. For another, you’re right — it definitely feels like they’re on the proverbial backburner. And there are good reasons. We begin the first of this week’s special two-part deep dive on the Indian Air Force’s Make In India fighter projects by bringing to you a breakdown distilled from a range of conversations over two weeks with several officers leading the acquisitions and plans processes at the IAF and Ministry of Defence.

    1. As we speak, a quiet, hard-nosed process is on at the Indian Air Force Headquarters. Budget constraints are nothing new to the IAF. But under its present chief, Air Chief Marshal Birender Singh Dhanoa, the acquisitions and plans wing is conducting a no-nonsense re-ordering of acquisition priorities that will, in the words of a senior officer, ‘see many projects quietly disappear into thin air’. This is almost certainly going to mean blood for high value acquisitions that can be reasonably put off or cancelled.
    2. There’s no doubt that fighter acquisitions remain a top priority for the IAF, and the current priority shake-up won’t likely kill any pipeline plans. However, the IAF will almost definitely prioritise funds to add more fighter numbers quickly to the force. This could manifest in a series of ways: (a) A reconfiguration of the Make In India foreign fighter projects to include a definite number of quickly deliverable flyaway units, (b) Fast-tracking the addition of Rafale orders beyond the 36 on contract.
    3. By all accounts, the departure of erstwhile Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has come as more than just a speedbreaker in proceedings that require a heavy political foot on the gas pedal at all times. There is no reason to believe that Parrikar’s successor Arun Jaitley won’t shepherd plans onward. But there’s no doubt in the minds of officers on the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), the MoD bureaucracy or at the very top of the IAF, that precious impetus has been abruptly lost with the exit of Parrikar, a rare intangible commodity that must now be rebuilt from scratch.
    4. Livefist has learnt that in the weeks and months ahead, a far more realistic acquisition ethic is to become apparent from the Indian Air Force’s requirements wing. The re-ordering of modernisation priorities mentioned above will produce a new list that expunges several declared ‘big ticket’ acquisition plans. Top sources indicate that a clinical pruning (or ‘rationalisation’) of the IAF’s surface-to-air missile requirement, for instance, could be chief among this series of moves.
    5. The Indo-Russian FGFA programme appears to be inching its way out of years of a troubling stall. A 5-member Indian committee tasked with identifying and defining what’s in it for India is all set to submit its report to the MoD in a week. In the meantime, reports suggest the two sides are set to conclude a ‘milestone’ design agreement on the FGFA/PMF. While the IAF’s interest in the FGFA remains, Livefist can confirm that the IAF has, at the behest of the erstwhile Parrikar-led MoD, wargamed an acquisitions scenario that envisages the total collapse of discussions with Moscow.
    6. The Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP), a tri-service capability roadmap and wishlist produced by the Indian MoD under minister A.K. Antony in 2012-2013 has been an exercise in waste. Top sources say it is no longer even a broad, tentative touchstone for modernisation at any level. Unprioritised and without any committed budgetary support, it remains a sumptuous compilation of presentations with literally no concrete actionable elements to guide force additions.
    7. Under Parrikar, the Indian military were able to arrive at the most specific definition of what they needed to be prepared for in all circumstances: ten days of intense operations on any front and across dimensions. All plans, ammunition levels and reserves need to revolve around this. The benchmark was revisited recently at the Air Force Commanders’ Conference. Apart from aircraft both fixed wing and rotary, acquisition priorities include ammunition and ordnance across mission profiles and equipment for the IAF’s small Special Forces units
    https://www.livefistdefence.com/201...ejig-of-purchase-priorities-expect-blood.html
     
  2. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    There is an important part under the article!

     
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  3. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    It is not on backburner,they are just waiting for SP model for private players
     
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  4. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog Staff Member MODERATOR

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    IN should be making a similar list:
    1. Damn helicopters :fuu:
    2. Minesweepers
    3. Submarines
    Not LHD and US-2
     
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  5. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog Staff Member MODERATOR

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  6. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    No it's not, in fact Jaitley aked the forces to prioritise exactly 3 years ago, when the government came to power, but since then not much happened.
     
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  7. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Mate, Shiv Aroor is a blatant sellout, he does't hide the fact he is close to SAAB and US OEMs, the entire point of this article is that the SE MMRCA is never going to happen and more Rafales are likely then he states this BS about a part 2 on why it should happen.
     
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  8. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    Sadly only NUH are on the anvil, the pathetic 16 (plus 8) unit S-70B deal is all but scrapped and where the f*ck is the RFP for 100+ NMRH MII? It doesn't freaking exist!

    Even if the SP chapter is released today it wouldn't change the IN's helo woes (which are most serious wrt to NMRH), that is entirely of their own making.

    @PARIKRAMA @Ankit Kumar 001 someone explain to me what the IN is thinking because it just doesn't make sense to me. They will spend billions on new LHD but won't have anything heavier than a 4 ton NUH to fly off them.
     
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  9. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Buddy, we can't blame every blogger or journalists to report on what is actually happening. I showed you official statements of nearly any important Indian official talking about the requirement of Rafale or MMRCAs. There are also plenty of reports on LM and Saab responding or preparing for a bid to MoD, because we asked for infos and while we haven't heard from the Indian side about any negotiations with Dassault since the deal went through right? Even the statement of the Dassault CEO at Aero India, stating that a licence production is only possible for an order of at least 100 fighters, is not really positive right?
    So no matter which fighter we like, no matter what deal we might had prefered, there is an official move for an alternative (sadly we can't even rule out the worst case scenario now, F16) and that's what's Livefist and other reports are saying too. It was and still is in Dassaults hand, for 5 years now.
     
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  10. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Still nothing new on part 2?
     
  11. Anish

    Anish BANNED BANNED

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    Some serious brains required here.

    Rafale overpriced. As a nation we will be bled dry acquiring 150-250 over next 5-10 years which we will no doubt. Good and bad both. Needed capability wise. But cost is too much to bear.

    Tejas no hope for next 10 years that a single squadron can be equipped thanks to HAL.

    AMCA is a dream.

    Reality will end up acquiring 100-200 more Su-30's.

    And this is only combat aircraft.

    IAF is in serious trouble. They need some really smart moves and should not expect either big budget or indigenous alternatives.
     
  12. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major Technical Analyst

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    By what measure? When compared to its rivals?

    There is no basis to this when one considers the expansion of the Indian defence budget over the same period and the nature of the payback options (spread over vast ammounts of time as well as signifcant reinvestment into India vis offsets).

    LCA is now finding its feet at last, there is finally a bright future for the LCA that includes new radars, new capabilities and perhaps even the elusive Kaveri.

    Everything is but a dream until it is made a reality, have no doubt there is serious backing for the AMCA within the GoI and MoD.

    1) How will that address the SQN defecit? the IAF requires around 400 new fighters in the next 10 years
    2) How is this a "cheap"/less costly option? Not only are the unit costs of the MKI (especially a later batch) comparable to the Rafale but its life cycle costs are many times more.

    Agreed but the only solution you have outlined is for an inadequate number of unsuitable machines.

    Let's not go down this "all is lost" rabbit hole, let's consider realistic SOLUTIONS.
     
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  13. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    As far as the IAF is concerned, I'm not worried about them. I'm not worried about Rafale and FGFA either.

    I'm not worried about the IN either. They will also get everything they want.

    The only ones I'm worried about is the IA. Their capital expenditure is woefully inadequate.
     
  14. Anish

    Anish BANNED BANNED

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    $150mn/rafale is not something that fits into budget.

    LCA is a program/requirement. Tejas is a failed product part of LCA. LCA needs to be separated from Tejas and realistic option such as Gripen or a Combat Hawk will be LCA.

    Tejas can keep developing as it has since the 1960's. It is not viable for military purposes.

    Kaveri same as Tejas. Maybe worse.

    GoI can back AMCA over GST will not make a difference when there is no competent agency/company to manufacture combat aircrafts in India.

    Rafale can go the M2K way.

    Few in number. But it's the best in the service.

    No way IAF can meet squadron deficiencies.
     

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