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IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Jul 15, 2017.

  1. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    IAF in a Crisis

    Well folks i dont know where to club and post this bcz of various topics it covers ...

    Will try to cover most here

    Genesis of the Single Engine Requirement



    There was a time when an internal assessment was made by MOD approximately 2 years ago. The contents of many to and fro communication are pretty big but few of the points in nutshell is these below

    1. The communication to begin with states that IAF is skeptical on PAK-FA
    2. New improved counter measures in Rafale "N.V." is as good as a planned T-50.
    3. IAF recommends to buy more Rafale's or points of improvement for PAK-FA to make it better than Rafale "N.V."
    4. France especially Dassault team is asking a lot for ToT and its not even complete ToT
    5. Government is opposing everything non-ToT wise and has told explicitly that deal might break unless they understand the expectations and also reduce this demand for high cost.
    6. IAF is very interested in getting huge numbers of Rafales as per every communication (in excess of XXX stand alone for IAF and XXX for IN - thats the overall plan) but its ego is making them write checks that the government cant cash due to existing liabilities and commitments.
    7. The Su30 MKI were also IAF idea from start to finish contrary to the public opinion and perceptions.
    8. The MKI project no matter what anyone says in public is in deep shit
    9. Right now IAF have termed it as a liability on FW Bases

    Thus this was the genesis for requirement of a western fighter cheaper than Rafale, better than LCA and should be capable enough to withstand missions which normally MKI could have taken.

    Since FW bases liability is known, these birds will be basically placed there so they dont need long legs.. anything around a combat radii of 600-800 km is more or less fine but they should be ready for multiroles and fill in the gap of Mig21, Jags and MKIs ( CAS, CAP, DPSA partially and SEAD, DEAD + Air Superiority role secondary)

    This prompted Parrikar to initiate the fighter replacement program and Single Engine Jet plan was mooted. Initially it was hoped that Gripen C/D will be bought and thats why IAF chief took it for a spin too. But lacunae were found in term of roles defined above.

    All boiled down to F-16 Block 70 (rumour is that a block 80/82/84 is in works and will be offered as MLU or may be if we bargain hard it will come sooner, borrowing more sub systems from F-35) and Gripen E/F

    Parrikar has stated that it will be cheaper to Rafale by at least 1/3rd and also a meaningful TOT could be obtained at a much lower cost addressing the core issues which teh letter raised above.

    This will also facilitate easier access to funds and FGFA project which helps to consolidate India Russia relationship further and a long term support for MKI becomes easier to access.

    Unfortunately Parrikar went back and what you see now is very marginal cost differential.. Much lesser than 33% planned and much lower access to technology as well.



    Whats the status Now

    • MKI status in temporary, FW bases will work with other aircrafts for now .
    • Infact North of Delhi bases will be hosting two Tejas next week and seeing how this base comes under FSS (Facilitators Sharing Session) umbrella that is something to be said.
    • France is flexible but they cant offer what F16 and Gripen are offering at a lower price.
    • Talks went from give us full ToT for X billion to give us Max ToT for X-- billion. Stuck bcz of inflexibility
    • PAK FA is stuck because of linking to new generation missiles in the bird and excess funding for its development.
    • Keep in mind that this funding is not only for the PAK FA but also for the missiles so its quite expensive and had the missiles been bought alone there would have been a better discount.
    • These missiles are suppose to be used in Super MKI as well post upgrade.
    This is the situation in hand


    Fractured Thinking and Analysis

    • The best out of all according to IAF is France's deal and given that they will help with 5th gen platforms they say its worth it.
    • But till now the Indian 5th Gen concept shared base with PAK FA and even AMCA gets most of the tech from this PAKFA only.
    • A retake will take much more time and France does not have a 5th gen platform anything they will make will be based on Rafale in short term.
    • There was an offer from them for pseudo stealth Rafale that used missile encloses but those lead to bad stability and handling.
    • IF France does offer us something concrete to build on expertise of Rafale together with our vision, we can always do something about it.
    Growing Indo US Relationship and gaining momentum for a Political Deal

    • It is all a political game (Indo US relationship) and since India is not a military run country the recommendations of IAF are exactly only Rafales
    • US stance for F16 is simple "Excellent Radar + LRM" (Long Range Missile in BVR)
    • They plan to control India with these LRM supply.
    • Integration of India/Russia weapons on F16 is at a stand still and at most the MRM might get integrated but LRM will be American sourced. (some missiles of say approx 40-60kms )
    • The F35 is a carrot for the F16 deal they said in a meeting that the only thing that differentiates the F16 and the F35 mainly is the stealth and other bases remain the same so F35 adds "Stealth" to "Excellent Radar + LRM" giving access to no fly zones.
    • If Rafale is 100% F16 with LRM would be 60-70% but cost wise more than 1 F16's would come under the same cost making F16's fleet more effective than a single Rafale squadron.
    • That is the deep discount American are ready to give out in order to relocate the partial assembling and in turn control India.
    • By ensuring almost all the parts are under USA MIC and only doing limited Assembling in India, LM hopes to reduce cost even further.
    • What of course they wont say is the Opex costs over years and dependency on USA MIC
    • To add to the hurt of France the new investigation includes Rafale, MKI and the retrofitted Jags. (since Darin 3 is proposed for just 65 Jags and even engine till now is not finalised)
    • Investigation by MOD to find solutions and mix of options to address requirements and propose to IAF
    Meanwhile back in USA...

    Screenshot_20170715-123657.png
    Screenshot_20170715-123704.png


    Assessment


    Its clear that there will be a more Political shift and with China Bogey its inevitable. What the above amendment clear is the CISMOA and BECA is clearly a part of initial baby steps but under Common Security Challenge the whole Umbrella of China Bogey is covered.. Under last point of any other matter appropriate means Pakistan is more or less covered along with another amendment which requires Secretary to certify their anti terror work for accessing funds


    What also made situation worse for France and Dassault is DRAL does not have all technology access as well inspite of being a specialized factory in Dassault setup. You see that would have helped easily to push for costs saying money is going to Indian Pvt Sector instead of paying France directly and tieups to local ecosystem. Hence you have this situation. The cost escalation for TOT could have been justified if the local MIC was getting access, benefits and can use it for LCA and future versions and AMCA

    This is the issue in hand.

    Or else there is a high chance a political decision will come and IAF wont get birds of its choice.

    A certain group wants Rafales for IAF curtailed at just 80 . 18 more options and another 36 outright and thats all.. the end of Rafale. It also favors American Jets for Navy and says it helps to strengthen the American Indian relationship further..

    Thus we have the Crisis Situation in IAF. Linked deal in Russia, Conditional deal in USA, Expensive deal in France and Fractured deal in Sweden all have their evils. And Root of all these Evils is our Indecisiveness and inability to do what we set out to do in the first place.


    @Abingdonboy @Ankit Kumar 001 @halloweene @Picdelamirand-oil @vstol jockey @Gessler @randomradio @Hellfire @nair @BON PLAN @MilSpec @GuardianRED @stephen cohen @Agent_47 @all others
     
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  2. Grevion

    Grevion Professional Think Troll ELITE MEMBER

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    Mother of all source-based news from @PARIKRAMA
    :D
     
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  3. Techy

    Techy Zonked Developer Developers -IT and R&D

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    Can you please elaborate more on second point here? I understand that maintenance parts are not available on time and Fleet availability is low (around 60%) and also aircraft is not maintenance friendly but apart from that what is/are the other grave issue/issues with MKI fleet?

    The feedback which I got from few engineers working on MKI bases was: these planes have excellent performance but their overhaul cost more due to poor nature of contract agreed with Russians which force us to buy even a small part from them at exorbitant prices (and it's also very painful task).
     
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  4. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Those who know how to make war want the Rafale, but those who know nothing but politics seek all possible solutions except that which is reasonable.
     
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  5. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Honestly you make my day whenever you give us news.
     
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  6. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    IAF bought 50 Mirage 2000's in 1985.

    It's 2017 and those 50 are the most reliable most available and most lethal aircraft in the entire IAF.

    Even if Rafale is capped at 36 or 72 they will be worth much more then 400 Su30's
     
  7. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    What do you mean by FW base?
     
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  8. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog Staff Member MODERATOR

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    I have been saying this all along, Dassult is very inflexible. They are not ready to share tech to indian MIC but to DRAL which is a half french entity. On top of that they are asking exorbitant price for ToT. Our relationship with russia and Israel has evolved in to a partnership over the years. French still look at as a cash cow. Ironically, French are happy with the fall of MMRCA. They got foothold in a huge market without risk of involving with the current entities there. The orders are only going to increase.
     
  9. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Forward base like Halwara, Pathankot etc

    And other non station bases where IAF operates


    Future is clear now.

    Tejas Mk2 cancelled. End of drama.

    F-16 or Gripen will brought in to replace Mig 21/23/27 on the frontline bases. ( I predicted it in 2014)

    Rafales come in as the superior near stealth tech. Force multiplier in small numbers but most effective like current M2000.

    Su-50 comes in as Su50MKI aka FGFA

    AMCA comes in as new French-German fighter or F-35. Latter being unlikely as US wants to keep stealth out of Russian hands. But then again India is slipping out of the Russian strangulation.
     
  10. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I knew India was skeptical of the FGFA standards, what I did not know was they are skeptical of T-50 standards.
     
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  11. The BrOkEn HeArT

    The BrOkEn HeArT 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    I have heard somewhere that PAK FA 50 is taking part in coming Republic day parade next year??? Is this true?
     
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  12. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    The requirement IN alone is over 150 jets and IAF well over 600 till 2030. IAF is being commanded by a bunch of fools who in their love costly gizmos have landed themselves in present situation. A service which is supposed to respond first across the border is now incapable of fighting a war. If I have my way, I will sack the entire top brass of IAF and send them home with a thankyou card.

    SE program was supposed to be LCA +LSA only. DRDO fucked it up to promote LCA only. The game is simple, IF DRDO can't make it in India, let it be imported and let no one emerge as a competitor to these idiots.

    I hope now you realise the wisdom of my words, " Small logistics foot print" which I wrote in LSA thread. Did I not write that these big birds will not be able to even operate from most of forward bases and will need bases in deep interior which will make them lose most of the flying time in just transiting to and from the target zone. Using Europe as an example and their doctrine as a set doctrine is the most stupid thing we could have done. You fly 30mins in any direction and you end up in someother country in Europe. In India it takes a flight of over three hours just to fly from Bangalore to Jammu. IAF has made choices which have landed it in the mess they are in. They told GOI that each SU-30MKI is 4xMIG-21s and each Rafale is 6xMig-21s. Now keeping these equations, two sqns of Rafale should retire 12 sqns of Mig-21 and IAF does not need anymore aircraft as they will have 15sqns of SU-30MKI which are equal to 60 sqns of Mig-21/27. So now IAF is actually 72sqns strong if we go by what IAF has written in the files. Every chief asking for more aircraft must be kicked in his butt and asked to explain the rational for making such statements. Have I always not written that where you need numbers, the potential and ability of a soldier or aircraft is of no use because you need numbers and numbers are a quality in itself.
     
  13. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Thanks for the weekend points and analysis ..

    Read only part of it.. Enjoyed it . . very thoughtful presentation .

    I cannot keep LSA out of my mind after reading every point.

    Hopefully next week becomes turning point in Indian aviation.
     
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  14. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    So whatever I can think, we are indeed pushed to lose commonality ..

    We need buy weapons theatre specific and keep our indegenous system as a sort of all rounder.
    No wonder we looking at all aircrafts

    Just remembered VSTOL told the aviation Cartels .

    They made sure we don't easily get what we want .

    I am sure they will be many hidden schemes underneath .
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 15, 2017
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  15. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Ah Ok, thanks Anish!
     
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