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IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Jul 15, 2017.

  1. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Kaveri engine holds our true position.
    Will we get outside the control of Aviation giants ?
     
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  2. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Kind of doubt USA wants to control India.
     
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  3. Angel Eyes

    Angel Eyes 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    This is what happens when you depends on others and demote indigenous efforts...
     
  4. GuardianRED

    GuardianRED Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Still trying to wrap my head over the OP, the only way i see is

    1) Ride out the issues with the French and The Russians. Who is milking who will always be the question BUT I do believe they are far more reliable than the US , be it political or Military. This will help us in the long run

    2) Deals with the US though looks nice and shiny - IS is JUST a short term solution JUST to score Vote bank point. The US will permanently have our balls in a rubber band (fight Club) ready to cut it off whenever they choose. We will need a third pair of eyes apart the ones on Pak and china

    Finally, please go with point one, make the deal / compromise and Don't delay!!!
     
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  5. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Not exactly.



    F-16/Gripen replace 3 AC Mig 21, Mig 23 and Mig 27

    Su 50 MKI (Made Commercially in India) replaces Mirage 2000 and Mig 29.

    Rafale comes in and replaces the 3 earlier and some earlier Jags and helps fill in overall numbers.

    5 down and 3 in.

    More commanlity.
     
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  6. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    @PARIKRAMA

    Our weaknesses are

    1 Lack of Technology
    2 Lack of Planes ie a large part of our fleet is due for replacement

    Now we have three suppliers

    Russia -- France and USA

    The question is who " needs " money amongst these three

    Answer is Russia

    So our best Bet lies with taking whatever we can from SU 30 MKi and PAK FA projects

    and invest in AMCA

    Sometimes I wonder if we had used AL 31 for LCA it would have been
    more successful because of Increased Range like J 10

    As far as France and USA are concerned ; we can only negotiate

    They are not desperate for money ; so we will take what we can
     
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  7. Blue Marlin

    Blue Marlin 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Nice to know your calm and doing well


    So this means bye bye t-50 or bye fgfa, or even hello t-50mki?


    Whats rafale nv? That’s new to me, or is that the f4r?

    @abindonboy would be happy then. It is a good idea to replace a forth gen fighter with a 5th gen fighter?



    Ok so iaf wants a lot of rafales, I will come back to this later. What do you mean by non tot wise?




    Whats wrong with the mki’s? and why is it a liability?


    If the tejas is being moved to forward bases then some thing must be seriously be wrong.

    A long leg single engine fighter is being sought (gripen/f16)

    Also coming back to price, if the se fighter are cheaper than the rafale then why don’t india buy more se fighters



    So the mki issue is temporary

    Tot for the rafale is coming with lower tot than offered than the se fighters.

    Russain jets and missiles come separately (duh)

    Any news on the super sokhoi?

    Or even the 40 mki’s that are supposed to be strengthened to hold the brahmos?



    So the t-50 is needed to help aid development of the amca? …….

    If the French are offering tot less than the se tenders then don’t you think you should tred carefully in regards to offering more?


    How is Pakistan covered?

    Whos dral?


    These 80 rafales will they by cots?


    You forgot to quote me
     
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  8. dadeechi

    dadeechi Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Sometimes you have have to give in to attain the larger goals.

    India unfortunately is notorious for not giving in at tactical level and in the process delaying things that hurt it strategically.
     
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  9. Proxy1234

    Proxy1234 FULL MEMBER

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    If India has to really give in somewhere, then shouldn't it be in the matters of money not strategic agreements? Strategic agreements now will stifle India in the future whereas money spent now can be balanced out with increasing economy in the future.
     
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  10. dadeechi

    dadeechi Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Very true. That is the reason why the prolonged cost negotiations are a curse. Imagine Indian navy's state today, had India did not pay the $2 billion dollar for admiral gorshkov?

    At the end of the day we may have lost the money by over paying but have an AC that can take the war to SCS in China's backyard.
     
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  11. Angel Eyes

    Angel Eyes 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Exactly ....I think we should combine fgfa deal with MIG 35 instead of rafales to get more TOT from Russians...
     
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  12. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Well I dont have an option... Strategic Pacts and Geo Political Alignments are more or less decided by this government.

    PM Modi wants minimum 3-4 decades of "borrowed security" in the hands of USA and wants to concentrate on building economy during that period in order to sustain the real growth needed for military hardwares,,, Already his steps within the economy consolidation will slowly show that Indian GDP is growing abruptly and not proportionally across the sectors .Real Indian Economy is anywhere between 3-4X of public GDP and his aim is to reduce this hidden economy and make it more of a public economy.

    Thus we will have a crisis to fund every segment and every need. And this pushes their thinking to become a ally to USA and feel that "security can be outsourced".

    Of course if you ask my personal opinion - Its categorical and simple.. Like Brexit .. this decision will be mother of F ups in the short term. If over time the real economy does grow to 1.5-2-2.5-3X owing to his steps over next decade or 2 and hidden economy gets reduced susbtantially, PM Modi will become the architect of the new India along with FM Arun Jaitley.

    What are the odds of success? Well i wont put my money at all.. Simple, the risk reward and issues in hand with re alignment are not worth of any investment.


    India will always make FGFA provided it pays and gets access to the technology of PAKFA. T50-MKI essentially will be the single seater FGFA with the Israeli and French avionics.

    But Indian wont buy as of now direct PAKFA or T50 nor it will do T50 MKI like it did for Su30 MKI. Russia had been pushing for that route a lot but the IAF issues means the aircraft is unacceptable at present form for even Indian production or MKI route.

    NV is next Version - F4.1/4.2 with Custom stuff as required by IAF

    @Abingdonboy is aware of all this along with @Ankit Kumar 001 for some time. They are not happy owing to the fact that IAF assessment puts Rafale NV at the same league of PAKFA implying the present PAKFA is not a true giant as it was set out to be.

    Secondly, in terms of assessment , PAKFA is still found to be superior to Chinese 5th Gen programs. Thus, IAF contends Rafale NV is good enough for all these threats and needs the fleet of Rafales asap. Use the time to make FGFA and mature it properly to meet the real requirements.

    But the GOI is more inclined for political deal making over technical inputs of IAF

    COts given for products and systems where TOT was not provided for local production. So far Radar, Spectra, Aerodynamics, RAM coating are primary heads which is provided with DRAL .
    Kaveri Engine program is with Safran. More of the tech will flow with orders as part of offsets and the full factory will be ready for a Rafale to be made in India with components sourced from DRAL itself in excess of 51% in value and more in numbers.

    Long list of issues. Its a potent force of PAF owing to numbers and issues pertaining to PAF (of course they wont admit the issues with both F16s and JF17s). But still there are certain key factors which makes them not conducive for Forward Bases.

    In terms of Opex, its still a nightmare and IAF rightly wants it deeper. As an example Turnaround between missions and sorties per day is a chief challenge along with part replacement as needed in the service chart.

    Importantly an MKI squad has more pilots as back up as well.. This is not needed in FW bases especially since MKI is 2 seater.


    Lastly the HAS - Hardened Shelter Space requirement for a MKI is bigger as compared to other small footprint jets. This is costly to make under CAPEX and also is more easily detectable from above.



    Tejas progress is good and its suited for FW bases.

    Contrary to whatever people write and quote saying a Single Engine fighter with Russian Engine derivative doing 1000 km+ combat range, Tejas does a descent 500-600 km combat range in mission loads and tanks. Thats adequate to what its planned missions are for.

    There is no long leg SE fighter. F16s with CFTs and mission loads does around 800-1000km and so also Gripen E (on paper). The rest of the numbers they quote is silly bcz they do have engines are not solar powered to do 3000 km as they claim

    BTW F16s with CFT over wings as per IAF has a limited radii.. It requires the more powerful engine to sustain additional weights and that engine is not the best SFC engine available or known.

    About Price it was said in initial assessment that IF
    Rafale =$100
    F16/Gripe E = $66

    and capability
    Rafale =100
    F16/Gripen E = 80+

    TOT transfer
    Rafale - Limited/partial only upto Offsets
    F16/Gripen - Maximum TOT for full localisation from Day 1 and all Technology available for multiple systems usage.

    What we have received as offers
    Rafale =$100
    F16/Gripen E = $80+ reaching $85-90 with Customizations

    and capability
    Rafale =100
    F16/Gripen E = 60 and with Customization 66
    Handicap -
    1. Pathetic high altitude performance implying it cant do anything over Tibet region and is not suited for Eastern Front
    2. Only suited for Conventional Strikes with no Hardening at all. Missions limited as defined in the so called documentation agreement between nations
    3. No commonality of spares, ammunition, missiles, maintenance schedule, skill set of IAF personnel, training and pilots Flight hours and most importantly strategic mission plan outs.



    TOT transfer
    Rafale - Limited/partial only upto Offsets
    F16/Gripen -
    1. Limited Technology transfer for Gripen E as some of the systems are from black listed entities and IPR sharing /access is declined by multiple parties and including a friendly nation based parties which is its launch customer. In fact the government of friendly nation declined to entertain India's request and stood by its local company's decline (and they are correct doing so)

    2. F16 - India will get limited assembling as its still made in USA MIC based product. Even if its line participants shift to India, it will still be under USA control not India and thus what we will get is limited or less than Limited access to TOT.

    Carrot dangled is LCA MK2 interior will be based on F16 Block 70 with LM helping it to design and thereby fitting F16 systems inside LCA MK2 for their own MIC and line folks for 3 more decades beyond the general Indian F16 orders...

    Thus the initial assessment became hopeless and reality is very tough to swallow for MOD.

    This is why China Bogie will be used for this order in order to camouflage the real shortfalls for both SE jets

    Its under negotiations and will start when last of MKI jets are produced post which Line will be upgraded. Most of PAKFA missiles are marked for the Super Upgrade package and hence there is a massive price haggling from Russian side.

    Indian side wanted Meteor to be integrated in MKI which Russian side is resisiting and pushing their own missiles but at higher costs... its a slug fest and will take some time to find out the true figures.

    Brahmos test is coming next month . 2 are readied and 2 more kept at standy (4 ready+ 2 more under workks out of 40 are ready). Bear it in mind this is Brahmos - A. The heavy one which MKI will carry just 1. The aim is the lighter version which MKI can carry 3. For that you wont require special 40 rather whole fleet will be able to carry as its weight will be similar in range to Scalp ER (1200-1400 kg) with pylons.


    Please refer above. AMCA re planning will need time and resources, And TOT expected in reality as defined above via SE fighters is limited and of no use.

    The fact remains no one will give you unless you pay a price or develop it in house.

    Even now the so called Indian requirement states 90 Jets for full pricing of $15 Bn foir everything included whereas LM and Saab wants 200 Jets for $20 Bn under capex and line setup with basic weapons pack. Customizations extra, Support Packages extra, Opex extra and training packages also extra.

    So you see the difference. reality is far more dark. French side is not costly, the others are as well.. The only chief difference is French side is bluntly asking X $ Dollars for full tech access whereas others are saying we will give but are not showing ways and means to accommodate that in any manner for SE jets deal

    Pakistan is covered via two ways. One is the continuous stifling of Pakistani funds and access via requirements of additional checks + approval from Defence Secretary. Secondly The Quick Reaction Team Plan for taking out Pakistani Nukes is now active with India, Israel and USA as participants.

    Let me quote an example. Please check out if India has ever bought V22 Osprey and Blackhawks.
    6 V22s and 6 Black Hawks with the personnel are stationed in multiple locations. You wont find any public document saying these stationed here. But those who know will keep quiet. I am mentioning this now only bcz Pakistan does nt understand how they have been check mated and how China will turn a blind eye when this raid will happen. Other than noises it will do nothing. In future far more systems are accessible to India as part of the military pact. We will sign CISMOA, BECA and start receiving more systems. Already the surveillance grid and satellite imagery sharing is unprecedented. NSA Doval this time in USA has stitched a military pact that USA themselves cant imagine for next 50 years.

    This is the reason, a political decision in favour of F16 is needed to demonstrate India walking teh talk or any other purchase of that value.



    $110 Mn approx with weapon requirements if needed extra. Customization is fully paid. So now cost of the packaged deals will be much lower owing to Fixed Cost being paid already.

    If a new base requirement comes up then add another $ 1Bn+ for base, its requirements and HAS - Hardened Shelter with it.

    I will now add you as well :)

    Very well said

    Good to see you back..


    +++
    @halloweene @CNL-PN-AA @Abingdonboy
    Your views as well
     
  13. Angel Eyes

    Angel Eyes 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Sir jee I think modi g is making a huge mistake....US is the hidden enemy...It can't be trusted ....Why can't we have china like growth in both millatry and economic sectors without dependency on anyone.....
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
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  14. zebra7

    zebra7 Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Let the country who is spending the money and its Airforce decide what is good for them, and niether IAF and French Airforce have the same statergy, enemy, challenges, and structure. We are still away from Single Aircraft Airforce like France.

    Inditial plan was to bought 250 Mirage 2000H, with 50 direct as flyaway, and rest 200 license produced by HAL. But the economical condition forced India to settle for 50 MK2, and Congress Unknown love with the Russian filled the IAF with the Role based Russian/USSR aircraft. MK2 and Jaguar are consider as very reliable aircraft in IAF, but costs high as compare to the Russian counterpart.

    After MMRCA evaluation, now the concept of total cost of operation through out its service life have comes into play, and an important factor.

    Their is no point of putting MKI in forward bases.

    LCA MK2 cancelled by whom ?? LCA MK2 development is on.

    F-16/Gripen to replace MIG 21/23/27 -- Please present the number and the procurement cost, and does we have such funds.

    FGFA will come in latter stage, around 2030+.
     
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  15. Bloom 17

    Bloom 17 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Could you give little more insight of these two points please.
     
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