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IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Jul 15, 2017.

  1. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Even if we would ignore 1971...

    ...isn't it a fact, that Russia provides us with far more arms technology, than the US ever will (MBT, aircraft carrier, nuclear subs, cruise missiles, stealth fighter)?

    ...isn't it a fact, that we are politically much more aligned to Russia than to the US (UN, BRICS, Iran, Pakistan..., climate change)?

    ...isn't it a fact, that India is one of the countries the US spied the most on?

    ...isn't it a fact that Russia supported during war or sanction times?

    Realistically, we share more interests with Russia than with the US. The only thing that has changed, is that the US need us today to counter China, just as they tried to get Chinese backing to counter us in 71.
    So if we play it smart, we continue our long friendship with Russia, but also use the chance we have right now and get the most out of the US.
     
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  2. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    If war broke out between China and India, who would Russia support?

    Also most of this is pretty biased.


    USA and India relations have been warming up for what ? 5 years? Russia and India have been friends since 1950. That's not a fair comparison. Besides if we believe Parik, USA offered stealth fighter. Russia sold you easily the biggest rip off of a carrier in the world, USA is providing EMAL tech for India's new carrier. IDK why Indians except USA would instantly sell all their best export techs to India like they haven't boughten nearly exclusively from Russia for 60 years.

    I can't believe people still cite brics. 3/5 countries are in the gutter economically.

    History is important, but history doesn't really change current geopolitics.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2017
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  3. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    That was a direct result of an Indian alliance, a recognised NAM leader in a Cold War era, with the Eastern Bloc. I think that is being over rated and totally misplaced in today's world. The paradigm can not go on based on the cold war equations. The dynamics of the geopolitical landscape and emergence of a multi-polar world has changed the calculus.

    The politics should be driven purely on a self interest base. There is no Gold Medal for morality, as the same is a concept of relativity.

    While the pre-eminent battle of ideology (just because they can, they do) between Russia and US will keep going on, the emergence of an economic powerhouse in form of China with a high paced military modernisation and expanding 'claims' based on historical obscurities or claims, is the greater threat for both India and Russia, and also for traditional US allies in the post World War 2 era - Japan and the South East Asia. Of course, it goes without saying that the US economic interests are in the well being of these nation states. Hence, when the convergence of interests are taking place, the realpolitik should rule the roost and not so called ideals.

    While one and all denounce Nehru, there is no mistaking the fact that the antipathy to US is also a part of the very same subset to which the Nehruvian adherence is criticised till date.

    If that is not hypocrisy - then I do not know what is.

    How? Just because we have Communists roaming free in India and talking non-sense and anti-national activities are a part of the same? Or because we have CMs who beat Putin in number of terms? Or because we have state sponsored stifling of opposition in certain quarters? (that is in every country including US)?

    How is Russia and India more aligned over UN? Remember, Afghanistan intervention was sans UN mandate too :)
    BRICS ----> My retort is G7 .... mutual interest and self support group. Russia joined as a post USSR state .. a highly weakened and economically vulnerable state at that.

    Iran: Russian interests are not same as Indian interests in Iran. We will end up derailing this thread over this topic. Do not mistake Russian interests with Indian.

    Pakistan: How is there an alignment over Pakistan?

    Climate Change? Trump is the only standout .. even his States have adhered to the deal and the Federal characteristics allow them to do so .. so a very weak example.

    They spy on everyone. Every state must spy. Read Kautilya ... we also spy on our friends and enemies alike. So what?

    And why dod they do that? Kindly elaborate.

    No they did not try to get Chinese backing in 1971. They were making an outreach in the post Sino-Soviet conflict era. They were reportedly involved in pursuing China to give a dissuasive posture against India. Do not twist facts here. As for more interests with Russia, Russian interests today are to get their sphere of influence in erstwhile NATO/US spheres of influence and to beat the economic sanctions on them, which has hurt them. They have used Chinese for this, in the process creating more problems for India than solutions. Where is the S-400 by the ways? :)

    Russians need India to counter balance China. Period. The faster one accepts that Chinese are a threat for Russian East, the easier one will be able to understand the dynamics.

    At present a weak Russia is struggling to remain significant in World Affairs. And it is wary of stronger China which is now ramping up it's military capabilities on backs of a strong economy.

    It is required to appreciate the concept of "Middle Kingdom". People will be highly mistaken to relegate the concept to being an antediluvian ideology. And prior to 19th Century, none of Chinese neighbours was strong enough to capture it, or exert any kind of influence over it. Indeed, it was reverse and that is what the Chinese aim remains, re-establishment of the order with China at centre.

    If you read the rise of US post the US independence, you will find that every power that rises, inevitably challenges the established world order and assigns/imposes a new one, where it's perceptions of it's roles and it's ideas are the key driving force. What you are dealing with in China is a nation that has existed as China for over 2000 years .. and that is a lot of history for people to forget or forego.

    History is a cycle of instances and occurrences. Concept of Universality collapsed by 17th Century to be replaced by the Concept of Equilibrium amongst nation states led by Richelieu. The concept was practically used by the Great Britain to maintain it's pre-eminence, inspite of numerous challenges thrown by French, Germans, US and the Russians by balancing the French with Russians etc.

    Now you really need to study history to appreciate what I am indicating. Let us study the rise of Germany as an unified nation under Bismarck.

    After it's unification, Germany became the strongest country on the mainland Europe and became both a technological and economic as also political driving force in Europe. The powers of the 'periphery' in Europe - Russia in East, Great Britain in West and France to South, had been exerting pressure over the centre. Now, it was a strong centre. Geographically if you look, the concept was reinforced by the various locales of the countries.

    So all the countries which had greater say and influence namely Russia, GB and France, would likely be in a coalition to contain the centre, which was trying to assert itself as it grew stronger. Bismarck summed it up beautifully by 'la cauchemar des coalitions' - The nightmare of hostile encircling coalitions. But to simultaneously fight all of them, would further cement a coalition, and towards this, he maintained an equilibrium, thereby emphatically defeating the French in their war in 1870, which festered in the French a long standing desire for revanche!

    Of course Hitler broke this equilibrium as did Kaiser Wilhelm prior to him. And the results are there for all to see.

    If you extrapolate it to China and it's views, it shall make some sense :)

    Could not agree more.
     
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  4. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    History is cyclical, only the places change. Germany post 1860-61 and China today :)
     
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  5. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    @vstol jockey

    Point 1 : How about Mig 35 as the lowest cost fighter for FW bases?

    Point 2: What about a scenario if Mig35 with maximum possible production from Indian line comes along as a packaged deal with PAKFA TOT signing amount Bonus?

    Point 3: What about a scenario if Point 1 becomes precusor for accessing Missile Defence and AD system - S400+ other HTK components?

    Point 4: What about a scenario if Super upgrade has the same radar, armaments and other commonality points as Mig 35 and packaged price of Super Upgrade contains these already?


    Take a Guess :This is what is being proposed By Russia with Point 1 as counter to F16/Gripen?


    @Abingdonboy @Ankit Kumar 001 @Picdelamirand-oil @Hellfire @halloweene @Agent_47 @Vergennes @MilSpec @randomradio @Gessler @zebra7 @Lion of Rajputana @stephen cohen @nair @Sathya @Sancho @others
     
  6. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Would the IAF be interested in buying more MiG's though? And as you mentioned earlier, the Government seems strongly determined to strike a political deal with the US for the SE tender.
     
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  7. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major Technical Analyst

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    A political deal with US [If happens] will be followed by a political deal with Russia too.
     
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  8. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    The famous Indian neutrality in action. I very much doubt it would be more than MKI upgrades.

    First off, there will be like no money left after a political deal with the USA and IAF wants for Rafales.

    Second, if you're gonna make a political deal, making another one in the opposite direction spoils the first one.

    Finally, if India wants a deal with Russia it should be for FGFA and nothing else. Mig35 get outta here. Why would Russia need a political deal? Have India and Russia not been friends for the past 60 years?
     
  9. Sahil ecclstone

    Sahil ecclstone FULL MEMBER

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    Y pitch for the mig-35...? there is a very high chance that it too will have engine problems and the delivery of the Indian variant will add delays.[I ASSUME IAF WILL ASK FOR A TAILOR MADE VARIANT WITH DIFFERENT AVIONICS AND OTHER UPGRADES ]
    Availability of the migs is another issue. The think tanks here will know more about the possibility of having mig-35 at fw bases.

    Maybe only the FGFA deal that is rumoured to be signed in the very near future is linked to S-400?
    Pardon me if I have said something wrong as I am just an enthusiast.
     
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  10. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Yes but would that have to include the MiG's, or would S-400, PAK-FA development, and Su-30 upgrade be enough?
     
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  11. MilSpec

    MilSpec Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    I Love the Mig29 Platform, but NO takers for Mig35 including me.

    Also Fulcrums are not as low cost as the sticker price seems, R27ER, Newer K77 in pipeline along with the RVV SD, have quite a bit of premium. Plain jane RVV AE and R27T are offered by russians which pretty much nobody wants.
    Same is the case with the KH31 and Kh35, I forget the lighter variant esignation but the newer avatars of weapons package has some serious premium attached.

    Life of the engine still remains dismal, although it does have an impressive SFC, and finally its still needs improvement in range.

    All of these factors in addition with extremely poor after sales support from Rosoboron leads a very high operating and equipping cost.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2017
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  12. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    The Mig-35 is cheap if you buy directly from Russia. But it will be as expensive as any other jet in India. So it's good enough as a direct purchase deal for the IN's 57 jet tender. But it's not a good option if you manufacture them in India.

    Plus, the Mig-35 is not competing with Gripen and F-16, it is competing with SH, Typhoon and Rafale. So the question of it replacing the Gripen and F-16 is not even in the picture.
     
  13. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Mig-35 comes with same problems as SU-30MKI. Unfit for operations from forward bases. They need long logistics lines and therefore can't operate from satellite airfields. You need small fighters to operate from FBs & ALGs. Smaller the aircraft, smaller is the logistics reqt. Moreover Mig-35 is not a low cost fighter by any stretch of imagination. It is an MMRCA.

    TOT and production in India or any bonus deal with it will not solve the crisis facing IAF. Mig-21 and F-16 are in such a sweet spot that no other aircraft presently in production can take their spot. Wars have always been one by low cost, mass produced weapons. Costly equipment has never been able to win a war in history.

    If you need a needle, will you go and buy a sword and will sword do the job of a needle? will any additional buy give the ability to use sword in place of needle? What IAF needs is capability and capacity building. IAF has good capability in terms of SU-30MKI and Rafale. My view of ordering one more sqn of Rafale is for that reason but to build capacity, we need low cost home grown fighter like LCA & MSA. Russia will sell S-400 to us once we take a decision regarding the next fighter and close the option for any further new fighter.

    SU-30MKI needs a very deep upgrade. A piecemeal upgrade with minor addition of capability will not work. It will be a wastage of resources. IMHO, SU-30MKI must come with a western AESA, IRST, MDPU and active cancellation.

    Neither F-16 nor gripen NG will find favours with IAF. They just don't want any more single engine aircraft.
     
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  14. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I am sure
    software / electronic hardwiring for anti jamming
    Small logistics foot print
    Engine issues

    Are all yet to be satisfied for IAF .
     
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  15. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major Technical Analyst

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    S400, PMF and Su30 upgrade are done.....

    It will be in addition to it , and at least 80% in value to the American deal.
     
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