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IAF VS PAF Strike Capability Analysis

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Bad Wolf, Apr 7, 2011.

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  1. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Initial strike carried out by Indian MiG-27's, MiG-23's, MiG-21's and Jaguar's on forward Pakistani command posts, airfields, weapon storage facilities (namely nuclear weapons and IRBM) and communication relay stations escorted by LCA, Su30MkI , MiG 29's, MiG-23's, Mirage 2000 and MiG 21-93's. While the Indian Naval Harriers , MiG 29k's (yet to arrive in India )and attack craft attack the port of Karachi in an attempt to close it to keep reinforcements from sympathetic Islamic countries coming in via sea.
    In such a situation the Pakistani Air Force would have a major problem securing their airspace mainly due to the fact that their aircraft lack any real BVR (beyond visual range) capability or look-down shoot-down capability with only their F-16's having a look-down shoot-down capability but limited to only AIM-9 Sidewinders (Note:- although Pakistan is thought to have up to 500 AIM-7 Sparrows the only F-16's capable of firing them are the F-16 Block 15 ADF used by the USAF), half of the F-16's are grounded due to spare problems. While their Mirage III's , V's , F-7's (MiG-21) and F-6's (MiG-19) have no look-down shoot-down capability and no BVR capability. While this gap may be filled in the near future through the FC-1 fighter while this would the PAF a look-down shoot-down capability that it presently lacks it would not be superior to theSU30MkI, MiG-29, Mirage 2000 or the LCA. Thus at present this means that if Indian attack aircraft come in at low level Pakistani aircraft would have difficulty in detecting IAF aircraft and have no capability of engaging them at long range. While the Indian escort aircraft having a BVR capability with weapons including AA-10 Alamo's , AA-12 Adders and Super 530D AAM's would have the capability to engage PAF aircraft at medium/long range allowing IAF attack aircraft to operate under an umbrella of air cover, thus giving the IAF effective air superiority over much of the battle field. ( There have also been reports that the IAF have treated their front line aircraft such as the Jaguar, MiG-29, MiG-27 and Mirage 2000 with a stealth material said to reduce the RCS of aircraft by up to 70% and increases weight by up to 50kg, Aircraft & Aerospace Asia-Pacific, Feb. 1996 pg.20). Without a BVR capability Pakistan has to rely on a SAM system based primarily on short range SAM's like the Crotale and man portable SAM's like the Stinger and indigenous Anza, here to Pakistan lacks the modern SAM system that most armies now have. While the IAF will sustain losses to SAM's without a medium range, low-medium altitude SAM Pakistan will suffer serious losses to Indian deep strike missions.
    Another weakness of the PAF is their apparent lack of dedicated attack aircraft with the Q-5 Fantan being their only dedicated strike aircraft , with the F-6's (MiG-19's) and Mirage III / V having to double as point defence fighters or interceptors. Secondly none of these aircraft have the capability to deliver PGM's only 'dumb' bomb's. The best strike aircraft possessed by the PAF is the F-16 but it is unlikely that Pakistan would use it's only advanced fighter in a strike role. This limits the ability of the PAF to strike deep into India or hit targets with any great precision. This has been recognized by the Pakistani Government which attempted to fill the hole with attempted procurements of both the Su-27 and the Mirage 2000. Both procurement programs were abandoned after the respective companies pulled out after pressure by India as both companies are lobbying for a multi billion dollar training aircraft contract for the IAF and due to spiralling costs. Most recently the PAF has become involved in the FC-1 program , an aircraft which would be powered by the RD-93 , be equipped with an advanced look down - shoot down radar and have a g-limit of + 8g's (possibly 9+ for the PAF). In comparison the IAF recently acquired a PGM capability with the acquisition of the Rafael Litening laser designation pod for it's Jaguar's and Mirage 2000. While it is investigating the possibility of upgrading it's MiG-27 attack aircraft.
    The IAF's superiority in aircraft with 135 modern combat aircraft (with 125 MiG 21 to be upgraded to the 21-93 standard, a projected 200 LCA to be delivered by 2010 and 40 Su-30MKI's with the option to manufacture 100) to the PAF's 38 (with a possible 150 FC-1's to be delivered within the next 10-15 years provided the program continues) would result in the IAF gaining almost complete air superiority over much of the battle field while limiting the ability of the PAF to strike deep into India.
    It is also probable that Saudi Arabia may loan Pakistan an AWACS aircraft as Russia has previously done with the Tu-126 Moss. It is also probable that if Saudi Arabia were to send Pakistan an AWACS that they would also send along at least one squadron of F-15 interceptors as escort for the AWACS as well as to defend the AWACS in operations. While an AWACS if would be a massive improvement in Pakistan's air defence capability, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would send more than 1 and without an airborne refuelling system and because of post flight maintenance the AWACS would probably be limited to 1 flight per day (with 12 hours on patrol). It is also possible that the United Arab Emirates would provide help in the form of Mirage 2000's. Another potential vulnerability of the Pakistani air force is its dependence on ground controlled intercept's, any attacks on control towers, command and control centres and the use of communications jamming could cause significant problems to airborne units which would find themselves isolated and due to the lack of effective radars unable to engage the enemy. This type of tactic would be particularly effective at night as it would allow Indian fighters to engage Pakistani units at long range at relatively low risk.
    The PAF would be expected to lose about 40-50% of it's aircraft while the IAF would be expected to sustain losses of around 20% - 30% consisting of mainly MiG-21's and other ground attack aircraft which would be forced to get into close combat with the PAF aircraft as well as loses due to Pakistani SAM's such as the Crotale and the large number of hand held SAM's. The overall lack of modern aircraft seriously damage's the capability of the PAF in defending Pakistani airspace despite the high quality of it's pilots.
     
  2. RoYaN

    RoYaN Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    ^^^^^^ source?????
     
  3. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Military Strength: Comapre India and Pakistan

    Manpower and Ground Forces



    India has the second largest manpower in its military globally - at 3,773,300 personell (2005), next only to China. Pakistan has a much smaller manpower of 1,449,000 personell which is proportionally higher than India in terms of their population ratios. Pakistan’s ground forces are equipped with American or Chinese weapons like FIM 92 Stinger SAMs, BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missiles, T-82 tanks and other equipments. Indian ground forces are equipped mostly by home-made or Soviet technologies like IR guided 9K35 Strela-10 SAMs, 3rd Gen IR guided Nag anti-tank missiles, UAVs and a large inventory of tanks and support vehicles. In terms of numbers and equipments, both Indian and Pakistani ground forces are on an closely equal footing.

    Comparison of Air Forces

    As of 2006, Indian Air Force (IAF) has over 170,000 personnel and 3,382 aircrafts of which 1,330 are combat aircrafts operating off 61 airbases - making it the fourth largest air force in the world. India’s strike fighters consist of Russian and French aircrafts like Mikoyan MiG-29, Dassault Mirage 2000, Sukhoi Su-30 - the last one developed under dual licensing by HAL, India’s aerospace industry in Bangalore. In addition to these, India’s air force owns ground attack aircrafts, reconnaissance aircrafts, UAVs and support helicopters - a majority of them either of Soviet or French origin. Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has about 530 combat aircrafts and over 65,000 active personnel, operating out of 9 airbases. Its strike fighters consist of US, Chinese and French fighters like F-16 Fighting Falcon, JF-17 Thunder and Dassault Mirage ROSE-III. It also has transport aircrafts like Lockheed Martin C-130 and Airbus A310, however there are no UAVs or reconnaissance aircrafts in the Pakistani Air Force.

    Naval and Sea Based Forces

    After the overwhelming losses in the 1971 war against India, Pakistan rapidly increased the size of its naval fleet which doubled in the 1980s after a massive 3.2 billion dollar military and economic aid by US President Ronald Reagan. At present, Pakistan’s navy owns over 45 vessels , most of them of US or European origin which include submarines, destroyers, frigates, patrol and mine warfare boats. It operates from its sole naval port in Karachi and naval facilities in UK, USA and France. It had recently been involved in various humanitarian operations during the 2005 Tsunami in South East Asia. Indian Navy on the other hand, is a three dimensional naval force consisting of missile-capable warships, an aircraft carrier, mine sweepers and a host of marine aircrafts; most of its warships indigenously built in its own dockyards. The navy operates from its major naval bases in Visakhapatnam, Mumbai, Goa and the Andaman Islands. Indian Navy has significant capabilities of being a true blue water Navy and is experienced both in war and peacekeeping operations in the Indian Ocean.

    The Nuclear Club

    India tested a nuclear bomb in 1974 using materials from Canada and technical help from Soviet Union. However the embargo in heavy water export from Canada after the test stalled India’s nuclear ambitions till 1998, when it shocked the world by conducting five nuclear detonations termed as Shakti tests. The highest yield was by a 48 kiloton staged fusion device, which India claimed was a thermonuclear bomb but seismic data on the tests proved otherwise. In the same year 1998, Pakistan conducted a series of six nuclear detonations in a test termed as Chagai. The highest yield was reported to be about 25 kiloton from a two stage boosted device. At present Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile is slated to be around 30-40 warheads while India possesses 70-100 warheads. The nuclearisation of India and Pakistan became a turning point in the history of conflicts between these two countries with high tensions but no war, not very much unlike the US vs USSR Cold War.

    Ballistic and Cruise Missile Proliferation

    In the nuclear delivery front, both India and Pakistan have a series of ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to ground attack aircrafts. The maximum range among India’s operational ballistic missiles is 2000 km achieved by Agni-2. India’s Agni ballistic missiles are indigenously developed by its own missile defence industry known as IGMDP. The maximum range among Pakistan’s missiles is by Hatf V Gauri which is reported to do over 2200 kms. Pakistan’s Hatf missiles are based on North Korean No-Dong series of IRBMs. Both Pakistan’s Hatf and India’s Agni ballistic missiles are nuclear capable. India has also developed a supersonic cruise missile BrahMos which is by far the fastest cruise missile at Mach 2.6 and maximum range of 290 km. It is reported to be nuclear capable but it is not confirmed yet. On the Pakistan side, its Babur cruise missile has a reported range of 700 km and a maximum speed of 880 km/h (Mach 0.7). As with India BrahMos, Babur is also reported to be nuclear capable but there is no confirmation yet.

    The Final Verdict

    Both Pakistan and India are almost evenly matched head to head in nuclear and missile fronts, however India has strategic and technological superiority over the conventional forces of Pakistan. Indian Navy is larger in fleet and personnel size with a more varied range of ships including an aircraft carrier while Pakistan’s Navy is smaller and has no aircraft carriers. Indian’s IAF is equipped with highly capable fighters like 4.5th generation Su-30s and 4th gen Mirage 2000s which are technologically superior to Pakistan PAF’s F-16s and Mirage IIIs. Additionally Indian pilots are better trained and more capable in air combat than Pakistani forces as was demonstrated by its various wars with Pakistan or joint exercises with US and UK. In the area of conventional ground forces both the Indian as well as Pakistani Army is well equipped and highly trained to survive in extremities of topography and climate in combat conditions, like wars in the high Himalayas.

    If a purely conventional war were to take place between both these countries, India would most likely overpower Pakistan owing to its superior military technology and infrastructure, larger manpower, more territorial area and a strategic advantage in its sea and air forces. It must also be noted that a war between these two countries will matter more than India’s conventional superiority as both these nations are nuclear powers on an equal deadlock. India has maintained a ‘no first use’ nuclear policy on the lines of a similar policy by China while Pakistan does not have any such policy, considering their only hope against India is in nuclear deterrence. It would be risky for India at the present scenario to go into any aggressive war against Pakistan as the repercussions would be serious a nuclear devastation for both countries.

    Comment:

    India's numerical and technical superiority in a conventional war is beyond question - therefore Pakistan's low nuclear threshold and maintenance of the first-use option.

    However, in a surgical kind of strike being talked about in Indian and Pakistani circles, over Muridke or Muzaffarabad , cruise missiles are likely to be used. The Pakistani and Indian capability is evenly matched in these except for India's supersonic cruise missile with a speed of Mach 2.6 which is an obvious advantage in this kind of a strike, but it only has a range of 290 kms - enough to reach Muridke if launched from East Punjab but not much more. Pakistan's answer is the Babur cruise missile with a range of 700 km and a speed of Mach 0.7 - sub-sonic but pretty fast.

    UAV's was the other Indian advantage which has recently been matched by Pakistan.

    With the evenly matched air, missile and nuclear capability, a surgical strike doesn't seem to be the best option. If India is to win, it will have to be a full-scale conventional war with both sides avoiding breaching the other's nuclear threshold.

    Is that possible?

    Therefore, I do not think there will be an India-Pakistan military confrontation.
     
  4. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Pakistan
    AIR FORCE
    SYSTEM Inventory
    2005
    COMBAT 327
    JF-17 -
    F-16 32
    Mirage III 87
    Mirage 5 52
    Q-5 42
    J-7 74
    J-6 40
    SUPPORT / RECON
    Mirage IIIRP 11
    Falcon DA-20 2
    Atlantic 3
    SA-316/319 Alouette 3 15
    TRANSPORT
    C-130 7
    Boeing 707 3
    Boeing 737 1
    Falcon 20 1
    F-27-200 3
    Y-12 (II) 2
    SA-315B Lama -
    SA-316/319 Alouette 3 15
    SA-321 -
    TRAINING
    K-8 30
    FT-7 (J-7) 13
    FT-6 (J-6) -
    FT-5 (J-5) 30
    Mig-15UTI -
    T-37B/C 20
    T-33A -
    MFI-395 Mashshaq-2 25
    MFI-17 Mashshaq 170
    CJ-6 (PT-6A)
    MISSILES
    AD
    Crotale 144
    CSA-1 (SA-2) 6
    ASM
    AM-39 Exocet +
    AGM-65 Maverick +
    AS-30 +
    AGM-84 Harpoon +
    AAM
    AIM-7 Sparrow +
    AIM-9 Sidewinder -
    AIM-9L/P Sidewinder +
    R-530 Magic +
    R-550 Magic - P
    ARM
    AGM-88 Harm +
     
  5. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    India
    AIR FORCE
    SYSTEM Inventory
    2005
    BOMBERS -
    Canberra -
    Fighter/Attack 700
    MCA -
    LCA -
    MRF -
    Su-30K 50
    Mirage 2000H/TH Vajra 68
    Jaguar S(I) Shamsher 81
    Mig-29/UB Baaz 63
    Mig-27 Bahadur 135
    Mig-23 BN/UM Vijay 52
    MiG-23 MF/UM Rakshak -
    Mig-21 MF/PFMA Trishul 55
    Mig-21 FL/U Trishul 66
    Mig-21 bis/U Vikram 130
    Ajeet -
    ECM
    Canberra B(I) 58 4
    TT-18 (target towing) 2
    Mig-21M (ECM) +
    ELINT
    Boeing 707 2
    Boeing 737 2
    AEW
    Phalcon ??
    HS-748 ASP -
    TANKER
    IL-78 12
    MARITIME ATTACK
    Jaguar S(I) 6
    ATTACK HEL
    Mi-25 -
    Mi-25/35 20
    Dhruv ALH ++
    RECCE
    Canberra PR-57 6
    Canberra PR-67 2
    Mig-25R 5
    Mig-25U 2
    HS-748 -
    MR/SURVEY
    Gulfstream IV SRA 2
    Learjet 29 2
    TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT
    Il-76 Gajraj 25
    Il-214 MTA -
    An-32 Sutlej 75
    An-12B -
    BAe-748 28
    Do-228 63
    DHC-4 -
    DHC-3 Otter -
    HELICOPTERS
    Mi-8 73
    Mi-17 50
    Mi-26 (hy tpt) 10
    Chetak (Alouette III) ++
    Dhruv ALH ++
    VIP
    Boeing 707-337C -
    Boeing 737-200 2
    BAe-748 7
    Mi-8 6
    TRAINING
    Hawk -
    Jaguar B(I) 14
    Mig-29UB 9
    AJT 24
    HJT-36 50
    HJT-16 Kiran I 70
    HJT-16 Kiran II 56
    TS-11 Iskra 44
    HPT-32 Deepak 88
    HT-2 -
    Hunter T-66 -
    Hunter F-56 -
    BAe-748 (trg/tpt) 28
    Canberra T-4/-13/-67 -
    Chetak (Alouette III) 20
    Mi-24 2
    Mi-35 2
    MISSILES
    ASM
    Akash -
    AM-39 Exocet +
    AS-7 Kerry +
    AS-11B (ATGW) +
    AS-12 +
    AS-17 Krypton +
    AS-30 +
    Sea Eagle +
    Prithvi SS250 +
    AAM
    AA-2 Atoll -
    AA-7 Apex +
    AA-8 Aphid +
    AA-10 Alamo +
    AA-11 Archer +
    R-550 Magic +
    Matra Super 530D +
    SAM
    Divina (SA-2) 280
    SA-3 -
    Pechora (SA-3) +
    SA-5 +
    SA-10 +
     
  6. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    got this from one forum
     
  7. RoYaN

    RoYaN Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Name???
     
  8. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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  9. RoYaN

    RoYaN Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    This Assessment is Full of Flaws My friend !!
    For starters the New BlK 60's have not been taken in to account nor has the fact that the MiG-23 has been retired so has the MiG-25 also to note its 6 years old!!
     
  10. Optimist

    Optimist Lieutenant SENIOR MEMBER

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  11. Ved Mishra

    Ved Mishra Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Please for God's sake !!!!!!
    If it all it will be IAF Vs PAF it will be the brain of the western air command of India and the then air chief marshal vs the brain of the pakinstan eastern command and the brain of its air chief marshal.

    remember its the brain and courage behind the machines which plan and execute the war machines and not vice versa.
    If these were not true then Gnats would have never shot down F86 sabre in 1971.

    Eventually though it would be defeat and decimation of PAF.
     
  12. Spartacus+

    Spartacus+ Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    The only advantage IAF have over PAF is more number of aircrafts.
    Indian airforce crash rate is enough to prove Indian airforce is not in Top 40 air forces of the world.
     
  13. DaRk KnIght

    DaRk KnIght Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Lets us compare crash rate of F-16 and MKI..primary fighters of both the air forces......


    I know you will not reply to this post because as per your logic pakistan wont be in top 100 airforces of the world.
     
  14. kingofkings

    kingofkings FULL MEMBER

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    For the crash rate Mr intelarpit has already posted a reply and Regarding the advantage 'cause of number

    You think that IAF has an edge only 'cause of the number !!!! .... Face the facts IAF is already in the phase of upgrading their Su 30 MKI's with AESA radars and already developing their fifth gen aircraft ( PAK FA without considering AMCA ) .... MRCA will also consist of the AESA radars ....

    Still you think it is the numbers .... I pity you ....
     
  15. Spartacus+

    Spartacus+ Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    F-16 with SU-30MKI there is no comparison 23 nations operate F-16s only India operate SU-30MKI Russian didn't inducted into their airoforce.

    We got F-16s in 1980's- 10 years of sanctions no spare parts and we lost 9 aircrafts in total.
    Pakistani F-16s have record of 100,000 accident free flying hours.
    http://www.f-16.net/news_article1468.html<br /privacy.htmll

    Total number of IAF crashes are over 600 and CAG report says 45% due to human error so there is no point in defending by implying low IQ logics its a clear information and facts admit them, improve training and retire all flying coffins.
    Currently as i said IAF only advantage over PAF is number of aircrafts and money.
     
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