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India a global military power by 2045: UK study

Discussion in 'International Relations' started by tusharm, Jul 4, 2014.

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  1. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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    India a global military power by 2045: UK study | Defenceradar News

    A global scenario projected by Britain’s ministry of defence says that by 2045 India is likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globally with the third largest defence expenditure pegged at 654 billion US dollars.

    Titled ‘Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045’, the publication by the ministry’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre sets out what the world might look like 30 years from now. It looks at a range variables, including energy, mineral resources, conflict and migration.

    “Although China’s military-industrial complex is unlikely to surpass the technological sophistication of the US by 2045, it may rival it in terms of size, as could India’s. Both India and China will probably seek to develop sizeable and technically advanced armed forces, including ocean-going navies, capable of delivering an enduring and capable maritime
    presence both regionally and further afield”, the paper says.

    The analysis on South & East Asia and Oceania says: “The military capabilities of other countries in the region are also likely to increase but only China, India, Australia, Japan (which is actively increasing its military capability) and South Korea are likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globally”.

    However, the analysis notes that although India is likely to spend more on defence than the UK, it will “almost certainly have to overcome domestic political issues and improve the way it invests to attain the capabilities needed to project conventional military power globally”.

    According to the projection, the US and China are likely to have similarly sized defence budgets, potentially out-spending the rest of the world by 2045. India could have a defence budget equivalent to the EU’s total spending on defence, it says.

    “Additionally, China, India and the US are likely to lead in defence-related research and development – further enhancing their military capabilities”, the paper says.

    In terms of Technology, the paper says that China and India are likely to attain global leadership in select technical disciplines, achieving parity with the West in a number of
    niche areas as soon as 2015 and more widely by 2045.

    Stating that China and India will “almost certainly continue to be the dominant powers” in the region, the paper says that the ways the two countries manage their societies’ demands and their internal methods of governance will be important to the region’s development.

    In terms of conflict, it is projected that Kashmir would continue to one of the areas of tension, including the border between China and India. “The risk of a major state-on-state conflict in the region cannot be ruled out”, it says.

    The paper is based on inputs from a range of individuals and global institutions, including India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, United Services Institute and the Vivekananda International Foundation.

    Hindustan Times
    India a global military power by 2045: UK study | Defenceradar News
     
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  2. Gessler

    Gessler BANNED BANNED

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    A $ 654 billion defence expenditure means we might be heavily investing in R&D in defence field.
     
  3. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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    totally agree with you .

    2nd we are investing in almost all the fields . let it be SSN's , UAV's ,tanks , missiles ,survival suits, infantry weapons etc . All this may start to bear fruits towards end of this decade .(in-fact most of them has already started to show)
     
  4. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    The amount is actually too small. The Chinese could reach that figure within the next 10 years and we might be just 5-10 years after that, not 2045.

    By 2045, the Chinese could be spending twice what the US spends. China's GDP was $2T in 2005. Just 9 years later, they are nearly $10T. They are gonna surpass the US in just 6 more years. And probably double the US by 2030.
     
  5. Vidyanshu

    Vidyanshu Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Huston we have a problem!!
    According to this report-
    [​IMG]
    You can see, India's current defence expenditure is 117-bn $, we are not even half of that..
    They are taking defence budget as % of GDP(PPP)............should have taken it in terms of Nominal GDP
     
  6. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Just because you have a large GDP does not mean you can spend a large amount on the military if you got 1.5 billion people to look after which is the estimated population of India by 2050.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2014
  7. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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    just because you can get large loans from china,IMF & all possible sources to fund your military , doesn't mean you will get these loans 10 years later.

    :india::india::india:
     
  8. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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    And just keep in mind that if these 2 billion(you are wrong on this one) will pay 100 $$ as taxes then we have 200 billion dollars instantly.

    :india::india::india:

    Jai Hind , Jai Bharat
     
  9. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Lol. They have severely understated both India's and China's defence budgets by then.

    We need to grow at 3% if we are to reach that figure by 2045.

    At 6% growth we will have reached that figure in 15 years or by 2030. And quadrupled that by 2045.

    At 6% growth until 2040, our PPP based defence budget should be $1.4T. So, more than twice what they have stated. And 6% growth is quite realistic for India.

    If we assume that under Modi we will start growing at 10% for 20 years, which is almost half what China managed, then we would be at $1.65T defence budget by 2035. Even growing 5% after that until 2045 would mean a defence budget of $2.5T by 2045. All values in PPP. In nominal terms with today's exchange rate we will be equal to the US of today only by 2045.

    As for China, lol. The figure is also completely wrong. If we give the Chinese a very modest growth of 5% every year until 2045, then their PPP defence budget will be in the region of $3T.

    Also note that I have taken Indian defence budget at 3% of the GDP while I have taken 4.5% for China. US is also at 4.5%. So, I have inflated the Indian budget a bit as it is under 2% today while it is more than 4% for China and the US.

    By 2045, the US will only be a little bit bigger than China, which is quite incorrect going by other reports.

    If both India and China keep growing gradually, they will both surpass the US pretty soon, before 2030 and maybe twice the US by 2045. By that time you will have to combine both the US and EU's defence budgets just to match either India's or China's.
     
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  10. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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  11. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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  12. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    $1,167.00 at 7 percent growth for 30 years.
    End of Year 1:$1,251.36
    End of Year 5:$1,654.37
    End of Year 30:
    $9,471.95
     
  13. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    US at 2 percent growth for 30 years
    End of Year 1:$46,788.72
    End of Year 5:$50,682.23
    End of Year 30:$83,526.11
     
  14. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all the hoopla over the Dow topping 17,000 out of the way, the market's next focus will be whether the fast-approaching earnings season can justify U.S. stocks continuing their climb further into record territory.
    Many factors point to a second-quarter earnings season poised to surprise substantially to the upside, with an outside chance that profits for S&P 500 (.SPX) companies could return to double-digit growth for the first time in nearly three years.
    On the heels of Thursday's strong U.S. employment report, some economists have begun talking up prospects for a 4.0 percent annual growth rate in gross domestic product for the April-through-June period, a dramatic snap back from the first quarter's contraction of 2.9 percent.
    "It's a strong report that capped off a strong quarter. Everything in the report points to 4 percent growth in the second quarter," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh, referring to the jump in June's nonfarm payrolls.
    Analysts polled by Reuters are calling for earnings growth for the second quarter of 6.2 percent, and a return to double digits in the third and fourth quarters: 10.9 percent and 11.9 percent, respectively.
    The last time that S&P 500 earnings achieved double-digit percentage growth was the third quarter of 2011 - at 18 percent.
    But some signs suggest the 10 percent handle could be breached a quarter earlier by the time all of the second-quarter numbers are in.
    "There is a chance that earnings could see double digits this quarter, but only a very slim chance. The strong jobs report today can translate to better earnings after a period of time but it can't be immediate," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
    First, earnings pre-announcements from companies have the most positive skew in six quarters.
    Of 133 pre-announcements from S&P 500 components so far, 97 have been negative, 24 positive and 12 in line with existing forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data.
    That puts the negative-to-positive ratio at 4-to-1 for the second quarter, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2012. Moreover, that compares with 5.9-to-1 in the first quarter and 5.5-to-1 a year earlier in the second quarter of 2013.
    Second, actual earnings growth tends to exceed forecast growth by a sizable margin, because companies and the analysts who track them tend to underestimate profits.
    Since the fourth quarter of 2009 when corporate profits returned to growth after the recession, actual S&P 500 earnings growth at the end of each quarterly reporting cycle exceeded the growth forecast at the start of each reporting period by an average of 5.7 percentage points.
    Even factoring out the outsized profit growth rates in the first six quarters following the recession, earnings have come in an average of nearly 3 percentage points higher than were forecast at the start of each reporting season.
    In the first quarter, for example, the profit growth rate on April 1 was pegged at 2.1 percent. When the numbers from all 500 companies in the index were tallied, though, it was actually 5.6 percent, 3.5 percentage points higher.
    With the Dow and the S&P 500 in record territory and an S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6, the highest in nine years, a substantial break to the upside on earnings would be a welcome development for investors.
    "We've had such a big move to this point that good data just isn't enough to drive this market much further. It's really coming down to company earnings. That's the only thing left that can lead this market higher," said Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management, an investment advisory firm in Jersey City, New Jersey.
    On Thursday, the Dow broke above the 17,000 milestone for the first time and the S&P 500 came within 1 percent of piercing through 2,000. The Dow is up 3 percent for the year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 7.4 percent.[.N]
    (Reporting by
     
  15. tusharm

    tusharm Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Surpassing China, India will become the world's largest economy by 2050, says a report.

    "China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050," according to Wealth Report 2012 by Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank.

    As per the report, Indian economy will reach $85.97 trillion size in terms of purchasing power parity by 2050, while the Chinese GDP would be $80.02 trillion during the same period.

    The US -- currently the world's largest economy -- is expected to have a GDP of $39.07 trillion by 2050.

    Other nations in the top ten list of world's largest economies would be Indonesia (4th), Brazil (5th), Nigeria (6th), Russia (7th), Mexico (8th), Japan (9th) and Egypt (10th).

    In terms of growth from 2010-2050, India would be the second fastest with its economy growing at the rate of eight per cent in the period.

    With a pace of 8.5%, Nigeria would be the fastest growing economy during the same period, the report said.

    In 2010, India was world's fourth largest economy with a value of $3.92 trillion compared to China's $9.98 trillion and America's $14.12 trillion.
     
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