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India Has Capacity To Produce Hundreds Of New Nuclear Bombs

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by Inactive, Oct 26, 2016.

  1. Inactive

    Inactive Guest

    ‘India has capacity to produce hundreds of new nuclear bombs’
    A REPORTER — UPDATED about 19 hours ago

    ISLAMABAD: A new study indicates that India has sufficient material and the technical capacity to produce between 356 and 492 nuclear bombs.

    The study titled ‘Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program’ which was published by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) and was co-authored by four nuclear scholars, unveils a new and comprehensive assessment of India’s nuclear weapon capacity The launch of the study at the ISSI on Monday was attended by foreign diplomats, scholars, journalists and students.

    Speaking at the event, ISSI Board of Governors Chairman Ambassador Khalid Mahmood said the book gives a fresh perspective on India’s unsafeguarded nuclear program, will be read with interest around the world and will benefit scholars and diplomats alike.

    An internationally known physicist and a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials Dr A.H Nayyar said the book was a significant addition to the existing material on the size, history and capacity of India’s nuclear program. He also highlighted a number of weaknesses and flaws in the book and suggested the ambiguities be removed in the next edition.

    Former Chairman Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Ansar Pervez said the research breaks new ground by providing officials, researchers, scholars and students with new insight into India’s nuclear weapon making capacity.

    Study reveals India has largest, oldest unsafeguarded nuclear programme in developing world
    He said that in terms of detail, depth, analysis and the use of information from primary sources, the research is far superior to several studies on the Indian nuclear program and carefully blends social science perspective with technical details.

    Mr Pervez added that the book will also expand international awareness, policy discourse and academic debate on this secretive and unsafeguarded program.

    ISSI’s Dr Naeem Salik then chaired a discussion between the authors and called the study a “pioneering effort”. The four authors – including Adeela Azam, Ahmed Khan, Mohammad Ali and Sameer Khan- said that the purpose of the study was to provide an understanding of the true history, size, extent and capabilities of the different aspects of the complex Indian nuclear program which New Delhi has kept outside the International Atomic Agency safeguards.

    The authors said the study contains evidence that India has the largest and oldest unsafeguarded nuclear programme in the developing world and among the states not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

    They said that member states of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) should consider the large and swiftly expanding Indian nuclear bomb capacity when dealing with India’s NSG membership and ensure that Indian membership of this export control arrangement does not, in any way, help India expand and accelerate its nuclear weapons program.

    Published in Dawn, October 25th, 2016

    http://www.dawn.com/news/1292132/india-has-capacity-to-produce-hundreds-of-new-nuclear-bombs
     
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  2. Inactive

    Inactive Guest

    @nair while I won't dignify the figures here with a comment, one can safely assume that this is quite an accurate figure although still off on facts as I mentioned earlier to @Joe Shearer
     
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  3. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Going thru the article one get a feel of deliberate attempt to show how dangerous Indian nuclear program is..... so I will take it with a pinch of salt....

    Our policy is clear "no first use" and a "devastating second strike"..... We have more nukes because of thiz as to spread out the nukes across the country to survive a first strike... all this is based on the assumption on how much weapon grade uranium can be produced on those reactors out side safe guarded ones... now have we made boMbs out of it or still holding... no one would ever know....

    I think India and Pakistan has fairly kept their secrets when it comes to mikes,western agencies have little or no clue about the actual number of boMbs we have...
     
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  4. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Guessing on numbers is useless.

    This is enough to be known that whatsoever we have,and plan to have , is / will be more than enough in keeping with our present / future needs.

    On the book, its just an attempt to show India's civilian nuclear ambitions as a bomb making one, undermining our power needs and trying to create false impression world wide.
     
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  5. Inactive

    Inactive Guest

    @nair @Ankit Kumar 001

    Exactly gentlemen. The figures are speculative. What is pertinent to note is that while accurately assessing the Indian Nuclear Program as being an old one, hence stocking and capability to weaponise is theoretically by and large accurate in trends, a subtle attempt has been made to indirectly justify the disproportionate weaponisation of Pakistani program to the international community.

    It is akin to someone trying to drag Japan in, with it's humongous fissile waste holding, and justifying the stand.

    The intent is the determinant here.
     
  6. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    The think tank talks about a figure between 356-492. Its in the right direction as a potential probable numbers if India does weaponize its fissile materials..
    BUT
    They are not the first one who said a similar remarkable number. This year beginning Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs published an article where it said few good points. It primarily focused on overlap between civilian and military facilities and wanted both to be explicitly separated. Even there it never uttered a number but gave a generic concern regarding the kind of fissile material that would be available for India due to is rapid expansion plan.
     
  7. Joe Shearer

    Joe Shearer VETERAN MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Could you reproduce that, please?
     
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  8. Inactive

    Inactive Guest


    Luckily for us, with the emphasis on moral high ground, India maintains the bare minimum dissuasive posturing required in the CBRN arena. This enables significant flexibility in diplomatic circles as also ensures that no additional costs are incurred in maintaining disproportionately large nuclear forces.
     
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  9. GuardianRED

    GuardianRED Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I'm more scared of 1 Nuke and who will pull the trigger MORE than the figure of 356-492. Atleast in someway, our state policy is OFFICIALLY 'NO FIRST USE' , unlike our friendly neighbour whose very second rhetoric includes using the Nuke!
     
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  10. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Give me sometime, I will make the points from the same.. it's in my disk.. will put it across once I am free from work
     
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  11. thesolar65

    thesolar65 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Nuclear weapons can be delivered by missiles, Aircraft, Subs. Now which one requires more cost in maintaining the missiles? Guess the Subs. But apart from it? And how much it requires to maintain the Silos? And one Silo site roughly contains how many missiles?

    @PARIKRAMA @Hellfire
     
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  12. NKVD

    NKVD 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    This Nothing New I already Posted it way back It Reported By SPRI Way Back

    EXCLUSIVE
    India Is Building a Top-Secret Nuclear City to Produce Thermonuclear Weapons, Experts Say



    Bush Administration Nuclear Policy Enabled India’s H-bomb Program :US Report

    http://fpif.org/bush-administration-nuclear-policy-enabled-indias-h-bomb-program/


    India may be embarking on a covert uranium enrichment project aimed at producing thermonuclear weapons, a number of sources have recently speculated.

    This week, Reuters reported that analysts at IHS Jane’s believe that the uranium enrichment facility at the Indian Rare Metals Plant is able to produce about twice as much weapons-grade uranium as New Delhi will need to fuel its nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines in the future.


    “Taking into account all the enriched uranium likely to be needed by the Indian nuclear submarine fleet, there is likely to be a significant excess,” said Matthew Clements, editor of IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review, according toReuters. “One potential use of this would be for the development of thermonuclear weapons.”

    This assessment has been seconded by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In arecent research brief, SIRPI noted, “A new unsafeguarded gas centrifuge facility appears to be under construction at the Rare Metals Plant near Mysore. India’s expanded centrifuge enrichment capacity has been motivated by plans to build new naval propulsion reactors, but the potential excess capacity could also signify its intent to move towards thermonuclear weapons by blending the current plutonium arsenal with uranium secondaries.”

    http://thediplomat.com/2014/06/is-india-building-thermonuclear-weapons/


    Experts worry that India is creating new fuel for an arsenal of H-bombs

    Source :
    https://www.publicintegrity.org/201...worry-india-creating-new-fuel-arsenal-h-bombs


    India's Nuclear Facility of H-Bomb Production Cited By Both SPRI and US Report


    [​IMG]

    Development Of the Mysore Facility Over Years
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Ok as promised with the main points as written in the article
    +++

    The paper focuses on Indian Military and unsafe-guarded projects and calls on them to be put under safeguarding scheme

    upload_2016-10-26_16-10-16.png

    Point 1

    upload_2016-10-26_16-11-7.png

    Point 2


    upload_2016-10-26_16-12-30.png

    Point 3
    upload_2016-10-26_16-14-0.png
    Point 4
    upload_2016-10-26_16-15-18.png

    Point 5
    upload_2016-10-26_16-16-15.png

    Point 6
    upload_2016-10-26_16-18-50.png

    Tables as Annexure
    upload_2016-10-26_16-19-29.png
    upload_2016-10-26_16-19-40.png

    upload_2016-10-26_16-22-27.png

    Source: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/thethreesoverlappingtreamsofindiasnuclearpowerprograms.pdf

    +++

    144 kgs means 29 additional devices with 5 kgs approx.. thats per year and before the new SMEF comes online


    In practice, bombs do not contain hundreds of tons of uranium or plutonium. Instead, typically (in a modern weapon) the core of a weapon contains only about 5 kilograms of plutonium, of which only 2 to 2.5 kilograms, representing 40 to 50 kilotons of energy, undergoes fission before the core blows itself apart.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design
     
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  14. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Unless one builds a Doomsday Device, which will blow the whole planet apart.
     
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  15. brahmos_ii

    brahmos_ii Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Get ready to laugh people. A country which is world famous for its nuclear proliferation is calling India names. We challenge you to read this and try to keep a straight face.

    India has sufficient material and the technical capacity to produce between 356 and 492 nuclear bombs, a research by a Pakistani think-tank has claimed. The study titled ‘Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program’ published by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) is co-authored by four nuclear scholars including Adeela Azam, Ahmed Khan, Mohammad Ali and Sameer Khan.

    “A groundbreaking research study reveals that India already has sufficient material and technical capacity to make 356 to 492 nuclear bombs. This work is in contrast to several earlier studies which took a much modest view of the Indian nuclear bomb making potential,” the ISSI said in a statement. It said that the purpose of the study was to provide an understanding of the true history, size, extent and capabilities of the different aspects of the complex Indian nuclear programme which New Delhi has kept outside the International Atomic Agency safeguards.

    According to the authors, the study contains evidence that India has the largest and oldest unsafeguarded nuclear programme in the developing world and among the states not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

    Former Chairman Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Ansar Pervez said the research breaks new ground by providing officials, researchers, scholars and students with new insight into India’s nuclear weapon making capacity.

    He said in terms of detail, depth, analysis and the use of information from primary sources, the research is far superior to several studies on the Indian nuclear program and carefully blends social science perspective with technical details.
     
    PARIKRAMA likes this.

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