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India looking at $8 Billion Deal for 100 Avenger Drones for IAF.

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Lion of Rajputana, Sep 22, 2017.

  1. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    $8 billion for UCAV's

    $12 billion for FICV ( BMP-3)

    $10-15-25 ?? Billion for single engine light fighters.

    Gdp growth shameful

    So who is going to foot the bill?

    This stuff will take 5-10 years

    In meantime IA should on focus on getting better assault rifles, IAF should focus on getting the mig29 and m2k upgrades done faster and IN should avoid blowing up more subs in habour.

    Next year defence budget will be barely a 6-7% increase and military modernization will just not happen like this.
     
    Blackjay, Hellfire and sunstersun like this.
  2. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Modi plans to spend over $250B in defence acquisitions by 2027. Total defence spending by then would be about $650B.
     
  3. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Plans about to be washed away when whatever GST is collected is returned in input tax credit
    Direct tax collection is still a joke (1.5% population files return)
    Now it is in news that 1.6% of GDP is collected in taxes in form of taxes on petroleum products

    This is very poor financial planning.

    Competing with China is impossible.

    Private sector investment has stopped.

    I wont be suprised if next year budget is less than this year budget and with pay hike coming for all govt employees including armed forces the capital budget of armed forces may actually "decline"

    Many acquisitions like more A-50 AWACS, FICV(BMP-3), More T-90 MBT, follow up rafale all will be delayed

    Now when reorders wont be happening most certainly "new" orders wont be placed

    IAF will have to cope with 25 squadrons now
     
  4. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Which world are you from? The number I gave is a modest estimate of just 8% growth for the defence budget.

    As for input tax credit:
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...st-rs-12000-croresays-government-2395333.html
     
  5. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    India will bomb Af-Pak with these drones in "Counter-terrorist operations".The deal will surely be signed,it isn't as ridiculous as the F-16 deal
     
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  6. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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  7. Vyom

    Vyom Captain GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    1.5-2.5 billion US$ should be the actual cost why are we paying few times as much ?
     
  8. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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  9. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Actually an interesting observation. Have no clue to be honest.

    @Anish The BMP/ICV program mentioned by you - maybe the trilateral joint production as envisaged under India-US-Israel JV ... look into that direction.
     
  10. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    The revenue expenditure is almost 95% of the present allocation to army as per ASEC. However, the capital expenditure is still being incurred. You will actually have to dig into how that is being managed.
     
  11. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    That's just the basic unit price. Since this will be our first set of purchases, the infrastructure and training costs will be high. Naturally, there will be a weapons package as well.

    Not to mention, we don't know the cost of spares for these birds yet. This link says the CPFH of a Reaper drone is $4762.
    http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/

    If we assume half that is the actual operations cost, then it will be $95M for 40,000 hours. So if we are paying for half the spares upfront, then we are probably paying $47M for half its life already. The Avenger could cost the same, if not a little bit higher. Maybe we are paying 1/3rd the cost, about $30M.

    There is also a very high possibility that, apart from all of the above, we are paying more because the system is unique and has no competitors. So we are likely paying premium price.

    So let's say $15M for the actual drone. Another $15M for weapons, infrastructure, maintenance, training etc. About $30M for spares. That takes you to $60M. The remaining are profits, $20M.
     
  12. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    2 points

    1. Salaries cannot be withheld.

    2. Operating expenditures in both peace and conflict areas are rising as with inflation.

    And our officer class is not going to stop using jawans as coolies, drivers for memsahib, show off bodyguards, abuse of canteen system, abuse of military vehicle for personal and family uses, whisky, whisky and more whisky.
    They deserve a lot of it of course but perhaps looking at nation's finances they can start a bit of austerity. Maybe from black label to red label ?
     
  13. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Just do a 8% compound growth on $40B for 10 years.

    If you simply do a 40B*10, you will get a total defence expenditure of $400B for 10 years. So even without any growth in defence budget, you will get $160B for capital purchases, 40% of defence budget.

    About 40% of this will go to the air force. So even from this small figure, without growth, we will get $64B for air force alone. If we assume 60% of that money is for fighter jets, we will get $38B.

    So out of 38B, we have already spent 9B on Rafales. Let's assume all 123 LCAs will cost 9B as well. So we still have 20B remaining for fighter jets.

    So we have room for 36 more Rafales at 4.5B. That leaves 15B for two MII programs and FGFA. Without growth. There is still the remaining 28B for other aircraft, including drones.

    Same figures with modest growth of 8%.
    IAF budget = $100B
    Fighter jets budget = $60B
    Rafale cost for 72 aircraft = $13.5
    LCA = $9B

    Remaining money for fighter aircraft = $37.5B
    Remaining money for other equipment = $40B
    Total remaining money = $77.5B
     
  14. Anish

    Anish Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Good analysis

    I thought you meant defence budget of the year 2027 will be $250 bn alone.

    Also out of 123 Tejas , 40 were ordered more than a decade ago so payment of some level must have gone already from IAF to HAL.

    Also in capital expenditures incase F-16 is selected a lot of expenditure will be inducted on AGM-series missiles and the AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles.
    If Gripen then existing ASRAAM and Meteor.

    Also IAF is spending a considerable amount on air base modernisation including "HAS" building. And all the underground work they keep doing
     
  15. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Most of the upward movement in cost will be because of the Mk1A. So the extra 80 to 100 Mk1A will compensate for the costs already paid.

    These will be part of the total package.

    Like the Rafale deal includes $850M in weapons.
     
    Lion of Rajputana likes this.

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