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Indian Elections :News and discussions

Discussion in 'National Politics' started by Nirvana, Feb 9, 2012.

  1. Bloom 17

    Bloom 17 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Corruption at lower levels is a state gov problem actually. What center can possibly do is being done
     
  2. GuardianRED

    GuardianRED Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Think corruption is to start wth us, if many of us stop giving brides just to get our work gone ...yes ... yes wishful thinking... but we need to start somewhere!
     
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  3. Scotlander

    Scotlander Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Three Mla's resigned from INC resigned tomorrow & Joined BJP. More Mla's going to join BJP today.

    Ahmed Patel might not be able to get sufficient votes to get reelected to Parliament. Hats off to Amit Shah.:artillery:
     
  4. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    So JDU is back in the NDA and now there are talks of AIADMK's two factions merging and joining the NDA. If this ends up happening it'd be an absolute coup, and this could be the political map of India in the very near future.

    Punjab would likely be the only state in Congress control (light blue). Kerala, Telangana, West Bengal and Orissa would be the last 4 states ruled by 3rd party opposition. Kerala and Telangana are marked pure yellow because BJP's presence there is minimal, Bengal and Orissa are marked yellow with saffron stripes because in Bengal, BJP will likely polarize the state and grow its profile to become principal opposition, and in Orissa, they are now beginning to turn up the heat on Naveen Patnaik after already establishing themselves as principal opposition.

    I'm not really accounting for Delhi since it's not a state anyways, but the way Kejriwal has been exposed in his term as CM, has faced rejection every time he's tried to grow outside of Delhi, is struggling with several charges of corruption against himself and his party, lost the MCD elections, and overall has gone completely quiet of late, I wouldn't be surprised if Delhi sees early elections and BJP takes it from AAP.

    I have preemptively given the BJP Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh as these results currently seem quite likely (although with Siddaramaih's recent maneuvers, we may yet see a surprise in Karnataka), and the remaining Northeast because the BJP seems determined to wheel and deal politically to come into power in every single NE state with Himanta Biswa Sarma practically functioning as the Amit Shah of the Northeast.

    Please excuse the sloppy "Paint" work lol.

    Future Political Map 4.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2017
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  5. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild Developers -IT and R&D

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    its a bit too optimistic I would say. WB is still a bit of a challenge as there is no local BJP leader and the anti hindutva brigade is high with power there.
    WB is almost a kerala actually in terms of BJP breaking into its political discourse.

    TN has a high chance of non BJP, non AIADMK force to emerge as well. TN mostly follows personality politics - A big TV/Film star to annouce his own party would be a king maker mostly.

    Karnataka is becoming congress' test bed for the nastiest divide and rule policies (separate flag, ban hindi) so that will take a bit of strategy (possible for BJP to win, but not easy and cannot be taken for granted).

    All in all, I would prefer a slow, gradual evolution and growth that will last a generation instead of a flash bang that can lead to cracks and fissures.
     
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  6. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    With the way the Left has been rooted out of Bengal by the TMC (they're actually ready to work with BJP to combat the TMC), and with the pressing issues of Islamization + illegal immigration and the resulting polarization, I don't see it as "being optimistic" that BJP will be the principal opposition, I see it as a foregone conclusion. Notice, I'm not saying that BJP will come to power there, but there is nobody else to fill the political vacuum of an opposition in Bengal.

    As far as TN is concerned, it's been suspected and alleged for some time that BJP has been covertly working with both factions of the AIADMK since Jayalalitha's death, and there are now greater and greater noises that we may see the AIADMK join the NDA in the first week of August (after which they could also get some positions in a reshuffle). And of course there is the long speculated entry of Rajnikanth into TN politics (the star/kingmaker you mentioned) where he would most likely work with BJP. So I think that is a reasonable assumption as well, now that Jayalalitha and Sasikala are gone, I think openly or covertly, AIADMK will for all practical purposes work with BJP, and we could see a triumvirate of Rajnikanth-BJP-AIADMK against DMK & Congress.

    I agree on Karnataka, that's why I was a bit hesitant whether to give BJP Karanataka or not, but I see it as a sort of political gamble due to Congress's difficult and desperate situation, and while this strategy may well yield favorable results, with a bit of deft positioning by BJP it could also spectacularly backfire on Congress. So we will have to wait and see.

    Overall, yes, slow, steady and organic growth is optimal, but nobody has that kind of time in politics. Right now BJP has lucked out with the Modi wave + Shah as party president + a scattered and terrible opposition that mainly relies on corrupt regional satraps since Congress is on its deathbed. That type of optimal moment where absolutely all the stars are aligned, comes around once in a lifetime, it's like that scene in Sholay, "Loha garam hai, maar do hathoda."

    Shah and Modi need to move quickly and ruthlessly to capitalize on all these countless "once in a lifetime" type opportunities.
     
  7. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild Developers -IT and R&D

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    this I agree with so fully! wish I could give a 100 likes.
     
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  8. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    TRS of Telangana is like BJD of Orissa ,Neutral or should i say opportunistic,this is the first time TRS is in power in a Newly formed state it is still establishing its grass roots,So it would stay neutral,but will give covert support to NDA as it needs the assistance of center in many issues and funds. Telangana has a very much strong presence, it is just the leaders of BJP in Telangana are lazy,infighting each other, they are just happy at retaining their seats, not bothered about expanding party footprint, In the Capital city of Telangana BJP has a major presence, its presence came to fore after Babri Mosque demolition and subsequent riots in city for months. TRS is not yet settled in, Congress is nowhere. BJP is poaching, ex -TDP and Congress leaders into its fold,might give results in 2019 election.As of now there is no Opposition to TRS in Telangana all parties are in disarray.If BJP could get a face who can aggressively expand in Telangana, they can get their chariot moving. Otherwise its just Kishan Reddy Who is just content with retaining his MLA seat since past 10 years.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2017
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  9. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    I stand corrected, presence was a bad word to use, influence might be better. From what I've seen, though TRS is said to be kind of corrupt, they're happy to give issue based covert support to NDA and due to their clever political positioning (I once read that they appease Muslims like many other parties but aren't openly hostile to Hindus like most of those parties), it makes it difficult for anyone to take over. Add the fact that Telangana is a new state and often in new states, parties that were involved with that state's creation benefit electorally, and I think Telangana is a big task for BJP, although from what you say, I would speculate that BJP's fortunes will likely improve there before they do in Kerala.

    On my point about TRS appeasing everyone though, I wonder if BJP and AIMIM might strike a secret understanding to polarize the state, with AIMIM pulling away Muslim votes and BJP pulling away a lot of Hindu votes? What do you think?
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  10. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    TRS is clever and corrupt too, The CM tries to do a balancing act,he gives sops to minorities appeasing them with reservations,easy money lending,support schemes.The for Hindus he does big Yajnas to bring rains, donates jewellery etc. to Temples like Tirupati .its quite clever, if anyone asks what you did for Hindus he would say we donated to temples etc. Thats not Hindus want,because All temples are under state govt. control and he is re-donating 10% of Money collected from temple donations. TRS has not yet settled, it is a good time for a party like BJP with National footprint to embed itself,if it can do it before TRS gets its grass roots stabilized,they stand a very good chance,once established it is hard to dislodge them.There is no opposition people want Opposition to check rampant corruption of TRS.
    TRS is just another dynastic congress party in disguise,the whole cabinet of TRS is from KCR family,KCR as CM,his Son IT Minister,Daughter another MP,Nephew another minister etc. Its a kitchen Cabinet and all major decisions of state are taken in KCR's dinner table by their family,this used to the case during Indira Gandhi's time so called 'Kitchen Cabinet'

    BJP should tie up with local parties like Lok Satta party headed by Dr.Jayaprakash Narayan, he and his party is the real Aam Admi party,non-corrupt,non controversial.
    Amit shah recently toured Telangana and warned BJP leaders to 'work or perish',but i don't see much visibility of BJP leaders on ground still. As i said BJP leaders are lazy,content to retaining their seats.
    There is one Raja Singh BJP MLA from Ghoshamahal constituency,which is prime spot of Owaisi's .He challenges the owaisi's in their own fort and wins comfortably,so you can see the overwhelming Hindu vote he enjoys,he organizes Shree ram Shobha Yatra and Hanuman Jayanthi yatra in city every year where 3-4 lakh Youth turn up in numbers to participate. BJP somewhat distances itself from him to look secular, as that guy speaks his mind.That kind of aggressive face can surely do a lot to Polarizing voters.


    Telangana ,especially Hyderabad celebrates Ganesh Chaturthi ,Navaratri,Hanuman Jayanti,Sree Ram Navami on a grand scale like Mumbai and Maharashtra even small kids participate in it and there are pandals of Devis and Devtas on every street during those celebration.So you can see how strong the untapped Hindu vote potential is.
    Lately, Even Andhra Pradesh has begun celebrating the above said festivals in grand scale,earlier it used to be a small private affair in temples or homes in AP, so slowly its spreading.The grand celebrations were first started by Lokamanya Tilak to unite Hindus against British and that tradition has carried on ever since.

     
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  11. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    This Rajya Sabha election is insane...
     
  12. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Imagine, today Ahmed Patel is bigger than the state of Gujrat and Congress for Sonia Gandhi.
     
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  13. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild Developers -IT and R&D

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    for the BJP - the hunger they are showing for each and every seat is just a refreshing view. instead of the lazy "we will anyways win" way of the old style congress. this is ruthless politics being paid back to congress.
     
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  14. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Sasikala & Dinakaran essentially booted out by Palaniswami's AIADMK faction. It's all slowly coming together in Tamil Nadu. Hopefully after the AIADMK faction merger, a merger with NDA is next.
     
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  15. Scotlander

    Scotlander Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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