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India’s Q1 GDP growth falls to 5.7%, hits 3-year low

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by Agent_47, Aug 31, 2017.

  1. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    The problem with demonetization is the govt did not advertise well enough, or made it way too simple by claiming a huge chunk of money won't come back and that became the be all and end all of demonetization.
     
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  2. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Need more of your economy predication & more detailed analysis if time permits :coffee:
     
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  3. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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  4. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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  5. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    And that is the point! The whole reason for the economy to go down was the global situation, not Indian economy and while the west and even most of Asia were suffering from negative growth, only China and India kept growing! 5% during a financial crisis was a big thing and even the years after that we kept growing, according to the current calculation to 6.9%! So the economy wasn't bad at all, it was the global situition that had gone crashing down.
    So when a new government comes in, in such a perfect situation of growing economy and crashing oil prices (that reduced government spending by far compared to UPA2 years), you expect things to get better and not go down to 5.7%.

    A slow down is within 1 or 2%, but Jaitley promised double digits just 2 years ago and now we are behind the level we had when they took over. That's not a slow down but a crash and reforms are still lacking, which is the big problem!
    Look at defence where the FDI increase didn't helped at all, because major policy changes were not implemented from the start. DPP16, SPM, or the recent army reforms, will all see positive or negative effects only in years and the same is the case for economic reforms. Make in India is marketing, not a reform, neither was the demonatisation aimed on improving the economy, so what economic reforms actually were implemented?



    And that's the point, they should be blamed for their own mistakes, inactions...
    They could have done so much better in economy and even more importantly in defence, but there is too much confusion on the need to take the necessary steps, also called indecisiveness. So just ignoring these mistakes, only because the former government was bad in other areas too, is not a valid justification. They need to be blamed for the scams, just as this government must be blamed for economic crash and the lack of defence capabilities for our forces.
     
  6. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    Blaming other religions only because you can't counter an article is not a sensible argument, but a fake excuse!
     
  7. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Why are you excited, it is a bad thing. Kept growing with borrowed money. Fiscal deficit and NPA burden is the result of it.

    Don't be that guy, whining don't help. Manmohan promised a corruption free government and Antony promised modernization.

    As i said slowdown is part of the reform process. When they delivered on reform you are impatiently making excuse to complain.

    How many major reforms was implemented 10 years before that ? Anything compared to bankruptcy code or GST? What antony did ? Yes make in india is marketing for foreign players. Result is visible with the highest ever FDI inflow.

    Don't cherry pick statements for your convenience.

    "Crash" ? Is this what crash looks to you? Is this the first time a quarterly number reached below 6% ? Its was even lower in 2012. Its a slowdown, don't get overenthusiastic !.
     
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  8. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    No it wasn't a bad thing under those circumstances, which you simply can't ignore! The means and the results (positive and negative), were necessary to not get Indian economy crashing down like most of the rest of the world. Brazil and S. Africa were also emerging markets, but were hit far worse during that time and still suffering today. We kept growing and now when the world economy is on track again, should benefit more as well.

    It's not whining when you point to the reality and not just give in to excuses. When an FM that made predictions, based on his own policies (not election promises), now has to admit things are going the opposite way, then we have a problem that we have to realise and change!
    The slow down was last year and we now are below 6% which is a crash from the rates even in 2015, let alone 13/14. If we don't acknowledge that now and take measures to fix the problem, it only gets worse. That's why finding excuses or justifications doesn't help.

    How many major reforms was implemented 10 years before that ? [/QUOTE]

    You said the slow down is because of reforms, so why do you now refer to the former government, when I ask about these reforms?
    If you relate the crash to reforms, you need to be able to state them and not point fingers.

    Boeing has re-invested around 14 billion dollars into the Indian industry, as part of their offset obligations over the last few years. That's he biggest ammount, that a single company invested in India and guess which DM made the deals for these offsets?
    Blame him for his mistakes, just as UPA or NDA as a whole for theirs, but within the proper context and not generalise that everything was bad then and everything is good now.
     
  9. NKVD

    NKVD Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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  10. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    This is the problem when you don't understand basics of 'Indian economy'. Its ridiculous to directly compare to Brazil and S. Africa. Out model is opposite that of China, Internal consumption driven. Indian economy could have never free fall because of an external shock back then, its as simple as that. Back then Manmohan said exactly this when panic spread. Even now, We are still not fully connected to global economy.

    Our 80 % manufacturing is done by MSME most still unregistered. Thats the prime reason its impossible to get a reasonably good employment data. This is also the reason for slowdown now. GST really shook MSME top to bottom. Many will be closed down as they are forced to go formal.

    So this crash happen every 4 years. 2008,2012 and now ? PM acknowledge there is slow down but asked the same questions.

    I asked where was the reform before. Whats wrong with that ? You are ok with 'crash' and high level corruption without reform but now you have problems?
     
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  11. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    These guys have gone mad trying to control inflation. They are fucking up the economy really bad. They need to let growth rise and inflation will come down automatically.
     
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  12. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    He just modified DPP according to committee recommendations made by NDA. This government did that too!, they made two committees and released a modified DPP . But this time the reform is multiple times hard to implement on ground. There is a long process to select SP then OEM.
     
  13. borg

    borg IDF NewBie

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    Inflation is more money chasing few goods. They are trying to make sure there is no money left so this "inflation" will be dead once and for all.
    Such a golden chance (low oil prices+ decisive majority for the ruling party)wasted. With the right policies they could have really transformed India in the true sense. Instead we got Note ban, beef ban and half baked GST.
     
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  14. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Pls understand that its the agenda of the deep state called Lutyens mafia of which jai-Italyji is a knight in shining armour. He will see to it that Modi and India are finished. The agenda of Raghuraman is still being implemented with full vigour.
     
  15. NKVD

    NKVD Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    How Didn't get your statement What does Half baked GST stand for
     

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