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India’s Q1 GDP growth falls to 5.7%, hits 3-year low

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by Agent_47, Aug 31, 2017.

  1. Bloom 17

    Bloom 17 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    When you are the money maker of the family your top most and the only priority is the family that depends on you. Ordinary citizens really don't care about the policies or future of the country or who's ruling it. Only a hand full of guys like us discuss pros and cons. For the time being the middle class is hell pissed at modi.

    He has literally bankrupted their way of life with no credible future that they can see. He increased the tax slabs on normal goods which increases their household expenses while still charging the same income tax and hefty state taxes on their income, took away their savings by forcing them to put in the banks and charge fees for moving their own income.

    My family business engages with common man more that any survey and trust me when I say ppl really started to dislike him since GST.
     
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  2. NKVD

    NKVD Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    IN India people always dislike ones who make them take hard pill

    Because he had audacity to take hard decision

    India people never get over there habit of

    " What's in it for me"?

    When say cess

    Please define the govt subsidies also which people enjoying

    While playing low taxes
    I'm not talking about salaried employee

    But MSME and retail shops and traders

    We all know how much they make and how much they pay

    We all know there pakka and kaccha bills

    You know they earn huge profits
    Look at the car sales in India

    GST reforms are passed unanimously by both houses

    BJP was smart to.play gamble on third year

    Congress made this push purposely they know it's remification and character of India masses

    u know People in India are like drug addicts who ever try to give them pill is considered to be public enemy number 1

    Now it's modi
     
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  3. Bloom 17

    Bloom 17 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Wow... you are a salaried employee aren't you. You just generalized an entire segment of tax payers as fraudulents. Try running an entrepreneurial livelihood in India following Indian tax code, you'll be on the road in the second quarter. Thoses MSMEs make up to 1% of the 1.5% of the taxpayers in the country. And yes go outside the virtual world every man is for himself, everyone thinks of wat is it for them. That's how u survive. The one who doesn't ends up unemployed.
     
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  4. NKVD

    NKVD Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Read my post wisely I keep out salaried employee's and they hardly 20% of country


    Retailers and traders make huge cut out of this

    You are saying like paying taxes is not your fundanental duty as a citizens but favour on govt

    All these MSME traders, retailers did they paying taxes what they should be to govt

    Go to any local retailer in your neighborhood he will always give you kaccha bill only when if you ask him
    And he will not happy while giving bill


    These guys are the real reason of black economy not salaried employee's

    It's a burden on genuine taxpayers like us

    GST made Making them pay what they should have genuinely to govt

    And that is what making them upset that they are bound to pay genuine returns like common people do
     
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  5. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Liked for this. Besides I am a salaried employee and I know the pain. We don't enjoy any subsidy and pay our taxes before we get the salary. So an Indian businessman doesn't survive because he don't pay the taxes but there is an general understanding that if I pay my taxes someone else will not and will throw me out in competition. So with GST all will have to pay taxes and in next few years. But forcing everything on the people have pissed almost everyone salaried on business.
     
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  6. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    True , traders if forced to pay GST they charge their customers

    Some are charging GST as an additional source to extract money from customer.

    In the end salaried people pay both direct and indirect tax.

    Business man to set up a business have grease so many palms , money extortionist and have to compete with other bullies and survive , if they pay GST , they won't get sufficient profit, or their competitiors don't pay tax and give discounts to customers..

    Whoever is genuine on both sides suffer.
     
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  7. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Many people are still charging GST when they are not going to pay any. Many small restaurant around my house started charging GST in their bills but I am more then sure they are not going to show this to Govt. thus making their own profit.
     
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  8. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    There is joke recently circulated , if you have food in AC restaurant , and at the bill counter , you ll get a feeling both centre and state ate food with you..:facepalm:
     
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  9. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Most of them are not charging 18% only 12%. If you go to a food chain then the story is different. There you might actually like it because now it is cheaper. As with GST calculation is simple and they can not fool you by adding extra service charges in bill as taxes.
     
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  10. InfoWarrior

    InfoWarrior Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Did the Prime Minister use the old GDP series along with the new GDP series? Where did his speech writer get the data from?

    By Vivek Kaul | Oct 6, 2017 comment
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    Prime Minister Narendra Modi briefly turned economist, in a speech, a couple of days ago, and in his charismatic and characteristic style told the country that there is no reason to worry, all is well.

    He further said that people who were critical of the current economic scenario were spreading pessimism because only after spreading pessimism could they sleep well at night.

    Modi offered us a whole host of economic data to show that India continues to do well. On economic growth slowing down to 5.7 per cent during April to June 2017, the Prime Minister had this to say: “Is it the first time that economic growth during a quarter has reached 5.7 per cent?

    He then went on to point out: “In six years of the previous government, eight times the economic growth rate had fallen to 5.7 per cent or lower.”

    By this logic, nothing that is happening now is a reason to worry because it has, more or less, already happened before. This seems like pretty convoluted logic. Also, it goes back to what the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does every time it is in some sort of a soup: blame the Congress.

    In this piece, I will stick to the economic growth point, having made a point-to-point rebuttal of Modi’s cherry-picking of data to build a positive economic narrative, elsewhere.

    Let’s look at Figure 1, which basically plots the quarterly (three-month period) gross domestic product (GDP) growth from June 2012 onwards.

    Figure 1

    [​IMG]

    Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

    What is plotted as June 2012 in Figure 1 is basically the economic growth (GDP growth) during April to June 2012 in comparison to April to June 2011. This is true for all other data points.

    The question is why have I taken economic growth from the period of three months ending June 2012 onwards? The answer lies in the fact that the new GDP series that the government started using from January 2015, has data starting from April to June 2011 onwards.

    Given this, economic growth can be calculated only from April to June 2012 onwards. It will become clear later in this piece as to why am I making this point.

    As is clear from Figure 1, economic growth has been falling from March 2016 onwards. The economic growth has fallen for the last six quarters. This is a real reason for worry. This is something that PM Modi forgot to mention in his big speech. This has never happened before if we were to just look at the new GDP series.

    As mentioned earlier, Modi pointed out in his speech: “In the six years of the previous government, eight times the economic growth rate had fallen to 5.7 per cent or lower.”

    As can be seen from Figure 1, economic growth has fallen below 5.7 per cent five times. Of this, economic growth fell below 5.7 per cent four times when Manmohan Singh was PM. It needs to be mentioned here that Manmohan Singh was the PM for 10 years, whereas Modi has been for three-and-a-half.

    So, how Prime Minister Modi ended up saying that during the previous government “eight times the economic growth rate had fallen to 5.7 per cent or lower”, is a question well worth asking.

    Did he use the old GDP series along with the new GDP series? Let’s merge the data from the two series (which is not the right way of going about things, but nonetheless) and see what we get.

    Basically, we use GDP growth from the old series between the period of three months ending June 2005 and the period of three months ending March 2012, and after that we use the new GDP series. Take a look at Figure 2.

    Figure 2

    [​IMG]

    Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

    Even after merging the two series, we get only five instances of growth falling below 5.7 per cent during the previous regime. This makes me wonder, where did Prime Minister Modi’s speech writer get the data from?

    Modi had also said in his speech: “The country’s economy has seen quarters when the economic growth rate has fallen to levels of 0.2 per cent, 1.5 per cent.”

    This hasn’t happened any time since June 2005 (again, we come to this conclusion only by wrongly merging the two GDP series, but Prime Minister Modi’s speech doesn’t leave us with any other option).

    While the new GDP series has been in use from January 2015 onwards, the government hasn’t come up with GDP data based on the series for the period before April to June 2011, up until now.

    The reason perhaps lies in the fact that the old GDP series under-declared growth to the extent of 2 per cent. Hence, any economic growth data from before April to June 2011 will basically end up showing the current slow rate of economic growth, in further bad light.

    Now let’s take a look at Figure 3.

    Figure 3

    [​IMG]

    Source: Author calculations on data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

    Figure 3 basically plots the growth of the non-government part of the economy, which typically constitutes 87 to 92 per cent of the economy. The growth of the non-government part of the economy has fallen to around a little over 4 per cent. This extremely important detail did not find a place anywhere in Prime Minister Modi’s speech.

    If the non-government part of the economy is growing at such a slow rate, how will jobs for the one million youth entering the workforce every month, ever be created. The situation becomes even more worrisome if we look at Figure 4.

    Figure 4

    [​IMG]

    Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

    As is clear from Figure 4, the growth rate of industry in general and manufacturing and construction in particular is at a five-year low. The manufacturing part of industry grew at 1.17 per cent during April to June 2017, whereas construction grew by 2 per cent during the same period.

    This is a big reason to worry simply because manufacturing and construction have the potential to create new jobs. An estimate made by Crisil Research suggests that in construction, 12 workers are typically required to create Rs 10 lakh worth of output. In case of manufacturing, it is seven workers.

    India’s economy has a problem. The sooner the government acknowledges and works towards it, the better it is going to be for all of us. But in this era of post-truth, it is more important for the government to keep spinning things than acknowledge the truth.
    https://www.newslaundry.com/2017/10/06/modi-government-bjp-economy-gdp
     
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  11. InfoWarrior

    InfoWarrior Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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  12. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    I believe you don't have to. Contsnd with the gst
     
  13. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Finally today, we have our FM doing wht I have been stating here all this while. relief to MSMEs and loosening of purse to help industry with lower rates.
     
  14. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Just a few post back in another thread you were telling me that this the way capitalism works

    When I pointed out attitude of govt and Pvt companies and how they screwed people by forcibly taking their lands

    So now when common people display this attitude why should it be a problem ?
    Consider it a normal behavior in capitalism no ?

    Sala tum karo to raasleela
    Hum karey to balatkar ?
     
  15. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Bhakton

    Iss anti national author ko Pakistan bhijwadee?
     
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