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India’s Q1 GDP growth falls to 5.7%, hits 3-year low

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by Agent_47, Aug 31, 2017.

  1. Gessler

    Gessler BANNED BANNED

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    Well put.

    You mean Coalgate. Or was there a scam I didn't know about involving the dental hygiene company? :tongue:

    ...and also too scared to face the consequences.

    When you enact any huge reform, it's inevitable to face difference of opinion from 'experts' in that field, and backlash from concerned parties who're not ready to accept the change. Both of which provide fodder for the opposition to attack the ruling side. NDA had the nerve to bring reforms, and then stood it's ground - ready to face any consequence and answer any question. UPA did not have half as much spine.
     
  2. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Lol yeah.

    Of course. UPA knew fully well but did not prepare for the loss of jobs in the economy, and then instead of opening up the economy and attracting investments, they let the cheap Chinese imports take over. They literally watched it happen. They are sell-outs.

    All the UPA has done till date is ride on the success of the first NDA and then they gave away some free food and created some jobs in villages. No labour reforms, no land reforms, no financial reforms, no economic reforms, no health reforms, no education reforms, literally nothing. They literally sat on their asses and thought up new ways to cheat the people. You need to be completely ignorant or not right in the head to believe the UPA has been good.

    There are a lot of foolish people around who think you can make changes immediately. They think all the problems we are facing today is because of Modi. They forget that even if you want a simple college degree you need to put in 3 years of effort to get it, but they think a PM has some magic wand that he waves around and gets work done. Too many Harry Potter idealists in India.

    And look at the biggest criticisms against Modi. Cows and beef. :lol:
    All the Modi govt did is clean up the beef industry by removing illegal abattoirs that were evading taxes and not following the rule of law, no different from what the govt has done in all other sectors, like removing shell companies, setting pharma companies in line, coal mining, defence, textiles etc.

    Yeah, they had to deal with some gau rakshaks who killed people, and we don't even know how many of those were deliberately done by non-NDA workers. Otoh, compare that to the systemic corruption and complete disregard to governance that has pervaded the UPA and destroyed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people every year for completely avoidable reasons, the reasons being good governance, corruption free bureaucracy and reforms.

    Fact: People are brainless. They can't see anything beyond what they cannot perceive within their own limitations while shutting out the voices of those who can. You dangle a carrot in front of their faces, it's all they can see. For all they know, they are being led off of a cliff, but they still don't care, they still continue to see the carrot floating in front of their face as they fall, all the while thinking that all is well until they actually hit the ground. Effing lemmings.
     
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  3. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    Nice try to find an excuse, but that's nonsense of course, because the government didn't just took a standardised calculation method, that would had been used by the UPA as well, but chose which criteria to use and which to leave out in the method, to get the results suitable for them. Not even the IMF had a clue, how the government came up with those figures.

    The issue was not that they revised the calculation method, but how they did it, because the GDP got inflated suddenly somehow and that was widely critized.

    Not to mention that we see similar paterns to use stats and figures to hide realities as well. Several different figures about taxes added through Demonitisation.
    Or in defence, when the government show the amount of DAC cleared procurements, while most of those were not signed.

    So no matter if you like it or not, the fact is, be it for GDP growth, black money recovery, or even improvement of defence procurement policy, the government is way behind the promises after 3 years. And when the UPA government had a 6.9% GDP rate in 13/14 according to the NDA calculation, it's pretty hard to deny the fact that the government is doing something wrong, when we are around the same rate now, under this global conditions.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
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  4. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    "Didn't just took a standardised calculation method"....hahaha. There is a prescribed way set in stone by IMF that is rigorously applied verbatim to every country that signed up for SNA 2008 using GVA method? There was such a one being followed by the factor cost method it replaced too?...i.e India's specific calculation matrix was set up precisely identical to some international approved cookie cutter? Or are they all general methodologies with specifics (esp based on data portfolio structure unique to each country) left to the country's premier statistical organisation to implement (thus providing the fundamental reason why IMF doesn't audit specifics but provides review, commentary and specific assistance)? i.e everyone uses cookie cutters (instead of using say something lot worse like a spoon for same job) but are free to arrange size and shape to what is most relevant to their economy dough?

    You do realise how different the IMF projections were compared to official India projections till SNA 08 was adopted by India (because one used GVA, the other factor cost)? Do you want to know the magnitude difference between the projections now compared to before? Why thats crucially important to Indian economy too investment wise?

    Further you are telling me in just a few short months, the complete CSO bureaucracy that was inherited from UPA was changed and the work done on the new series over literally years was thrown out?....on some feeling of yours? You do understand the majority of the design of the specifics were done by the CSO under the UPA? In fact UPA has little bearing on the way CSO conducted its affairs (there is such a thing as institutional independence) and same goes for the BJP. To imply or suggest BJP micromanaged within the CSO in just a few months to get some stacked result is quite silly...and thats your political bias speaking.

    "Not even the IMF had a clue"

    http://www.deccanchronicle.com/1505...india-gets-imf-help-back-casting-new-gdp-data

    "In a report on India published in March, IMF had said the country has improved the way it measures economic output and raised its growth forecast for India to 7.5 per cent for 2015-16, after taking into account the revised figures."

    Here's that report:

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar031115a

    From the summary:

    Growth forecasts higher

    India’s economic profile recently got a lift as the country improved the way it measures economic output. (The IMF staff report, however, was prepared before the release of these new growth numbers.) The revised national accounts series incorporates numerous conceptual and methodological improvements that make them more consistent with international best practices.

    The IMF will continue to examine the improved GDP methodology and its implications for its growth forecasts, and further details on the compilation methodology will enable a deeper understanding of India’s near-term and medium-term growth.


    ====

    But nope the IMF has "no clue". Wow they are totally lacking in credibility too to call something they have no clue about as "improved" and "more consistent with international best practices".

    It's all a big conspiracy concocted by evil BJP.
     
  5. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    http://indianexpress.com/article/bu...-week-to-solve-indias-gdp-growth-puzzle/lite/


    It's always funny to see self proclaimed experts making big posts, with hardly any useful content. Yes the IMF used THE REVISED data to make forcasts, but that has nothing to do with how the government came to the calculation method to get the data in the first place.
    And no it's not a conspiracy by the BJP, but it's neither the UPA nor the IMF that came up with questionable criteria, false promises for GDP growth and most importantly, they were not the once that created policies, that now effect the Indian growth in a negative way!

    So don't get these excuses and shift blame to hide the facts, but own the mistakes and try to make it better. Even Arun Jaitley (better late than never) admitted that the demonitisation had a negative effect and now we seem to see a negative effect from the GST as well. That doesn't mean that the GST wasn't necessary, but finding baseless excuses doesn't help the country.
     
  6. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    I am talking about the wild discrepancies in future projected size of Indian economy (between what Indian govt released and what IMF released) precisely because India used factor cost compared to GVA that IMF used.

    When a govt economy projection figure in even the mid term future is 100's of billions of dollars lower compared to the IMF one (and worse compounds and diverges even more over time)...that raises serious doubts as to credibility of said govt's method vis-a-vis IMF. That has a real impact on economy too...because those in the 50/50 threshold range (or worse) of doubt/confidence are scared away from commiting any future liquidity given these wildly different ranges. This was precisely the major reason the UPA commited to change to SNA 2008...it was a real no brainer.

    As for the specific calculation implementation, I am curious to see what you think how many of the "puzzle" generating ones (as though there were 0 puzzles in factor cost method inherently and 0 such puzzles worldwide when estimating GDP) were framed by CSO under UPA tenure compared to BJP tenure. 0%? 50%? 75?%? Give me a number. Let me see how much you know about which CSO policies and methodologies are decided early on (and would also take years to scrap and reverse by a new administration given the pyramid effect in data) and are thus assigned to UPA (by your logic that administrations grossly influence CSO). BJP had less than 6 months of tinker opportunity compared to 3+ years UPA had in grand pyramid structure building (they set up and largely filled all the major frameworks within it) in CSO (going by your claim administrations heavily intervene and micromanage CSO to that level).

    In fact, hypothetically, if BJP really wanted to change the result of the new CSO methodology in their favour, 6 months (remember new methodology was released in january 2015, and BJP took power in mid 2014) would be nowhere near enough time to do that....we would have seen BJP delay the long planned release by CSO and then implement policy of X parallel route checking/manipulation in all the major data analysis conduits to see which iteration and combination produces the highest difference between their administration growth and previous administration and go with that. I am not sure you realise just how much time that kind of effort would take nor how much institutional erosion flags it would have raised (and then have to address that each time so your attempt doesnt get sunk) in the process ...its certainly not in 6 months time.

    Not to mention the long terms costs to the economy itself of delaying a release that so much CSO manpower was put to over so much time and feedback loops creating all kinds of result magnitudes as you tinker (driving away myriad stable investors in the process). It would make the costs of demonetisation pale in comparison. But no they magically deflected all of this (time + cost)....and CSO just found a way to do it with no resistance on their end (against all momentum inherited since the years ago design+build process started) either.....and made gold for them (SNA 2008 BJP) in just 6 months from the straw inherited over many more years (SNA 2008 UPA). Good application of occam's razor for sure.
     
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  7. Abingdonboy

    Abingdonboy Major IDF NewBie

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    Posted elsewhere:

    As a supplier to a few of the large automobile factories in India. The growth for April-June 2017 quarter was bound to be less due to GST. Companies were postponing their orders to avail input tax credit which they previously were not getting on many items. Many such non-essential products (ie. not raw materials) orders were delayed and they have picked up post GST implementation in July.

    Mind you, as opposed to what the air-headed, out-of-touch & paid media reports suggest, demonetisation did not have any role to play in lower GDP growth figures for this quarter. It was mainly GST related strategic postponement of orders.

    My expectation is Q2 will see significant improvement in GDP numbers while Q3 & Q4 will see a take off. It is already visible in automobile sales.

    The political slaves of most the corrupt party might be very excited at the relatively low GDP growth without realising that these figures were the norm during their misrule & that too without bringing any significant disruptions. Just their sheer corrupt & ineptitutde ways.



    There has definetly been a concerted push recently by certain quarters to make hay whilst the sun is shining (in light of these damp GDP figures), only under Modi are quarterly GDP figures scrutinised to this degree. Simple logic stipulates that post November 2016 the fundamentals of the Indian economy have only improved and this will be reflected in the months/reports to come. There is a weird black magic going around where people are trying to conflate their political objections to the Govt reflect the way they view the economy sorry but this is a game where cold hard facts matter only. GST alone is going to act as a huge catalyst for the economy, a quarterly blip is just that.
     
  8. Sancho

    Sancho Lt. Colonel IDF NewBie

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    No you don't! You tried to justify the calculation method of the government by pointing to the IMF to give it credibility. That however is wrong as I showed, not only because of the used criterias, but also because the IMF didn't knew about the calculation method contrary to your claims (which you now strangely don't even mention anymore).
    So you were proven wrong twice and just try to shift the topic now, which makes your initial statement kind of ironic...

    :rolleyes2:
     
  9. Guynextdoor

    Guynextdoor Lt. Colonel SENIOR MEMBER

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    slowdown because of demonetization is ok. The offset due to crony capitalism is what is worrying.
     
  10. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    I skipped addressing that anymore because I already showed what IMF had to say about the new methodology from their own paper and website. Whereas you have nothing but recycled nonsense.

    Again you can't address the specifics of how much CSO work was done under the UPA versus BJP regarding this new methodology as implemented right now. Obviously you were not aware of the 6 month/3+ year ratio of work time to begin with...nor how that would skew even more (in % ownership by UPA) due to pyramid effect. Ouch.
     
  11. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    Wait what's this?:

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...rowth-raghuram-rajan/articleshow/60413706.cms

    On the new GDP series credibility, Rajan, a University of Chicago professor, said the method that has been adopted is better but there is a need to have time series that would reflect the exact changes.

    "When I was in Finance Ministry, I thought that they were underestimating GDP. So I used to believe we were actually growing faster and we were under-counting. When the new GDP number came, I had a sense of vindication," he said.

    =============

    Is he part of the BJP hoax too?
     
  12. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    See for yourself the economic stats when the NDA have been in power. They have had good ideas , but have made mess of everything, and when you talk about FDI, pls do a google search and you find several videos on how current MPs back then had vehemently opposed FDI. Even Canada as a developed country has GDP of 4% and we are at 5.7% with the revised statistical GDP formula. Unless and until the judiciary is toughened up, nothing can save this country. And again you have taken a dig at MMS. Either you are better than him or you are a loony like Jaitely .
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017
  13. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017
  14. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    The economic stats since the last 3 years has nothing to do with NDA, it has everything to do with UPA. The same reason why NDA gets credit for the performance of the economy from 2004-2009.

    NDA has been doing damage control and doing a really good job of it.

    The current slowdown is because of GST and is deliberate. The next 2 quarters will compensate for the losses of both demonetization and GST.

    MMS was a huge failure. Jaitley may be less educated and less accomplished than MMS, but he is more successful at the job. There is a huge difference between having knowledge and doing nothing about it and listening to good advice and implementing good policies. Jaitley has performed much better than MMS has.
     
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  15. Flyboy!

    Flyboy! Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Well at the end of it , it's your opinion and I respect it. We will wait and see if Modi has shot himself in the foot with demonetization. GST is a good step forward , and was the unanimous decision of all political parties. But demonetization is a complete debacle .
     

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