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Is a major terror attack/escalation from Pakistan imminent?

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by Bombensturm, Aug 11, 2017.

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Will Pakistan launch a terror attack on India?

  1. Yes

    64.3%
  2. No

    35.7%
  1. Bombensturm

    Bombensturm IDF NewBie

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    While going through the current Indo-Chinese escalation I noticed China is juggling on two fronts. One hand there is border tensions with India, while on the other there is trouble with North Korea issue. Only thing missing as a cherry on the top is probable naval escalations with Vietnam and Japan to compound the already poor situation.

    Extrapolating this case to Indian scenario from a Pakistani perspective , given that India is currently busy with China would it not make sense for Pakistan to exploit this situation for its objectives by brewing more trouble for India by
    1. Launching terror attacks in Kashmir.
    2. Terror attacks in other parts of India.
    3. Ceasefire violations on the border.

    In the current circumstances, a major escalation between Pakistan and India from a Chinese perspective would be welcome move and ROI for grooming Pakistan for this very purpose of keeping India strategically occupied.

    Or would Pakistanis prefer sanely not engage in new fronts when they are currently bogged down with domestic counter-insurgency operations and focus more on supporting Taliban in Afghanistan.

    @Levina @Hellfire @A_poster @MilSpec your opinions.
     
    Grevion and A_poster like this.
  2. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Any war/conflict, is fought on the basis of the diplomatic manoeuvring space/military flexibility as afforded. Does the present situation, by any stretch of imagination, indicate the necessary 'diplomatic space' or 'military flexibility' to China to go for a war? I do not think so. Contrary to the suggestions appearing in the Media, which at times have claimed that Indian 'soft power' is going to be exposed for hollowness in this affair as neither US nor any other nation has supported Indian position, one needs to understand the fact that the view is being seen as a stand off between India and China over the latter infringing upon the rights of a very smaller neighbour - Bhutan.

    The connotation of this can not be lost to the various South-East Asian nations, who have, in some or the other measure, been at the receiving end of dispute with China themselves. . Forget US, the South-East nations will find that additionally a nation is positioning itself as a net security provider in it's region and has been doing the same in South China Sea with it's naval forces traversing the waterways on and off at will, inspite of PLAN 'warnings' and 'chaffing'.

    One needs to understand the Chinese propensity to use treaties as transitory agreements meant to tide over the situation at the time and to be renegotiated with passage of time as the situation changes. This is a historically recorded fact. Hence, the narrative and goal posts in the Chinese diplomatic offensive is in perpetual dynamism. Taking note of this very fact, it is inherent to understand the relationship of China with it's neighbours, is a very transitory one.

    The biggest equation to undergo a change with passage of time for an assertive China is that with the Russian Federation. The fact that the stated aim of Chinese policy has been to 're-unite' Chinese lands and re-establish the pre-eminence of the 'Middle Kingdom' must never be forgotten. Chinese have historically claimed the Russian territory East of Chita (inclusive of large tracts of Siberia and the Russian Primorsky Krai, where the city of Vladivostok or Haishenwai as per the Chinese, is located) on basis of continued occupation under the successive Chinese Dynasties be it at the time of the Manchus, who conquered China after stamping out the last of the Ming successor states (Historical Background; Defeat of the Russians at the hands of the Qing and subsequent signing of the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689 wherein the Russians gave up the area North of Amur River upto Stanovoy Mountains and Treaty of Aigun in 1858, wherein the border was re-aligned upto River Amur) Jín Dynasty or the Qing Dynasty.

    Few maps to drive in the issue, can be discussed on a thread by itself later.


    1804 China.jpg


    China 1804: Note the frontiers as Marked

    Mao China 1804.jpg


    China 1900

    China Claims.jpeg

    Map depicting Chinese claims.


    interesting news items to collate with above:

    1. http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/why-is-russia-aiming-missiles-at-china/

    2. http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...s-russias-border-gain-respect-attack-america/

    3. https://www.rbth.com/international/2017/01/26/who-is-china-aiming-its-nuclear-missiles-at_689098

    4. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...s-super-mighty-preemptive-strike-will-reduce/


    @lca-fan collate the whole picture now

    @vstol jockey this is the reference he as probably speaking about the other day

    @Sweet-detention
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2017 at 9:00 AM
    Grevion, Bloom 17 and nair like this.
  3. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan is already applying its peak efforts for over a year now and has faced the worst kind of proactive offensive response from India. It is now kneeling down and is left with no more options.
     
    Angel Eyes likes this.
  4. Indian Jatt

    Indian Jatt Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Lol terrorism is dying a natural death, maybe the great USA and Russia are bored now, even Pakistan will get bored soon, they know what happens in their country when something happens in ours..... examples are pretty much intense when we do it, right now Pakistan is paying 100 times more than what it actually paid before India got into this game of proxy....
     

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