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Is India serious about Chabahar port?

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    A pertinent question really..

    For long we have pointed about the India Iran relations and how Chabhar port is so crucial for our Geo strategic outlook. But if we look at reality, nothing much has moved on that ...

    First was the inordinate dealt on the part of successive GOI to actually give approval for the port development and sanction a corpus..

    Then came a whole lot delay in understanding and implementing the logistical challenges..


    Now comes the news

    India’s ambitious plan to develop Chabahar port in Iran has hit yet another snag—over what is being seen as an inordinate delay on the part of Iran to seek a $150 million loan from India.

    Eight months have passed since the loan agreement was signed for the port’s development, but the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) is still awaiting completion of an application from the Port and Maritime Organization of Iran with instructions to disburse the amount. According to the agreement, the contract will be activated from the day that the loan has been disbursed.


    Source- www.livemint.com/Politics/lIhUckmnYMrTCBlBxPaDTO/Indias-Chabahar-port-plan-runs-into-Iran-loan-application-h.html%3Ffacet%3Damp%26utm_source%3Dgoogleamp%26utm_medium%3Dreferral%26utm_campaign%3Dgoogleamp


    So after all the previous hiccups latest is this..

    And on top port development and infrastructure + machinery tenders are to be "evaluated" for actual award of contract to companies to build the project.. and all within a time line of 10 years for which we signed a MOU last year..

    It brings to 4 important points

    1. So is this a big goof up on our part or are we suffering from IST (Indian Standard Time) fiasco..

    2. Were we really serious of Chabhar?

    3. India's geo political ambition is all talks only or is there some substance to it?

    4. Will India also follow a similar pattern of delay, neglect and finally IST fiasco in other strategic interests like say Seychelles / Mauritius?

    Requesting all readers to participate and give their views

    @Levina @Abingdonboy @nair @Agent_47 @MilSpec @Gessler @Robinhood Pandey @randomradio @vstol jockey @Hellfire @NS52 @BlackOpsIndia @Rain Man @Grevion @Nilgiri @GSLV Mk III @SrNair @dadeechi @Ankit Kumar 001 @kaku1 @Golden_Rule @IndiranChandiran @lca-fan @Lion of Rajputana @thesolar65 @Sathya @Butter Chicken @AbRaj @WhyCry @bharathp @Aqwoyk @GuardianRED @PeegooFeng41 @Indx TechStyle @Ved Mishra @ni8mare @A_poster @Itachi @drunken-monke @Kalmuahlaunda @zebra7 @Marqueur


    And all respected members.. want to hear your views..
     
    Bregs, The Lockean, Rain Man and 15 others like this.
  2. Aqwoyk

    Aqwoyk Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    1.) IST ? more like India banya Time ........................ yes you read it right and m not pakistani

    2.)

    [​IMG]

    3. ) same as above

    4.) yes
     
  3. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    I do not think it is the time or our chaltha hein attitude, atleast in this case, Some thing else is holding GOI......With the kind of engagement the current govt too, they know very well the importance of completing this project with in the time...... I feel they are not very sure about this project, and how they want to go proceed with it... especially with the current scenario in and around Afghanistan...... But i feel it is absolutely wrong to delay it or drop it, we need to have this port up and ready ASAP...... There will be political realignment around Afghanistan, but this port is one of the strong point for Delhi to have a say in the afghan mess..... Other wise we will be sitting on the banks and watching the biggies play their game....
     
  4. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Perhaps they are waiting for Trump's rhetoric against Iran to thaw out.

    Banks won't finance the project if the US slaps more sanctions.
     
  5. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    I would like to give one more year (this one) before I can make a strong comment on the issue.

    There is a certain "yuuuge" factor at work right now regarding Iran in geopolitics....that India will have to clarify at high levels on what paths are the most prudent.
     
  6. Aqwoyk

    Aqwoyk Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    do we not have the confidence of success of this project without US and some Nato countries ?
     
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  7. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Apart from that, I do not think that cost of Chabhar justify benefits we would derive from it. At some point we need to do cost-benefit analysis, lest we are pushed into bankrupcy.
     
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  8. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    This is exactly what is in GOI's mind. Since we are co-operating with US on several more important issues than this one like, NSG, China, UN security council seat, etc. and we need US help on these issues and with current US govt under Trump is again at loggerheads with Iran we would not like our investment go down the drain and irate US. So GOI is in wait and watch situation. Actually it was India that persuaded a truce between US and Iran under Obama which has been undone by Trump.

    It is true that Chabahar port is very important for India not only for its strategic importance of its location and transit to Afghan but also it is important to contain China which can also take on Chabahar port also, denying India any foothold in Middle East and transit routes to Central Asia through this port. India can also keep a watch on CPEC and any Chinese naval vessels through this port.

    Having said that, a lot is hanging with US too, so we will again have to work with Trump govt. to except a truce with Iran and only then we can expect India advancement and involvement in Chabahar. Until then finger crossed.
     
  9. Levina

    Levina Colonel on stilettos Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    India is specifically looking for announcements from the US Treasury targeting the Iranian port operator Aria Banader Iranian Co., which has partnered with Indian Ports Global Pvt. Ltd. to develop the Chabahar port.
    Iranian govt had upset India when they failed to mention the port was leased to the private firm at the signing of the MoU in 2015. It meant spending additional time on the due diligence and vetting of its new business partner in Chabahar.
    Now, if Aria Banader was found to have linkages with the IRGC(a company which is already blacklisted by US in 2011 ,and is deeply engaged in Iran’s key sectors )or other blacklisted individuals by Washington, it would be highly problematic for India.

    But the budget allocations prove India's interest in the port >>>
    https://thewire.in/105016/overall-d...ds-for-iranian-port-and-indian-ocean-nations/

    IMO, just wait and watch.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
  10. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    This dilema is normal when you keep leg in several boats......and all the boats are travelling in different directions.... Indian diplomatic stand is based on simple formula..... What is best for India...... In this strategy you are bound to interact and have diplomatic stands between two adversaries......That is what it is happening..... It has lot to do with Baloochistan also....
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 27, 2017
  11. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Will that mean we did NT do proper due diligence on our end?

    Should NT we ourselves knowing that small but vital information over waiting for Iran to disclose it?

    A very good point..

    But we're we not dealing with Iran before..?

    @Aqwoyk had rightly asked about confidence on the project without NATO and US support..

    Bcz the way it looks our Geo political strategies is subservient to US geo political interests and strategies.. if that's the case why we are even bothered being independent in terms of our alignment in foreign affairs..

    Unfortunately my friends, sailing in multiple boats seems to make us disoriented, direction less and most importantly we lose the value of time for the actionable..

    Governments come and go and all we hear is talk.. Chabhar was our go to point to access Afghanistan and also helps in Baluchistan.. and yet we are basically sitting idle for all three places.. be it Iran or Afghanistan or even Baluchistan..

    So that needs to be introspected if this strategy really working?

    True.. 1 more year will also mean 1.5-2 year gone in our MOU where we signed to develop the whole port and infrastructure in 10 year timeframe.. it will leave us less than 8 years and we have not yet awarded the tender for machinery as well (global tender -7 in nos for the machinery and develop ment).. that will mean a much higher risk of further delay ..

    Thanks to that.. the riskiness of the project increases and our neighborhood CPEC terminal gets more time to consolidate..

    Whose loss is that really?
    Solid points my friend..
    But it brings to the same question I was asking above to random, are we not subservient to US policies.. are we in a way outsourcing our interests to match their interests and sensibilities?
    Very good point.. the cost of development, the risk increase, delay in project being completed and loss of potential revenue.. all will make the project un attractive..

    So did we lose the economic side as well as geo political side..

    Was not Chabhar our lighthouse which gives us access to middle East, Central Asia and keeps an eye on CPEC..

    Did we doing all this losing a strategic military advantage as well?
     
  12. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    The problem is our inability to stand on our own feet. We expect every major power or friends to treat us like a newly wed wife......

    The reason why such policy is to be on good books of major powers and expect everyone's support on it..... By doing that we kind of forget to have our own policies.... This is how previous govt operated and current one also is in the same boat...... It is not about the govt but our policy makers or babus who formulate this..... We spend lot of time on pros and cons and i guess in this calculation long term goals get hit and we land in this confusion.....

    I think current delay is due to the regime change in US .... If that is the case then it point towards my first point in this post..... We should have our own policy rather than trying to align ourselves to other's policies....
     
  13. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    My guess, like many others, is that India is serious about this port (we have to be, its strategic importance and implications in the region cannot be overstated), but India must be waiting and watching to see what happens with Iran, the US and Trump.

    And I'm sure a little bit of the delay was also due to the typical inefficiency/sloth of Indian Gvt/bureaucracy when it comes to strategic matters.

    But in regards to one of the original four questions asked; whether all the talk about Chabahar and strategic ambitions is serious or pure bluff? I think of all the Governments India has ever had, this one is definitely the most dedicated to developing India's strategic influence and interests, and has shown a lot more foresight as well.
     
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  14. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    In that case, what is it that our babus lack ?
    Foresight?
    Courage?
    Our past history of appeasement?

    Or the consideration that united we stand divided we fall so foreign policy should be with 'others' .. is that the formula we are following?

    Iran is part of our oil basket.. we were hoping to invest in Iranian oil fields.. Tomo if Syria gov allows us some oil block again Chabahar will be a key to transport us that produced oil by Indian companies..

    On top we need an access point to Afghanistan and use this point as gateway to central Asia and middle east..

    Are our babus not seeing the significance?

    Or is it the courage of our political rulers which is the problem? Bcz we want to be pro US and feel that will help us against China and doing so, we are losing out Chabhar...

    Did our policy makers forgot how close is Chabahar to CPEC? A significance of a listening post, a possible satellite relay center, a small fleet too and fro and merchant vessel passage enabling us a much tighter vigilance over the militarily sensitive region?

    Or are waiting for some Chinese company to come and develop ports like in BD and Sri Lanka in Chabahar too?
     
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  15. IndiranChandiran

    IndiranChandiran Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Thanks for the tag@PARIKRAMA

    However, I haven't received any notification .While on the same subject , I keep getting notifications on my mail inbox , inspite of updating settings not to send me such mails .I have to do it each time my post features in a thread .

    While in your case I never received any alerts for your tags .

    Hope you can look into this .

    Coming back to the topic , shall post a detailed answer later.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
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