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Is India serious about Chabahar port?

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Another point i want to make is, Too much of "Doval"..... Which is not good..... Last time when PM visited UK he was sitting next to him instead of Sushama...... Wonder why??? If this was to afghanistan or pakistan then it is fine to have him...... But this suggests the fact that he has too much of say in indian foreign policy....
     
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  2. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    See the reasons for not completing this port could be 2 (in my view)

    1) Fear or back lash from US in case the relationship get worse between them.... With trump coming in even god has no clue what could happen
    2) Not sure about Baloochistan policy...... Let us not forget the baloochistan conflict has iranin interests involved, and A Open support to Baloochistan could get us in trouble with Iran...... This could be another factor which is forcing GoI to drag their feet......

    Another interesting party is "Israel".....
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
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  3. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Bro...I didn't understand your reference.
    Who exactly do you refer to when you say 'babus'...!?
    Do you mean appointed officials like secretaries and commission/committee members, advisors...!?

    In that case .... aren't they appointed by the government and the respective ministry themselves.....!?

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Anyway.... Coming back to the topic...

    An independent foreign policy is something which only a handful nations can afford...it needs Political ball$, ambitions, steadfastness and unwavering and absolute resolve and patience......That is something that has to be embedded in the mentality of the Political class for years...Not something that can be accomplished in a single change of administration....

    Also having an independent foreign policy carries lot of repercussions, limitations, weigh of responsibility among other things...

    Can we have a ground breaking and completely independent foreign policy...Yes of course we can...But I don't think our current administration as a whole has such a vision and ambition.... Especially in a time when we need foreign investment....All that comes from major powers like China and US....

    Anyway...This is just my understanding.... Brother.

    :)
     
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  4. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    OK another USA point.. another trump POV.. another uncertainty..

    But that also implies we have subservient foreign policy not independent..

    Regarding Baluchistan, don't you think we might have talked with Iranian side.. @nair


    Yes over emphasis on Doval for all dealings of foreign policy can be a road block.. not everyplace we need our NSA dictating terms..

    Israel angle, well I am sure Israel would love to have information sharing via chabahar port and may even give us systems to put top notch surveillance.. it allows them control over Iran and Pakistan both with data from frontline..

    Also Israel being Israel will additionally get benefitted by new military contracts for safeguarding the Indian assets..

    ++
    Excellent point brother...

    You actually pointed that it's politicians and political will..

    In that case the other points in Post1 will also mean that we will lose our strategic advantage right frim Chabahar to Mauritius to Seychelles..

    So extrapolating it further, how can We be custodian of Indian Ocean at all?

    It's clearly that IOR is also under US fleet command and we are acting like their lackeys.. so there goes up in smoke all our talk of independent foreign policy..

    This also makes me wonder if the present PM NaMo is also following earlier suit of all big talk, PR and no actual movement in the ground to change the reality...

    I though the chest thumping mention of Baluchistan would have meant PM Modi and NSA Doval would have expedited this port connection to reach Afghanistan and Baluchistan as well..

    But then....
     
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  5. Levina

    Levina Colonel on stilettos Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Actually Indian delegates were in for a surprise when Iran announced that it has leased the port to a pvt company. This delayed things further as all clearances from government/Cabinet had to be re-initiated.
    You cant blame India for it.
    All this while, during three rounds of negotiations and two deadline extensions(i think), Iran kept changing terms and conditions for the port, and India is now seeking a better deal after initially giving in, so that we too have a better control over the port.
    There are more issues like
    • Iran has failed to provide the Indian company with basic infrastructure like office space to start basic operations.
    • Custom duty waiver on the equipment India plans to install in Iran.
    • Iran has demanded a change in equipment specifications which has escalated the costs. India will now have to rethink on a lot of things.
    • Iran doesnt agree to India using Chabahar for exporting food grains to Afghanistan or for humanitarian aid.
    • Interestingly, India will be charged if there's any delay while Iran protects its pvt company from any such terms.

    Iran should stop playing the blame game. But then again India must give in to some terms, so as to get the port started...or China might just grab it.
     
  6. IndiranChandiran

    IndiranChandiran Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Quite frankly , in the absence of any "juice" on this story , the only conclusion that can be drawn is our own inert response courtesy an even more inert bureaucracy .

    The Iranians both in Iran & their embassy out here have been issuing reminders , warnings too since late 2015 when the Chah bahar project was revived post the P-5 +Germany and Iran N deal .

    As usual , things have drifted since.The Iranians aren't entirely blameless too . One of the reasons they've been pushing us to put our money where our mouth is , was the latent fear that the peace which they sought & got bringing some normalcy and respite from the sanctions were too fragile for their liking & that Murphy's law would set in sooner rather than later .

    Hence their bid to tie up as many influential fence sitters as they could , so that when the chips were down , these nations would move to protect their interests thwarting any harsh measures by the US .This could have been anticipated by South Block who instead of speeding up matters as the Iranians demanded merely put it through routine bureaucratic channels where they knew the proposals would gather dust , thus buying them time .

    The reason why I find objections to such behaviour is South Block seems to be hedging leading the Iranians to believe the Indians can't be trusted . We could have been more generous & gone ahead with initial investments & incorporation of such companies as is needed to execute such a JV.

    An investment of 250 USD - 500 USD for a nation which aspires to play a regional role , even if it means sinking our money is par for the course.

    In the emerging fluid geo political scenario we need the Iranians on our end or at least to be neutral .

    Meanwhile , Trump's election has thrown a fresh spanner in the works .Unless some clarity emerges , this is a project in deep freeze at present .
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
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  7. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Superb pointers..

    So basic infra not provided, tech specs changed, and then Iran arm twisting us as well.. we are also not doing say "smart" negotiations to protect our own interests and cost.. and Iran uses protectionist policies.. it in a way vetoes down our humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan even food grains..

    So then what benefits we derive from it?

    A good post above talked about cost benefit analysis being a challenge.. so is that the stark reality?

    Also let's say a Chinese company agrees to say such demands and we know Iran has good relations with China too.. so will CPEC and Chabahar , both starting with 'C' become 'C'hina's ports ?

    What alternative we have other than Chabahar which gives us a proper strategic depth?
     
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  8. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Solid points .. if I may indulge you a bit more

    Do you see any scope to salvage Chabahar? If yes what could be the means?

    Do you foresee a similar fate for strategic projects in Mauritius and Seychelles as well?

    Also do you believe we can rightfully be the custodian of IOR?
     
  9. IndiranChandiran

    IndiranChandiran Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I'm not sure all this was unforseen .After all the top leadership of Iran & IRGC are pretty active in the black market set up & thriving in sanctions era Iran .That they have vested interests & a cut in every business deal is common knowledge .

    Why then were our mandarins in the South Block surprised by such actions ? Unless their advice to other Indian ministries involved in the project went unheeded .
     
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  10. Levina

    Levina Colonel on stilettos Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    There's some hope Pari.

    I do not want to believe everything that comes in the print media. Very recently Pak media reported that Gwadar and Chabahar were to be linked and both the ports were to act like SISTER ports. That was shocking.
    But this tweet flummoxes me>>>



    This points to Iran's loyalty to India, ostensibly Iran is in no mood to let Chabahar be used as Gwadar's sister port .
    If India-Iran have really sat and worked on the issues, then prolly all this speculation means nothing at all. :)
     
  11. Levina

    Levina Colonel on stilettos Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    All this hullabaloo can be just a media hype to mislead ppl or our neighbors. Lol
     
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  12. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Now that's a good public posturing to state that india Iran just needs to sit through and things might get sorted amicably..

    Supposing this is also a charade.. by our neighbours to throw us off track..

    And we play into their hands then?

    As Indiaran pointed out, it was in public domain how Iranians were negotiating in open market.. so we did NT consider those risks and possibilities..

    It also points to the "sister port" point... What if Sartaz Aziz tweet was in the behest of China who is playing a different game and showing in public different cards.. a case of bluff by Pakistan...
     
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  13. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    It is not about what we talk.... It is about conflict of interest..... Iran can never agree on Indian support to Baluchistan......
     
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  14. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Did you guys realised something????? There is hardly any diplomatic activity reported in last few months....... Modiji tired??? Or he realised it is better to do it quietly?
     
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  15. Levina

    Levina Colonel on stilettos Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Cant say if we are walking into a trap because the budget allocation has now increased from 100 crores to 150 crores for Chabahar. So I'm positive that behind closed doors Iran and India are working in tandem to get things done asap.
    Lets not forget Japan and S.Korea too have their interests in Chabahar.
    Nope we are not letting a monkey called China snatch it from us.
     
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