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Is India serious about Chabahar port?

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    I have serious reservation there.. you know we have always allocated money.. even in Def budget only to under utilise it and return it back..

    So even though 100 to 150 Crs shows intention , it's meaningless unless backed by concrete ground actions..

    Sarcastically modi ji is busy touring election states.. and giving speeches.. and thus all the important foreign policy tours and travels is "frozen"

    Is not that the floor test for our NSA Doval to "guide" us through along with Sushma Swaraj to come out victorious and get what we want without conceding way too much?
     
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  2. drunken-monke

    drunken-monke SENIOR MEMBER

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    It is difficult to manage a wife with ever changing mood and demands!! (no offence to ladies here)

    The change in US government may have a significant impact on policy prism of USA by which it sees Iran..

    Off-course India is worried, how Trump administration would react to the India investments at Chabahar port. To be honest, India has bigger issues to give its attention at present than this Port. You may add state elections to it as well. But having said that, it was evident that this port was a counter to Gwader. GoI would be evaluating the current progress of CPEC and other related projects. If they do have resorted to other means to deter CPEC which would be cheaper than Chabahar with immediate effect, they may resort to that. But then Chabahar would offer us economic benefits as well. If I remember correctly, one of the major reason (told publicly) for investment at Iran was to manufacture chemical fertilisers there, which I believe is sufficient (when mfg domestically) during this FY. Add to this ever changing requirement of Iran over the port building.

    I believe the leasing of port to a private Iranian firm must have been already known to Indian authorities since our agencies are not that incompetent. So it may be just a eye wash.

    Lets see what unfolds in coming financial years.

    My two cents..
     
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  3. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    The point is foreign policy is to be decided by a diplomat, not by a security expert...... His opinion can be taken and considered, but not allowed to be decision maker.... It is like consulting a surgeon for an illness..... He will naturally direct you to a surgery, which may not be needed.....
     
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  4. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Both.

    When we extol virtues of access to CAR, what we ignore is that the region is an economic and geo-political lightweight. It is an economic basket case with Oil and Uranium being its only viable export, and population base so low that it could not have consumption based economy. On top of it, we would always be outbidded for crude oil in that region, by China. On geo-political side, it border Russia and China, and we have very little chance of gaining a foothold in that region. Even USA ,with access to CAR via Georgia-Azerbaijan and Pakistan-Afghanistan route, has very little pull in that region.

    In light of these two facts, I opine that we should be pretty conservative in throwing around capital on projects like Chabhar. A couple of billions are okay, but anything more than that need serious cost-benefit analysis, as gains from CAR are minimal and Iran is not a trustworthy partner ,irrespective of what US does. I had written some posts on how gargantuan waste CPEC would be, and most of them apply on Chabhar too.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
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  5. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Why do we assume that US will oppose this move???? Infact US is getting an alternate route to Afghanistan......
     
  6. Vyom

    Vyom Captain GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    The cause and effect analysis is at best pedestrian in nature. Have you guys kept a meticulous record of all MEA briefings post such meetings? And what is the role of MEA in PM's foreign visits ? The MEA encompasses execution of security pacts, economy pacts, L&O pacts as well as any treaties and agreements that may be signed between the two Government's respective ministries as the Name suggests, MEA is the custodian of execution and operation of such pacts.
    Analogy : like the ISP that Connects you to the internet.

    We have signed Cyber Security, Defense and Infra pacts with a lot of countries, Foreign affairs has to coordinate all of them. NSA's role is at the Prime Minister's discretion, and any foreign agreement has a security perspective, so either you are building roads or providing easy capital to build infra or buy products and services, all of them have national security implications by default, so His presence is not detrimental to any deals. Iran is not an ally it a nation with which we have good and friendly relation (Not hostile). A too much strong Iran is a threat to Israel who is an ally and friend. Our deals should be calibrated to serve our national and security interest at the same time not threaten of those of our allies. (Taliban is also being funded by Iran in Afghanistan today, that is direct security threat to us and our people involved in Afghanistan's reconstruction) Such a scenario Mandates the presence of an Security expert at hand. We live in difficult times, our security is paramount.

    By the way the port will be operational for our needs in Afghanistan, by March end and by Nov the railway line too, if Iran wants to expand the port facilities it has to present a viable economic model. We cant waste money like China. Our requirement from Chahbahar has been met.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
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  7. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild Developers -IT and R&D

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    I think there is are a few aspects that we are missing:
    1) As in Afghanistan, India is going slow and steady with an organic buildup of capacity. unlike china - which has deep pockets and can afford to have losses for sometime - we need to be in the profit from the word go and hence the evaluation of each and every aspect before beefing up the capacity building is necessary.
    2) Unlike CPEC where its all about Chinese dumping goods into Pak and the port just being a conduit for Chinese goods, Chahbahar is supposed to be a give and take relationship. as such both sides - despite being friends - will try to out maneuver each other to make the most of the situation. Playing a waiting game is a tactic during such negotiations.
     
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  8. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    While I agree with you on the above points, you need to read my post along with my previous ones..... The question i raised was, i did not see the involvment of EA Minister's role during the visit, or her presence......

    I have no disagreement here too... But the point i made is, too much of Doval in foreign affairs....He was sitting next to PM on his UK visits, wonder what kind of security engagement was happening there..... So was giving you an example.... It is perfectly alrite to have him next to you when you meet NS......

    This is what i said in my first post, we have our legs in several such boats which is moving in opposite direction....... KSA-UAE/Iran/Israel...... Israel/Palestine....
     
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  9. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild Developers -IT and R&D

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    thats the true non-alignment stance going on. I am actually happy with that. the sad part is, we are in a unique position to do business with most of the world - except our two neighbors
     
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  10. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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    I dont think this is due to the Babus effect .I would say this because current GoI has a clear command structure .
    Even though the implementation was a disaster the demonetisation and the way PM handled clarifies all our doubt .
    So I think the fundamental problem is the security situation in Afghanistan .
    Honestly say that nation is begin to going on hay wire .
    Now noone can ensures the future of that nation .
    Investing in the port without any foresight will messes up our investment .
    And for a certain extent Trump's unpredictable policy is also a problem
     
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  11. MilSpec

    MilSpec Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Thats one area which has been disappointing for me with the current dispensation. There first priority is always state elections, everything else comes later. Chabahar, is quit important for India, and we should have already had two berths there.

    OR
    Maybe there is more to this saga than in the public domain. All we can do is wait and watch.
     
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  12. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Through !?
     
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  13. nair

    nair Die hard Romeo Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    I used to believe so.... But recent events or progress doesnt suggest otherwise....

    Let us not get there.... I was one of those who supported this effort.... But then we all know it was a baloon in the end.... and let us not take this further as this will deviate from the topic in hand...

    This was the situation for a very long time..... and there is not much change either..... So that is not the case....

    This could be one of the reasons....
     
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  14. thesolar65

    thesolar65 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    @PARIKRAMA

    Thanks for the tag. Actually I am being educated in these type of threads. What can I comment on my own, but after reading all the three pages, I agree with @lca-fan 's post no. 8. India may be waiting for US decision on Iran to be stabilised. Once it is done, I guess through Putin with whom Trump has good relation....then only the speed will pick up.
     
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  15. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Command means one command :D
    Topic is still same .I was talking about his handling entire RBI establishment .

    Nope .Situation was comparatively better during NATO full fledged presence but the day when they begin withdrawn and handing over the security ANA ,things began to fall apart.Now Taliban is clearly winning.And another civil war is looming in their horizon .As usual our side would be northern alliance .We need to increase intel presence in there .
     
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