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Largest Emerging Economies, E7+SA, growth prospects and challenges

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by sunny_10, Jul 8, 2012.

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  1. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    I would like to start a thread to discuss the largest emerging economies, E7+South Africa, the challenges they are facing right now and recommendations for them to achieve faster growth in future.

     
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  2. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Ranking by overall health of economies: (my personal ranking)

    1. China
    2. Russia
    3. India
    4. Brazil
    5. Turkey
    6. Indonesia
    7. South Africa
    8. Mexico
     
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  3. kaku

    kaku BANNED BANNED

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    I think India should be at last.
     
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  4. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Last edited: Jul 8, 2012
  5. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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  6. kaku

    kaku BANNED BANNED

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    Actually India's most of the debt is internal unlike the most of countries.
     
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  7. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    .
    Budget Deficit

     
  8. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    here, why can't the country like India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia of E7+SA members can have AA ranking like China of E7 itself? why rest of E7+SA are ranked BBB by almost by all the credit agencies and are 'Blue' while the China is 'Green' with AA, similar to developed countries? :hitwall:

    [​IMG]

    List of countries by credit rating - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    its true that spending on infrastructure is the main problem why we are in blue. then here, why can't India and other major E7+SA countries have spending on infrastructure by 10% like China? :hitwall:

     
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  9. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Emerging Markets Are Going To Spend A Massive $6 Trillion On Infrastructure In The Next Three Years

    Each week, more than one million people are either born in or migrate to cities around the world.

    Much of this rapid urbanization comes from the emerging world, putting tremendous pressure on that country’s feeble infrastructure.

    Pipes burst, roads are jammed, the water is tainted and the lights even go out.

    Merrill Lynch estimates that $6 trillion will need to be spent by selected emerging market countries over the next three years to meet the basic needs of these citizens. Water, transportation and energy investments will consume the bulk of these funds, accounting for 82 percent of total projected spending. Nearly every emerging market country Merrill researched will make an investment in all three.

    While each developing country could benefit from an upgrade, needs vary. This table details how different emerging market countries stand up against each other in terms of quality for the country’s roads, rails, ports, etc. We’ve highlighted the specific areas where the countries rank in the bottom half among the 133 surveyed by the World Bank.

    [​IMG]

    You can see that Brazil has the worst overall ranking among the countries listed. Though the country is a large exporter, the extremely poor condition of the country’s roads and rails has hampered the growth of internal textile and farming industries. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel for the country, as the government already has a plan in place to improve these conditions (Read: Brazil’s Infrastructure Plays Catch Up).

    India’s infrastructure also rates poorly, and is slowing the country’s ascent to top of the world’s economies (Read: India’s Achilles Heel). One of India’s key issues is electricity. Merrill says that nearly 40 percent of Indian households do not have access to electricity, the worst of any major developing economy.

    Power is also a problem in South Africa where a major power plant has not been built in 20 years and blackouts/power outages have hurt the country’s mining industry in recent years. Merrill projects $54 billion will need to be spent on the country’s power system over the next three years, accounting for nearly half total infrastructure spending.

    China, which accounts for more than half of that $6 trillion estimate, ranks far above emerging peers in terms of infrastructure at the 65th percentile. Merrill says that one of China’s biggest needs is in water and environmental development. The firm estimates that the Asian country will need to build roughly 40,000 reservoirs at Rmb 12.5 million a piece to create an internal water distribution system and alleviate pressure when regions experience extended droughts such as what China is seeing presently.

    The needs of a growing global population set to reach 7 billion later this year and investment needed to supply these people with sufficient water, roads, housing and power is why we identified infrastructure as a megatrend in 2007 and made it the key investment theme of the Global MegaTrends Fund (MEGAX).

    Although some infrastructure investments, such as those in Russia, have seen delays as fiscal dollars have been diverted during the financial crisis, we continue to believe in the long-term viability of the story.

    Emerging Markets Are Going To Spend A Massive $6 Trillion On Infrastructure In The Next Three Years - Business Insider
     
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  10. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    if we compare the overall infrastructure of E7 countries with developed nations as above, we find China having a clear lead with rest of E7 countries. above 95 percentile is considered for the developed nations and around 50% is 'alright' for the emerging economies of E7s but with 65 percentile overall infrastructure status, China is moving fast towards the developed nations. and also, more than half of the expected $6tn investments in infrastructure for next 3 years would occur in China so we would expect China at around 80% after next 4-5 years?:what: in fact, India is also catching up but they need to raise infrastructure spending to 10% of GDP, at least :agree:
     
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  11. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    also, we have news as below which say if we include ‘undocumented’ part of GDP also, GDP of India on PPP would be around 62% higher than the current way of measuring GDP of India. We have GDP on PPP of India in 2005 as below:

    from here, GDP on PPP of India by new method was measured as $4.5tn in 2011 so by the old method including undocumented part of GDP also, we find GDP on PPP of India would be around $7.2tn by 2011. (The difference of GDP on PPP for the developed nations were found just 2% to 5% by old method, I remember.) and again it is estimated that total number of middle class of India is 350mil with the per capita income similar to the Very High HDI countries like Argentina, Poland, Malaysia etc above $15,000 per head. This way share of Indian middle class in Indian GDP comes around $5.2tn in total of $7.2tn, leaving around $2.0tn for rest of 800mil people with per capita income of around $2,500 per head on PPP for rest of the 800mil poor people, which is similar to the countries like Bangladesh and close to Pakistan also :what:.

    And also we know that total population of India at the time of freedom, in 1947, was around 341mil but they now have 350mil middle class with Very High HDI countries like Argentina, Poland, Malaysia :agree:. But as India still has around 800mil poor people with full of disease also then the blame goes to those who let the population of India increased? :meeting:
     
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  12. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    World Competitiveness Yearbook 2012:

    [​IMG]

    The most competitive nations in Europe are Switzerland (3), Sweden (5) and Germany (9), which have export-oriented manufacturing and fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, Ireland (20), Iceland (26) and Italy (40) look better equipped to bounce back than Spain (39), Portugal (41) and Greece (58), which continue to scare investors.

    Emerging economies are not yet immune to turmoil elsewhere. China (23), India (35) and Brazil (46) have all slipped in the rankings, Russia (18) climbed only one place. All Asian economies have declined apart from Hong Kong (1), Malaysia (14) and Korea (22). Latin America also had a tough year, with every nation falling except Mexico (37).

    World Competitiveness Yearbook 2012: Hong Kong, US and Switzerland most competitive of 59 nations; Ireland rises to 20th ranking
     
  13. sunny_10

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    78 skyscrapers approved in mumbai in one day

    Mumbai: On Saturday, High-rise Committee chairman Shafi Parkar and BMC commissioner Sitaram Kunte approved development proposals for 78 skyscrapers " buildings above the height of 70 metres. Saying that Mumbai has only 30 buildings of 100 metres height or more, while Shanghai has 200 and New York close to 500, Mr Kunte made a case for buildings to get taller to circumvent the city's lack of space.

    The High-rise Committee's approval for 78 skyscrapers (higher than 70 metres) in the near future, along with the support of the BMC commissioner, is set to change Mumbai's skyline in the near future.

    Civic chief Sitaram Kunte and chief of the High-rise Committee, justice (retd) Shafi Parkar, both advocated the need for towers citing space crunch in Mumbai.

    Participating in a seminar called 'Rising skyline of Mumbai' hosted by the practising engineers, architects and town planners association (PEATA) on Saturday, Kunte quoted an article in a reputed economics periodical, saying that Mumbai has only 30 buildings which are at a height of 100 metres or more, whereas Shanghai has 200 and New York has close to 500.

    The present committee, appointed last year, has approved 38 new proposals of high-rises and 40 proposals which were pending with the last committee, said the civic chief. In his address, justice (retd) Parkar said tall buildings were a necessary alternative for the rising population of Mumbai. He stressed that enough space around the buildings was required for the high-rises.

    Even as the limited space available makes it imperative to have high-rises, Mr Kunte said, a suggestion by the Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry (MCHI) to allow high-rises on small plots was not acceptable. He said the State government's approval to recommendations by the BMC on proposals for tall buildings - up to 120 metres - should not require the High-rise Committee approval and proposals for structures between 120 to 200 metres must be scrutinised by reputed institutions such as VJTI and IIT. Structures higher than 200 metres height must have structural consultants of international repute.

    Mr Kunte assured the PEATA members and developers that the civic body will not go ahead on proposals without prior consultation. He also informed them that till May 31 this year, 326 proposals on high-rises were received by the High-rise committee, out of which 322 were cleared and 104 were pending. Sixty two are pending for submission of required documents.

    In his welcome speech, PEATA chairman Pravin Kanekar said the city skyline was changing fast with diminishing textile mills and old chawls which used to be part of its identity. High-rises are a necessity and proposals for them should be cleared on priority, he said.

    Making a presentation, Sunil Nesarikar, deputy chief fire officer of the BMC, said that soon, a 90 metre-high ladder will be procured to meet the requirements for fighting fires in Mumbai. Currently, the tallest ladder is 68 metres high and the tallest ladder available in the world is 120 metres high. The seminar was coordinated by architect Shirish Sukhatme and convened by Dr H M Raje and Ajit Khatri.

    78 skyscrapers approved in mumbai in one day..
     
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  14. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Market Potential Index (MPI) for Emerging Markets - 2011
    March 16, 2012

    This indexing study is conducted by MSU-IBC to help companies compare the Emerging Markets with each other on several dimensions. Eight dimensions are chosen to represent the market potential of a country over a scale of 1 to 100. Each dimension is measured using various indicators, and are weighted in determining their contribution to the Overall Market Potential Index.

    (MSU-IBC:- International Business Center (CIBER). http://global.broad.msu.edu/ibc/)

    [​IMG]

    Market Potential Index (MPI) for Emerging Markets - 2011 >> globalEDGE: Your source for Global Business Knowledge
     
  15. sunny_10

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