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Largest Emerging Economies, E7+SA, growth prospects and challenges

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by sunny_10, Jul 8, 2012.

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  1. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    India Needs a 10 Years City Infrastructure Development Plan

    first, there is a book knowledge that, "for every dollar invested, you get 66cents, 66% return through Direct and Indirect taxes." and this definition is mainly applicable if the investments are done on Infrastructure. :cheers:

    (for example, if you build a road of $5.0billion, then the employers paying taxes on their salaries, the companies supplying products/materials also paying taxes, and the sources of supplied materials also have to pay taxes on the products/material supplied. which all fall in Direct Taxes. and then we use our 'after tax' salaries/profits in market to purchase daily uses products, buy cars/home/products etc, which all again result in generating Indirect taxes as even the shops pay taxes, you buy daily usage products...... its all good if the money is kept within the country, specially while investment on Infrastructure. :)

    this way, more and more you do investment in Infrastructure, better it is. and don't forget that China is still a developing country, they first have to have high investment in electricity, roads, bridges, metro trains etc, which all means for basics of life in a developed country :tup:

    and as India type developing country will grow by at least 6%+ by the next 30years+, we expect it to have higher expanses on Infra projects. even if it reach Public Debt at 120%+ to GDP by 2020, for example, and it borrows $2.0trillion extra by 2020 this way, along with the existing $1.0trillion plan for the next 5 years, its still very good considering its effects on accelerating growth due to high investments and the positive effects of well developed infrastructure on growth from 2020+, hence reducing debt level since then onward :india:

    I would advise a 10 Years City Infra Development Plan, along with the existing 5 years plan which mainly covers investment in power projects/ regional developments like roads, ports etc. and this 10 years plan would mean to develop infrastructure in the cities, in terms of metro trains, bridges, expressways, parks etc. and it would have at least double expenditure to that of 5 years plan. for example, say $3.0trillion infra development in 20 major cities by 2025 :india:
    (and considering 7%+ growth due to higher investments in Infra Projects, along with 7% inflation too, we find Nominal GDP of India reaching at least $6.0trillion+ by 2025 itself.....)

    with that, i strongly favor SEZ development to be categorized as Infrastructure Projects, giving more strength to the SEZ developers in acquiring lands by paying 5-6 times to the land prices too, if required. similar to how roads were laid down in 50s and 60s by forceful way to acquiring lands, with paying higher price to the farmers that time too, true :india:
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2014
  2. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    duplicate post
     
  3. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    .
    I just discussed Debt level on different emerging and developed economies as below. i think it may have a place in this thread too :tup:


    => Debt on India and Other Emerging Economies

    While concerning India, as I have more knowledge about India, we find its Public Debt at around 50% to GDP and Total National Debt closed to 65%. but as total foreign reserve of India itself stood at around $300billion, very closed to it's total Foreign Debt at around $350billion to date. so I would say that Total National Debt on India would come at around 55%. (as, the Foreign Reserve holding by India does means for borrowing debt of other countries, which may be used for debt payments, makes sense?)

    also, as discussed in the post as below, India's GDP would grow by at least 6.0%+ for the next 20 years time, so it has a little meaning, how much debt India really has. in fact, around 55% Debt to GDP does looks impressive, i think......

    an estimate of Public Debt and Government Debt on the different countries is given as below......

    => List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    [​IMG]


    =>

    and on comparison with the above GDP curves of falling economies as above, we have growth rate of emerging economies like India, Indonesia, Turkey, China etc as below. :coffee:

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/gdp-growth-annual

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-growth-annual

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual


    here we clearly see emerging economies like India, for example, having 6.5%+ average growth rate per year since 2008 recession....

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual


    =>
    along with the National Debt level as above, this is how Household Debt of emerging economies like BRIC stand as compare to these falling economies. :coffee:

    [​IMG]



    =>
    Total Debt on BRIC/India

    we have one more picture of Total Debt level of BRIC as compare to these falling economies as below. here about India, we generally say few points as below:

    1st; that Total Household Debt of India is much less than the total Gold Reserves in these house of India.

    2nd; Total Foreign Debt on India is closed to total Foreign Reserve of India.

    3rd; Total 'Public Debt', excluding foreign debt is well maintained below 50% to GDP, along with at least 6%+ expected growth rate for the next 20 years+ :coffee:


    =>
    [​IMG]

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/global-debt-guide

    .
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2014
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  4. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    You also need to factor in the value of gold held by Indians which is not part of our GDP and also the black economy. If you add these figures, you will realise that Indian economy is already USD 5 trn economy and on PPP may be more than China also.
     
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  5. Marqueur

    Marqueur Peaceful Silence ELITE MEMBER

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    the amount of gold held by Indians is tremendous ... one of my acquaintance once said that if all the gold in the family is collected ... every member will get minimum 8 kg gold ... and that person lives in a joint family :cheers:
     
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  6. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Every family hordes gold and each generation adds to it. My wife has part of jewellery handed down to her by my mother and her mother which is good about over 200 yrs old.
     
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  7. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    The BRICs are falling off the investment map

    Investor euphoria has turned into apathy after the four economies grew at the slowest pace since 2009 and the MSCI BRIC Index trailed world markets for a third straight year. The man who came up with the BRIC moniker -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jim O’Neill -- announced his retirement this week.

    “It looks like investors, certainly the trend-following types, have lost interest,” O’Neill, who will step down as chairman of Goldman Sachs’ asset

    Brazil, Russia, India, China and BRIC funds have recorded combined outflows of about $8.3 billion since 2010 even as those investing in global emerging markets had inflows of $70 billion, EPFR Global data show.
    The BRICs have “now become unfashionable,” John-Paul Smith, an emerging markets strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London who predicted the underperformance of BRIC shares in 2011, said in a report e-mailed Jan. 24.

    If a country is doing well you don't have its currency declining 25 percent in two years, inflation of 9 percent, investment declining and credit being down graded.
     
  8. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Do you know that in 1998, You put sanctions against India & Pakistan for conducting nuke tests. What Happened? India was not at all hurt but your stooge Pak reached bankruptcy. And, Sanctions against India hurt you more. Today, your diabetese drug is sent from India at much lower price than what you can buy an American equivalent. That shud tell you how India is good for US.
    Also bcoz you cant produce enough of Doctors and engineers, US has agreed to allow Indians to work with equivalent qualifications provided the universities they get the degree is acceridited to some US university. Same is the case with UK.
    You only produce sex workers who need to get the money to pay for education by working as porn stars. In India, you don't pay a penny for 10th standard education. Can you compete with us?
     
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  9. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Our gold reserves are in the region of 20000 tonnes.
     
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  10. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    The idea of the sanctions were designed to get India and Pakistan to halt further nuclear tests, sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and agree not to deploy missiles with nuclear warheads. As far as US competing with India, would you like to start with penis size or IQ.
     
  11. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Indian households have at least 30,000+ tons of Gold, your estimate would be at least 7-8 years old, check :coffee:

    since gold import was freed in India, by 1996/97, we have 'net' gold import at least 700 tons+ every year, on average. for example of even the last financial year 2012-13, even if the rupees fallen from it high of 44 per US$ in 2011, we find around 900tons+ 'net' gold import for the last financial year 2012-13 itself. just consider, even if your data belongs to 2007, since then at least 5000tons+ 'net' gold import has been registered, which excludes gold import in illegal ways.....

    and if we consider total gold holding by the Indian Household at 30,000tons, it means for around 475*3 = $1.425trillion, at the ongoing gold price at $1340+ per ounce, as of today.......

    this dose means, gold as a 'foreign currency', held by Indian houses, is closed to 70% to Indian GDP. and as foreign reserve is already closed to total foreign debt, and Outward FDI is itself closed to as much as foreign FDI to India, this way we would find the above picture of post#153, of Total Debt on India, comes below 25% of GDP :tup:
     
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  12. CountryFirst2

    CountryFirst2 Lieutenant SENIOR MEMBER

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    There's a communist agenda going on in American political circles. They planned the destruction of the dollar by using the phoney currency printed by the private Feds. Before the privatisation of the currency and banks, this was not the case. And Americans were of good enough intelligance before the communists started poisioning their water and food with fluoride and arsenic, the metals which kills your brain and also destroys the abilities of the pineal gland. The people of America is actually victims of politics of their own govt. (or more accurately the activities of the phoney Rohschild banking cartel Federal Reserve Banks). You'll also be surprised to know that both Communism and Capitalism was created and funded by the same Rothschild family, to loot nations. Capitalism by privitization and communism through centralisation and looting by infilterating the govt, as happened in Stalin's Russia.

    Our gold reserves was worth more than 1000trillion USD before the British came and looted all temples at the guidance of robber baron Rothschild family.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2014
  13. CountryFirst2

    CountryFirst2 Lieutenant SENIOR MEMBER

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    Sometime last year, China became the largest importer of gold. So this will change if China manages to keep their growth.
     
  14. CountryFirst2

    CountryFirst2 Lieutenant SENIOR MEMBER

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    Ahankaram is not healthy. Let's not be happy at the bad fortune of others.
     
  15. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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