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Largest Emerging Economies, E7+SA, growth prospects and challenges

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by sunny_10, Jul 8, 2012.

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  1. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    India needs free floating Gold, with no import tax on it :india:

    I always support Gold Import as its all about a foreign currency in terms of gold, which floats as per market demand and having high gold import in fact help the Trade Balance in tough times. for example, like how we saw even export of Gold in first quarter of 2009, when Indian Rupees depreciated to Rs50/US$, from its Rs40/$ level of mid 2008, which then made the Gold price lesser in the Indian market as compare the its Dollar value in the international market, which then resulted in even export of Gold coins from India in the first quarter of 2009, during the peak of recession.......

    Gold import has a unique role in the Indian trade and it can't be equated to oil import, as its in fact the "most valued foreign currency". there must not be any tax on the Gold import to keep it always floating....:thumb:

     
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  2. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    OECD: 'Dramatic shift' in balance of economic power
    9 November 2012

    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is predicting a "dramatic shift" in the balance of economic power.


    Over the next 50 years, the OECD says emerging economies will account for an ever increasing share of output.

    In its report, it says China will overtake the United States as early as 2016.

    The OECD expects the current trends of faster growth in emerging economies to continue.

    The result is that the largest of them, those with the biggest populations, will overtake what the OECD calls fast-ageing economic heavyweights, such as Japan and the eurozone.

    On the basis known as purchasing power parity, which tends to favour emerging countries, China and India combined will be larger than the entire developed world by 2060.

    And the OECD predicts that China will overtake the US in the next few years.

    The report says gaps in living standards will narrow, but will not be eliminated. In the poorest countries, income per person is predicted to quadruple. For China and India, it will increase seven fold.

    The report assumes that the recent financial crisis has had an impact on the level of economic activity, but none on long-term growth trends.

    The report also acknowledges that it ignores possible risks such as disorderly debt defaults and unsustainable use of natural resources.

    BBC News - OECD: 'Dramatic shift' in balance of economic power


    => Balance of economic power will shift dramatically over the next 50 years, says OECD

    http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/balanc...tdramaticallyoverthe next50yearssaysoecd.htm

     
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  3. Virajith

    Virajith Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Nice info sunny_10 Thanks for giving amazing info:thank_you2:
    You with single hand run this Thread successfully
     
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  4. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Average GDP Growth Rate of Asian Industrialized Countries Since 1981 :tup:

    My this post is just to keep a record of the comparative 'Average' Growth rate of India with "Newly Asian Industrialized" countries, along with the Matured Industrialized Asian countries like Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore as below.

    this effort is just to keep an eye on the Average Growth Rate of India since 1981, as compare to other 'Asian' Industrialized Countries :thumb:

    Select Country or Country Groups

    => Newly industrialized country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    1st, China: 9.998% since 1980

    2nd, India: 6.3% since 1981

    3rd, Philippines: 3.3% since 1980

    4th, Thailand: 5.4% since 1980

    5th, Indonesia: 5.2% since 1980

    6th, Malaysia: 5.9% since 1980

    7th, Singapore: 6.9% since 1980

    8th, Korea: 6.4% since 1980

    9th, Taiwan: 5.9% since 1980

    10th, Japan: 2.1% since 1980

    Select Country or Country Groups

    and this comparison clearly tells us, how population growth rate of around 2% since 1981, with 500mil extra people this way, has covered every success of India since 1947. while total number of Middle Class of India is itself more than total population at the time of freedom, 1947 :facepalm:
     
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  5. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    MMS, the 3rd 'wisest' Finance Minister of world, similar to Super Hit SlumDog Millionaire

    here, I would like to share my personal experience during the economic performance of India during 90s till 2003. I was doing my Masters from University of Technology Sydney and as usual, we were always willing to defend our country. one day in the common lounge of UTS, few Asians straight said, "what economic reform India had that hardly around 5% growth it had since 1991? look on China, its well over 10%+ since early 80s, when economic reforms took place in China. China does copy technologies and then they outperformed its Western rivals too, but Indians couldn't copy even Chinese economic reforms....." :tsk:.....
    (I also did a mistake while saying that Chinese companies copy techs while India companies do by themselves, and this was the response :facepalm:)

    and have a look on the data's as below, during the time of Indira Gandhi+Rajiv Gandhi of 80s, India had around 5.59% growth rate for the 10 years of 1981 to 1990. and after the "economic reforms" in 1991, the growth rate of India was hardly 5.352% for the 12 years of 1991 to 2002, while we remember that Mr M.Singh was also referred as the 3rd 'wisest' finance minister of the world in early 90s :hang2:

    => India GDP - real growth rate - Economy

    thats why I always doubt all these Western Rewards like Oscars/ Nobel etc, he was a 'super hit' Finance Minister in the same way as how SlumDog Millionaire got so many Oscars :hang2:

    and I do remember the time of late 2004 when I told to at least 20+ Asian friends that Indian growth rate was well above 8.2% this year, the first ever 8.0%+ growth rate of India, I ever read in the Indian newspapers, since I started reading news in my life :thumb:
     
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  6. MiG-23MLD

    MiG-23MLD Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    A prediction is based upon current trends, and potential trends.

    Asia will growth but not at the rates imagine in those prospects.

    Second China`s economic growth is highly overhyped.


    China`s PPP GDP growth is 8% currently but per capita GDP PPP is around USD $8000

    so China adds around $USD 600 last year PPP GDP per capita but to give you an example the US with 1.9% growth adds $800 dollars too, Mexico with USD $15000 and growth of 3.7% adds almost $USD 700 a year pretty much numbers mislead.


    However the Chinese growth is due to macroeconomics and not micro-economics
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2013
  7. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    For a mini-Euro-BRICS summit ahead of the St Petersburg G20

    As a result of the 3rd Euro-BRICS seminar organized by LEAP in partnership with MGIMO in Cannes on September 27-28, 2012, the experts from Euroland and BRICS countries who gathered for the occasion, wished to give their leaders a series of arguments in favour of holding a mini-Euro-BRICS summit ahead of the St Petersburg G20. This recommendation is in line with two other warnings given to the G20 leaders in 2009 (Open letter to the London-G20 leaders, 03/24/2009) and in 2011 (Advice to the Cannes-G20 leaders, 09/15/2011) relating to the management of the global systemic crisis at the initiative of Franck Biancheri, director of Studies and Strategy at LEAP, who passed away last October 30th. This letter is also intended as a tribute to all the energy he expended over four years, despite his illness: explaining the crisis, formulating policy recommendations to solve it, and creating the tools to make these recommendations heard.

    In 2013, the world realizes that the U.S. debt that weighs so heavily on the global economy, has no solution: its astronomical size and the extreme weakness of economic fundamentals in the United States leave nothing more than to predict the collapse of the international currency as the inevitable consequence of and solution to the U.S. debt crisis. Thus the global crisis is about to experience a new dramatic development. The question is: Is the world prepared to bear such a shock?

    Indeed, since the first signs of the crisis in 2008, the rest of the world has worked well, especially in one objective: to dissociate itself from the faltering U.S. power and make every effort to avoid being dragged into its probable collapse.

    Among the many measures in the world, two are noteworthy:

    . the significant strengthening of Euroland: helped in this by the frontal attack led by the Anglo-American financial system against the Euro, the Europeans have stood firm, closed ranks, made courageous decisions, introduced innovative mechanisms (MES, banking union,...), increased the role of the ECB,... In 4 years, Euroland has become a reality now calling for a new step of political union which is finally starting to be debated, an entity rooted in the world of the 21st century, and the new engine of European integration.

    . the alliance of five major emerging powers of this young 21st century: the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). This group, club, or network, is a promising future bearer of innovation in many ways: participating in all the upward-curves of global statistics such as growth, demographics, geopolitical influence, energy consumption, quality of life and expectancy, etc., the BRICS are five countries that the 21st century will de facto have to cope with. These five countries are also the flagships of continents and, for most of them, of regional entities covering covering almost the entire non-Western world.

    Euroland and the BRICS share another eminently modern characteristic: one asset of the BRICS is the structural lightness of their association that allows them to focus their energy on goals rather than on the construction of some institutional structure. Euroland also, despite the absence of any legal reality, is de facto the new engine of European integration, leaving the heavy machinery of the EU institutions far behind. At the time of the Internet, video-conferencing and networking, the project prevails, and entities which have understood this have a considerable advance in efficiency over all others.

    Euroland and the BRICS also have a common difficulty to be officially recognized as something other than a monetary union on one side and an economic alliance of the other. But since the world pretends to ignore them, why not start recognizing one another through the holding of a first official meeting together?

    Finally, many common interests bring Euroland and the BRICS closer, starting with their desire to create a new international reserve currency based on a basket of key international currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Yuan, Real, Rouble, gold ...) instead of the U.S. Dollar alone, now unable to take on the role as a pillar of the global monetary system.

    While these two entities were gaining weight and structure, G20 Summits followed one another, all of them devoted to the resolution of the crisis but none putting the central question of replacing the basic currency of the global economic system on the agenda (ie the U.S. Dollar, a currency exposing the world to the vagaries of its volatile economy in decline, a currency now unrepresentative of the multi-polar world economy, a central cause of today’s disorders and of even greater disorders tomorrow) by a basket of currencies, called the "Global" for example.

    In 2009 (ahead of the London Summit) and in 2011 (ahead of the Cannes Summit), LEAP issued two strong recommendations for the G20 leaders. Meanwhile, this issue has begun to be advocated by actors of more significant size, such as China for example. But the subject failed to be seriously tackled in international fori, revealing the influence of some countries on global governance bodies, and forcing the others to build their economic and monetary decoupling strategies outside this framework.

    While everyone calls for the adaptation of international institutions to the characteristic of today's world, the failure of this reform gives way to the logic of blocks and all the risks they convey.

    In its second open letter to G20 leaders in 2011, LEAP mentioned a window of opportunity of two years (2012-2013) opened by the coming to power of a new generation of leaders: « Mexico, South Korea, China, Indian France, Italy, Germany… from the end of 2012, the G20 Summit would bring together political leaders mainly elected "in the crisis", and not before the crisis as was the case before ». This feature was considered auspicious in terms of the ability to get rid of certain blocks from the G20 table.

    As regards the next summit more specifically, that scheduled for September in St. Petersburg, it focuses much hope of renewal because it will be the first to be held outside the Western sphere of influence and the world can a priori rely on Vladimir Putin not to hesitate and put on the agenda sensitive subjects including, hopefully, the question of the reform of the international monetary system.

    That said, if putting this question on the agenda would be undeniable progress, it is not certain that the powers gathered around the table will be able to seize the opportunity, despite all their individual goodwill: partly divided goodwill is not able to make a difference.

    Another potentially positive aspect consists of the fact that the BRICS will probably - but not certainly – put their alliance to service this cause. Of course, the BRICS have an interest to see a new international currency put in place, but they also have other options available to them, those related to the logics of blocks which have already been mentioned. All the more since, even by combining their five influences, they still lack weight for a real rebalancing of powers.

    In contrast, a Euro-BRICS alliance is capable of creating a real majority in the G20: accounting for nine out of twenty of these powers sitting at the table, a Euro-BRICS front defending a project acknowledged as a bearer of positive evolution, is able to win the support of the whole group, marginalizing the few voices that will inevitably rise against.

    But such an alliance cannot be improvised. It is for this reason that this third exercise of politico-strategic recommendations is intended for Euro-BRICS leaders of the G20 and focuses on one single recommendation: in the framework of the BRICS Summit scheduled by President Putin on the sidelines of the G20, to plan a first Euro-BRICS mini-summit preparing for the definition of common positions designed to change the balance at work in the decision-making processes of the G20, a body that, if it misses this opportunity to affirm its added-value, will soon disappear from the radar of global governance for the benefit of the great cacophony of supranational entities currently being established throughout the world (CELAC, USAN, MERCOSUR, ALBA, CAN, ALADI, NAFTA, OAS, AU, NEPAD, SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, WAEMU, CEMAC, Arab League, EU, EFTA, ASEAN, ASEAN+3, EAC, BRICS, CASSH, Eurasian Union, etc ...).

    From the reconnection of the G20 to global reality, everyone would be a winner, including the powers that are so fiercely opposed to it. A multi-polar world under the auspices of a renovated global governance, or national and supra-national competing blocks, Euro-BRICS leaders have the cards in hand to steer the world in one way or another.

    [​IMG]

    15/01/2013 - A recommendation to Euro-BRICS leaders: Organize a mini Euro-BRICS Summit, ahead of the St Petersburg G20, in order to develop common strategic positions to exit the crisis and bring global governance into the XXI° century
     
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  8. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    BRIC's Composite PMI for December 2012:
    Markit Economics - Press releases

    1st, Brazil:

    The seasonally adjusted HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index posted 53.2 in December, up from 53.0 in November

    http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10510

    2nd, Russia:

    Remaining above the 50.0 no-change threshold for the twenty-eighth month in succession in December, the Index eased to 56.1, from 57.1 in November.

    http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10498

    3rd, India:

    The HSBC India Composite Output Index posted 56.3 in December, up from 53.2 in November.

    http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10507

    4th, China:

    The HSBC China Composite Output Index posted 51.8 in December, up from 51.6 in November.

    http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10556
     
  9. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Global Packaging Survey 2013 - Economic Outlook in BRIC
    Publication date: January 2013

    Global Packaging Survey 2013 - Economic Outlook in BRIC - market research report

    Product Synopsis
    “Global Packaging Industry Survey 2013: Economic Outlook in BRIC” is a new report by Canadean that provides the reader with an extensive and authoritative analysis of the economic outlook in BRIC for 2013. Furthermore, this report grants access to the opinions and strategies of business decision makers and competitors in regard to the growth prospects of the four largest emerging economies, and examines their actions surrounding business opportunities in these countries in 2013. In addition, the global packaging industry survey report provides a comprehensive account of the opinions conveyed by executives to help the reader to judge which of the BRIC nations could really be the drivers of the global economy in 2013. The report also provides access to information categorized by company type, region, and company turnover.

    Introduction and Landscape

    This report is the result of an extensive survey drawn from Canadean’s exclusive panel of leading global packaging industry companies; it identifies respondents’ current business scenarios with BRIC nations and demonstrates respondents’ intentions of changes in business dynamics during 2013. Furthermore, the report tracks the leading business concerns that affect business with BRIC nations and understands respondents’ willingness for business with BRIC nations in 2013.

    What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

    The survey reflects that both packaging industry buyer and supplier respondents acknowledge ‘India’ and ‘China’ as the key BRIC nations for their current business operations; in addition, respondents expect a positive economic outlook for BRIC in 2013.

    What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

    Both buyers and suppliers identify that the ‘policy towards foreign investment’ will improve significantly in the BRIC nations.

    What makes this report unique and essential to read?

    “Global Packaging Industry Survey 2013: Economic Outlook in BRIC” is a new report by Canadean that provides the reader with an extensive and authoritative analysis of the economic outlook in BRIC for 2013. This report identifies respondents’ current business scenario with BRIC nations and demonstrates respondents’ intentions of changes in business dynamics during 2013. In addition, the global packaging industry survey report provides a comprehensive account of the opinions conveyed by executives to help the reader to judge which of the BRIC nations could really be the drivers of the global economy in 2013.

    Key Features and Benefits
    To identify the perceptions of respondents about the intensity of current business with BRIC nations, and explore the change in business conditions and their influence on BRIC nations in 2013.

    Analyzes the business expectations of global packaging industry respondents within the BRIC nations.

    Uncovers the key issues and challenges that restrain respondents from doing business with BRIC nations.

    Identifies the economic outlook for the BRIC nations in 2013.

    To understand the expected changes in business volumes with Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2013.

    Key Market Issues

    In total, 80% of respondents from Asia-Pacific declare that they currently operate their business in ‘India’, while 54% from Europe operate their business in ‘Russia’.

    Respondents from small and large companies indicate high growth in ‘Brazil’, while respondents from medium-sized companies acknowledge ‘India’ and ‘China’ as the key growth markets for business expansions in 2013.

    Regardless of regional classification across all BRIC nations, respondents highlight that their companies do not plan to do business with BRIC nations in 2013 as it is ‘not part of their current business strategy’.

    Respondents from North America, Europe, and the Rest of the World identify ‘physical infrastructure’ as a key attribute that is expected to improve considerably within the BRIC nations in 2013.

    Analysis reveals that 44%, 42%, and 37% of respondents from the buyer segment expressed that they ‘expect an improvement’ in the general state of the economy in Brazil, India, and China in 2013 respectively.

    Key Highlights

    In total, 57% and 56% of supplier respondents consider ‘India’ and ‘China’ to be the most significant BRIC markets.

    Canadean’s industry survey reveals that buyer respondents give comparatively more preference for doing business with ‘Brazil’, ‘Russia’, and ‘China’ than ‘India’ over the next 12 months.

    Of supplier respondents, ‘unfavorable government policies’ and ‘regulatory changes’ are considered the key barriers for business with BRIC nations in 2013.

    In total, 61% of buyer respondents envisage the ‘policy towards foreign investment’ to improve in Brazil in 2013.

    Overall, 46% of buyer respondents state that there are ‘no major changes expected’ in the future economic outlook of Russia.

    Global Packaging Survey 2013 - Economic Outlook in BRIC - market research report
     
  10. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    India services PMI rises to one-year high in January

    The country's services sector grew at the fastest fastest pace in the past 12 months in January driven by an increase in new business orders, the HSBC purchasing managers index (PMI) data said today.

    The growth in the country's services sector, which makes up for nearly 60 per cent of the country's economic output, witnessed significant pick up in new orders. :thumb:

    Besides, the private sector employment activity also increased for eleventh month running, it said.

    The HSBC Services Business Activity Index rose to 57.5 in January, up from 55.6 in December, signalling a sharp expansion

    in output, and one that was the fastest since January last year. :thumb:

    "Service sector activity continued to pick up pace led by a faster inflow of new business," HSBC Chief Economist for India & ASEAN Leif Eskesen said.

    Growth in activity has how been sustained for 15 successive months in this sector but services firm were a little less optimistic about the outlook for the sector. The the degree of confidence of the services firm was the lowest registered in three months.

    Overall, services firms in India remained optimistic regarding activity levels in the upcoming year, with around 42 per cent of services companies predicting overall activity at their units to increase, while just 3 per cent forecasting a decline.

    Input prices at private sector companies in India rose for the 46th successive month during January, though the rate of price rise was much weaker than a year ago.

    "Inflation readings held broadly steady, with fuel, raw material and labour cost pressures still simmering," Eskesen said adding that "these numbers underscore the need for the RBI to approach policy easing with caution".

    The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on January 29 for the first time in nine months, in a move to propel economic growth by easing fund flow to perk up consumption and investment demand.

    The bank also lowered country's GDP forecast to 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 as against 5.8 per cent estimated earlier.

    Earlier, an HSBC survey had shown that the growth of country's manufacturing sector slowed to a three month low in January, primarily due to moderation in new orders and power outages during the month.

    Accordingly, the HSBC India Composite Output Index - which maps both the manufacturing and services index – stood at 56.3 in January, unchanged from December's reading. :thumb:


    Services PMI rose to 12-month high in Jan: HSBC

    (Reuters) Activity in India's service sector expanded at the fastest pace in a year last month, driven by rising foreign orders, but businesses were a little less optimistic about the future, a survey showed on Tuesday.

    The HSBC Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index, which gauges business activity from a survey of over 400 companies ranging from banks to hospitals, jumped to 57.5 in January from 55.6.

    The services PMI has held above 50, the level that divides growth and contraction, for over a year, even though India appears set to finish the 2012/13 fiscal year with its slowest economic growth rate in a decade.

    Services make up over 60 percent of Asia's third-largest economy. Some of India's top services exports are software, back-office support and banking services. "Service sector activity continued to pick up pace led by a faster inflow of new business," said Leif Eskesen, HSBC's chief economist for India and Southeast Asia, in a release.

    The new business sub-index jumped to 58.3, the highest since August 2011, prompting firms to step up the pace of hiring :thumb:, although not at a very strong rate. Although companies were optimistic about the future, the business expectations index fell slightly from December.

    The survey also showed input and output prices rising at a similar pace to the prior month, though much weaker than a year ago.

    Wholesale price inflation eased to a three-year low of 7.18 percent in December, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to cut its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent last week.

    "Inflation readings held broadly steady, with fuel, raw material and labour cost pressures still simmering. These numbers underscore the need for the RBI to approach policy easing with caution," said HSBC's Eskesen.

    The central bank is expected to cut the repo rate by another 75 basis points to 7 percent by September.

    Manufacturing activity grew in January at its slowest pace in three months, a similar survey showed last week.

    India services PMI rises to one-year high in January: HSBC Markit - Indian Express
     
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  11. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    A Factor you might be missing........... Labour productivity in India, 15% of US productivity Despite rapid growth over the last decade, labour productivity in India is still much lower than in many other countries. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, 2001, it is only 15% of US productivity. There are also large variations in productivity levels within the country.

    Can these differences be explained by differing management practices? Economists have typically been sceptical about the importance of management on the grounds that competition will drive badly-managed companies out of the market. A second reason for their scepticism is the complexity of management, making it hard to measure. Recent work, however, has focused on specific management practices that can be measured, taught in B-schools and recommended by consultants.
    Labour productivity in India, 15% of US productivity - Economic Times

    This says an american is ten times as productive as an India, but then we wont quibble over the fact it might take ten Indians or eight to produce what an american produces.

    Overall Productivity ppp statistics - countries compared - Nation Master

    Of course thats why 300 milion americans produce 3 and half times as much as 1.4 billion Indians roughly.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2013
  13. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    With $85 trillion, how India can become world's largest economy

    According to a study by US banking group Citi, India will be the world's largest economy within 39 years. Indian GDP in 2050, measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will be $85.97 trillion. China, in second place, will have a GDP of $ 80.02 trillion and the US $ 39.07 trillion (see chart).

    [​IMG]

    With an estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capita income of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries like Switzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is.

    On paper - mathematically - Indian poverty should disappear by 2050. The reason it won't is that huge inequalities in income will persist unless we rapidly implement second-generation economic reforms which deliver real benefits to the bottom of India's socio-economic pyramid.

    The first chart in our three-chart collage shows the ranking of the top five countries by GDP in 2050 as per Citi's projections. Indian GDP in 2011 is estimated at $4.45 trillion (PPP). To reach $85.97 trillion in 2050, the Indian economy will have to grow at an average annual rate of 8.1% a year for the next 39 years. Optimistic? Perhaps, but not overly so.

    The Citi study relies heavily on India's two dividends - demographic and democratic. The demographic dividend will ensure that India has the largest number of working-age people in the world (over 800 million) between 2015 and 2035 before tapering off as our population reaches a plateau of just over 1.60 billion and starts ageing (as China's already is). Fertility rates of increasingly educated urban and rural Indian women will dip from today's 2.6 to 1.7, which is when a country's birth and death rates equalise.

    A large number of working-age Indians between 18 and 60, however, will be less than optimally productive if they remain poorly educated and are therefore unemployable. To gain from our 20-year demographic sweet spot, education reform must clearly top the government's agenda. Infosys mentor N R Narayana Murthy was partly right when he said that the standard of IIT students has fallen. It has. Too many are rote-learners, spewed out by coaching classes, not creative thinkers.

    Education reform must start with government-run primary schools. Shockingly, in some villages, primary schools have no teachers, no students and an empty shed that serves as a classroom. The government spends 52,000 crore on education every year. That is less than it spends on fertiliser subsidy alone ( 55,000 crore).

    The second dividend Citi banks on to project India's rise to the top of the GDP rankings in 2050 - especially in comparison with China - is democracy. China's autocratic government, the argument goes, can command 10% GDP growth, build superhighways and create gleaming infrastructure.

    But beneath the towers and the maglev bullet train tracks of Shanghai lurks social tension. As China's per capita income rises, its 1.34 billion people will increasingly yearn for real freedom: a free press, an open Internet and, most crucially, democracy.

    If the Chinese government can't deliver on these, a "Chinese Spring" a decade hence cannot be ruled out. That could plunge China into years of uncertainty. Throughout history, as countries grew richer, they grew freer. Will China prove an exception? Unlikely. By that token, India's democracy is a double-edge scimitar. Our raucous, open society takes us two steps forward economically and then one step backwards.

    But if governance reforms - land, electoral, judicial and police - are implemented quickly, the stage could be set for second-generation economic reforms that will turn our democratic institutions into assets for long-term economic and social growth. We will then move from a culture of high subsidies leaked to corrupt middlemen to a culture of high productivity.

    Second-generation economic reforms were stuck in UPA-I because of the Left's ideological opposition and have been derailed in UPA-II because of muddle-headed opposition from within the fractious UPA coalition itself. It is time to cast off the fetters.

    We must allow FDI in retail, introduce hybrid agricultural technology to double crop yields within a decade, modernise infrastructure, make land acquisition fairer to farmers, improve healthcare, pass enabling legislation to unleash the entrepreneurial energy of small and medium enterprises - the backbone of our economy - and implement tough, effective regulation to clean up business practice.

    India is set to become the world's third largest economy in the world in 2011 largely because Japan's GDP will shrink by around 2% to $4.42 trillion following the devastating earthquake and tsunami. But if a growing GDP is not to become a cruel irony for India's 445 million still-desperately poor people, the government must begin the second stage of economic liberalisation without losing any further time.

    Examine our second and third charts. The one on top is pyramid-shaped, split into three sections. It reflects India's current household income structure: a large base of the poor and relatively poor of over 860 million, a narrow intermediate section of the middle-class around 280 million and a tiny tip of the reasonably well-off of 70 million.

    The chart below it is diamond-shaped and reflects the shape of things to come in 2050 if political and economic reforms have their desired effect. The bottom section comprises around 330 million of the poor and relatively poor (down from 860 million today), the top section comprises the well-off, around 300 million, up from 70 million today and the intermediate bulge comprises the expanded middle-class of nearly one billion, up from 280 million today. That is the future. We must lay its foundation today.

    With $85 trillion, how India can become world's largest economy - Economic Times
     
  14. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    The world's GDP is currently $ 83.23 trillion. At this level we consume the production of 1.5 Earth. So we exhaust our unique Earth. If your predictions were right it would mean that we will consume the production of 5 or 6 Earth (in fact it will be 1.5 Earth for India, 1.5 Earth for China and 2 Earth for rest of world! that is to say around 5 Earth) and this seems impossible. Maybe even we will be obliged to return to the consumption of one or two Earth due to depletion of water, energy etc....
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_footprint

    [​IMG]

    Graph showing ecological footprints of nations along with the Human Development Index (a measure of quality of life) by Travelplannerbased on data from UN Development Programme and Global Footprint Network
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2013
  15. anuanoop0

    anuanoop0 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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