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Largest Emerging Economies, E7+SA, growth prospects and challenges

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by sunny_10, Jul 8, 2012.

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  1. Manmohan Yadav

    Manmohan Yadav Brigadier STAR MEMBER

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    but in UP the maximum land holding is limited to 8 acres right ? or is it 12 like in Maharashtra ?
     
  2. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    nothing like that now... it was during chak bandi... now you can purchase as much as you can.... some of my friends in western up has 100 acre land
     
  3. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    The Brics are building a challenge to western economic supremacy

    Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, united by rejection of the neoliberal model, plan to create their own institutions

    The recent summit of the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (Brics) in Durban, South Africa, completed the group's first cycle of summits, one in each of the five member countries. The summit declaration contained the usual pieties about "solidarity" between the Brics and their "shared goals". However, unlike previous declarations, this one contained the first steps towards creating Brics institutions.

    The most publicised among them, the Brics development bank, has been greeted with the usual western scepticism. Until recently, such scepticism tended to focus simply on comparative growth rates. With the Brics taking steps toward institutionalisation, there is a new element: can the Brics development bank really rival the IMF and the World Bank?

    For the New York Times, the Brics don't have "enough in common and enough shared goals to function effectively as a counterweight to the west". They are "deeply divided on some basic issues", are "rivals rather than allies in the global economy" and have achieved little. Worse, they have "widely divergent economies", invest little in each other and have "disparate foreign policy aims and different forms of government". Such a motley crew could declare a Brics development bank "feasible and viable", but the devil would be in the yet-to-be-agreed-upon details.

    Such scepticism is misleading. The Brics countries do have a mortar that binds them: their common experience, and rejection, of the neoliberal development model of the past several decades and the western-dominated IMF and the World Bank that still advocate it. Their rapid development over the previous couple of decades was despite, not because of, this. Countries whose governments were able and willing to resist this model developed faster. All Brics countries have become more conscious of this since the onset of the current financial and economic crisis, though individual countries' rhetoric and policies differ in the degree of their criticism of neoliberal policies.

    Once this is understood, the Brics' increasing coherence becomes evident. They have long called for the reform of the IMF and the World Bank only to meet with resistance. Rather than waiting, they have decided to act.

    The development bank was first proposed in New Delhi last year. The five leaders were charged with exploring the idea, which led them to being able to declare it viable and feasible at Durham. Now officials must work out the details.

    Undoubtedly the differences in economic weight between the Brics and the inevitability that China will dominate in some respects must be worked around. And it can be. For example, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM), a reserve pooling organisation that includes China, Japan and 11 other countries, does give its more weighty economies disproportional voting power, but no veto (such as the US has at the World Bank) and it is designed to benefit smaller economies.

    Beyond the headline-grabbing Brics bank, there were other initiatives put forward at Durban. A Contingent Reserve Agreement (CRA) to pool reserves was created, with China contributing $41bn, Brazil, India and Russia $18bn each and South Africa $5bn. There was a Multilateral Agreement on Co-operation and Co-financing for Sustainable Development between the development/export-import banks of the five countries as well as a Multilateral Agreement on Infrastructure Co-financing for Africa.

    The Brics common agenda of pushing international economic governance away from neoliberalism and western dominance was also manifest when they complained that austerity in the west was holding back world growth and that the central banks' unconventional monetary policy encouraged speculation worldwide rather than growth domestically.

    Given the recent attacks from countries in the west on the work of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which has been critical of western financial institutions, the Brics also made a particular point of calling for "strengthening UNCTAD's capacity to deliver on its programmes of consensus building, policy dialogue, research, technical co-operation and capacity building".

    The Durban declaration did not avoid international flashpoints either. On Syria it asked for "all parties to allow and facilitate immediate, safe, full and unimpeded access to humanitarian organisations to all in need of assistance" and there were also statements on Mali, Palestine, Iran, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

    Finally, for the first time, "China and Russia reiterate[d] the importance they attach to the status of Brazil, India and South Africa in international affairs and support[ed] their aspiration to play a greater role in the UN". This may not amount to satisfying the latter countries' UN security council aspirations but it was no mere verbiage either.

    Not since the days of the Non-Aligned Movement and its demand for a New International Economic Order in the 1970s has the world seen such a co-ordinated challenge to western supremacy in the world economy from developing countries.

    The Brics are building a challenge to western economic supremacy | Radhika Desai | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
     
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  4. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    naah, we now find US very close to the state SU had got till 1990, and now they have to start destroying defence arms in the same way as Russia did since 1990, along with the ongoing defence budget cuts. the current defence budget which they can't afford for longer by just borrowing more debts :wave:

    for example, Per Capita Income on PPP of Britain, Russia, China, India is as below, think, haven't the things changed to date? now US+EU economies are almost same as at 2008 level, while being heavily indebted now due to the debt they borrowed since 2008? while the emerging economies continue having decent growth even since 2008???? and don't forget, not only China registered 10%+ growth rate since 1990, but also India had on average 7% growth since 1992, and same is true in case of ASEAN, South America etc... things did changed during last 30 years :thumb: :ranger:

     
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  5. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    duplicate post
     
  6. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    the above two news have a simple meaning that Indian government may also consider to impose Economic/Trade sanctions on European Union to bring down CAD this way :coffee:
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2013
  7. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Just a joke for [MENTION=8797]sunny_10[/MENTION]


    [​IMG]
     
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  8. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    India up from 12th to 9th position in industrial production, by 2009
    09 March 2010

    New Delhi / Vienna: A new report by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) states that India has emerged as one of the world's top ten countries in industrial production.

    According to UNIDO's 'Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2010' the top ten in 2009 were: the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, the Republic of Korea, France, Italy, the U.K., India (9th) and Brazil. India surpassed Canada, Brazil and Mexico in 2009 to reach the 9th position from the 12th position it held in 2008.

    India is among the global top ten in the following sectors: basic metals; electrical machinery and apparatus; and other transport equipment, other than motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; textiles; leather, leather products and footwear; coke, refined petroleum products, nuclear fuel; chemicals and chemical products. :thumb:

    According to UNIDO estimates, India's manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita is 283 US$ compared to 631 US$ of Brazil.

    The report reveals that China is now the world’s second largest producer of manufacturing output. The share of China in world total of manufacturing value added (MVA) at constant 2000 US$ has reached 15.6 per cent in 2009, compared to 15.4 per cent of Japan, while the USA maintains its first rank with 19 per cent. These three countries combined produce half of the world manufacturing output.

    Despite the lead of China in absolute amount of production, the report suggests that Japan is still the most industrialized country of the world in terms of MVA per capita. Japan’s MVA per capita for 2008 was almost 9000 US$ compared to about 700$ of China.

    The report also suggests that the effect of the recent financial crisis on industrial growth was severe for industrialized countries, but relatively mild for developing countries.

    UNIDO’s International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2010 is the only international publication providing economists, planners, policymakers and business people with worldwide statistics on current performance and trends in the manufacturing sector. The publication presents recent data from national industrial surveys for more than 70 countries in detail. UNIDO maintains international industrial statistics database and disseminates its statistical products to the wide range of international data users.

    The Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2010 also provides internationally comparable data for major indicators of manufacturing activity. The data can be used to analyze patterns of growth and related long term trends, structural change and industrial performance in individual industries.

    MACHINIST - India up from 12th to 9th position in industrial production : UNIDO report
     
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  9. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    [​IMG]
    Manufacturing Sector in India
    March 2013

    Indian economy has made significant progress over the last few years, with the gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average rate of 5.3 per cent. The country is the world's third largest economy in terms of the purchasing power parity (PPP) and has investments amounting to nearly a trillion dollars lined up in partnership with the private sector in the coming years. Manufacturing, as an industry segment, is a crucial cog in the wheel of progress and has largely insulated the Indian economy from a future global turmoil; thanks to its innovation-driven orientation. The Government has also ensured a suitable manufacturing eco-system for domestic and international majors by strengthening the sector in every possible way.

    India's manufacturing sector is poised for immense growth in future owing to its eminent talent pool in science, technology and research. Deloitte's global index, 2013, for 38 nations, has ranked India the fourth most competitive manufacturing nation, behind China, the US and Germany. Not only this, but even the Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, 2013, based on a survey of CEOs, executives and other officials of 550 global manufacturing companies, has positioned India as second five years down the line, next only to China. :thumb:

    Growth Trend

    Driven by a robust pick in domestic orders and strengthening of international demand, India's manufacturing sector registered remarkable growth in February 2013. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a measure of factory production - stood at 54.2 in February 2013, up from 53.2 in the previous month, indicating an improvement in the overall health of the Indian manufacturing sector.

    The volume of incoming new orders at manufacturing firms in India rose during the month with around 29 per cent of monitored companies reporting higher levels of new work.

    Manufacturing Sector in India, Manufacturing Industry, Indian Industries


    =>I hope India might have got the 5th place by 2012 in this regard :coffee:

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    Outward FDI Exceed Inward Flows
    NEW DELHI, MAY 22

    India’s overseas investments reached close to 27 billion dollars, exceeding the inflows on equity account of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in fiscal 2012-13, ASSOCHAM findings revealed here today.

    The study said India’s overseas investment, comprising loans, equity and loans guaranteed aggregated to 26.83 billion dollars in financial year 2012-13, with maximum outflows taking place in October-January. However, the maximum outflow took place in June touching 3.53 billion dollars, the study said.

    It said overseas investments would exceed the FDI inflows on account of equity capital which totalled nearly 21 billion dollars between April- February of the fiscal 2012-13, the latest period for which data is available. Unlike in March, 2012, when one or two big ticket investments had pushed the monthly figure to a new high, there was no major inflow during March, 2013, the study said. :coffee:

    The study says in so far as the outward investments from India are concerned, they have mostly gone to Singapore, the Netherlands and a significant amount to the tax haven of Cayman Islands. For instance in March, out of the 1.88 billion dollars of total overseas investments, close to one billion dollars went to Cayman Islands.

    The study said although India's overseas investment is higher than the inward inflows, the overall investment climate in most parts of the globe is a dampener. “Risk aversion and lack of investment appetite is seen all through. It is not that only India is losing its position as an investment destination, but there is a demand slowdown and over capacity in many parts of the globe,” according to the findings.

    The study reveals that investment from Indian companies abroad has gone in areas relating to manufacturing, trade, restaurants, agri business and mining businesses. :tup: On the other hand, recent bullish trends in the global stock markets are seen riding on quantitative easing and printing of money by central banks, mainly in the United States, some European countries and significantly in Japan. UNI

    http://net.glpublications.in/epaperpdf//2352013//2352013-md-hr-2.pdf

    http://mg.glpublications.in/epaperpdf//2352013//2352013-md-hr-2.pdf
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2013
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  11. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    I am not sure exactly what manufacturing competitiveness means. The Size of the USA economy is predicted to be 2nd in 2050.
    Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $22.3 trillion

    Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $55,134

    Detail: Even though the U.S. is no longer number one, the size of its economy will have doubled while adding roughly 90 million people to its population. About 430 million people.


    China: Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $25.3 trillion

    Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $17,759

    Detail: HSBC predicts that China will overtake the U.S. in size sometime over the next 50 years as its population surges to 1.43 billion. Even with the increase, its income per capita will remain outside the top 50 nations.

    USA economy is predicted to be a little smaller then China with lot less people and 4 times the Percapita GDP.

    India prediction is pretty good, considering
    Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $8.1 trillion

    Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $5,060

    Detail: India's economy will have skyrocketed by 2050, growing from $960 billion to more than $8 trillion. The country will also add 400 million more people to its population over the next half century.


    Read more: These Economies Will Dominate The World In 2050 - Business Insider


    Read more: These Economies Will Dominate The World In 2050 - Business Insider
     
  12. sangos

    sangos Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Per Capita income is a good measure of productive competitiveness. Ex. We all hear of loss of manufacturing jobs in the USA to cheap locations like China. The truth of the matter is while the US has shunted out its 'low value' manufacturing it has actually bumped up 'high value' manufacturing in the country. So actually the USA has increased per capita incomes - a fact clearly overlooked in the 'loss of jobs and low growth rates' scenario.
     
  13. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    US's High Debt and it's effects if the Industries Back

    things don't work on linearity, with a sense of continuity :nono:

    US/EU has borrowed so much debt since 2008 recession that they can't afford the same if they face any new recession, while the factors of 2008 recession are more stronger now. as US/EU simply didn't have any growth since 2008, nor they are going to introduce any new technology in future which may change the world, and hence maintain a new flow of money from the rest of the world this way.....

    there is a purchasing power factor behind the lifestyle we talk here, while US/EU economies have many 'Value Added' factors for the imported products also, making their economies 30% to 50% higher than usual developing countries....

    for example, it costs around $3.2 (200 rupees) for a Medium Size Coffee in Sydney while the same is sold for hardly 25 to 40 Rupees in India, pretty good one. now the shop owner of US may earn over $100k this way, while the same would be around hardly 6.0 lacs ($10,000) for a similar size coffee shop of India...... this is how purchasing power differs. the economic size, based on 'exchange rate' factors have limited effects on the usual economic talks we have. just few days before, we discussed that Japanese Yen has fallen from 78 per US$ to around 102 by the last month, resulted their economy down from $6.0 trillion to around $5.0 trillion within just few months.........

    but you pay hardly $15 for shirt in KMART etc, and $40 is enough for a jeans then its because these items are imported from China, similarly the TV, fridge, cars, industrial products, including food products etc too. i do remember, we were struggling hard to reduce 'service cost' to 50% of the total product cost of the products we used to sell, as the factories were based in China, only assembly line we had in Sydney. (It was the largest industrial pump manufacturing company of world.) and this is how US/EU/Western economies have been hollowed from inside...... and if you get these industrial jobs back then it will result in 'very high' inflation for the next 10-12 years, which will in fact break down the economy, as you now have over 110% 'Debt to GDP' ratio, to date. and higher the inflation, say 10% for the first 5 years similar to developing countries, and higher the interests you will have to pay on it. for example, for inflation at 10%, you will have to pay at least 10% interests on the debt, means 11% of GDP for the interests only this way, for 110% Debt to GDP ratio. while Budget Expenditure of US is around 22% to GDP only, which itself require at least $1.0 trillions borrowing every year 'at present'. the Budget Expenditure of US, whose 70%+ goes for only Social Security+Medical+Defence+Interest payments at present :tsk:

    US/EU will have experience like how Russia had in 90s, which resulted in 400% depreciation of Ruble and around 75% fall in per capita income over the 90s.....:coffee:

    U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

    The US Debt Piles Up

    .
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2013
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  14. sunny_10

    sunny_10 BANNED BANNED

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    its in details as below: :tup:

    first here, the Table by World Bank as below clearly tells us the dominance of China on the side of High Tech Productions, the real Rise of China :china:

    also its good to see India exporting more High Tech Products than Brazil, as below. it does says that India is somewhere, but yes, far behind China :coffee:


    => High-technology exports (current US$)

    High-technology exports (current US$) | Data | Table



    => China Ranked Most Competitive Manufacturing Nation in the World :cheers:

    Over the next five years, 20th-century manufacturing stalwarts like the United States, Germany and Japan will be challenged to maintain their competitive edge to emerging nations such as China, India and Brazil, according to the 2013 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index report from Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited’s (DTTL) Global Manufacturing Industry group and the U.S. Council on Competitiveness. :tup:

    The report confirms that the landscape for competitive manufacturing is in the midst of a massive power shift – based on an in-depth analysis of survey responses from more than 550 chief executive officers (CEOs) and senior leaders at manufacturing companies around the world.

    (India looks good as below???? :india:)

    [​IMG]

    The 2013 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index once again ranks China as the most competitive manufacturing nation in the world both today, and five years from now. Germany and the United States round out the top three competitive manufacturing nations, but, according to the survey, both fall five years from now, with Germany ranking fourth and the United States ranking fifth, only slightly ahead of the Republic of Korea. The two other developed nations currently in the top 10 are also expected to be less competitive in five years: Canada slides from seventh to eighth place and Japan drops out of the top 10 entirely, falling to 12th place.

    (we hope to see India on 2nd place soon, as below :thumb:)
    [​IMG]

    The report found that access to talented workers is the top indicator of a country’s competitiveness – followed by a country’s trade, financial and tax system, and then the cost of labor and materials. Enhancing and growing an effective talent base remains core to competitiveness among the traditional manufacturing leaders – and increasingly among emerging market challengers as well.

    Manufacturing still matters a great deal for the economic prosperity of 20th century powerhouses – and these nations continue to have enough going for them to stay in the game and even thrive.

    China Ranked Most Competitive Manufacturing Nation in the World - arabiangazette.com
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2013
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  15. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Theres a difference in working cheap and being productive.

    U.S. Workers World's Most Productive


    American workers stay longer in the office, at the factory or on the farm than their counterparts in Europe and most other rich nations, and they produce more per person over the year.

    They also get more done per hour than everyone but the Norwegians, according to a U.N. report released Monday, which said the United States "leads the world in labor productivity."

    Each U.S. worker produces $63,885 of wealth per year, more than their counterparts in all other countries, the International Labor Organization said in its report. Ireland comes in second at $55,986, ahead of Luxembourg, $55,641; Belgium, $55,235; and France, $54,609.

    The productivity figure is found by dividing the country's gross domestic product by the number of people employed. The U.N. report is based on 2006 figures for many countries, or the most recent available.

    Only part of the U.S. productivity growth, which has outpaced that of many other developed economies, can be explained by the longer hours Americans are putting in, the ILO said.

    The U.S., according to the report, also beats all 27 nations in the European Union, Japan and Switzerland in the amount of wealth created per hour of work - a second key measure of productivity.

    Norway, which is not an EU member, generates the most output per working hour, $37.99, a figure inflated by the country's billions of dollars in oil exports and high prices for goods at home. The U.S. is second at $35.63, about a half-dollar ahead of third-placed France.

    Seven years ago, French workers produced over a dollar more on average than their American counterparts. The country led the U.S. in hourly productivity from 1994 to 2003.

    The U.S. employee put in an average 1,804 hours of work in 2006, the report said. That compared with 1,407.1 hours for the Norwegian worker, and 1,564.4 for the French.

    It pales, however, in comparison with the annual hours worked per person in Asia, where seven economies - South Korea, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia and Thailand - surpassed 2,200 average hours per worker. But those countries had lower productivity rates.

    America's increased productivity "has to do with the ICT (information and communication technologies) revolution, with the way the U.S. organizes companies, with the high level of competition in the country, with the extension of trade and investment abroad," said Jose Manuel Salazar, the ILO's head of employment.

    The ILO report warned that the widening of the gap between leaders such as the U.S. and poorer nations has been even more dramatic.

    Laborers from regions such as southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have the potential to create more wealth, but are being held back by a lack of investment in training, equipment and technology, the agency said.

    In sub-Saharan Africa, workers are only about a twelfth as productive as those in developed countries, the report said.

    "The huge gap in productivity and wealth is cause for great concern," ILO Director-General Juan Somavia said, adding that it was important to raise productivity levels of the lowest-paid workers in the world's poorest countries.

    China and other East Asian countries are catching up quickest with Western countries. Productivity in the region has doubled in the past decade and is accelerating faster than anywhere else, the report said.

    But they still have a long way to go: workers in East Asia are still only about a fifth as productive as laborers in industrialized countries.

    The vast differences among China's sectors tell part of the story. Whereas a Chinese industrial worker produces $12,642 worth of output - almost eight times more than in 1980 - a laborer in the farm and fisheries sector contributes a paltry $910 to gross domestic product.

    The difference is much less pronounced in the United States, where a manufacturing employee produced an unprecedented $104,606 of value in 2005. An American farm laborer, meanwhile, created $52,585 worth of output, down 10 percent from seven years ago, when U.S. agricultural productivity peaked.

    Labour productivity in India, 15% of US productivity - Economic Times

    US farm productivity per person is ten times that of India.
     
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