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LCA Tejas Multirole Aircraft

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Dark_Prince, Apr 14, 2010.

  1. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    I still don't get that. Requirement was to replace 400 or so mix of Mig 27 and Mig 21. Mig 21 was to be replaced by LCA and Mig 27 by #MMRCA.
    That is still the case rite ? What changed? 14 sq of LCA requirement and 7 sq of Rafale = 400 aircrafts.
     
  2. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    IAF needs 45 sqns, it has just 33 sqns which includes about 125 Mig-21 Bison and over 80 Mig-27s. LCA will just replace present lot of Mig-21s and Mig-27s. Even if we induct 12 sqns of Rafale, we will just be meeting the required 45sqn strength. But in between we have an attrition rate of 6-8 aircraft every year. This means that by 2027, we wud have lost 60-80 aircraft. Plus some Jags will need replacement. Only post 1996 Jags are going to be upgraded which means a total of 65-70 Jags out of 125 in service today. The Su-30MKI line in Nashik will start upgrading older SU-30MKI to super SU-30MKI standard.
    From where will IAF raise additional aircraft to make up for 60-80 attrition and 60 odd Jags replacement? We will need additional 6-7 sqns of another aircraft. FGFA will start coming in after 2027 and will only replace Mig-29s and M2Ks from 2030 onwards.
     
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  3. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    There was never 14 sq of LCA, it was always 6, 2 sq of Mk1 and 4 of Mk1A. You read what Raha has said, 6 sq of LCA between 2025-28. 120+ aircraft in total. Rafale requirement is 9 squadrons, out of which 7 are assured.

    Now there's a requirement for a new light aircraft because Mk2 will not be ready anytime soon. ADA/HAL won't be able to deliver 12 squadrons of LCA before 2027. So minimum numbers for this new aircraft will be 5 squadrons. Production of the aircraft will switch to finish the navy Mk2 orders and the export market.

    IAF attempted to have more LCAs made by a private company, but no one was interested.
     
  4. Ved Mishra

    Ved Mishra Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    The only logic I could derive is that Gripen will be inducted. Nothing else really seems plausible. Even ordering 100 more Rafales and inducting 120 Tejas will not be sufficient to make up for 45 sdn. Probably Gripen will be another MII other than Rafale. May be 50% offsets from both deals will make our aerospace base more complete.
    Or may be I am wrong
     
  5. TickTickIndian

    TickTickIndian BANNED BANNED

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    Can't you use the clause of IDDM to force the govt. to buy LSA from you??
     
  6. BON PLAN

    BON PLAN Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Why? Why don't you make all on your own Tejas? A second or a third line???
     
  7. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    IAF attempted to have more LCAs made by a private company, but no one was interested.
     
  8. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Lets start by listing what we know confirmed, Let us look things at squadron level. (Attrition is taken in account in 18-20 planes per sq numbers )
    • 14 sq MKI
    • 3 sq Mig 29 + 3 sq M2000 + 3 sq jag D 3 (AMCA will replace these)
    • 3 sq jag D1 (will be replaced by FGFA from 2027 )
    • 6 sq LCA
    • 2 sq Rafale
    Total - 34 sq

    Possible confirmed/accepted additions :
    • 4-5 sq Rafale
    Total - 38 sq

    Number of sq to reach sanctioned strength of 42 is 3-4 sq. (12-13 sq of light fighters if we consider total 45 )

    What is the need for new LWF here ? Doubling the production of LCA mk1A from 2021-22 can easily fulfill the requirement.

    Following arguments are taken in to account by current and previous IAF chiefs.

    UPA 2 has repeatedly stated requirement of 300+ LCAs for IAF. But after this DM took charge things suddenly changed and he started making statements about importing new light weight fighter. If LCA mk1A will be ready by 2021 and it fulfills every requirement IAF then What is the need for importing ? What changed?

    IAF never requested Mk2, it was Navy's idea. Even if we took in navy orders we can fulfill total order of 200 mk1A + 40 NLCA by 2029 (240/32=7.5). Our priority is not export but avoiding import.

    Wrong, L&T was interested but HAL was not ready to share. But things has changed. @PARIKRAMA can fill in.
    • We want to increase our production to 16 LCA a year. In the past, HAL would have added a third (assembly) line to create a capacity of 24 planes a year. But we don’t want to do it now; we want the industry people out there to come up with it. As for the ‘Make in India’ initiative, it is an opportunity for the Indian industry and they can make components and supply to us.

      Source: http://www.vccircle.com/infracircle...cturing-hindustan-aeronautics-t-suvarna-raju/
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2016
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  9. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    IN will order only 6 Mk1 for training. They have no interest in the Mk1 versions. Even the navy's Mk2 will be larger than IAF's Mk2.

    I know about HAL. The companies don't want to compete with HAL. That's a major reason why they didn't want to take up IAF's offer.

    Anyway, as for your reply to Vstol, we won't reach 42 squadrons by 2027 without a second line. So it's not just the number of squadrons we are ordering, it's also the time frame when they start coming in. HAL's ability to double LCA production is all hot air. They need to get to 16/year first, which they won't until 2021.

    We will take 23 years to get 13.5 squadrons of MKI. Now we need 20 squadrons in 10 years. So the work's cut out for us.
     
  10. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    By NLCA i mean mk2, which they what 40. IAF don't want mk2 only improved mk1 which is A version.

    Companies will jump in when they have guaranteed orders in hand. which IAF or MoD never did. Now that HAL is ok with shearing production line that would be the next step.

    16 per year line will be ready by 2018, but Mk1A is not.

    Nasik line started production in 2003-04 and it will finish by 2019. That too was 12-13 per year.

    Please argue with sources and numbers.
     
  11. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Once LCA MK1A comes online and proves its worth, there will be more orders for it rising to over 300 over a period of 20 yrs starting 2021.
     
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  12. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Bro, IAF guaranteed a 200 aircraft order for a $4B investment.

    HAL instead proposed to increase production from 8/year to 24/year, but right now it will be at 16/year. Any private industry today cannot think of competing with HAL. Look at their actual business, they have MKI, they will get FGFA, IUSAV and AMCA. Private companies cannot compete when they are looking forward to subcontracting work with HAL.

    AMCA and FGFA are both $30B+ business, LCA won't even cross 10B. Subcontracting work alone will be 80% of the FGFA/AMCA production, why will any private company lose so much business for a LCA contract?

    In the near future, HAL will get AVATAR also, which will go into hundreds of billions. No private company will want to spoil their relations with HAL for a 4B investment.

    Also, HAL has only proposed increasing production to 16/year. Actual ground work has to start. And it's meaningless to increase production to 16/year many years earlier than when it is required, that's a waste of resources. We will get 40Mk1 by 2020, so our first 16/year delivery will happen from Mk1A onwards. That's also why Raha gave the delivery date as 2025-28.

    As I have always said, best case scenario is we only induct a lot of Rafales and LCAs, both 20+ a year, and no other single engine jet, and end their production for the IAF once FGFA and AMCA hit FRP. That gives a 10 year window for production, at best 15 years.

    Next best is a lot of Rafales and a combination of LCA and LSA.

    The worst is we end up with Rafale, LCA and Gripen/ F-16.

    We are making only 140 jets in India, from 2000-2019.

    The remaining came from Russia, that's from 1996 to 2015. Total = 132

    So if we could barely produce 140 jets over a 19 year period, you know how much investment we will need between 2016 and 2027 for 400 jets.
     
  13. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    At that time HAL and MoD was not in the same boat.

    So ,are you saying C265,LWF,Rafale MII,N-LUH will not happen because of HAL ? Oh please.

    Also explain how is sharing LCA order with HAL with their approval is competition ? Is there any condition in DTTI to limit subcontracting to SMEs?

    Is'nt the same thing i was saying ? mk1A is not ready till 2021 and HAL can make 16/yr from 2018 but no point. Raha is the same guy pitching new LWF, It is in his interest to delay LCA induction. Our DM is the only reason for mk1A orders.

    Good , we are on the same page here.
     
  14. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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  15. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    The Mk1A concept is pretty old. The Israelis first offered the AESA back in 2012 for the Jaguar and Tejas.

    Dude, stuff that you hear in the media and stuff that's happening inside is very different. HAL and MoD were always on the same boat. IAF had way too many doubts, they wanted to ensure Rafale was coming before they committed to LCA.

    None of those really affect HAL. HAL got the LCA, FGFA and AMCA, so they had no choice but to allow a private company take Rafale, all upon IAF's insistence. They won't let go of LCA, no chance. It has very good export prospects, especially the Mk2.

    Basically what happened is HAL did not want to let go of Rafale, through MMRCA. To compensate, Parrikar convinced the IAF to choose the Mk1A concept instead of waiting for Mk2. So that way HAL got their order for 80 more LCAs and Dassault+Reliance got the Rafale. So all parties are happy.

    Now another private company cannot put its hands in the HAL's basket, HAL won't allow it. Also the risk factor with LCA is very high, it is a development project. No company with money to lose is interested in developing an aircraft, even Vstol said the same about his LSA.

    All the other aircraft you mentioned, HAL has assured work on all of them. Even they know they can't produce as much as the armed forces's demand. So that makes it irrelevant.

    Also LWF, and to a certain extent, Rafale are small projects compared to FGFA and AMCA. Both jets are over $200M in fly away costs. And multiple variants will be made, just like Brahmos is, so these are 40 year programs versus 15 for LWF and Rafale. So any private industry will try to build relations with HAL, not compete with them. C-295, N-LUH, LWF, Rafale etc are not competing with HAL for orders.

    HAL doesn't want to lose their leverage on major projects.

    Incorrect. Delaying tactics is contrary to what's happening on the ground. If the IAF wanted to delay the LCA, they would have stuck to the Mk2 program, not picked the Mk1A so quickly.

    The Mk1 isn't a 'fighter' aircraft. So you can't expect IAF to order that.

    HAL can't make 16 jets a year in 2018, that's hot air. They will start the process of expanding only in 2018, that is after they have the 8/year line performing at full capacity. In fact, even the Mk1A's delivery in 2021 can be questioned, first delivery may happen only much later if you go by ADA/HAL's track record.

    But the best plans don't always work out. That's why I've even talked of 3 MMRCA programs, one for Rafale with direct purchases from French lines so IAF gets their minimum of 90 jets. Second for a twin engine jet, that's either the PAK FA line or SH line and a 3rd line for the Gripen or LSA.

    In fact, with the way LSA is structured, if it succeeds, then we won't need any other jet for MII, only LSA is enough. Even LCA can be shut down, let alone Rafale or Gripen.
     

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