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Mega Thread-India Pakistan Nuke Scenario..NFU/massive Retaliation/ decapitating strikes/scenarios

Discussion in 'Indian Military Doctrine' started by nik141993, Mar 19, 2017.

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Should India abandon its ‘no first use’ nuclear policy?

Poll closed Jul 19, 2017.
  1. Yes

    21 vote(s)
    31.3%
  2. No

    15 vote(s)
    22.4%
  3. Should keep an ambigious Policy

    19 vote(s)
    28.4%
  4. Threat Specefic Policy

    12 vote(s)
    17.9%
  1. The Lockean

    The Lockean 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Yes.

    With linkage to Satellite and P8I surveillance system. (For tracking and updating)

    All data being collated and analysed at Maritime Domain Awareness Center (or something like that) at City X in India.
     
  2. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    That much accuracy would be needed for precision targeting, but I do not think that a dart could go that wildly off course with small errors. LEO orbit start at 160 Km altitude. Let's say this kinetic bombardment system is orbiting at 200Km altitude. At that altitude, it has to deflect by a healthy 121 degree to miss so much that it hits Delhi while aiming for Lahore. For a second of deflection, it would lose its mark by 55 meter. So millisecond level accuracy is required, but it would not go wildly off path because of that. And atmosphere start becoming dense only at 30 Km altitude, and before that it would not start heating up and could be guided by normal guidance system improving accuracy.


    And weaponized space would be a great asset as kinetic energy weapons could not be in intercepted by BMDs, though they are not area effect weapon like nuclear so could not be used against spread out targets like cities or military concentrations. They have immense energy, but all of it is delivered in small area making them even better than nukes at penetrating bunkers. Other weapons would include space based lasers to zap missiles.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2017
  3. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Average ground-track repeatability can be achieved by having an orbital period which is a rational fraction of a day.
    The value selected for the draconic period, P, (time between two ascending node passages) is 11/167 days resulting in a repetition cycle of 11 days and 167 orbits in the repeat, [2].
    If only a two-body potential is considered (J0, J1), the period of an elliptical orbit depends only on the size of the semi-major axis, aJ1, this provides a preliminary estimation of

    [​IMG]

    with GM⊕ as the Earth’s gravitational coefficient. If we expand the geo-potential to the J2 zonal term (assuming an Earth’s mass distribution that is symmetric with respect to the axis of rotation), and neglect the eccentricity (assuming a circular orbit), then
    [​IMG]

    where R⊕ is the Earth equatorial radius and
    [​IMG]

    is the regression of the right ascension of the ascending node [4], whose size is imposed by the sunsynchronicity requirement. Under our preliminary geopotential (J2) assumption the time-derivative of Ω, (3), depends only on the size of semi-major axis, (1)-(3), and on the inclination, iJ2, thus
    [​IMG]

    Assuming that a given point, S (e.g. separation point), is part of the reference orbit at a given time, TS (e.g. separation time), the remaining elements can be easily calculated by means of spherical geometry and basic assumptions, [5]. Given the latitude, ϕ, and the flight direction, sign (positive to the North),
    [​IMG]

    is the argument of latitude for the given point. The flight time from S to the next ascending node (A.N.) can be expressed by a fraction of the orbital period. Based on the Earth rotation, the longitude shift of the A.N. is given by
    [​IMG]

    Again by means of spherical geometry, the longitude difference, ∆λ, between A.N. and S is determined as
    [​IMG]

    Given the longitude of S, λ (in hours), the node crossing longitude can be calculated by λ N = λ − ∆λ + ∆λ N .

    Finally, for a given date, the right ascension of the A.N. results from [​IMG]

    where GMST is the Greenwich mean sidereal time and tUT1 is the mean solar time. Table 1 shows a preliminary set of mean orbital elements calculated by equations (1)- (9) for a launch date at 2006/04/06 and a separation point S = (ϕ ,λ) = (-0.14°, 52.66°).

    [​IMG]

    As soon as the zonal terms up to J4 are included, the analytical formulation is better replaced by a Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) numerical propagator, [6]. The J2-elements calculated so far are used as input mean elements to the SGP4 drag-free propagation (the air drag is zero). In particular, the analytical expression for the semi-major axis and inclination corrections, (2)- (3), is replaced by the following numerical formulation. Latitude, ϕ, and longitude, λ, are assumed to be linear functions of a and i:
    [​IMG]

    So on and so forth, Lot of calculations are guess work based on models prior to 2003,
    The GRACE Gravity Model 01 (GGM01) was released on July 21, 2003. This model was estimated with 111 days of in-flight data (K-band, attitude and accelerometer data) gathered during the commissioning phase of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, which was launched on March 17, 2002. This model is between 10 to 50 times more accurate than all previous Earth gravity models at the long and medium wavelengths. This improvement has been possible by the measurement of the inter-satellite range-rate which is itself very sensitive to the Earth gravity field. In the resulting gravity model, GGM01S, much more detail is clearly evident in the Earth's geophysical features, [7]. The GGM01S field was estimated to degree and order 120

    So Calculation of a non maneuverable dart depends on lot of co-efficient which are guess/estimated work. Can we test them to draw up a fix calculation yes but only for a short while.


    Anyways simpler calculation would be
    [​IMG]



    That is why i suggested for Maneuverable Darts.

    Please if you would be kind enough to provide me the calculation of your derived 55m accuracy. Thanks
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2017
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  4. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    My calculations were pretty simple. Since deflection stated here was fraction of millisecond, I just applied arc to radius formula as at such small deflections, approximations could be made. Thus for altitude of 200Km and angle of 1 second (converted to radian), arc (which could approximate ground deflection) come out to be 55m.

    Afterall, the point was only to demonstrate that hitting Delhi ,when aiming for Lahore, is practically impossible, except in case of gargantuan incompetency.
     
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  5. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Point taken, atleast India should try and test these Theories to have viable options for future.
    As you said projectiles interception is nearly impossible. Kinetic Energy generated will outweigh any Nuke proposals.
    Love your way of thinking. Great future.
     
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  6. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    It is not just that space based kinetic energy weapons could not be intercepted, but that they would provide just minutes of forewarning before striking. Tradition WMDs need to be moved out their storage locations and prepped up before firing, thus providing some warning before launch and some even after launch. If Pakistanis know that India has weapons which would barely give them minutes of warning before striking, and could take out their bunkers, SAMs and aircrafts on ground instantly, it would put them under sever psychological stress and would make them think twice before doing ant hanky panky terrorist business. These weapons orbiting above Pakistan sky is goin to give sleepless nights to Pakistani generals. Though they do not have as much potential to kill as nukes ,even though they have the energy as they deliver that energy on a very small area, and does not have secondary effects that nukes have.

    India should have a plan to develop such weapons. This is a very rudimentary weapon,technologically, if you could place it in orbit (which would be difficult as it may weight upto 50 Tonnes and even GSLV has capacity of placing only 8 Tonnes in 600Km orbit). For these weapons, we have to develop high payload, low ceiling rockets.
     
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  7. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    There was a discussion in past few pages on how many people nukes would kill based on their direct ,primary and secondary, effects. But it should also be noted that a lot of people would also die due to chaos and breakdown of order and logistics lines that happen due to nuclear strikes. Recently, DoD of USA conducted a study whose results were that upto 90% of USA's population could die in a nuclear war if EMP blasts knock out whole of US power grid as it would put all hospitals, cold storages, and other communications and logistics components out of commission.

    Granted carnage in India and Pakistan would not be as great because these countries have not yet got dependent on long logistics supply chain and even whole of countries are not electrified, but there would be significant casualties due to breakdown of supply chains to cities and general public order.
     
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  8. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    I think this Report will provide a better understanding Space DEW's etc.
    http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2011/RAND_MR1209.pdf

    Rod of God secret space weapon analysis: Precision-guided munition calculations show it's possible to strike almost any target on Earth from orbit with 3-4 tons of TNT explosive equivalent

    This link provide already tested and worked out analysis on RoG.

    Modular Space based weapons are the best bet as can be constructed in stages.
     
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  9. Vyom

    Vyom Captain REGISTERED

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    umm this article :

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...26/11-terror-strikes/articleshow/57278709.cms

    Public information is otherwise. But I think I have a clue, Plus we need access to Fishhook laid from Japan to Andaman to truly form a .. err.. watertight arrangement. IMAC and NC3I interlinking has been finished... but I don't have conclusive info on seabed based sensors.
     
  10. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    @Lockean has decided not to spill the details but we not only have full coverage of sub surface but also we keep a plot of each and every ship which enters IOR from the same operations centre.
     
  11. Vyom

    Vyom Captain REGISTERED

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    Anecdotal reference is at best avoidable. Integrated Shelters do not translate into functional devices.

    However Your case might stand IF :
    1. We have severely under reported (by atleast twice order of magnitude) the production of weapons grade plutonium from our centrifuges.
    2. We already had a working and tested Miniaturized detonation device much before 1986, given by a friend of ours.
    3. If we had devices for air delivery and not miniaturized, What age we were living in ? WW2 ?
     
  12. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Of course the PRC won't ever do any nuclear strike on us.... Neither will we do one on them.....

    It's between India and Pakistan....
    The 'Titanuim Dart'...
    How much does it weigh...!?
    What is it's volume !?
    Can it be assembled in orbit !?
    What is it's lifespan !?

    It sounds big and heavy....Do we have such a lift capability !?
    And....Also....It will be susceptible to ASAT right...!? Pakistan doesn't have an ASAT system yet....But they might as well develop one....China has one already...
     
  13. The Lockean

    The Lockean 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Two places only

    Malacca: but shallow for Subs

    Sunda: the most common route into IOR. Beyond them, in south east asia ... we have 'cooperative' arrangements

    I think beyond this will be imprudent.
     
  14. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Especially worried about Hindutva plus nukes', say Pakistani experts

    [​IMG]
    PTIIndia's nuclear-capable Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile. (Photo: PTI)
    HIGHLIGHTS
    • A retired Pakistani general said Islamabad has “always been sceptical about Indian 'no first use' (NFU) claims”
    • An MIT expert this week flagged that India might be okay with a pre-emptive first use of nukes against Pakistan for defensive purposes


    NEW DELHI: Pakistan's nuclear experts are worried, of course, about signals emerging from New Delhi that it might be reconsidering its 'no first use' of nukes policy.

    They are, however, especially worried this change is "happening against the backdrop of (the) extremist Hindutva agenda of the Bharatiya Janata Party government", said a retired Pakistani general still associated with Islamabad's own nuclear strategy, Dawn reported today.






    India's rethink "is the latest in a series of provocative actions," said retired general Ehsan ul Haq, a former chairman of Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    A Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) expert of Indian origin was the first to flag a possible change in India's thinking. That is, New Delhi moving away from its policy of 'no first use' (NFU) and carrying out a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Pakistan if it believed Pakistan was going to use nuclear weapons against it.

    "India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India's opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theatre," Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategist from MIT, said at a seminar in Washington on Monday.

    The retired Pakistani general said Islamabad has "always been sceptical about Indian NFU claims."

    Narang's recent comments have "only vindicated Pakistan's position that India-declared NFU policy is a sham", general Haq reportedly said, adding "he's happy that the Indians are now themselves exposing their claims", Dawn wrote.

    India's recent steps "from admission of interference in erstwhile East Pakistan to references to Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, scuttling the Saarc summit, escalation along the Line of Control, claims of surgical strikes, diplomatic manoeuvring to isolate Pakistan and domestic war hysteria had heightened tensions between the two countries," the retired Pakistani general added.

    At the same time, Haq said India was "challenging the credibility of Pakistan's nuclear deterrence through doctrinal as well as technological developments".

    Haq made these comments at the launch of a book, 'Learning to Live with the Bomb, Pakistan: 1998-2016', by Dr Naeem Salik, who's a former official of the Strategic Plans Division.

    Salik said India's changing nuclear strategy has kept Pakistani strategists on their toes.

    "We have not only got to study our side of the game, we also have to watch out what is happening on the other side so that we learn from there also and adapt and reform own processes as well," the author said.


    http://m.timesofindia.com/india/esp...ukes-strategy-vs-pak/articleshow/57957975.cms

    Now even their generals are rattled, good.
     
  15. flanker143

    flanker143 Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    are u suggesting that weapons should be developed based on G. I. Joe movies !! cuz afaik the weapon you are talking about is from that movie.

    lol u remind me of Admiral General Haffaz Aladeen !!!
     

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