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Mega Thread-India Pakistan Nuke Scenario..NFU/massive Retaliation/ decapitating strikes/scenarios

Discussion in 'Indian Military Doctrine' started by nik141993, Mar 19, 2017.

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Should India abandon its ‘no first use’ nuclear policy?

Poll closed Jul 19, 2017.
  1. Yes

    21 vote(s)
    31.3%
  2. No

    15 vote(s)
    22.4%
  3. Should keep an ambigious Policy

    19 vote(s)
    28.4%
  4. Threat Specefic Policy

    12 vote(s)
    17.9%
  1. kaku

    kaku Major IDF NewBie

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    People watch sci fi movies and assume such weapons as simple as building a tunnel in J&K.

    1) To understand the mechanics, if someone just drop the Kinetic Weapons from a orbit, that wont fall on earth, that Kinetic Weapon need velocity in retrograde vector to deorbit and start to fall toward earth. So, this is clear Kinetic Weapon wont fall with orbital velocity.

    2) I researched also, to deorbit a Kinetic Weapon, the best option is boosters on Kinetic Weapon. One can even think of railgun, but that create a recoil over whole station, and then station have to fire its own engine in prograde vector to remain in orbit.

    3) For establishing a planetary level system one going to need atleast 4-10 such stations at GEO, we all know benefits of GEO. And including for gaining velocity for Kinetic Weapon.

    4) One have to solve drag problem, before deployment. And how this enter in atmosphere, too steep? How one decide entry corridors for Kinetic Weapon so it wont loose its velocity. And also going to need new material which survive reentry with such velocity.

    5) Lets be clear, these stations going to be complex, not somekind of satellite. Atleast going to need 3 men crew in each station. And then replenishment missions for each station, which also skyrocket the cost.

    And I can go on and on, but such projects atleast require trillion of dollars of investment. And these problems are not even 1% of actual problems. Even for solving velocity issues, and where to fire a weapon at which vector.

    BTW, While the same job can be done by a nuclear tipped hypersonic vehicle.
     
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  2. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    @kaku, it depends on the orientation of the firing station. If it fires the projectile backwards, the recoil will propel it forward and the projectile speed will reduce to allow it to deorbit.
     
  3. kaku

    kaku Major IDF NewBie

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    I am unable to understand these equations. Please explain. You properly only talking about Sun Synchronous orbit, why anyone deploy such weapon in sun synchronous. And if I am understood correctly, these equations are for a satellite to maintain a specific orbit. And how to specify revisit time.

    I am unable to understand your POV.

    These are projectile equations. I am unable to understand your POV.
     
  4. kaku

    kaku Major IDF NewBie

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    Yes indeed, if you fire Kinetic Wep in retrograde vector, recoil vector will be in prograde.

    But this increase the orbit, and dysync the station from GEO. To again establish that orbit, one have to fire engine in retrograde.
     
  5. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    That's correct but the problem of deorbit for projectile is solved and the projectile can also be fired in such a manner that it results in forward and upward motion for the launch station, which will correct the effect of increased speed by raising the orbit.
     
  6. kaku

    kaku Major IDF NewBie

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    Forward and upward motions are not possible, that change inclination, and maybe increase or decrease Ap & Pe, according to which the motion is in which vector. For correcting this, station have to make multiple burns.

    And to deorbit the Kinetic Weapon, this almost loose 1/3rd of its velocity from GEO ( if target is behind earth from station POV, and Kin Wep make a reentry on opposite side of earth), and it looses velocity which it gained during sub orbital flight when it make a reentry, if Kinetic Weps boosters not fired.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2017
  7. Vyom

    Vyom Captain IDF NewBie

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    It will be but safe to establish any sub in IOR is taken care of I guess.
     
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  8. kaku

    kaku Major IDF NewBie

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    [​IMG]

    And as for escorts, many here asked proof. Here it is .

    From where this number came from? Obviously Exercises and wargames.

    This only reduce to 3 when SFC induct Nirbhay with SU-30s.
     
  9. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Each dart would weights around 9 Tonnes, which is the maximum lift capacity for GSLV for LEO. I have mentioned this in one of the post that we would need better rockets to put up such a system in space.


    This system was outlined as potential space based conventional weapon by RAND in 2002 and I read about it in popular science mag. I do not watch movies.
    Won't most of these problems be solved by having a braking system for each individual rod independently, or a bundle of rod that need to be fired at once. There be one rod per system and each rod have its own braking systems and when it has to be fired, the satellite would be braked causing it to fall and burn while Titanium rods dart towards earth. No need to maintain a station. OR you could have a bundle of rods loosely assembled together and whenever a rod has to be fired, it detached from the bundle and is independently braked.

    I was suggesting solutions that may not need nuclear bomb. Nukes could do any work that a conventional weapon could do at cheaper cost.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2017
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  10. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Our country declared in 1999 that we have an ERW(enhanced radiation weapon) in our nuclear arsenal, which is a full scale neutron bomb. The yield of this device is same as that of a 15KT fission device, less destructive than MT class weapons but 40-60 % more radiation force multiplier. To put it into perspective, a normal fission device puts about 5% of deadly radiation, but a neutron bomb will put about 40-60% of enhanced deadly radiation that would kill any organic species within few Km. In layman, it would kill only humans and animals thus less colletral damage. It's a clean weapon too, since nuetron is bombarded, it reacts to other isotopes in atmosphere quickly and the area after few months becomes free from radiation which means you can literally walk there, grow some plants and trees, unlike aftermath of a fission device detonation. And this I suppose is the plan.
     
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  11. YarS

    YarS Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Even after "usual" fission (Teller-Ulam) bomb's blast you can walk after few days, especially after air blast.
    As for me, neutron bomb is just a wasting of plutonium and uranium. Biological objects, especially soldiers can be protected from radiation with radioprotection drugs.
    [​IMG]
    Did Indian and Pakistan soldiers have such medi-kits?
     
  12. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Where are pakistani nuclear weapons stored?












    8 Answers
    Updated Feb 10
    [​IMG]
    My name is not important but I have the answer to this question. I have given the location at the end of this answer but before knowing the location there are few important things to know. First and foremost it must be realized that even though the Pakistani forces are incapable to provide security to their own citizens today, they have however made sure that their nuclear missile bases are secured and safe. Several of these bases have been rounded with 4–5 fences and the facilities are often underground.

    Now to know the location of Pakistan’s nuclear bases it is essential to understand the country’s nuclear doctrine (i.e to understand in what way does Pakistan intend to use it’s nuclear weapons if the situation arises).

    PAKISTAN’s NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

    The reason behind the acquisition of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons was the need to make the price of attacking Pakistan so high that it’s enemy India would not launch a full scale war against it. This provides Pakistan with a very high threshold to export terrorists across the border/LoC into India without being worried about any major military offensive from the Indian side.

    Pakistan knows it very well that if India declares a full fledged war against Pakistan, it is incapable of defeating or even stopping the Indian advance forces in today’s world. Therefore it needs to ensure that if overwhelming Indian forces march into Pakistan, they can use tactical nuclear weapons against them to stop them. Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller low-yield weapons which are not powerful enough to destroy a city but powerful enough to decapitate any advancing forces (in this case an Indian Strike Corps)

    Now using tactical nuclear weapons against Indian forces is a very tricky situation as the nuclear policy of India dictates it crystal clear that India reserves the right to retaliate punitively(using mega-yield nuclear weapons against cities) if any country chooses to strike it’s territory or it’s forces with nuclear weapons.

    The deployment of Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons is in the hope that if Pakistan attacks Indian Invading Forces with tactical nuclear weapons on Pakistani Soil then maybe somehow the world would imply pressure on India to stop it from a PUNITIVE RETALIATION.

    This assumption is not entirely absurd, because since India’s own territory has not been attacked with nuclear weapons, the world might have some grounds to stop India from retaliating with a full-scale nuclear attack. The world might try to bargain non-retaliation from India in exchange for sanctions against Pakistan. This might also work since any punitive retaliation against Pakistan comes with a possibility of a similar counter retaliation from Pakistan as well(this time against Indian cities with higher yield weapons). Yes India has an Anti Ballistic Missile Defense system but the mere possibility of even 1% of it failing against a real nuclear threat is going to make Nuclear Retaliation a very difficult decision for Indian leadership unless it’s own territory has been nuked.

    However, a lot depends on the leadership of the time in India and the general public mood of the time. So, if India chooses not to retaliate, Pakistan will be imposed with innumerable sanctions, diplomatic isolations, and international repercussions but PAKISTAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST. Also, India will loose it’s entire Strike Corps but not win the war. That might not go down well with the Indian people though.

    Therefore, there is also an equal possibility that India would not heed to the world and go ahead with it’s declared policy of MASS RETALIATION. Now, according to my present knowledge India is well aware of the information I am going to share below(regarding the locations of Pakistan’s Nuclear weapons) and India would try to ensure that in it’s first strike itself, it renders Pakistan incapable of a counter Mass Retaliation.

    Now, to ensure that this happens India is most likely going to use it’s Air Force or conventional/nuclear tipped Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles as they are one of the few weapons with India which Pakistan does not possess the capability to intercept. The range of BrahMos is 290 Kms.

    So following are the requirements that Pakistan has kept in mind while deploying it’s nuclear weapons.
    1.) It needs two types of nuclear weapons i.e tactical low-yield warheads(for initial retaliation against advancing enemy forces) as well as Strategic high-yield warhead(for counter retaliation to ensure Mutual Assured Destruction)

    2.) The low-yield warheads need to be deployed in forward border areas on shorter range ballistic missiles and forward airbases to ensure the shortest flight time to attack while the higher-yield strategic warheads need to be deployed away from borders on long range ballistic missiles to keep them out of range of Indian Air Force and BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.

    3.) The higher yield nuclear weapons to be well dug in to safeguard against any possible attacks from India.

    Now, if you see the actual nuclear deployment of Pakistan, this is pretty much what they have achieved.

    LOCATIONS OF NUCLEAR BASES OF PAKISTAN.

    1.) TACTICAL NUCLEAR DEPLOYMENT OF PAKISTAN

    1. GUJRANWALA (Near Lahore) 32 14 27 N x 74 04 23 E
      Construction b/w- March 2011 - August 2014
      Deployment - Nasr TELs(60Km) and Ghaznavi (400Km)
      Distance from International Border- 60Kms
      Status- Active
    [​IMG]
    • Two large hardened High Bay Garages (100x20m) with blast doors on the East and 5m wide exit doors on the west(below picture). Each garage is connected to the square launch platform with a 6m wide pathway
    [​IMG]
    • Most likely they can accommodate around 10 TELs (Transporter Erector Launcher)

      Tyre marks suggest that regular trials are conducted
    2. PANO AQIL (NEAR SUKKUR) 27 50 06 N x 69 09 28 E

    [​IMG]
    • Construction b/w 2010 - 2015
    • Deployment - Ghaznavi (400Kms)
    • Similar to Gujranwala but smaller facility
    • Distance from IB- 80–90Kms
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    3. PAF AIRBASE MASHROOR (NEAR KARACHI) 24 53 43 N x 66 55 39 E

    [​IMG]
    Recently constructed Operational Readiness Platform (ORP)

    • Constructed b/w 3/2014 - 3/2016
    • Construction- Hardened with RCC and Steel plates followed by RCC again. It contains an underground vault system together with Weapons Storage Bunker (WSB) connected with an underground passage of 30m
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    • Operational Aims-
      • To have nuclear weapons and related aircraft at operational readiness at all times.
      • Evade chances of India knowing if the weapon has been loaded or not.
      • Ensure survivability of weapons even after First Strike from India.
    • Deployments - Nuclear missile equipped Aircrafts which can take off at very short notice.
    • Distances - 600Kms from Ahmedabad, 900Kms from Mumbai and 1100Kms from Delhi.
    2.) STRATEGIC NUCLEAR DEPLOYMENT OF PAKISTAN (HIGH-YIELD WEAPONS)

    1. KORI UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR FACILITY 27 40 45 N x 66 56 23 E
    [​IMG]
    • Mountain excavated Nuclear Base(possibly with the help of Chinese Tunneling Technology) with three tunnel entrances.
    • Deployment of Medium Range Missiles
    • Status- Under Construction
    • Objective: To survive the first strike by the India and deliver counter-strikes on behalf of Pakistan
    • Located beyond the range of Indian BrahMos missiles.
    [​IMG]
    3.) PAKISTAN NUCLEAR WARHEAD STORAGE FACILITIES

    1. GADWAL URANIUM STORAGE FACILITY 33 49 10 N x 72 45 05 E

    [​IMG]
    • Heavily camouflaged facility with six bunkers with four layers of security fencing.
    • Location next to Gadwal Uranium Enrichment Facility
    • Facility is guarded by a DSG battalion
    • Second fence is guarded by ten concrete guard posts.
    • Six camouflaged bunkers storing either weaponized warheads or weapons grade enriched Uranium.
    [​IMG]
    2. PETARO NUCLEAR WARHEAD STORAGE FACILITY 25 32 55 N x 68 20 03 E

    [​IMG]
    • Highly sophisticated Warhead Storage Facility with modern support systems like MW Communication, Satellite/Missile tracking, Launch pads and infrastructure for a Brigade strength of troops including family accommodations.
    [​IMG]
    • Hardened Underground Bay with garages and heavy duty fork lifts concealing AC vents. The facility can store 50 to 2400 warheads depending on the method of storage.
    [​IMG]
    • Construction: Below the hardened concrete structure are four bays of 30x10m and four bays of 20x10m conected by 200x10m passage.
    • The compound also encloses a long range rifle firing range, Satellite/Missile tracking facility, Helipad and independent TELs showing readiness for deployment.
    • Dependent on Hyderabad Airbase for air cover.
    3. KHUZDAR WARHEAD STORAGE FACILITY 27 43 20 N x 66 37 27 E

    [​IMG]
    • Sophisticated underground warhead storage facility very similar to the one in Petaro in design.
    [​IMG]
    • Apart from Hardened Underground Facility, it has MW Communications, Launch Pads and infrastructure for regiment strength of troops. It has TELs near the garages and in-campus 300m firing range and obstacle course same as Petaro facility.
    • Missile tracking system is not observed here.
    [​IMG]
    • Construction: Under the hardened structure are two Y shaped storages with three bays each of 50x10m and 25x10m each. Six bays are interconnected with 200x10m passage.
    • It can store 46 to 2640 warheads (depending on the method of storage)
    So, if you carefully notice, the entire Eastern border of Pakistan with India is well within the range of the two forward Tactical Nuclear Bases of Gujranwala and Pano Aqil(given the range of Ghaznavi being 400Kms). So in case Indian Army Strike Corps attack Pakistan, it will wait till they enter Pakistani territory and then launch Tactical Nuclear Weapons from either Gujranwala or Pano Aqil hoping that the world will convince India not to retaliate.

    [​IMG]
    If however, India does retaliate with Nuclear attacks, the facilities at Petaro, Khuzdar and Mashroor will be used to launch further attacks. If for some reason, India manages to destroy these facilities before they attack, then Pakistan will use it’s mountain excavated KORI Nuclear Facility to launch long range ballistic missiles at Indian cities.

    If the Indian Navy Aircraft carrier blockades Karachi, then PAF Aircrafts from Mashroor Airbase equipped with Ra’ad missiles will be used to launch tactical nuclear missiles at the Indian Navy fleet.

    CONCLUSION: Pakistan has well defended it’s territory using tactical nuclear weapons and it has ensured that the price for Indian Forces to retaliate to the terrorists exported by Pakistan is so high that Indian Army would never launch a full scale attack on Pakistan. Any unthoughtful action on behalf of the Indians would cause them heavy damages.

    However, India has the capability to destroy all these facilities except the one at KORI at present as the KORI facility is out of range of the BrahMos missiles and is also located in the core of the mountains. If India can manage to sabotage all these facilities somehow before launching an all out war, Pakistan will be defenseless and could be easily defeated in less than 72 hours.

    This is because Pakistan has spent billions of dollars on the construction of these facilities and warheads and missiles. So much so, that it has left the country bankrupt without much to spend even on it’s Armed Forces. As per intelligence sources Pakistan can sustain to fight an all out war with India only for 4 days after which it would face severe ammunition, fuel and supply shortages.

    THE GAME IS SOMEHOW STILL IN INDIA’S COURT.

    Edit: The Brahmos' range is to be increased to 600 km as india has entered MTCR and the Russians have agreed. Also, a hypersonic Brahmos-II is in the works.

    EDIT: I have created a new untraceable ID on Quora where you may follow me if you want. I have a lot of information up my sleeves and would like to loose them all.

    >>> Ram <<< Read, upvote, share and then follow me here.

    https://www.quora.com/Where-are-pakistani-nuclear-weapons-stored

    @Levina @Abingdonboy @nair@MilSpec @Gessler @Robinhood Pandey @randomradio @vstol jockey @Hellfire @NS52 @BlackOpsIndia @Rain Man @Grevion @Nilgiri @GSLV Mk III @SrNair @dadeechi @Ankit Kumar 001 @kaku1 @Golden_Rule @IndiranChandiran @Lion of Rajputana @thesolar65 @Sathya @Butter Chicken @AbRaj @Agent_47 @bharathp @Aqwoyk @GuardianRED @PeegooFeng41 @Indx TechStyle @Ved Mishra @ni8mare @A_poster @Kalmuahlaunda @zebra7 @Marqueur @PARIKRAMA @OverLoad
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2017
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  13. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Furthering my post:

    Pakistan has a nuclear stockpile of between 130 and 140 nuclear warheads, according to a group of American scientists, whose tally is partially based on close scrutiny of satellite images and matches other recent estimates. Their report also reiterates that in violation of the US' guidelines, Pakistan has converted its F-16 fighter jets for use with nuclear weapons. In addition to this, "French-produced Mirage aircraft are widely assumed to be equipped to deliver the Raad air-launched cruise missile.''

    The report indicates that a detachment of Pakistani air force fighters capable of delivering nuclear warheads are housed at the Masroor Air Base west of Karachi which offers ''a large underground facility that is located inside a high-security area. The underground facility is possibly a command center."

    [​IMG]
    Pakistani's primary means of delivering nuclear weapons, however, are through cruise and ballistic missile systems. The report, titled "Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure", has used commercially-available satellite images to identify ten Pakistani facilities, including five missile garrisons and at least two air bases, which have been used to assemble and house nuclear missile launchers.

    Hans M Kristensen, a top scientist at FAS, said, ''Analysis of commercial satellite photos has identified features that suggest that at least five bases might serve a role in Pakistan's emerging nuclear posture. This includes army garrisons at Akro [Sindh], Gujranwala [Punjab], Khuzdar [Balochistan], Pano Aqil [Sindh], and Sargodha. A sixth base at Bahawalpur may be under construction. There is also a seventh base near Dera Ghazi Khan, but the infrastructure is very different and not yet convincing."

    [​IMG]
    The satellite images indicate the presence of vehicles associated with nuclear-capable missiles which can strike targets ranging from a relatively close distance of less than 100 kms to others of an intermediate range which can target most areas in India and employ technology and components transferred to Pakistan from China.

    The report also concludes that a string of facilities west of Islamabad, which comprise the Pakistani National Development Complex, are key to producing Shaheen-2 medium-range ballistic missile launchers and Babur ground-launched cruise missile launchers.

    [​IMG]
    The Pakistani National Development Complex which is located west of Islamabad.

    The report concludes that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal remains in a ''dynamic phase'' though Islamabad "might not intend to continue to increase its arsenal indefinitely but may soon reach the goal for the size of its full-spectrum deterrent.'' Essentially, that Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme is growing, meeting the country's requirements and acting as a full-fledged deterrent against India.

    Source:ndtvindia.com
     
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  14. zebra7

    zebra7 Captain FULL MEMBER

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    fanboyism at the best.

    Pakistan have 130-140 nuclear weapon LOL, and 15000 soldiers deployed to safe gaurd them

    another LOL

    Since nuclear warhead and Missiles are kept separated, and the time period required to mate both of them needs time, and then before firing missile needs preparation time period of several hours.

    another LOL

    A country who could not produce a moped engine, is building nuclear devices Or it is been supplied by some on else, and if someone supply them, they will keep the control in their hand, because the foolishness could be later on tracked back to the real source in front of the world.

    another LOL

    A country deployed tactical weapon named NASR which look 100% like ws-2, with same TEL and threatening Indian Strike Corp, without testing the miniature design, and without any Super computer for simulation fission, don't even care to prepare for the NBC protection gears and training, to take back the area wiped out back from the aggressor force.

    @PARIKRAMA @hellfire @OverLoad @Sancho

    How much nuclear bluff would you take, or did India shattered the nuclear bluff already, when Indian start pounding the PA during Kargil war, which was the gameplan of Musharaff was based on at that time.
     
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  15. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    India pulled their nuclear pants (bluff) down on 29th September 2016 when India conducted surgical strikes after Uri attack. During Kargil we restraint our attack on our side of borders.
     

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