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Mega Thread - The China Bogie : India-China Conflicts of Interest

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by NS52, Feb 26, 2017.

  1. NS52

    NS52 MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    On the 15th of this month, the premier of China made inspection visits of Tsinghua and Peking Universities in Beijing. Now the talk in the Chinese capital is the “rapid rise in the political status of Li Keqiang,” as one Chinese observer put it. Premier Li, says former official Liang Jing, “may become a strong challenger to Xi Jinping.”

    That is a lot to infer from a couple of stopovers at institutions of higher education, but political watchers in Beijing these days scrutinize Li’s every move.

    Li apparently lost political power soon after starting his term as premier in March 2013. Then, Xi, president of the state and general secretary of the Communist Party, usurped Li’s authority by elevating the role of two of the Party’s “leading groups,” the Central Leading Group for Comprehensive Deepening Reform and the Central Leading Group of Finance and Economic Affairs.

    As chairman of these shadowy bodies, Xi Jinping essentially ran the economy in the last few years, elbowing aside Li. Li, the head of the State Council, would normally be considered holder of the economics portfolio.

    For a while, Li almost disappeared from sight. “I asked a very well informed Chinese friend whether he expected Li to stay on as premier after the 19th Party Congress,” an acquaintance of mine wrote this month. “His quick answer was ‘Does it matter?’ ”


    Actually, it does. The Congress, which will be held late next year if traditional holds, promises to be one of the most important gatherings in the ruling party’s history. Observers are expecting the largest turnover in the Central Committee since the 9th Party Congress of 1969. At the 19th Congress there will be, for instance, the retirement of five of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the most important body in the Party. Of course, turnover at the top will cascade down through the organization’s hierarchy.

    Up until the beginning of this year, most analysts had expected Xi Jinping to fill the many open slots with loyalists and thereby finish the job of consolidating his position. After all, he had previously made great progress in pushing others to the sidelines of the political system. His so-called “anti-corruption” campaign had been extraordinarily effective in rooting out opponents and potential adversaries, jailing some and defanging others.

    All Chinese leaders “house clean.” Xi’s housecleaning was far more ferocious and of far greater duration than those of his predecessors. In view of his apparent success with this and other initiatives, virtually every analyst called Xi the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping—and many called him the most powerful since Mao.

    Now, however, there is talk that Xi might not last as leader beyond the 19th Congress.

    Xi has just had a couple of horrible months. March was particularly bad as his many enemies obviously felt strong enough to challenge him in public in extraordinary shows of defiance.

    For instance, the Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, his main instrument in the corruption campaign, in early March posted on its website a not-so-veiled attack on his authoritarianism, an essay titled “A Thousand Yes-Men Cannot Equal One Honest Advisor.” There was, in addition, a mysterious public call made by “loyal Party members” for Xi to resign, which somehow appeared on a semi-official website. The official Xinhua News Agency published an article calling Xi “China’s last leader.”


    As Thomas Vien, in a perceptive piece on the Stratfor site, writes, “Political resistance is now a tangible force in China.”


    At the same time, Xi’s predecessors came out of hiding, making public appearances. Russell Leigh Moses writes that the fact that these figures have surfaced is “a clear signal to their supporters that they remain ready to defend their political legacies against any efforts to undermine them.”


    Nonetheless, Moses does not think all the recent events amount to much. As he writes in the Wall Street Journal’s China Real Time Report, “solitary outbreaks of anger at Xi and his policies do not an organized political opposition make.”


    Xi’s opponents may not be organized, but they are almost everywhere to be found. It now appears that China’s president did not vanquish opponents; he just drove them underground. And they have emerged as his policies have floundered.

    Take the economy. Because Xi insisted that he be “Chairman of Everything,” he became accountable for everything, including the economy. As the economy faltered, he was criticized for its deteriorating performance. And as he was criticized, Li Keqiang began his remarkable comeback. Nobody, it seems, likes “Xiconomics” anymore.

    Xi and Li now appear to be locked in a widening struggle. “During Li’s opening speech at the National People’s Congress, there were more than 40 rounds of applause,” Willy Lam of the Chinese University of Hong Kong wrote to me last week. “Xi didn’t clap hands even once.” Not clapping when everyone else was doing so is a clear sign that the relations between the top two leaders is, as Lam notes, “extremely chilly.”

    A year ago, virtually everyone praised China leaders as “technocratic,” “pragmatic,” and “skillful.” Then came the botched response in the second week of July to the stock market crash and the still-inexplicable devaluation of the renminbi in the third week of August. Since then, policy responses have seemed, for the most part, ill-considered and perhaps as important, ill-timed.

    China’s economic challenges will become even more difficult as leaders face the consequences of the apparent abandonment of reform for debt-fueled growth. Feuding leaders, fighting for political life, are unlikely to propose and implement sound policy choices.

    The problem for Xi, Vien tells us, is that his remedy for China’s ailing economy—and for all other things—is the imposition of his decisions. Yet that demand for “absolute loyalty is roiling the Party. “If Xi fails to control the development of factional rifts in the Communist Party, the prospects for maintaining a coherent central government could be near impossible,” he writes. And if were to fail to convince others to submit to his rule, “the restoration of effective central government control could take years, if not decades.”

    China does not have decades to solve its economic problems. It has a year, maybe two, at most.
     
  2. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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  3. Levina

    Levina Colonel on stilettos Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

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    Very interesting article. :tup:

    China lives a life of illusion...illusion of progress. The communist party has over the years mastered the art to suppress but not to lead. Xi Vs Li is a reminder of the same.



    @anant_s @Marqueur @Roybot @Rain Man and others

    Aye aye sir.
    It is now our pinned thread of the week.
     
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  4. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I think this sums it all, opposition to Xi is more like a hearsay and nothing strong. They may not like him but Xi from the day 1 is consolidating power into his hands. The amount of power he got in a system like China will quash even an uprising pretty easily, this is not even an opposition.

    This looks more like a case of storm in a tea cup. If you start calling Xi not clapping a sign of opposition in a system like China, its exaggeration. Disagreements are normal everywhere, they may not show it in China but every ambitious man want to grab power and try the moment they get chance but still very interesting insights.

    If we can do things in our country with simple majority China is way too simple for the President to implement whatever he plans. Xi's China has performed so far significantly better than the most optimistic projections, he really contained the slowdown infact they are progressing pretty well.
     
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  5. dadeechi

    dadeechi Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    China is part of G2 and has support of US.

    As long as US supports China, there is no threat to China.

    US would continue to support both China and Pakistan to confront Russia.
     
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  6. PeegooFeng41

    PeegooFeng41 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Biggest problem with likes of China is that, in general, you simply do not have enough reliable data to ever make any comment. Chinese government is, I believe, a bureaucracy on steroids and it is a dense and opaque bureaucracy. Like any bureaucracy, decisions flow in top-down manner. What data we see for claiming that China is doing fairly well, comes from the same bureaucracy. Xi claimed in 2015-16 that Chinese growth will be around 7.0% and 6.9% it was. Makes you wonder if he is clairvoyant or there are cogs in the bureaucracy who are making it true, at-least in the numbers.

    With so much closed nature of government and their leaders, these kind of curtsey calls only offer a window into the minds of these leaders. People often make fun of Democracy for being suboptimal for growth and fraught with corruption. Well, hyper-beaurcracies like Chinese government are really good when you have really good leaders like Deng Xioping. When it falls into hands of likes of Mao it falls so fast that no one has a chance to foresee it coming. USSR comes to mind and I am not talking about communism, just an opaque system. Good thing with democracy is that it forces leaders to talk to their populace about what and why they are doing.
     
  7. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    keep your friends close and your enemies closer - this is what G2 may be meant for?
     
  8. Rain Man

    Rain Man 2nd Lieutant POLITICAL ANALYST

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    Communist parties are good in tackling dissent within the party, waiting for the day when dissent will come from outside the party in a significant way. I am looking forward to their economic slowdown, job cuts, massive erosion of common people's investments in real estate, etc., and how do they handle common people under such circumstances. A political turmoil in China will give us window to catch up and counter their aggressive foreign policy with greater strength.
     
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  9. sangos

    sangos Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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  10. IndiranChandiran

    IndiranChandiran Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Not only him , a lot of western geo strategists , economists , journalists & "China specialists " have been getting their jollies predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy with all the attendant consequences , since 2011-12.

    Just that the Chinese haven't obliged. Which prompted all those gloom & doom prophets to postpone their apocalyptic predictions to 2020.

    I get the same guilty pleasure from reading such articles that I derive from watching porn.

    Or to quote my boss for a more sanitised version - kab maregi saasu , kab bahenge aasu? - most Indian daughter in laws ardent wish .
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
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  11. dadeechi

    dadeechi Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    For all the rhetoric,

    1) US & EU are China's largest business partners

    2) US unequivocally supports China's one china policy

    China keeps tensions high in ECS and SCS which in turn makes ASEAN nations to run to the West with their military procurement orders.

    ASEAN nations are caged pigeons.
     
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  12. Golden_Rule

    Golden_Rule Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    No doubt, this is a sure design. To create a monster to keep threatening smaller entities; these smaller entities will never be destroyed, because in destruction the predator will lose its prey

    Like it is said that on one hand the USSR and US engaged in cold after WWII and through intentionally designed sabotage channels latest technology was supplied to USSR.

    Same has happened with China. The US and Europe have created the monster called China.

    But as we have observed since the last recession, several of the global conditions have been created which have reached beyond critical mass and they all are being planned to burst at the same time - probably causing unimaginable havoc to humanity world-wide. Starting with QE1, QE2 ... QEn by all nations, the sovereign debt bubbles of US & China, housing bubbles, credit bubbles, unemployment, PIIGS, Terrorism, DNA engineering, proliferation of pesticides, preservatives and GMOs in the food cycles, Japan's stagflation, global commodity deflation, over capacity buildup, China's GDP figures fraud ... and many more, all of this will blow up simultaneously to cause unimaginable destruction and chaos.

    So, neither the US people not the Chinese people will gain ... It is the few powerful elite who will survive.

    So I am not at all sure what the US, EU or China mean? Because more than 95% of people are sure to get hurt by looking at what is coming.
     
  13. defc0n

    defc0n 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Beijing: China on Saturday warned India against allowing the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh, saying it would cause "serious damage" to the bilateral ties and peace in the "disputed" border region.

    "China is gravely concerned over information that India has granted permission to the Dalai to visit Arunachal Pradesh," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told the media here.


    China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of Tibet and routinely objects to any visits by top leaders, officials and diplomats to the area.

    China had also aired similar concerns in October last year when India granted permission to the Tibetan spiritual leader to visit Arunachal Pradesh at the invitation of the state government.

    The Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh is expected to take place this year.

    "China is strongly opposed to the Dalai visiting disputed areas," Geng said.

    "China's position on the eastern section of China-India border dispute is consistent and clear. The Dalai clique has long been engaging in anti-China separatist activities and its record on the border question is not that good," he said.

    Geng said China expressed its concern to India through formal channels.

    "India is fully aware of the seriousness of the Dalai issue and thesensitivity of China-India border question," he said.

    "Under such a background if India invites the Dalai to visit to the mentioned territory, it will cause serious damage to peace and stability of border region and China-India relations," he said.

    "We have expressed concerns to the Indian side, urged India to stick to its political commitments and abide by important consensus the two sides have reached on the boundary question, refrain from actions that might complicate the issue, not provide a platform to the Dalai clique and protect the sound and stable development of the Sino-India relations," he said.

    Geng's comments came in the backdrop of an interview to the Chinese media by former Chinese Special Representative on boundary dispute Dai Bingguo in which he said the border dispute between the two nations can be resolved if India gives up claim over Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh.

    Asked about Dai's comments, Geng said he has not seen the interview.

    He said China's principled position on the boundary question with India is to reach an early solution pending China-India border question is in the fundamental interest of the two countries.

    Source : www.news18.com/news/india/china-warns-india-against-allowing-dalai-lama-to-visit-arunachal-pradesh-1356029.html
     
  14. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Warning number 63928462.
     
  15. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Their Warnings don't come without eventual repercussions.....They won't be letting us in the NSG or Letting us blacklist Azhar...or let us in the UNSC (P) any time soon...
    or
    Who knows they might never let us....

    Perhaps we are on paths so continually different that an interlinking compromise just isn't possible....

    It seems the GoI has realised that...

    The Chinese definately have an upper hand for the foreseeable future.....Let's see what happens....

    I hope some day...Our Economic...Diplomatic...Political....Social.... and Military strength comes near or on par to them...So that we witness a spar...On a more even footing....
     
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