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Pakistan Says Nsg Membership For India Will Harm Regional Stability

Discussion in 'International Relations' started by seiko, Oct 30, 2016.

  1. seiko

    seiko VETERAN FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan has said India getting membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group will affect security in South Asia and derail “global non-proliferation”.

    Pakistan says India’s military nuclear programme is a threat to peace and it should not be admitted to NSG.

    “This build-up (of nuclear arsenal) has been facilitated by the 2008 Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver granted to India, which not only dented the credibility of the non-proliferation regime and undermined its efficacy, but also negatively affected the strategic balance in South Asia,” said Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman Nafees Zakariya at a weekly press briefing, reports the Dawn.

    Zakariya said that another country-specific exemption by the NSG regarding membership would make the ill effects of the 2008 exemption worse.

    “It remains our hope that the NSG member states would make a well-considered decision this time keeping in view its long-term implications for the global non-proliferation regime as well as strategic stability in our region,” he said.

    http://www.defencenews.in/article/P...-for-India-will-harm-regional-stability-28966
     
  2. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    What Pakistan needs to argue is how allowing it into NSG will aid regional stability, if it can make such a case. What the group decides about other potential members should not be Pakistan's concern. What fools run its foreign policy? Oh wait, I know the answer.
     
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  3. dadeechi

    dadeechi Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    As long as India is not permitted into NSG, India should not sign any nuclear agreements with any countries other than Russia.
     
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  4. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Well with the think tank publishing 492 nukes estimate for India, it was expected... But Non proliferation point is a poor joke.. really with honesty..

    What i dont understand is why India and Pakistan keeps on looking at NSG by firing over each others shoulders..Pursue things on merit..

    Even i guess NaMo needs to let go of NSG.. see China cannot enter MTCR till we give them the access.. so unless its a quid pro quo, i dont think we should pursue things too much publicly.. Let time be the best way to judge and decide...

    If i understand give N sites for power plant to all and see the work being started.. at some point of time China will come in table as well along with High speed Freight corridor option

    @anant_s : What you say about this? @Nilgiri your thoughts as well
     
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  5. dadeechi

    dadeechi Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    This whole business of India needing NSG membership is over hyped and too much political capital is being invested for a membership/title.

    The main concern is that the NSG waiver given to India could be undone at a later date if India does not have NSG membership.

    With India and Russia already moving ahead in building 12 nuclear reactors, Russia being a member of NSG would ensure that NSG does not undo the waiver which would adversely impact its deals with India.

    Also, let other NSG members like US, France, Japan, Australia etc do the heavy lifting as lack of NSG membership for India would equally impact their ability to do the business with India. Their choices are

    1) Convince(force) China in accepting India as NSG member

    2) Throw China out of NSG

    3) Lose Nuclear business with India which would gladly be picked up by Russia
     
  6. R!CK

    R!CK 2nd Lieutant Technical Analyst

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    NSG? whats that? Is it the same grouping that couldn't stop China from building nuclear reactors in Pakistan without any exemption? Is it the same grouping that couldn't do anything about China assisting Pakistan and North Korea with Nuclear weapons development?

    All these so-called councils are a joke. On a similar note, how many people are aware of China and KSA being elected to UN Human Rights Council? lol The only thing left to happen is, NK elected as permanent member of UN security Council.

    "Human-rights organizations have long contended that having countries like Russia, China, Rwanda and Saudi Arabia on the council undermines its credibility and cripples it in its task."
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-voted-off-u-n-human-rights-council-1477681604


    P.S: Such an ironic state of affairs!

    Good Day all!
     
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  7. Bregs

    Bregs Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Point No 2 is most appropriate and interesting :yahoo:
     
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  8. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Yes. Much like MTCR membership was just an "officialisation" (given its been confirmed that Brahmos was always having 600+ km range capability)....so will NSG (with the brahmos equivalent here being the NSG waiver).

    India can wait indefinitely given the waiver covers the real meat of the requirement. The value we give to NSG membership is whatever we elect to put into it. I believe China knows this so India can definitely get a good deal with them in the long run given the increasing nuclear energy market in India.
     
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  9. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Captain FULL MEMBER

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    NSG and UNSC can be used as bargaining chip against Unkil
     
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  10. anant_s

    anant_s Encyclopedia Technical Analyst

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    My view is a bit contrary to it and we should go back to Pokhran 1 to understand why.
    Back in summer of 74 when India conducted its first set, immediate reaction from western community in form of bans and denial of nuclear technology happened. A general view was that since India was close to Soviet Union, policy makers feared that India might get into distribution of weapons technology. what was more disturbing to them was use of Plutonium which is extracted out by a process called Purex Chemical separation of Spent nuclear fuel (whereby spent fuel is broken unto hull waste (the sheath material usually zirconium alloys), fission Product noble Gases, Actinide products, Uranium 238 residual and all important Plutonium (starting 239, 240, 241, 242)
    reprocessing_used_fuel_purex_flow_sheet.jpg
    This process by passes a technologically challenging and costly centrifuge technology, which albeit being cleaner, requires a massive industrial capability. By 70s, western world had protected it with all their might, so as not to let this technology get into hands of nations which were not abiding by US's policies.
    PUREX requires you to have relatively simpler plants and a good base of chemical engineers to workout the prized plutonium.

    Immediately afterwards, NSG was formed and any technology associated with plutonium extraction was put into list of restricted materials (called the trigger list).
    upload_2016-10-31_13-9-35.png
    http://www.nuclearsuppliersgroup.or...lists/Prague_2013/NSG_Part_1_Rev.12_clean.pdf

    Western world thought that was the end of Indian story without realizing what China and Dr. A Q Khan (at URENCO in The Netherlands) were doing. Taking advantage of incomplete Restricted Trigger List and the fact that President Reagan was ready to turn a blind eye on the activities in lieu of access to Afghan Mujahideen against Soviet Red Army, the clandestine illegal N program was not only allowed to run, but funded by US taxpayers money.
    Later, when US decided to end such aid to Pakistan, they had no hesitation to share it with nations like North Korea, Saudi Arabia and even Libya. this allowed Pakistan to not only get money to run the program but also get Delivery systems (Ballistic missiles) from N Korea.

    Now India on its part, guarded the secrets safely and although denial regime had a huge impact progress of civilian program, the moot point of killing Indian program by formation of NSG was defeated.
    During 123 agreement debates in US congress, it was put on record that denial regime has not only failed to meet its objectives but allowed India to emerge stronger in field.
    In the end what won day for India was its spotless Non Proliferation record and the fact that it was acknowledged that getting India (or other nations for that matter) in mainstream Nuclear agreements is the best way forward for nuclear disarmament.
    Now fast forward from there to this year.
    NSG is the next logical step for India as it allows free trade of civil Nuclear technology, which India wants for its energy needs. here we must remember that Civil Nuclear agreements between individual countries (like Indo US 123 agreement) provides for commercial deals to be signed and allow India to establish N trade contracts but these Inter Government agreements are time bound and are re-visited after a certain time period and therefore becoming NSG member would allow India to move far more freely.
    Now China here has more than India to worry about. after MTCR, NSG membership would definitely be read as acceptance of India into world politics high stage something China doesn't seem to want. Both nations have good trade and co-operation in other areas, but geographical proximity and China's own share of problems in its East and South, logically it can ill afford to have a powerful neighbor on its west too.
    So while China understands, it cannot keep sand bagging India for long, at best it can try is to delay the inevitable and buy some time in the bargain.
    By 2030, (@Nilgiri may please confirm) economists believe demographics and negative affects of One Child Policy would start to show in China and from there a lot of manufacturing is likely to move out to other countries (like garments to Bangladesh and Vietnam, steel to African nations etc).
    When an economy based on huge trade surpluses face that situation, there are likely ramifications diplomatically as well and hence China is doing what it can now to garner as much diplomatic clout as it can. Indian NSG case is only a small part of that ploy.

    So while India is still doing good as far as N trade is concerned, it must not abandon NSG membership efforts especially with momentum on her side. It will have a good impact on our future energy planning but more than that it is likely to alter the course of diplomacy at least in South East Asia.
    @MilSpec @Vergennes @nair
     
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