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Pakistan's reaction to Indian Cold Start doctrine

Discussion in 'International Relations' started by 4Aces, Apr 27, 2011.

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  1. 4Aces

    4Aces Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan's reaction to Indian Cold Start doctrine
    Mandeep Singh Bajwa and Ravi Rikhye




    Pakistani concern over India's Cold Start doctrine has begun to border on panic. The doctrine requires that instead of the usual minimum 10-day mobilization time, the Indian Army should be able to launch at least 8 brigade+ thrusts into Pakistan with zero warning. The objective is not just to grab territory before the Pakistan Army can react, it is also 9intended to get inside Pakistan's nuclear decision-making cycle. India will declare a ceasefire very soon after an offensive begins, rendering the threat of Pakistan nuclear weapons moot. Also, Pakistan will have to dorect these weapons against its own territory, which will obviously limit its options.
    While the testing of the 60-km Haft 9 battlefield missile, allegedly carrying a sub-kiloton warhead, has received attention and been touted as Pakistan's answer to Cold Start, the Indian Army believes this is another example of Pakistan seeking to use psychological tactics to deter India. The Indian Army does not take these threats seriously and has no intention of being inhibited on account of Pakistan's N-arsenal. The Indian position is that the weapons of both sides are unusable for a variety of practical reasons.
    Of greater concern to the Indian Army is the conventional warfare revamp Pakistan is undertaking with the intention of slowing down Cold Start thrusts. Pakistan is particularly concerned with its perceived vulnerabilities in the Chenab-Ravi corridor which is covered by two reinforced divisions of its XXX Corps. The concern began when India split its XVI Corps into two, with a new HQ IX Corps dedicated specifically to offensive operations in this corridor. Pakistan's worry is that a breakthrough here will (a) permit Indian forces to hook around Pakistan's West Kashmir defenses, forcing a general withdrawal from Kashmir, or (b) a pincer operation by Indian IX and XI Corps will pinch out the salient forward of the line Lahore-Sialkot.
    Accordingly, Pakistan is boosting its corps reserves both for its XXX Corps and the Lahore-based IV Corps. It has already boosted reserves south of Lahore down to the Rann of Kutch. Pakistan plans also to raise two new divisions for an Army Reserve Center, thus providing it three strike corps to match against India's three. That requirement was changed to six divisions: one each for the four plains holding corps and two for a new strike corps.
    The difficulty Pakistan is facing is a serious shortfall of resources. After the 1999 Kargil War Pakistan identified a need for five more divisions to stop an Indian counter-offensive in the plains in response to a Pakistani attack on Kashmir. Two of those divisions have been raised (Corps Reserves V and XXXI Corps). But first, the new raisings are largely a rationalization of existing loose brigades. Second, Pakistan is stalled: it has XXX Corps Reserves under raising, again, mainly by a rationalization of existing loose brigades, but has been unable to make headway for the IV Corps Reserves, which will also consist of formerly independent brigade. Meanwhile, there seems no hope of the two armor/mechanized divisions for the new strike corps of coming up any time soon.
    Aside from blowing the nuclear trumpet, Pakistan is greatly strengthening its fixed defenses, starting first in the Chenab-Ravi corridor, to be followed by the Ravi-Sutluj corridor. These two corridors have always been the most heavily fortified. It is analyzing a move to shift armor reserves closer to the International Border to better provide against a surprise Indian attack.
    On its side, India has been undertaking a massive expansion of capabilities. Its 2011 GDP is seven times Pakistan's, and will keep increasing. So resources are available in plenty. Among India's changes are six enormous programs: (a) increasing the Army's capacity for airmobile operations; (b) an all-out effort to enhance the Air Force's strike capabilities; (c) a complete reequipment of artillery; (d) an infantry upgrade; (e) an enhancement of battlefield missile capabilities together with an expansion of longer range systems and ABM systems; and (f) adoption of a netcentric capability for the Army, complete with a big increase in the number of UAVs.
    More important, the Indian Army has most lately decided to seize the initiative on the question of N-weapons. Till now Pakistan has been able to define the issue with few, if any, reactions from India. The Army has now begun saying in messages directed at Pakistan: "If you go on talking about how you're going to counter Cold Start with N-weapons, we may well have to use our N-weapons preemptively against your ground forces, in support of Cold Start."We can all agree this is psychological posturing. But so is Pakistan's ever-continuing threat to use N-weapons on the battlefield. The difference now is the Indian Army has grasped the uses of psychological warfare. It has decided to continue letting Pakistan define the N-debate is counterproductive, and that India must seize the psychological initiative as much as the initiative in conventional capabilities.


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    Last edited: Apr 27, 2011
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  2. indian spetsnaz

    indian spetsnaz 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    good thread 4Aces :tup:
     
  3. DaRk KnIght

    DaRk KnIght Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    :cheers: :cheers:
     
  4. Bad Wolf

    Bad Wolf Major SENIOR MEMBER

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  5. mallika

    mallika 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Although Pakistan military personnel are downplaying the effectiveness of cold start doctrine, it is an excellent doctrine, Pakistan is again forced to rely upon nuclear threshold for its existence. Further Indian army is bolstering its western front with sophisticated equipment, Due to Cold Start Doctrine, Pakistan is forced to increase its defence budget frequently. India has to go along with cold start doctrine, We are able to see certain good results because of this doctrine.
     
  6. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    The way i see it Pak is not a threat to India anymore... India SHould focus more on strengthening Infra structure and Indigenous defense developments.
     
  7. Jungibaaz

    Jungibaaz Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Cold start doctrine.

    The capability isn't mobilize units quickly has always been improving, in fact so much so that, units can move in and mobilize well before the decision to go to war is taken. Which is where I have a question for Indian members...

    Would Indian Armed forces not be slowed by the decision making process?
    What is the process in India?
     
  8. Skull and Bones

    Skull and Bones Doctor Death Staff Member MODERATOR

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    In emergency situations, the decision making will be in the hands of Armed forces.
     
  9. Jungibaaz

    Jungibaaz Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Another thing about cold war.

    Don't be fooled into thinking that the plan is to crush Pakistan in a prolonged war and invade blah blah...

    It's meant to be quick and lethal, a shock and awe attack in which Indian Armed Forces quickly achieve their objectives.
    The thinking behind cold start is not just the advantage you have on the ground because of this tactic but also that a prolonged war can damage a country's economy.
     
  10. Jungibaaz

    Jungibaaz Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Yes Cold start is way to free Indian Armed Forces.

    But my question let me rephrase it now...

    In an emergency situation, do the Armed Forces assume power or wait for GoI to hand power?
    This is very significant.
     
  11. Skull and Bones

    Skull and Bones Doctor Death Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Armed forces will assume power more likely, as from outside it'll be very hard for me to comment. As the process is very convoluted.

    But as per constitution, in case of emergency, Armed forces can nullify political clout and can gain control over the whole Indian administration system.
     
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  12. ManuSankar

    ManuSankar Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    I think,It all depends on what is the emergency situation and the political will of people in South Block.
     
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  13. Jungibaaz

    Jungibaaz Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    If this is true then there ought to be no problem for IA to take up the cold start doctrine.

    @all

    Did you know that the use of proxies is an important part of it all?
    Both countries use them and they play a massive part in preparation for war.

    The Indian subversive Cold Start doctrine is meant to severely weaken Pakistan's capabilities,
    the goal to cause damage to the enemy's economy and make it so that by the time war comes knocking the enemy would be unable to fight for more then a few days and only hours before the war causes a massive strain on the economy. Not to forget the use of forces such as the BLA and others.

    There is so much more to it then we originally see.
     
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  14. ManuSankar

    ManuSankar Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    What??? Is that possible,I think the PM has the final say in what ever emergency there is.At least that's how it is supposed to be in Westminster parliamentary system.Such a takeover of Indian administration system will equalant to a military coup.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2012
  15. DaRk KnIght

    DaRk KnIght Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    :what:
     
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