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South Asia: Future threats by Christine Fair

Discussion in 'The Big Adda' started by Agent_47, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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  2. nair

    nair Guest

    Can some one summarize it please..... Cannot watch in office...
     
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  3. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Afghanistan/Pakistan :
    • Failure of afghan government. (Its too big)
    • Afgans have a theory that ISI is behind ISIS in the area? Now she thinks they are right.
    • Don't stop funding the afghan govenment
    • Pakistan is not waging a war against terrorist , they are waging war against people who oppose terrorists.
    • Control pakistan. Stop giving aids without conditions.
    • CPEC - Colonizing Pakistan to Enrich China :sarcastic:
    • Tactical nuclear weapon doctrain - 1) IF India cross border they will do a air burst of a TNW on their own soil 2) If india continue to progress, they will use TNW on their own population ! :achmed:
    India:
    • US and India should work together to punish pakistan when needed.
    • India always ends with 'but they have nuclear bomb' statement, But no pakistani establishment think like that. India should establish same kind of deterrence.
    • Supporting baluch insurgency is a bad idea
    • India don't have the capability to do targeted strikes.
    • India is a dog that doesn't bark :dude:
    • India has produced individual ISIS recruits from High HDI places like Kerala :drag:
    Bangladesh :
    • Disaster waiting to happen
    • Terrorists too inexperienced to execute big projects, in search of a mentor figure.
    • Rohingya is too vulnerable to islamic fundamentalism.
    @Levina @Abingdonboy @nair @MilSpec @Gessler @Robinhood Pandey @randomradio @vstol jockey @Hellfire @NS52 @BlackOpsIndia @Rain Man @Grevion @Nilgiri @GSLV Mk III @SrNair@dadeechi @Ankit Kumar 001 @kaku1 @Golden_Rule @IndiranChandiran @lca-fan @Lion of Rajputana @thesolar65 @Sathya @Butter Chicken @AbRaj @WhyCry @bharathp @Aqwoyk @GuardianRED@PeegooFeng41 @Indx TechStyle @Ved Mishra @ni8mare @A_poster @Itachi @drunken-monke @Kalmuahlaunda @zebra7 @Marqueur @PARIKRAMA
     
  4. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    There is this phenomenon I am observing with most analysts that they lose the objectivity to praise the loyal audience and hence the quality of analysis suffers. I have seen this with multiple analysts, from scholars they turn into propaganda tools and it is so disappointing cuz you have to search hard to again find a knowledgeable scholar. I use to believe in this woman but now she is more anti-Pakistan than an actual analyst, therefore sometimes says things that are not very credible or authentic.
     
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  5. nair

    nair Guest

    She is absolutely right...... Some time we (they) forget that we also have nukes..... Lol.......
     
  6. nair

    nair Guest

    Epic.... It may sound sarcastic.... But She has a point there..... Colonizing.... Buying pakistan..... All these days US and KSA used to do this, they used a shorter route..... Buying few generals and political leaders..... China took a different approach.,.....
    Not very sure..... But

    I have been told that we bark too much and never bite..... I thoght Modi is planning to change that opinion of our adversaries....

    HDI has nothing much to do with religion... Even UK has ISIS recruits...... and by the way in that recruited mallus there is a doctor.....
     
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  7. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Why can't an analyst speak her mind. She have extreme views because she studied years about the pakistan military and state and those are her conclusions. What is her incentive of going anti-Pakistan just for the sake of it. She is an outsider in the region, she came in with a clean slate.

    This is the problem with information overload in this new age society. We struggle to judge the source authenticity.

    Here is the mild version of the same ideas :

     
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  8. IndiranChandiran

    IndiranChandiran Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    PSK in his blog Trishul suggests that a US led alliance supported by Russia & Iran without participation with a neutral China & India would de fang Pakistan of its N weapons & the means to produce & deliver it.He gives a timeline of 2018-19 extendable by a year or 2 .

    You would dismiss it as fiction .I find it far fetched too .One doesn't see India moving decisively on Pakistan in the absence of such a move .

    Such is the state of fear of N blackmail amongst the Indian political class.One wonders if the current administration has it in them to either call Pakistan's bluff in the event that the US won't attempt to neutralise Pakistan's N arsenal or bite the bullet and accept our losses if Pakistan makes good on their threat were we to face another outrage like 26/11.

    There's a 3rd option too.The PVN doctrine .Pout and pretend nothing's happened .Move on , take the losses in your stride & focus on the economy secure in the knowledge that the more stable Pakistan gets the bigger the threat .Paradoxically , an unstable Pakistan also poses a similar kind of threat .

    There are no easy answers here.
     
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  9. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    She is just saying its a new phenomenon which we should be watchful.
     
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  10. IndiranChandiran

    IndiranChandiran Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Given the proliferation of US think tanks in India & the co option of some of the brightest of our strategic minds in order to harmonise India's future security doctrine more closely with that of the US , it wouldn't be out of place to suggest she's not completely impartial in her judgement calls .

    Not that we should be complaining .Having been on the receiving end of an unholy US Pak China nexus which resulted in the nuclesrisation of Pakistan amongst other sins , it's good to see the boot on the other foot.

    she does back up her prognosis with sound facts & figures .He analysis leaves one with little scope for disagreement.
     
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  11. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    When did I say she cant speak her mind?

    I just said it make things difficult for us who want to know the reality, what is actually going on and not what we like to hear. She tells very pleasant thing which every Indian will cheer and give standing ovation for, its not just Hussain Haqqani, or Christine fair, there are plenty of them.

    Also taking whatever a high-ranking figure say on face value just cuz they spent their life is a dumb strategy. If you cant question, if you dont evaluate both sides you will probably lead yourself (not you) into a delusional place far away from reality. Whatever she(or others) say is not 100% true, most of them want loyal audience, to sell the book, to get fat speaking fees and probably some amount from intelligence agencies from time to time for pushing a particular narrative.

    This is a popular marketing strategy, first, you build audience, loyal ones by offering pure value, they consider you ultimate guru, then you monetize them. It is so common and I have seen it so many times, not just in this field but everywhere. See how Tarek Fatah sells himself now, after getting lot of traction on youtube years back.
     
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  12. WhyCry

    WhyCry Reaper Love IDF NewBie

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    Her approach is admirable and I agree with most of it. Pakistan's MAD policy is actually coming from the ARMY. They cannot loose control over the country. It doesn't meant that they want to overthrow government. It means power coming from control and money in the country for the Army.

    I want to add to her policy by pouring gasoline over it. US (or India should pursuaded) could have resetting of relations with pakistan over OBL disaster. Even though US did strikes inside Pakistan, pakistan was to blame. We know that a terrorist attack on Indian army is inevitable. (As much as I hate to admit, terrorist have shown their potential to do the same). We need to strike back not only with the narrative, culprit name but in physical approach towards them. I know we had surgical strikes earlier and loved them but it needs to be made a policy and not one off incident. I don't even care if they are shown with proof or not; or even not carried but claimed with LOC firing. But this establishes
    1. a status-quo with Pakistan in terms attacks and retaliation.
    2. It challenges the pakistan army's dominance in pakistani hearts and brains (if there are any).

    I want to analyse the post surgical strike drama from pakistan. First they claimed revenge, then nuclear threat (standard), then suppression of news in pakistan, then no surgical strikes, then pakistan open to talks. This episode opened the pakistan army's approach to terrorism and flaws in its narrative. So they best they came up was it didn't happened and people just got killed somehow (still unclear but works for pakistan).
     
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  13. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild IDF NewBie

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    I would like to see Christne Fair and Tarek fatah included in our committees that write history books to students. anyone wants to start a petition for that? the Pseudo seculars will alsobe happy - we have a white christian and a full blooded pakistani in our committees.
     
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  14. Agent_47

    Agent_47 Admin - Blog IDF NewBie

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    Try chatting with her on twitter. :crazy: That lady don't BS.
    Yes, She is trying a US-India angle. He F-16 sale proposal is an example. But her primary area of study is not india or kashmir but pakistan-Afghan-US.
    What i mean is, she is not trying to sugarcoat things just look neutral.
     
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  15. bharathp

    bharathp Developers Guild IDF NewBie

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    this sort of "anti dote" comes up when there is a lot of extreme teaching/dialogue going on. both Christine Fair and Tarek Fatah are fulfilling a niche market. those people who hate being bullied by the vocal extremist groups and abused by the appeasing mindset of the ruling class (just to get the votes). they are growing in popularity as a reaction to these policies that have festered long enough. there needs to be an ideological polar opposite to the extremist view - and these two people provide it.
     
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