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Study find humans are too dumb to pick the right person to lead us

Discussion in 'The Big Adda' started by Picard, Apr 23, 2013.

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  1. Picard

    Picard Lt. Colonel RESEARCHER

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    Is this the reason democracy can't work? Study find humans are too dumb to pick the right person to lead us | Mail Online

    It's a study that would have been music to the ears of Hitler, Stalin and the rest of the 20th century's brutal dictators.

    But it may make uncomfortable reading for the rest of us.

    Scientists have suggested the theory of democracy has an unfortunate flaw - that most of the public are just too stupid to pick the right candidate.

    According to the theory, the democratic process relies on the assumption that a majority of citizens recognise the best political candidate, or best policy idea, when they see it.
    But a growing body of research has implied that democratic elections produce mediocre leadership and policies.

    Research led by Professor David Dunning, a psychologist at Cornell University, shows incompetent people are inherently unable to judge the competence of other people, or the quality of those people's ideas.

    For example, if people lack expertise on tax reform, it is very difficult for them to identify the candidates who are actual experts. They simply lack the mental tools needed to make meaningful judgments.

    As a result, no amount of information or facts about political candidates can override the inherent inability of many voters to accurately evaluate them.

    Prof Dunning said: 'Very smart ideas are going to be hard for people to adopt, because most people don't have the sophistication to recognise how good an idea is.'

    He and colleague Professor Justin Kruger, formerly of Cornell and now of New York University, have demonstrated again and again that people are self-delusional when it comes to their own intellectual skills.

    Whether the researchers are testing people's ability to rate the funniness of jokes, the correctness of grammar, or even their own performance in a game of chess, the duo has found that people always assess their own performance as 'above average' — even people who, when tested, actually perform at the very bottom of the pile.

    'We're just as undiscerning about the skills of others as about ourselves. To the extent that you are incompetent, you are a worse judge of incompetence in other people,' Prof Dunning said.


    The reason for this disconnect is simple: 'If you have gaps in your knowledge in a given area, then you're not in a position to assess your own gaps or the gaps of others,' Prof Dunning said.

    Strangely though, in these experiments, people tend to readily and accurately agree on who the worst performers are, while failing to recognise the best performers.

    Truly ignorant people may be the worst judges of candidates and ideas, Prof Dunning said, but we all suffer from a degree of blindness stemming from our own personal lack of expertise.

    Dr Mato Nagel, a sociologist in Germany, recently implemented Prof Dunning and Prof Kruger's theories by computer-simulating a democratic election.

    In his mathematical model of the election, he assumed that voters' own leadership skills were distributed on a bell curve — some were really good leaders, some, really bad, but most were mediocre — and that each voter was incapable of recognising the leadership skills of a political candidate as being better than his or her own.

    When such an election was simulated, candidates whose leadership skills were only slightly better than average always won.

    Dr Nagel concluded that democracies rarely or never elect the best leaders.

    Their advantage over dictatorships or other forms of government is merely that they 'effectively prevent lower-than-average candidates from becoming leaders.'
    ------------------------------------------------

    Exactly as I said once: with dictatorship, situation might be good, bad, excellent or horrible. With democracy, it is eternally bad. (Until you include backroom politics and capitalists, that is. Then it takes a turn for worse).
     
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  2. Rock n Rolla

    Rock n Rolla Lt. Colonel STAR MEMBER

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    Most people are dumb to make a right decision, and the Political parties mostly field useless persons as their candidates. Guess that's how democracy works right now :undecided:

    People should have the power to choose potential candidates from each political party & then vote for the best amongst them, now that would be better than the current system :pleasantry:
     
  3. smestarz

    smestarz Lt. Colonel REGISTERED

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    Over democratic system is flawed in such a way that even if you try to make changes it would take 10 years.
    We need to overhaul the system and change it with better system in which the people are aware of their responsibility.

    Also I might suggest that the people should organize the debate of their candidates so that the people can see the views of the candidates on the peoples problems and issues,
    It is easier to read from paper in a speech (Italian waitress does that only) but when it comes to debate a few candidates can answer. Even our present home minister and ex-chief minister of Maharastra S K Shinde does pass some stupid jokes on which only he is laughing like idiot and others find it appalling.
     
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  4. Picard

    Picard Lt. Colonel RESEARCHER

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    Reason why democracy does not work:

    [​IMG]

    When you have a small number of people, then people can get to know each other; get to know whom to trust and whom not to trust. But when people are in large groups, such "getting-to-know" is impossible. And while people could decide which candidate is best through process of elimination, most people are simply too lazy, too stupid, or both to undertake such process; as such a process would require large amount of research so people can decide what is actually best for them, instead of relying on politicians' claims, as well as good understanding of political processes. And there is whole "people are idiots / herd mentality subsection" thing; once you convince large number of people to believe in some stupid idea, number of people accepting such an idea will quickly snowball (e. g. neoliberal capitalism) as they will follow a rationale of "if majority believes it is correct, then it most likely is correct". If people used their brains to think, such logic could be justified*, but more often than not truth is completely opposite of what majority of people believe; even when you include so-called experts, most of whom have simply been brainwashed into towing same line as majority.

    *theoretically, in reality there is always a not-inconsiderable chance that someone has information that is unknown to or ignored by public at large, and which completely changes equation
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2013
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  5. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    yes this is internal flaw of democracy but we need to understand it provided the participation of people in power...even if a small participation... it makes them feels belonged and powerful.. which has its own phychological effects and ensurance of future according to them...In democracy the situation is always bad that true but it is better then living in uncertanity of dictatorship.

    if we can learn from our past... most of the nations has kings and when they got defeated they just got defeated there is nothing like internal war going on with the occupier because people were not part of power so they don't cared who ruled them... but all the states.nations of democratic background has given a hard war to attacker till he is defeated be it romans against barberians(till it was a republic), Mallas, Malav, arjunayan and other Indian democratic states against greeks, Magadh, Guptas and other expansionist power, or greek cities against Persians.

    If freedom has a value to save it.. democracy is the only way for it.
     
  6. Picard

    Picard Lt. Colonel RESEARCHER

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    Yes, but with so-called representative democracy people live in false belief that they have influence on decision-making; but as people always elect political party which has most money to brainwash all the idiots, it is easy for capitalists to establish de facto control of any "democratic" country. Only way out would be referendum democracy, without any representative body at all; but how many countries do you know with such set-up?

    And EU is openly undemocratic, yet people still believe it is a democracy, as it has "representative bodies". Gah. France in 1750 had such body.
     
  7. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    people like you and me who read analsys and see things with different prospects can say and see this but what about a person who don't know this much or don't have means and time to analysis this much.. for him world is simple and in simple world.. democracy is representative of people and people feel empowered in it..

    in some recent incidents GOI acted like dictator in front of people's will but most people believe in democracy still because it give them a dream of being there if conditions met and they got lucky... my friend... in a unfair world every dream is important and worth saving... if it means coping up with some problems then be it... atleast people are satisfied and ready to defend their nation.
     
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  8. Picard

    Picard Lt. Colonel RESEARCHER

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    Better to live in dirty reality than in lovely illusion. As for "people being satisified and ready to defend their nation", that's so only to a point. People may be stupid, but are not as stupid as politicians would think. Sooner or later, they realize that something is wrong, but they don't realize exactly what, as fact that number of people attending elections is falling low in the West lately shows:
    Voter turnout in Canada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Voter turnout for Japan?s general elections at record low - The Japan Daily Press
    Record low voter turnout raises question marks | Toronto Star
    Election results 2012: Voter turnout lower than 2008 and 2004, report says
    Voter turnout Tuesday ties record low : Baraboo News Republic
    Voter turnout ties record low ? 6 percent : Reedsburg Times-Press

    We don't have such problems in Croatia, though, as we have over 1 million dead people ready and willing to vote.
     
  9. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    but this dirty reality can go for civil war and more innocent are going to die in this as in syria.. yes voter turn out is a issue and it can be solved by making voting compulsory... to select a better person we need to be able to decide and for this we need a education system which is free from corporate and govt...

    we had one in India named Ashram education system in past... but with time we lost it... IMO this will put the required skill in people...

    dirty reality make most of people become sadist, killers, rapist and all other things.. society can't cope up with it... there are to many people on earth and even a small fragment of them can create havoc
     
  10. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    but this dirty reality can go for civil war and more innocent are going to die in this as in syria.. yes voter turn out is a issue and it can be solved by making voting compulsory... to select a better person we need to be able to decide and for this we need a education system which is free from corporate and govt...

    we had one in India named Ashram education system in past... but with time we lost it... IMO this will put the required skill in people...

    dirty reality make most of people become sadist, killers, rapist and all other things.. society can't cope up with it... there are to many people on earth and even a small fragment of them can create havoc
     
  11. Picard

    Picard Lt. Colonel RESEARCHER

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    Syria had nothing to do with "dirty reality" but with playgames between great powers.
     
  12. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    game is success there because of this dirty reality
     
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