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Sukhoi Su-57 / PAK FA 5th Generation Aircraft

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by tariqkhan18, Jun 30, 2010.

  1. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Russian Helicopter shot down by missile
     
  2. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    They reduced cost of development, but increase price/unit ===> total is the same?
     
  3. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    O
    No & yes

    Yes

    Coz some work has already happened on t 50/pakfa which reduces development work on fgfa so development costs have come down

    What we still dont know is 2 seater development is shelved or not

    Though I think 2/seater will be developed at least for training purposes it will be required - even if its not ordered for sqd service

    So yes development costs have reduced

    No
    They have not increased per unit price

    It's effect of dev costs spread over smaller initial order

    Consider this

    12 billion spread over 256 units
    8 billion spread over 154 units
    8 billion spread over 60 units

    If development costs of 8 billions is amortised over initial 60/units then price of subsequent orders will fall drastically on per unit basis

    Which is unlike in the case of rafale where we will be paying the same 330 million + or even higher even for any subsequent orders
     
  4. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    I think it may have more to do with new tech and new configuration. Earlier, the plan was to start inducting FGFAs in 2019. Eventually they kept adding two years to the schedule, so now it's 2023-24.

    As you may have already noticed, whenever there are major delays, even the configuration changes, like how the IAF is now going for the Rafale with new engine and avionics. The same thing happened with the Russian carrier deal also.

    So it is most likely that new equipment has been added to the FGFA since 2012. If the deal is delayed even further, then again new equipment will be added.

    The actual budget for the FGFA program is unknown. All we know is the R&D budget has been decreased, most probably due to the exchange rate change in the ruble over the last two years. According to media, since FGFA is now $225M per jet, IAF has asked for only 60 jets. So the total contract for flyaway price could be $13.5B. That's considerably less than the media reported $30B for 250 jets.

    But I think the above is wrong. I actually think the 60 jets is for the PAK FA version for immediate needs, like it is for Rafale. The actual FGFA contract could be for 154 jets. For 154 jets, that's $34.7B. However this money could be spent over 10-15 years, from 2023 onwards. By 2033, 40-50B will be negligible compared to growth in national revenue, around the same size as France today, even with modest growth of 8%.

    AMCA is also expected to cost $200M flyaway.
     
  5. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    From where did you pull out this 200/ milnfigure for amca ?

    Can u site some source

    Or it is your brain fart ?
     
  6. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    Utter BS. The flyaway cost of FGFA is said to be $225M. The flyaway cost of Rafale is $80-90M in comparison. The 8B is the R&D budget, it is not amortized over 60 units. The production budget is completely different and has not been negotiated yet.

    The $300M that was quoted during the MMRCA deal for Rafale was LCC cost, paid over 40 years. The production and ToT cost for 126 was less than $15B or $120M for each jet. The FGFA costs are totally different. And the Rafale deal costs are totally different. You are too stupid to understand these things, so stop posting nonsense.
     
  7. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    It is intelligent people's brain farts. A lot of stuff I post comes true, it's established now. So don't bother me.
     
  8. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    MRCA Updates and Discussions | Page 1014 | Indian Defence Forum
     
  9. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    I asked this question because the huge devaluation of the ruble may have favorised the FGFA recurring cost, and it was not the case.
     
  10. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    OK now answer me.this

    So if r&d costs are not amortised and not included in flyaway costs

    Then how will Russia make money ?

    If Russia invests 4 billion in r&d as its share - it does so to make money

    Or r u saying that they will invest 4 billion just like that without any expectations of returns on investment ?

    How it works ?

    Typically the flyaway costs include the amortisation of r&d expense + the agreed profit margins of the jv

    And only in such a case Russia (also India ) can earn a return on its investment
     
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  11. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    In this case India will pay its share (4 billion) plus the Russian share amortised on the 60 it buy.
     
  12. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    A large amount of Indian contribution is meant for infrastructure in India. There was a media report a few years ago which put the cost in India as $2.4B. This was when the deal was supposed to be $5.5B for each country.

    Even though ruble has devalued considerably, rupee has also devalued by 30% since contract negotiations began. So the costs may have come down in terms of dollars, but the scope of the program may have increased. This is good news in fact.
     
  13. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel REGISTERED

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    The profit sharing is designed based on the Brahmos JV. The JV company will generate revenues and the company will be owned by Sukhoi and HAL on a 50-50 basis.

    The 8B is purely the R&D budget. The production budget will go into many billions. If FGFA and the Russian PAK FA, both cost 225M, then looking at the planned requirement of 200 each, the total contract could easily exceed $90B just on flyaway cost alone. Production, bases, spares, weapons, maintenance etc could bring the size of the program to over $270B over 40 years.

    So total program cost would put each bird at $695M each minimum. At 695M each, I'm sure the company would have made huge profits. Export jets will cost about 20% more.

    This 8B doesn't include all the money the Russians have already spent in developing the PAK FA.

    Ultimately, the plan is to make 1000+ PAK FA/FGFA. With most of them being FGFA. This does not count all the variants that will eventually be made every 10 years for another 20 years. That's over $225B in flyaway costs for PAK FA/FGFA alone. Newer variants will be more expensive.

    Don't forget this is like the Brahmos program, where the R&D budget was $500+M and order book is over $13B. Not to mention, multiple new variants planned.

    In case the PAK FA/FGFA program fails, then the money is gone, whoosh into thin air. The only thing left behind will be a few bad aircraft, the bad experience and disgruntled scientists, politicians and bureaucrats.
     
  14. Averageamerican

    Averageamerican Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Talk about counting your chickens before they hatch.
     
  15. Paliwal Warrior

    Paliwal Warrior Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    You are not getting the point

    Pic got it

    Please get it clarified with him

    I will give you a detailed answer soon
     

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