Dismiss Notice
Welcome to IDF- Indian Defence Forum , register for free to join this friendly community of defence enthusiastic from around the world. Make your opinion heard and appreciated.

The Merry Go Round Circus of IAF Acquisitions

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by PARIKRAMA, Sep 7, 2017.

?

What do you think - Will the merry go round end before 2018 end when code of conduct starts?

This poll will close on Sep 22, 2017 at 2:39 AM.
  1. Yes

    37.0%
  2. No

    63.0%
  1. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,482
    Likes Received:
    7,054
    Country Flag:
    India
    Part 1 : http://indiandefence.com/threads/iaf-in-a-crisis.62642/
    IAF In CRISIS


    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Part 2 : The Merry Go Round Circus of IAF Acquisitions


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So a new DM NS finally was appointed. But whats the status change really? In a candid discussion with few of the folks from IAF and MOD brass, the understanding we could gather is as below.

    Continuing on the last article, the whole defence acquisition itself is in doldrums again. Part of it is to be blamed on our morbid acquisition process, part on the lack of spine by our authorities. What is everybody doing is to play safe and not get a blot of stain called corruption in their clothes and yet doing so, we magnificently screw up the whole modernisation drive.

    We will touch base on few topics

    1. The SE figther Saga

    No sooner had we heard that its finally a F16 Block 70 vs Gripen E/F out in open for IAF Single Engine (SE) tender for approx 90 birds or 4.5 squadrons to begin with which can go to a max of 7.5 sqds or 150 Birds , the challenges seems many to this whole process.

    The latest meeting of DM NS and all stakeholders has showed the following brief data points (taken from other open sources to point here)

    The SP Model process
    upload_2017-9-7_0-58-25.png
    The SP Model progress as of now

    What Aatre Task Force suggested was this
    upload_2017-9-7_1-0-10.png

    What SP Policy (out in May 2017) stated clearly is that SP is basically an integrator and targets to create an ecosystem with all concerned parties.

    The declared parts as of now includes just the fighters/helos, submarines, AFVs/MBTs

    The selection process is defined as
    upload_2017-9-7_1-4-31.png

    Both to be done in parallel to speed it up

    What also must be noted is "OEM must submit a 10 year PBL and Maintenance based costing" as well in the commercial offer. along with "technology being transferred to various stake holders"

    So Whats the issue now?

    Well, the issues are many.. Lets summarise it in short here

    LOGIC
    In the words of Ernst & Young research,
    • In the path to progress with great emphasis laid on “Make in India,” it is highly likely that the cost of design, development, supply chain management and production may be higher than a foreign made product.
    • However, since the development, ecosystem and production will take place within the geography of the country, the taxpayers’ money so billed against the Indian manufactured system under consideration is circulated within the same geography many times.
    • The knock-on effects of indigenization are far higher and outweigh the initial higher cost. Thus, the cost to the country would be far less than the L-1 cost, if seen in this perspective.
    • Corporates need to gear up now. Delivering the desired strategic system within the timeframe and conforming to the highest quality standards while dealing with restricted availability of military grade raw materials will challenge their supply chain.
    • Corporates must map the existing industry in terms of their preparedness, quality and capacity.
    • Many corporates have made investments in multidisciplinary sub-sectors of defence. It is time now to build on the supply chain for the segments and develop an aerospace and defence manufacturing ecosystem.
    • Although it might take around 3—4 years before we see actual action on the ground concerning the policy, every positive development toward the end result is welcome.
    • Having a policy is just the beginning.

    REALITY

    In the meeting of new DM NS with all stakeholders, the updated presentation on SE acquisition covered the following points
    • The whole Process will take 3 (three) years in effect. (subject to certain conditions)
    • The break down is as under
      • Year 1 - Submission of Applications and Documentation of all Commercial offers + support dox
      • Year 2 - Scrutiny of all applications and all requisite evaluations including trials and TOT points to be firmly put in paper, evaluated and considered as needed or not as requested by teh forces in their requirements.
      • Year 3 - Picking the potential L1 applicant and initiating the finale closure of IGA and Contract
    • Now there are 2 school of thoughts here
      • The old school want this process to be followed as laid down for the most transparent procurement with proper timelines
      • The new school wants taking back this RFI and issuing a new one with emphasis on G2G process and shortening the whole timeline to just 1 year (overall)
    • The chief challenge to the present government is by the second half to end of next year 2018, code of conduct for elections will be in place and thus it wishes to close the deal before that timeline implying the new school is given more preference.
    • The issue in the hand also is about cancellation of multi billion dollar tenders of acquisitions and mdoernisations which has left a significant gap in our planning and preparedness.
    Is the head ache enough?

    Gripen

    • Contender Gripen E/F has sweetened the deal with almost 53% tech transfer agreement (47% with USA entities unclear as of date and likely to be outside the scope)
    • Gripen has also stated Gripen M under MII with Indian not being its launch customer rather IN being its 2nd customer.
    F16 Block 70
    • F16 Block 70 comes with full localisation and transfer of F13X engine and upgrade to India under TASL.
    • Also plan is for just first 90 and option is given to India to upgrade the line and next produce F35 but under limited technology transfer using Israeli modifications.
    • The F16 MRO and part facility will continue supporting global needs as well under export and MLUs
    • Government favours the G2G deal for this particular case with line being setup for 36 F16 per year to begin with and later changing to 16 F35s and 16 F16s (exports, MLUs and if needed more Indian orders)
    LCA MK2 based on SE fighter Choice
    • LCA Mk2 will share interiors, upgrades and almost many subs systems with the SE winner.
    • There are two possibilities - One which is now under consideration for TASL to make LCA Mk2 completely and make HAL consider only Mk1A and other Russian fighter projects (if TASL wins)
    • But accessing tech and engine from other project (DRAL based components and Safran for engines including upgraded ones) is still an issue under consideration and a proper evaluation will be done.
    • Second to DRAL for LCA Mk2 if Dassault takes the quality and performance guarantee which enhances the product portfolio of Dassault globally with the retirement of Mirage production line and also enables to make a deeper systemic impact to Indian MIC.
    • This is a keen new outcome to watch out for especially since LCA ecosystem will get a tremendous boost via this method.

    2. The TE Fighter Saga
    • With a clarity that IAF wants Rafale in requisite numbers from Merignac and from DRAL, the scope of conflict has increased a lot more within MOD.
    • In one side is the continuous emphasis of SE being "Cheaper" then TE and other is the need for TE fighters in Medium role for extended emerging environment.
    • The failures of cost and performance of SE vs TE expected and reality scenarios have hit MOD hard.
    • With the advent of F35 coming to India in TASL, the TE fighters itself now faces a bigger challenge to justify why they are needed if a 5th Gen Western SE fighter is available for India.
    • Of course this kind of puts indigenous program in TE category to a delay mode for subsequent quiet burial or a TD program.
    • Also IAF and IN must club their requirements for the TE need and their joint selection will form the basis of the second MII.
    • The selection to be used will be basically the OEM which helps finish Kaveri Engine and use it in MLU planes. This puts Safran and Rafale in pole position versus F/A-18 SH block 3.
    • But problems are plenty with emphasis on associated cost for IAC1 modification and subsequent overall costs that will be included under customizations head.
    • Still a independent nation like France supporting India at all times, goes a long way, especially if they are able to make Safranised Kaveri power the LCA Mk1A.
    • The thought process includes not depending on only one nation but to widen the whole program and use maximum localisations.
    • There are already discussions on Rafale M not suitable for LPD/LHD operations which the policy makers estimate 3+1 to be in place in coming decade or 2, right in time for a F35 variant to use that platform as well.
    • The other challenge being the emerging AD environment which needs a more sophisticated technical evaluation of the planes.
    • The other challenge being super high maintenance cost of a 5th gen, which IN wants to avoid at all costs and wishes a 4.75 Gen fighter and has made an internal choice of Rafale -M as per their submissions.
    • Obviously IAF fresh 36 requirements talks about a base and needs of specific "things" for their AD/SAM needs, implying the number of Rafale base will rise to 3 (if approved), sufficient to house minimum of 108 Jets easily.
    • With advent of new threat perception and limited access to F35 tech, a hard bargaining will be initiated with French Dassault and DRAL for a hi intensive tech transfer to DRAL for Wings, RAM coatings, Engines, embedded Skin Antenna, recon pods, Aerodynamic 3D systems designing and active cancellation+ many other areas.
    • Most of these will be used for LCA Mk2 as well and hence the offer to make the same in DRAL plant and use DRAL as integrator for LCA Mk2 will be explored.
    • The key challenge for Eric Trappier is the limited Time Dassault has .. Same next year end 2018 before code of conduct comes online.
    • Bcz DRAL factory comes online by 2022, the order must be secured to ensure a 3 year lead time before DRAL made Rafales assembled for first lot from Merignac plant CKD/SKD Units can come together with Indian made components.

    3. Russia - The 5th Gen heavy Fighter and MKI Upgrade

    • Well Russia has its hands full. On one side is the MKI upgrade plan (7+ years since first pointed and till now now finalised) and IAF wanting the matured PAKFA product for FGFA..
    • As such FGFA is officially delayed and pushed for later part of 202X (closer to 2030).
    • Also its main purpose is to replace first the Mig29s and requirements are pegged at just 3 squadrons to max 5 squadrons.
    • The other includes the Mig35 being offered aggressively, even considered from financial perspective and helps bring down other for margins of negotiations.
    • Yet IAF is not even considering Mig 35 inspite of high promises from Russian side
    • Good news is second SSN under lease will join in next 2-3 years and S400 (450 MKI) will be finalised as well within similar time frame (before code of conduct). So plenty of more deals as well with Russia which needs to be finalised.
    • But the prime Super upgrade and FGFA needs a final push.. again 2018 end is the key deadline.


    Final Words
    Nothing changed much.. The circus continues,, We are yet not clear what we will do but what is clear in the minds of policy makers is there must be 2 private sector behemoths to manufacture western and Indian homegrown fighter project. and 1 public sector HAL which will continue MKI, LCA Mk1A and in future FGFA (when signed).

    With the need of a 6X squadron fighter fleet with transport and UAVS above this and a separate dedicated IN 10 sqds, the requirements are huge.. But with fractured way of decision making, and limited time of action left, will the present government able to take the final call before the election code of conduct kicks in?

    What will happen to LCA Mk2 which hinges on the SE fighter and borrows from TE fighter program as well?

    The closeness to USA, the issues with Russia, the time taken for a French Wine to ripe and Indian jet home program going a bit slow.. Plenty of headaches for our new DM NS .. right away in hot seat. Coupled with neighbourhood issues, modernization needs of plenty more stuff and same countries connecting other critical systems with bigger deals of IAF...

    Next one year should see the Merry Go round of IAF acquisitions either ending or spiraling to a much bigger one. Lets hope sanity prevails with all...

    -------------
    Will update when i hear and see some progress

    Thanks for reading.. please feel free to comment and vote as well.
     
  2. proud_indian

    proud_indian FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2017
    Messages:
    67
    Likes Received:
    125
    Country Flag:
    India
    My head is spinning reading this and I am only at halfway!

    This is mother of all F###ups!
     
    Inca and kiduva21 like this.
  3. proud_indian

    proud_indian FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2017
    Messages:
    67
    Likes Received:
    125
    Country Flag:
    India
    @PARIKRAMA you haven't told the status of LCA MK1-A for a while. How's the progress?
     
    PARIKRAMA likes this.
  4. ReddyMan

    ReddyMan FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2016
    Messages:
    60
    Likes Received:
    82
    Country Flag:
    India
    F-16 will be a giant waste of resources, as will an immature Su-57.

    Rafale and Tejas seem like the only way forward.

    Partner with the Americans for drones or transport jets. Lest we run into another crisis in a few years time.
     
    Inca, ashkum2278, kiduva21 and 3 others like this.
  5. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    May 12, 2017
    Messages:
    565
    Likes Received:
    327
    Country Flag:
    Canada
    Man the plan was so simple.

    SE = Tejas

    TE/MMRCA = Rafales.

    Fifth gen development with Russia = FGFA

    End result of all 3 projects combined is AMCA.

    Thanks to delays with HAL, contract troubles with Dassault and Russia screwing India we get this clusterfuck.
     
    Inca, kiduva21, Angel Eyes and 3 others like this.
  6. Picdelamirand-oil

    Picdelamirand-oil Lt. Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    8,039
    Likes Received:
    5,836
    Country Flag:
    France
    How is it possible that F-35 is considered? They believe Lokheed propaganda?
    So look at just a small computation.
    Total cost of US F-35 program is said $ 1500 billions, where 400 is for procurement of 2443 F-35 and 1100 for operational life of the same plane. Now I suppose the operational life to be 60 years (we suppose they fix structural defaults :azn:). It means that you will spend $ 7.5 Millions by year and by plane! Suppose that was the same for Rafale the cost for 5 years and for 36 Rafale would be minimum $ 1350 Millions. One Billion more than the cost in the Dassault deal!
     
    kiduva21, GuardianRED and PARIKRAMA like this.
  7. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    May 12, 2017
    Messages:
    565
    Likes Received:
    327
    Country Flag:
    Canada
    Gotta factor in inflation.
     
    GuardianRED likes this.
  8. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,482
    Likes Received:
    7,054
    Country Flag:
    India
    Its an ongoing process.. The industrial challenges galore a lot. We have been small significant progress in getting first the ecosystem in place for 16 jets per year productivity.

    The systems and sub systems are progressing well but overall the timeline looks a bit difficult to meet for the first prototype to roll out by early 2019.

    The initial proto will sport a GE engine and then switch to kaveri (if available) at a later date bu internally Mk1A is targeted with Kaveri only.
     
  9. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Angel or Devil? Staff Member ADMINISTRATOR

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,482
    Likes Received:
    7,054
    Country Flag:
    India
    The chief problem being
    1. The believe LM presentation even if they are in-accurate can help make TASL a aerospace behemoth (a hope for sure).
    2. Challenges of understanding of also plagues our MOD - one section who wishes to have more of superficial effect like a F35 in IAF making adversaries clear of India - USA- Israel - Japan axis and dissuading them of any mis-adventure
    3. Neglect of roles is a prime challenge.. the role of F35 gets complemented with a large numbers of F16, F15 SE and F22 .. Thereby the F35 comes into mission much later which is not going to happen in Indian scenario as the MMRCA requirements includes specific mission which are not best suited for F35 (at present state)
    If we see whats the chief criteria for the SP to be selected, few pre requisites include
    • Availability of hangar and land space
    • Experience in production of system/components
    • Availability of machining/processing facilities for composites
    As you see these are more of industrial nature and is basically tailor made for one entity.

    Moreover, the OEM selected must focus on the following points of evaluation
    • Range, depth and scope of tech transfer
    • Indigenous content proposed and localisation plan
    • Extent of ecosystem development proposed for Indian MIC
    • Measures to support SP in establishing systems for integration of platforms
    • Future R&D planned in India
    • Plans to train skilled manpower

    In all these cases @Picdelamirand-oil inspite of other options like future Gripen M, the whole circus of show based effect of a american warplane in subcontinent with India creates fear in China and Pakistan.

    For Rafale the IN order is as important as IAF. Unfortunately, DRAL is not making too much noise as Dassault is not PR savvy.

    Also as i have always suggested to you and @halloweene , DRAL and team Dassault should have tied up with LCA program by Eric Trappier directly requesting MOD and French Prez telling Indian PM about the same. That would have helped a lot. with Indian DRAL making components and also supporting LCA ecosystem.

    This trick was done by LM and suggested that internally LCA Mk2 will be modelled and made better and Indian MOD fall for the same.
     
  10. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2016
    Messages:
    1,256
    Likes Received:
    1,724
    Country Flag:
    United States
    Wow, this is incredibly depressing.
     
    Angel Eyes and GuardianRED like this.
  11. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    May 12, 2017
    Messages:
    565
    Likes Received:
    327
    Country Flag:
    Canada
  12. Angel Eyes

    Angel Eyes 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2017
    Messages:
    104
    Likes Received:
    121
    Country Flag:
    India
    Excellent title...It really is circus......
     
    TrueGR!T likes this.
  13. Angel Eyes

    Angel Eyes 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2017
    Messages:
    104
    Likes Received:
    121
    Country Flag:
    India
    We should buy 200 rafales and use the offsets to develop Mk 2s LCA based on rafale rather than going for single engine fighter....
     
  14. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2017
    Messages:
    1,721
    Likes Received:
    4,166
    Country Flag:
    India

    Where is the fund for purchase? If they buy in that figure, how will they write off farm loans of 'poor' farmers? (Forget that the actual needy never gets a loan from the banks and is crushed under unregulated sector loans being granted by shylocks and loan sharks).
     
  15. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2013
    Messages:
    10,421
    Likes Received:
    5,436
    I don't know why @PARIKRAMA has penned an article full of gloom and doom.

    We have signed the Rafale deal for 36. We may get 36 more by 2025. And then we will get 123 LCAs by 2025. That's a potential 159-195 jets. This is only from 2016 to 2025. That's a squadron a year for 9 years.

    From 2000 to 2020, we got 10 M-2000s, 37 Jaguars and will get 272 MKIs. That's a total of 319 jets. That's a little less than a squadron a year.

    After 2025, right up to 2037, we will start inducting anywhere between 2 and 3 squadrons a year on average for the IAF alone.
     

Share This Page