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The Modi government has a new model for managing Kashmir

Discussion in 'Internal Affairs' started by layman, Apr 15, 2017.

  1. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Kashmir has been on the boil since last July when security forces shot protesting civilians heading to the funeral of Burhan Wani, a Hizbul Mujahideen militant – setting off a cycle of violence during which, according to one account, “96 people were killed, more than 12,000 injured, 1,000 lost their vision in one eye after being hit by pellets and five were blinded”. Thousands of youth have also been reportedly arrested in recent months.

    The anger has not abated and starkly manifests itself periodically. The latest instance was during the Srinagar by-election on April 9 when hundreds of youth marched to polling booths, took some of them over, pelted stones and confronted armed security forces who in turn used live ammunition on them. A chilling video of a stone-pelting youth shot by armed security forces is now circulating on social media. Eight civilians were killed that day and around 200 injured. Only 7 percent turned out to vote; a repoll in 38 polling stations on April 13 saw only a two percent turnout.

    This has shocked some observers in Delhi, if not the Narendra Modi government. Liberal commentators are imploring the government to try a different approach before it is too late. Politicians such as National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah and Congress leader P Chidambaram have said that India is “losing Kashmir” because of its “muscular policy”.

    Mainstream commentators are disturbed because they probably sense in recent developments a sign that the model of managing Kashmir (that has served Delhi well over the decades) no longer works. The key tenets of this model, as gleaned from recurring patterns in the past, are that well-attended Assembly and Lok Sabha elections are important as they provide India with a measure of legitimacy abroad and counter Pakistani propaganda. This model also views state governments as important since they act as buffers that absorb much of the Valley’s critique against the Centre. To this end, governments – be they of the National Conference or the PDP – can maintain a measure of critical distance from Delhi; they will criticise the Union government on occasion and use state funds for patron-client relationships that help them win elections. Chief ministers from mainstream parties will chair meetings with security agencies but be powerless to oppose measures that target civilian populations. The NC and PDP can call for the repeal of AFSPA but will be ignored by the ministry of defence. Their role, as the establishment prefers it, is to keep up the anticipatory atmospherics of a solution by calling for autonomy or self-rule, improved India-Pakistan ties and talks with separatists while the agencies and security forces proceed with their machinations.

    Mainstream parties, to be sure, have been struggling with weak legitimacy for years now but at least they had the assurance of being outcomes of a democratic process. Now that justification is gone and with it the political order that Delhi has established appears passé, as angry youth, men and women, refuse to engage with it. The Valley is seething – the deaths of teenagers and the presence of those blinded by pellet guns are a constant spur to maintain political purity and distance from India and those working for its institutions.

    Ordinarily, this would alarm Delhi as there’s a palpable loss of control and India’s image abroad at stake. But the Centre appears unperturbed and is maintaining its aggressive line. There has been no real regret about civilian casualties; instead home minister Rajnath Singh has ominously suggested that India “will see a transformed Kashmir in a year. No matter how the change occurs, one thing is certain, that there will be a change in Kashmir in a year’s time.” He also said those pelting stones “will have to face the consequences.” In February, army chief Bipin Rawat warned youth in Kashmir saying “those who obstruct our operations during encounters and are not supportive will be treated as overground workers of terrorists.” He said “they may survive today but we will get them tomorrow. Our relentless operations will continue.”

    One can infer from all this that the counter-insurgency tactics preferred by national security adviser Ajit Doval continue to hold sway in the halls of government. The key elements of the Doval doctrine (as discussed elsewhere) suggest that India must not back down in the face of “totally murderous” stone-pelting attacks, that security forces are “totally justified” in using the force they do and that India’s objective must be to change the “mindset” of Pakistan and Kashmir through the exercise of power. The idea is to establish full territorial dominance in Kashmir by quashing protests so that Pakistan comes to terms with India’s resolve and separatists renounce links with Islamabad.

    Another crucial element of the Doval doctrine is the assumption that mainstream parties in Kashmir work at cross-purposes with Delhi. An objective of state policy, according to him, should be to prevent Kashmiris from airing their grievances about jobs and development in political terms. Mainstream parties stand in the way of this objective because they talk of autonomy and self-rule and thus turn the minds of Kashmiris towards political questions, which Delhi should not encourage. The NSA has argued that mainstream parties talk up the power of the separatists to extract concessions from Delhi but that they also do not provide political cover to India when Delhi needs it. They can in effect “loot and scoot” with Delhi’s money because central institutions have no remit in Kashmir owing to its special status in the Constitution.

    The Modi government evidently wants a new approach and has settled on a policy that combines (a) harsh crackdowns on agitating youth (b) initiatives that undermine mainstream parties, notwithstanding the PDP-BJP alliance, and (c) taking Kashmir out of the India-Pakistan equation. The last two elements have been achieved to a significant extent; what remains is the act of disciplining Kashmir, which we are likely to see more of in times ahead.

    The success of such an approach is not a given; nationalist sentiment is rarely snuffed out by purely military force but Delhi will be “compelled” to stick with the policy as protests continue. Such a policy also has its political uses, since the flawed counterinsurgency strategy — and the reactions it will generate in the Valley and in Delhi by way of charged media narratives – also neatly dovetails with the BJP’s goal of polarising India on religious lines. In other words, Kashmiris will continue to resist, influential sections of the Indian media will continue to represent them as saboteurs inspired by Pakistan in ways that rallies support for the BJP’s strong-arm tactics, while glossing over the shooting of unarmed civilians. The up and down cycles of civilian uprisings in Kashmir will thus serve to periodically infuse nationalist sentiment in India’s body politic.

    All this means that the source of legitimacy for the Indian state in Kashmir has now changed. It used to be about international recognition of the electoral process in J&K; now it is about disciplining the Valley for internal audiences and setting set the stage for assimilationist endeavours in the future. India has little need to bother with international reactions as it buys weapons and offers market access so that countries dare not offer opinions on Kashmir. If Kashmir endured the hypocrisy of the Congress years it is now having to live with the consequence of being central to the project of turning India into a majoritarian state.

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  2. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    if you attack the armed forces of nation if you deprive the people from their right of free choice in election by violence, if you support the terrorist... you are on the wrong side of barrel and should not question others why bullets killed you..

    and this is equal for 1.25 billion people of India.. if anyone of us go against nation he is traitor and will get a traitors death..
    and traitors should be killed till none remain.
     
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  3. SrNair

    SrNair Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Enough of these bloody hypocrites like PDP and separatists .
    When their leaders and family fully enjoy the benefits of being a citizen in Indian Republic ,the poor Kashmiris is suffering .
    I hope we will get absolute majority in 2019 ,then we will have an option to neutralize 370 article .

    At the next instant we will fill the valley with rest of Indians.
     
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  4. A_poster

    A_poster Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    This points to abolition of Art370, once BJP get majority in Rajya Sabha, next year. The time limit of a year is a strong pointer towards that.


    Actually, Nationalist movements are easily snuffed out by application of force. It is just that there is no one left to tell tales about them as winners write history.

    I could bet that most people on this forum has never heard about Chams. (Most because some have read my posts on other forum and are members here also).

    Also add that there is zero support for any Islamic insurgency among non-muslims, and India could be least bothered about reaction of NGOs and Islamic states.
     
  5. HariPrasad

    HariPrasad Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I think the main problem with Kashmiris is that only Muslims have remained in valley after cleansing of Hindus and constant bombardment of provoking slogans and incitement by Pakistni paid Mullahs. If we cancel Article 370 and make other people reside with them than they too will be learn something from Hindus and slowy become less radicalized like Muslims in Other part of India.
     
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  6. NKVD

    NKVD 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Here is New Model in Display
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2017
  7. The Lockean

    The Lockean 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    ??
     
  8. Bregs

    Bregs 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Governor rule must be declared in J&K, The situation has gone worse during PDP-BJP alliance. Time to appoint some Gary Saxena governor to stable things out for some time
     
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  9. The Lockean

    The Lockean 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    And why? Do you not find similarity of mismanagement resulting in internal security threats in multiple Indian States? Are Chattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Maharashtra and UP any different in terms of threat to Indian security? Are North East states not similarly affected?

    So, do you propose desolution of Indian Democratic system? Then what system comes? Autocracy? Who rules? What checks and balances are in play??
     
  10. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Abolish Article 370 or create a amendment to allow Indian Investments and Owning the Businesses and properties....
    Just see how all these skirmishes disappear. Pak has amended their COnstitution to including POK under Pak in spite of having no rights.

    This state require either of 2 things....

    a. Either development by integrating into India not as a Special state.

    Reasons, Indian Investments and Business will rise up the living standards where people will be more busy in their own development then think of these Anti-Nationalist movements.

    or

    b. Take out the political establishments of the state and Infuse Governor Rule

    Reasons, Atleast this will give enough leeway for the Indian forces to stave of this stupidity of the Stone pelters, Anti-Nationalist elements.
     
  11. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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  12. NKVD

    NKVD 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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  13. NKVD

    NKVD 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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  14. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    This is how jihadi pelters behave,same as their brothers from Palestine

     
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